Predicting how many animals will be where: how to build, calibrate and evaluate individual-based models

Individual-based models (IBMs) can simulate the actions of individual animals as they interact with one another and the landscape in which they live. When used in spatially-explicit landscapes IBMs can show how populations change over time in response to management actions. For instance, IBMs are being used to design strategies of conservation and of the exploitation of fisheries, and for assessing the effects on populations of major construction projects and of novel agricultural chemicals. In such real world contexts, it becomes especially important to build IBMs in a principled fashion, and to approach calibration and evaluation systematically. We argue that insights from physiological and behavioural ecology offer a recipe for building realistic models, and that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a promising technique for the calibration and evaluation of IBMs. IBMs are constructed primarily from knowledge about individuals. In ecological applications the relevant knowledge is found in physiological and behavioural ecology, and we approach these from an evolutionary perspective by taking into account how physiological and behavioural processes contribute to life histories, and how those life histories evolve. Evolutionary life history theory shows that, other things being equal, organisms should grow to sexual maturity as fast as possible, and then reproduce as fast as possible, while minimising per capita death rate. Physiological and behavioural ecology are largely built on these principles together with the laws of conservation of matter and energy. To complete construction of an IBM information is also needed on the effects of competitors, conspecifics and food scarcity; the maximum rates of ingestion, growth and reproduction, and life-history parameters. Using this knowledge about physiological and behavioural processes provides a principled way to build IBMs, but model parameters vary between species and are often difficult to measure. A common solution is to manually compare model outputs with observations from real landscapes and so to obtain parameters which produce acceptable fits of model to data. However, this procedure can be convoluted and lead to over-calibrated and thus inflexible models. Many formal statistical techniques are unsuitable for use with IBMs, but we argue that ABC offers a potential way forward. It can be used to calibrate and compare complex stochastic models and to assess the uncertainty in their predictions. We describe methods used to implement ABC in an accessible way and illustrate them with examples and discussion of recent studies. Although much progress has been made, theoretical issues remain, and some of these are outlined and discussed.

The pitfalls of ecological forecasting

Ecological forecasting is difficult but essential, because reactive management results in corrective actions that are often too late to avert significant environmental damage. Here, we appraise different forecasting methods with a particular focus on the modelling of species populations. We show how simple extrapolation of current trends in state is often inadequate because environmental drivers change in intensity over time and new drivers emerge. However, statistical models, incorporating relationships with drivers, simply offset the prediction problem, requiring us to forecast how the drivers will themselves change over time. Some authors approach this problem by focusing in detail on a single driver, whilst others use ‘storyline’ scenarios, which consider projected changes in a wide range of different drivers. We explain why both approaches are problematic and identify a compromise to model key drivers and interactions along with possible response options to help inform environmental management. We also highlight the crucial role of validation of forecasts using independent data. Although these issues are relevant for all types of ecological forecasting, we provide examples based on forecasts for populations of UK butterflies. We show how a high goodness-of-fit for models used to calibrate data is not sufficient for good forecasting. Long-term biological recording schemes rather than experiments will often provide data for ecological forecasting and validation because these schemes allow capture of landscape-scale land-use effects and their interactions with other drivers.

Incorporation of different and changing client interests in the course of a project

There is a widespread assumption that clients’ expectations should be accommodated during a building project. However, there may be conflicting expectations within a client organization and these may change over time in the course of a project. Actor-Network Theory (ANT) is used to study the incorporation of client expectations into the on-going development of a building project. To illustrate this, negotiations over a particular decision, namely the location of a building on one university campus was analysed. Negotiations went through a number of stages, involving a master plan architect, members of the public, campus maps and the Vice Chancellor. An ANT analysis helped to trace diverse actors' interests in a series of discussions and how these interests conflict with each other as one option was chosen over another. The analysis revealed new client interests in each negotiation process. Also, the prioritisation of client interests changed over time. The documentation of diverse and dynamic client interests especially contributes to the understanding of how some client interests fail to be incorporated in decision-making processes

Tracing client interests in the course of a project: why are some client interests incorporated whereas others are not?

Many construction professionals and policy-makers would agree that client expectations should be accommodated during a building project. However, this aspiration is not easy to deal with as there may be conflicting interests within a client organization and these may change over time in the course of a project. This research asks why some client interests, and not others, are incorporated into the development of a building project. Actor-Network Theory (ANT) is used to study a single building project on a University campus. The building project is analysed as a number of discussions and negotiations, in which actors persuade each other to choose one solution over another. The analysis traces dynamic client engagement in decision-making processes as available options became increasingly constrained. However, this relative loss of control was countered by clients who continued the control over the timing of participants' involvement, and thus the way to impose their interests even at the later stage of the project.

Reinsurance in Brazil: what happened to prices?

Neste estudo investigamos a mudança no Brasil de um mercado fechado monopolista de resseguros para um mercado aberto. O foco tem sido sobre os prêmios, como a queda nos preços foi um dos benefícios mais antecipados da nova estrutura do mercado. Para comparar os preços de resseguro entre mercados o Índice Combinado foi usado. Ao comparar o Brasil ao Resto do Mundo, Índices Combinados significativamente menores foram observados para 2001 - 2007. No período 2008 - 2010, após a abertura, parece ter sido uma convergência dos Índices Combinados com os níveis no mundo. Confirma que os preços de resseguro eram altos no passado, e que ocorreu uma queda nos preços desde a abertura. No entanto estas conclusões devem ser tratados com alguma precaução uma vez que apenas 2,5 anos de experiência está disponível desde a abertura do mercado e outros fatores podem ter influenciado a evolução dos preços observados.

Antitruste: sanção de desinvestimentos em ativos: um estudo de caso no processo administrativo no 08012.11142/2006-79

O presente trabalho é um estudo de caso, tendo como objetivo principal avaliar a sanção de desinvestimentos de ativos, isto é, a pena de cisão de sociedade, transferência de controle societário e/ou venda de ativos, conforme disposto no art. 38, inciso V, da Lei no 12.529/2011 (Lei de Defesa da Concorrência). Para tanto, parte-se da exposição da decisão proferida pelo Tribunal do Conselho Administrativo de Defesa Econômica (Cade) no Processo Administrativo no 08012.011142/2006-79, denominado Cartel de Cimento e Concreto. Tal decisão condenou as empresas fabricantes de cimento e prestadoras de serviços de concretagem a desinvestirem ativos próprios, frutos de aquisição ou de crescimento orgânico. É importante destacar que essa decisão sofreu relevante modificação ao longo do julgamento, decorrente da alteração de entendimento pelos conselheiros do Cade. Em um segundo momento, o trabalho procura propiciar ao leitor uma visão ampla (prós e contras) dos tipos de remédios ou sanções existentes e aplicáveis aos casos em que se determina a medida de desinvestimento, por meio da seleção de alguns casos internacionais e nacionais, escolhidos a partir de casos amplamente tratados pela doutrina, e também citados no julgamento do Processo Administrativo no 08012.011142/2006-79. A seguir, aborda-se a questão do desinvestimento específico ocorrido no Processo Administrativo no 08012.011142/2006-79, buscando-se evidenciar, a partir da análise do aparente choque dos votos do conselheiro-relator e do conselheiro-revisor, que as bases utilizadas para determinação dos desinvestimentos carecem de parâmetros concretos para sua aplicação. Ao final do estudo acerca do desinvestimento, delineia-se uma proposição para solução jurídica. Ao final, conclui-se que a aplicação de medidas de desinvestimentos como penalização por participação em cartel não é escolha fácil, e sua utilização tampouco é pacífica, devendo-se levar em conta alguns aspectos relevantes para que possa ser utilizada de maneira legítima e garantir a sua melhor eficácia.

A palavra cantada nos espaços intersubjetivos de um centro de atenção psisossocial do município do Natal/RN

The psychiatric care and mental health are undergoing constant change over the History. The Brazilian Psychiatric Reform, which brings up the deinstitutionalization as a structuring in the restorative care process. The Reform has as one of the mainly substitutive services the Centers for Psychosocial Care (CAPS), which work from the Singular Therapeutic Project (PTS) in order to restore the autonomy and restore the dignity of users. The therapeutic workshop is some of the resources used and work several kinds of activities as: writing, handcraft, music, poetry, and so forth. This study set up to apprehend the social representations of helping of the music workshop carried out in the CAPS II east of Natal/RN, from the reports given by the participants of the workshop, using the focal group as technique. This is a descriptive exploratory study with a qualitative approach. A total of 16 users participated in four musical therapeutic workshops from April to May 2010. The study was approved by the Ethics and Research Committee of UFRN. The discursive material from the workshop was submitted to the informational resource of Analyse Lexicale par Contexte d um Ensemble de Segments de Texte, ALCESTE, and analyzed based on the Theory of Representations and the Central Core Theory. The majority of subjects were men (62.5%), single (62.5%), aged 40-49 years (37.6%) and elementary school level (56.2 %). The reports were transcribed and submitted to the classification system of ALCESTE, which elected the following categories: Category 1 - Experience in the Word Family Sung, Category 2 - Musical Experiences and Approaches, and Category 3 - Feelings and emotions evoked by music. The representation of these individuals is anchored in the experience they have with the CAPS, lived and socialized by common sense, through this particular social group workshop objectified in music therapy as a therapeutic modality enjoyable. The central core revealed the intrinsic relationship between users and the music, establishing a relationship of openness to use the same while its therapeutic use in workshops of substitute services for mental health. Peripherals elements issues are related to listen, share and experience music in the family. Intermediary Elements relate to the feelings and emotions evoked by music, given her close relationship with it. It was found in the study that music can be construed as an artifact of good therapeutic responsiveness to users, configuring it as an invigorating and enjoyable therapy, confirming the need for continuity of this activity, as well as its expansion into the service

Effects of epidural administration of dexmedetomidine on the minimum alveolar concentration of isoflurane in dogs

Objective-To evaluate the effects of epidural administration of 3 doses of dexmedetomidine on isoflurane minimum alveolar concentration (MAC) and characterize changes in bispectral index (BIS) induced by nociceptive stimulation used for MAC determination in dogs.Animals-6 adult dogs.Procedures-Isoflurane-anesthetized dogs received physiologic saline (0.9% NaCl) solution (control treatment) or dexmedetomidine (1.5 [DEX1.5], 3.0 [DEX3], or 6.0 [DEX6] mu g/kg) epidurally in a crossover study. Isoflurane MAC (determined by use of electrical nociceptive stimulation of the hind limb) was targeted to be accomplished at 2 and 4.5 hours. Changes in BIS attributable to nociceptive stimulation and cardiopulmonary data were recorded at each MAC determination.Results-With the control treatment, mean +/- SD MAC values did not change over time (1.57 +/- 0.23% and 1.55 +/- 0.25% at 2 and 4.5 hours, respectively). Compared with the control treatment, MAC was significantly lower at 2 hours (13% reduction) but not at 4.5 hours (7% reduction) in DEX1.5-treated dogs and significantly lower at 2 hours (29% reduction) and 4.5 hours (13% reduction) in DEX3-treated dogs. The DEX6 treatment yielded the greatest MAC reduction (31 % and 22% at 2 and 4.5 hours, respectively). During all treatments, noxious stimulation increased BIS; but changes in BIS were correlated with increases in electromyographic activity.Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-In dogs, epidural administration of dexmedetomidine resulted in dose-dependent decreases in isoflurane MAC and that effect decreased over time, Changes in BIS during MAC determinations may not represent increased awareness because of the possible interference of electromyographic activity.

Three-year follow-up study of respiratory and systemic manifestations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Quadro clínico do transtorno obsessivo-compulsivo

Obsessive-compulsive disorder is a very heterogeneous condition, not always easy to be identified. Obsessions are intrusive thoughts, impulses or images that cause anxiety or other emotional discomfort, whereas compulsions are repetitive behaviors or mental acts voluntarily performed to counterbalance or minimize the discomfort, or magically prevent any feared events. The most common symptoms are contamination, aggressive, somatic and sexual obsessions and washing, checking, repeating, counting and ordering compulsions. Patients usually have multiple symptoms simultaneously, which often change over time. Although the insight is typically preserved, it varies among patients and also fluctuates in the same patient in different ocasions. The main features are: exacerbated appraisal of risks, pathological doubts and incompleteness, as well as excessive sense of responsibility and guilt and thought/action fusion. As patients frequently feel ashamed of their symptoms, they can be reticent about them. Consequently, it usually takes time till they get adequate treatment.

Gingival recession associated with noncarious cervical lesions: Combined periodontal-restorative approach and the treatment of long-term esthetic complications

The combined periodontalrestorative approach (that is, a connective tissue graft for root coverage and NCCL restoration with RMGI cement) has demonstrated significant root coverage and a good esthetic outcome. In some cases, though, the color of an RMGI restoration can change over time, compromising esthetics. In this situation, applying composite resin over an RMGI restoration can be a conservative approach to satisfy the patient's esthetic complaint. Long-term observation is necessary to evaluate the stability of the results and establish the success of this approach over time.

Predictive formulas for food base excess and urine pH estimations of cats

Food base excess (BE, mEq/kg) can be calculated from the diet macroelements, together with either the sulfur amino acids methionine and cysteine (BEaa) or total sulfur (BEs) concentrations. The present study compared the use of sulfur or methionine and cysteine for calculating the food BE (experiment 1) and investigated the influence of food BE on blood gas analysis and the urine pH of cats, and proposes a prediction equation to estimate the urine pH of cats fed kibble diets based on the calculated food BE (experiments 2 and 3). In experiment 1, nine healthy, adult cats were used in a change-over design and fed with nine commercial dry cat foods. The cats were housed in metabolism cages over seven days for adaptation and three days for total urine collection. All of the urine produced over 24h was pooled by cat and diet. The cats' acid-base status was assessed through blood gas analysis after 10 days of diet consumption. A mean difference of -115mEq/kg between BEs and BEaa was observed, which could be explained by a greater concentration of sulfur in the whole diet than in methionine and cysteine. Urine pH presented a stronger correlation with food BEs (R2=0.95; P<0.001) than with food BEaa (R2=0.86; P<0.001). Experiment 2 included 30 kibble diets, and each diet was tested in six cats. The food BEs varied between -180 and +307mEq/kg, and the urine pH of the cats varied between 5.60 and 7.74. A significant correlation was found between the measured urine pH and the food BEs (urinary pH=6.269+[0.0036×BEs]+[0.000003×BEs2]; R2=0.91; P<0.001). In experiment 3, eight kibble diets were tested (food BEs between -187mEq/kg and +381mEq/kg) to validate the equation proposed in experiment 2 and to compare the obtained results with previously published formulae. The results of the proposed formula presented a high concordance correlation coefficient (0.942) and high accuracy (0.979) with the measured values, and the estimates of urine pH did not differ from the values obtained in cats (P>0.05). The cats' venous blood pH, bicarbonate, and blood BE were correlated with food BEs (P<0.001); the consumption of diets with low food BEs induced a reduction in these parameters. In conclusion, food macroelement composition has a strong influence on cats' acid-base equilibrium and food BEs calculation is a useful tool to formulate and balance kibble diets for felines. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Teores de carbono e nitrogênio dos solos de duas microbacias hidrográficas com diferentes usos da terra no município de Ibiúna-SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Validação farmacológica da preferência claro-escuro em Danio rerio

A ansiedade é uma desordem complexa e com grande relevância clínica, cujo estudo com modelos animais é importante para pesquisar sobre seus mecanismos e drogas para o seu tratamento. O zebrafish figura como um potencial modelo animal para pesquisas farmacológicas da ansiedade. Um modelo de ansiedade é a preferência claro-escuro, que já foi validado comportamentalmente em zebrafish, contudo necessita de uma validação farmacológica. Objetiva-se descrever a sensibilidade da preferência claro-escuro em zebrafish adultos para as drogas mais utilizadas na clínica da ansiedade, foram administradas pela imersão do animal na solução: Benzodiazepínicos (Clonazepam); Agonistas parciais 5-HT1A (Buspirona); Antidepressivo tricíclico (Imipramina); Antidepressivo ISRS (Fluoxetina e Paroxetina); Antipsicóticos (Haloperidol e Risperidona); Psicostimulante (Dietilpropiona); Beta bloqueadores (Propranolol) e Depressores do SNC (Etanol). Os parâmetros analisados foram o tempo despendido pelo animal no ambiente escuro, o tempo da primeira latência e número de alternâncias. O clonazepam administrado por 300s aumentou o tempo no escuro na menor concentração e reduziu a atividade locomotora, a administração durante 600s da concentração intermediária diminuiu o tempo no escuro e da primeira latência, assim como aumentou a atividade locomotora, indicando efeito ansiolítico. A buspirona aumentou o tempo de permanência no escuro provavelmente devido a redução da atividade motora. A imipramina e a fluoxetina aumentaram o tempo no escuro e da primeira latência e diminuíram o número de alternâncias, indicando ação ansiogênica. A paroxetina não alterou o tempo no escuro, entretanto aumentou o tempo da primeira latência e diminuiu a atividade locomotora. O haloperidol diminuiu a ansiedade na menor concentração, curiosamente aumentou a atividade motora na maior concentração, ao contrário da risperidona que diminuiu a atividade na maior concentração. A dietilpropriona não modificou o tempo no escuro, mas aumentou o tempo da primeira latência e diminuiu a atividade motora apenas na menor concentração. O propranolol reduziu somente o tempo no escuro. O etanol foi efetivo na redução da ansiedade com a concentração intermediária e diminuiu a atividade locomotora em uma concentração menor Os dados corroboram com relatos da literatura em Danio rerio tanto neste modelo em administração intraperitoneal como em outros modelos por administração hídrica e em roedores, quando foi possível a comparação.

A ictiofauna e a atividade pesqueira na Ilha das Onças, Barcarena - Pará

A Ilha das Onças é uma das numerosas ilhas que se encontram na margem esquerda da Baía do Guajará, sendo conhecida principalmente pela presença da palmeira que produz o açaí como fruto (Euterpe oleracea,) e pela importância que seus canais representam para a navegação regional. Entre os principais canais que compõem a ilha, destaca-se o Canal do Piramanha, que atravessa a Ilha das Onças. A composição e a distribuição da ictiofauna presente na Ilha é pouco conhecida, com base nisso, esse trabalho teve como objetivo descrever as espécies da região, bem como do seu uso pelo ambiente, e a importância que possuem para a população local. Foram feitas entrevistas com os pescadores onde foram obtidas informações básicas sobre a pesca no local. Foram realizadas pescarias trimestrais de acordo com os períodos climáticos com rede de tapagem no igarapé e de emalhe no canal. No momento da despesca foram registrados in situ os dados abióticos (pH, salinidade, temperatura), que não apresentaram diferenças entre os períodos. Foram capturados 1200 indivíduos de 20 famílias de maioria Aspredinidae, Sciaenidae e Pimelodidae, distribuídos em 39 espécies identificadas (27 no canal e 26 no igarapé). As espécies foram em sua maioria constantes (FO>75%), e a diversidade foi similar ao longo do tempo, não havendo espécies dominantes em nenhum período de coleta. A estatística W mostra ambientes perturbados, nos meses mais chuvosos de março e dezembro, onde também foram registrados as maiores abundâncias (CPUEn e CPUEb), indicando a análise pode não ser adequada a ambientes onde há dominância de indivíduos de pequeno porte, fazendo com que o método confunda a existência natural de grande quantidade de indivíduos pequenos com uma troca de dominância. As análises multivariadas mostraram que os ambientes são significativamente diferentes, principalmente pela grande abundância numérica de A. aspredo no canal, e da P. squamosissimus no igarapé, que juntamente com o L. dorsalis, o H. marginatus, o A. aff. ucayalensis formam as principais espécies capturadas na Ilha. No canal houve maioria de espécies estuarinas, que se alimentam principalmente de zoobentos e peixes, e no igarapé, houve dominância de espécies dulcícolas, cujas preferências alimentares mudam ao longo do ano, aparentemente de acordo com o regime de chuvas. De maneira geral as espécies são de pequeno e médio porte (CT < 30 cm), imaturas (maioria em estádio A) e alimentando-se em pelo menos um período do ano. Apesar do ambiente favorável a pesca, 90% dos entrevistados tem no açaí sua principal fonte de renda, sendo a pesca colocada como fonte secundária, baseada nos períodos de safra e entre safra do açaí. A principal arte de pesca é o matapi que tem como alvo o camarão da Amazônia (Macrobachium amazonicum), seguida das malhadeiras e tapagens, cujas espécies alvo são na sua maioria as mesmas capturadas em abundancia nesse estudo. Pelo pequeno porte e baixo valor econômico, a pesca na ilha é realizada principalmente como fonte suplementar de proteínas, visto que a intensa atividade pesqueira e a perturbação causada pelas embarcações diminuem ainda mais esse número.