Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Clinical and molecular epidemiology of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli as a cause of nosocomial infection or colonization: implications for control.

BACKGROUND: Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing members of the Enterobacteriaceae family are important nosocomial pathogens. Escherichia coli producing a specific family of ESBL (the CTX-M enzymes) are emerging worldwide. The epidemiology of these organisms as causes of nosocomial infection is poorly understood. The aims of this study were to investigate the clinical and molecular epidemiology of nosocomial infection or colonization due to ESBL-producing E. coli in hospitalized patients, consider the specific types of ESBLs produced, and identify the risk factors for infection and colonization with these organisms. METHODS: All patients with nosocomial colonization and/or infection due to ESBL-producing E. coli in 2 centers (a tertiary care hospital and a geriatric care center) identified between January 2001 and May 2002 were included. A double case-control study was performed. The clonal relatedness of the isolates was studied by repetitive extragenic palindromic-polymerase chain reaction and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. ESBLs were characterized by isoelectric focusing, polymerase chain reaction, and sequencing. RESULTS: Forty-seven case patients were included. CTX-M-producing E. coli were clonally unrelated and more frequently susceptible to nonoxyimino-beta-lactams. Alternately, isolates producing SHV- and TEM-type ESBL were epidemic and multidrug resistant. Urinary catheterization was a risk factor for both CTX-M-producing and SHV-TEM-producing isolates. Previous oxyimino-beta-lactam use, diabetes, and ultimately fatal or nonfatal underlying diseases were independent risk factors for infection or colonization with CTX-M-producing isolates, whereas previous fluoroquinolone use was associated with infection or colonization with SHV-TEM-producing isolates. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiology of ESBL-producing E. coli as a cause of nosocomial infection is complex. Sporadic CTX-M-producing isolates coexisted with epidemic multidrug-resistant SHV-TEM-producing isolates. These data should be taken into account for the design of control measures.

Y-90 Ibritumomab Tiuxetan (Zevalin (R)) Consolidation of First Remission In Advanced Stage Follicular Non Hodgkin's Lymphoma Updated Results After a Median Follow up of 662 Months From the International, Randomized, Phase III First Line Indolent Trial (FIT) In 414 Patients

The FIT trial was conducted to evaluate the safety and efficacy of 90Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan (0.4 mCi/kg; maximum dose 32 mCi) when used as consolidation of first complete or partial remission in patients with previously untreated, advanced-stage follicular lymphoma (FL). Patients were randomly assigned to either 90Y-ibritumomab treatment (n = 207) or observation (n = 202) within 3 months (mo) of completing initial induction therapy (chemotherapy only: 86%; rituximab in combination with chemotherapy: 14%). Response status prior to randomization did not differ between the groups: 52% complete response (CR)/CR unconfirmed (CRu) to induction therapy and 48% partial response (PR) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 53% CR/CRu and 44% PR in the control arm. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) of the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Results from the first extended follow-up after a median of 3.5 years revealed a significant improvement in PFS from the time of randomization with 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation compared with control (36.5 vs 13.3 mo, respectively; P < 0.0001; Morschhauser et al. JCO. 2008; 26:5156-5164). Here we report a median follow-up of 66.2 mo (5.5 years). Five-year PFS was 47% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 29% in the control group (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.65; P < 0.0001). Median PFS in the 90Y-ibritumomab group was 49 mo vs 14 mo in the control group. In patients achieving a CR/CRu after induction, 5-year PFS was 57% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group, and the median had not yet been reached at 92 months, compared with a 43% 5-year PFS in the control group and a median of 31 mo (HR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.89). For patients in PR after induction, the 5-year PFS was 38% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group with a median PFS of 30 mo vs 14% in the control group with a median PFS of 6 mo (HR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.27-0.53). Patients who had received rituximab as part of induction treatment had a 5-year PFS of 64% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 48% in the control group (HR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.30-1.47). For all patients, time to next treatment (as calculated from the date of randomization) differed significantly between both groups; median not reached at 99 mo in the 90Y-ibritumomab group vs 35 mo in the control group (P < 0.0001). The majority of patients received rituximab-containing regimens when treated after progression (63/82 [77%] in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 102/122 [84%] in the control group). Overall response rate to second-line treatment was 79% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group (57% CR/CRu and 22% PR) vs 78% in the control arm (59% CR/CRu, 19% PR). Five-year overall survival was not significantly different between the groups; 93% and 89% in the 90Y-ibritumomab and control groups, respectively (P = 0.561). To date, 40 patients have died; 18 in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 22 in the control group. Secondary malignancies were diagnosed in 16 patients in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 9 patients in the control arm (P = 0.19). There were 6 (3%) cases of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS)/acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 1 MDS in the control arm (P = 0.063). In conclusion, this extended follow-up of the FIT trial confirms the benefit of 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation with a nearly 3 year advantage in median PFS. A significant 5-year PFS improvement was confirmed for patients with a CR/CRu or a PR after induction. Effective rescue treatment with rituximab-containing regimens may explain the observed no difference in overall survival between both patient groups who were - for the greater part - rituximab-naïve.

Be fit or be sick: peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors are down the road.

Investigating metabolism by unveiling the functions of the nuclear receptors peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) in the numerous intricate pathways ensuring energy homeostasis and fitness has been extremely rewarding. Major lines of research were initially determined by the first-characterized crucial roles of PPARalpha in fatty oxidation and of PPARgamma in adipocyte differentiation and lipid storage. Today, the molecular bases of the functional links between glucose, lipid, and protein metabolism, under the important but nonexclusive control of PPARalpha and PPARgamma, are starting to be uncovered. In addition, in the last couple of years evidence has been provided for an important role of PPARbeta (delta) in lipid metabolism. Inevitably, such actors of metabolic homeostasis are implicated in the physiopathology of complex metabolic disorders, such as those constituting the metabolic syndrome, resulting in atherosclerosis and cardiovascular diseases. This review presents a summary of the recent findings on their dual involvement in health and disease.

Mutations in FKBP10 cause recessive osteogenesis imperfecta and Bruck syndrome.

Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a genetic disorder of connective tissue characterized by bone fragility and alteration in synthesis and posttranslational modification of type I collagen. Autosomal dominant OI is caused by mutations in the genes (COL1A1 or COL1A2) encoding the chains of type I collagen. Bruck syndrome is a recessive disorder featuring congenital contractures in addition to bone fragility; Bruck syndrome type 2 is caused by mutations in PLOD2 encoding collagen lysyl hydroxylase, whereas Bruck syndrome type 1 has been mapped to chromosome 17, with evidence suggesting region 17p12, but the gene has remained elusive so far. Recently, the molecular spectrum of OI has been expanded with the description of the basis of a unique posttranslational modification of type I procollagen, that is, 3-prolyl-hydroxylation. Three proteins, cartilage-associated protein (CRTAP), prolyl-3-hydroxylase-1 (P3H1, encoded by the LEPRE1 gene), and the prolyl cis-trans isomerase cyclophilin-B (PPIB), form a complex that is required for fibrillar collagen 3-prolyl-hydroxylation, and mutations in each gene have been shown to cause recessive forms of OI. Since then, an additional putative collagen chaperone complex, composed of FKBP10 (also known as FKBP65) and SERPINH1 (also known as HSP47), also has been shown to be mutated in recessive OI. Here we describe five families with OI-like bone fragility in association with congenital contractures who all had FKBP10 mutations. Therefore, we conclude that FKBP10 mutations are a cause of recessive osteogenesis imperfecta and Bruck syndrome, possibly Bruck syndrome Type 1 since the location on chromosome 17 has not been definitely localized.

Alveolar overdistension as a cause of lung injury: differences among three animal species.

This study analyses characteristics of lung injuries produced by alveolar overdistension in three animal species. Mechanical ventilation at normal tidal volume (10 mL/Kg) and high tidal volume (50 mL/Kg) was applied for 30 min in each species. Data were gathered on wet/dry weight ratio, histological score, and area of alveolar collapse. Five out of six rabbits with high tidal volume developed tension pneumothorax, and the rabbit results were therefore not included in the histological analysis. Lungs from the pigs and rats showed minimal histological lesions. Pigs ventilated with high tidal volume had significantly greater oedema, higher neutrophil infiltration, and higher percentage area of alveolar collapse than rats ventilated with high tidal volume. We conclude that rabbits are not an appropriate species for in vivo studies of alveolar overdistension due to their fragility. Although some histological lesions are observed in pigs and rats, the lesions do not appear to be relevant.

Effects of a lifestyle intervention on adiposity and fitness in overweight or low fit preschoolers (Ballabeina).

OBJECTIVE: Overweight (OW) and low fit children represent cardiovascular high-risk groups. A multidimensional school-based lifestyle intervention performed in 652 preschoolers reduced skinfold thickness and waist circumference, and improved fitness, but did not affect BMI. The objective of this study is to examine whether the intervention was equally effective in OW (≥90th national percentile) and/or low fit (lowest sex- and age-adjusted quartile of aerobic fitness) children compared to their normal weight and normal fit counterparts. DESIGN AND METHODS: Cluster randomized controlled single blinded trial, conducted in 2008/09 in 40 randomly selected preschool classes in Switzerland. The intervention included a playful physical activity program and lessons on nutrition, media use and sleeps. Primary outcomes were BMI and aerobic fitness; secondary outcomes included sum of four skinfolds, waist circumference and motor agility. Modification of intervention effects by BMI-group and fitness-group was tested by interaction terms. RESULTS: Compared to their counterparts, OW children (n = 130) had more beneficial effects on waist circumference (p for interaction = 0.001) and low fit children (n = 154) more beneficial effects on all adiposity outcomes (p for interaction ≤0.03). The intervention effects on both fitness outcomes were not modified by BMI- or fitness-group (all p for interaction ≥0.2). Average intervention effect sizes for BMI were -0.12, -0.05, -0.26 and -0.02 kg/m(2) and for aerobic fitness were 0.40, 0.30, 0.12 and 0.36 stages for OW, normal weight, low fit and normal fit children, respectively. Conclusions: This multidimensional intervention was equally and for some adiposity measures even more effective in high-risk preschoolers and represents a promising option for these children.

Association of socioeconomic status with overall and cause specific mortality in the republic of seychelles : results from a cohort study in the african region

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is consistently associated with higher mortality in high income countries. Only few studies have assessed this association in low and middle income countries, mainly because of sparse reliable mortality data. This study explores SES differences in overall and cause-specific mortality in the Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the African region. METHODS: All deaths have been medically certified over more than two decades. SES and other lifestyle-related risk factors were assessed in a total of 3246 participants from three independent population-based surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Vital status was ascertained using linkage with vital statistics. Occupational position was the indicator of SES used in this study and was assessed with the same questions in the three surveys. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 15.0 years (range 0-23 years), 523 participants died (overall mortality rate 10.8 per 1000 person-years). The main causes of death were cardiovascular disease (CVD) (219 deaths) and cancer (142 deaths). Participants in the low SES group had a higher mortality risk for overall (HR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.24-2.62), CVD (HR = 1.95; 1.04-3.65) and non-cancer/non-CVD (HR = 2.14; 1.10-4.16) mortality compared to participants in the high SES group. Cancer mortality also tended to be patterned by SES (HR = 1.44; 0.76-2.75). Major lifestyle-related risk factors (smoking, heavy drinking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia) explained a small proportion of the associations between low SES and all-cause, CVD, and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study assessing social inequalities in mortality in a country of the African region, low SES (as measured by occupational position) was strongly associated with overall, CVD and non-cancer/non-CVD mortality. Our findings support the view that the burden of non-communicable diseases may disproportionally affect people with low SES in low and middle income countries.

Coxiella burnetii as a possible cause of autoimmune liver disease: a case report.

INTRODUCTION: Q fever is a zoonotic infection that may cause severe hepatitis. Q-fever hepatitis has not yet been associated with autoimmune hepatitis and/or primary biliary cirrhosis. CASE PRESENTATION: We describe a 39-year-old man of Sri Lankan origin with chronic Q-fever hepatitis who developed autoantibodies compatible with autoimmune hepatitis/primary biliary cirrhosis overlap syndrome. Ursodeoxycholic acid in addition to antibiotic therapy markedly improved hepatic enzyme levels suggesting that autoimmunity, potentially triggered by the underlying infection, was involved in the pathogenesis of liver damage. CONCLUSION: We suggest that Coxiella burnetii might trigger autoimmune liver disease. Patients with Q-fever hepatitis who respond poorly to antibiotics should be investigated for serological evidence of autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cirrhosis or overlap syndrome, as these patients could benefit from adjunctive therapy with ursodeoxycholic acid. Conversely, C. burnetii serology might be necessary in patients with autoimmune liver disease in order to exclude underlying Coxiella infection.

All-cause mortality in the cohorts of the Spanish AIDS Research Network (RIS) compared with the general population: 1997-2010.

BACKGROUND Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has produced significant changes in mortality of HIV-infected persons. Our objective was to estimate mortality rates, standardized mortality ratios and excess mortality rates of cohorts of the AIDS Research Network (RIS) (CoRIS-MD and CoRIS) compared to the general population. METHODS We analysed data of CoRIS-MD and CoRIS cohorts from 1997 to 2010. We calculated: (i) all-cause mortality rates, (ii) standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and (iii) excess mortality rates for both cohort for 100 person-years (py) of follow-up, comparing all-cause mortality with that of the general population of similar age and gender. RESULTS Between 1997 and 2010, 8,214 HIV positive subjects were included, 2,453 (29.9%) in CoRIS-MD and 5,761 (70.1%) in CoRIS and 294 deaths were registered. All-cause mortality rate was 1.02 (95% CI 0.91-1.15) per 100 py, SMR was 6.8 (95% CI 5.9-7.9) and excess mortality rate was 0.8 (95% CI 0.7-0.9) per 100 py. Mortality was higher in patients with AIDS, hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection, and those from CoRIS-MD cohort (1997-2003). CONCLUSION Mortality among HIV-positive persons remains higher than that of the general population of similar age and sex, with significant differences depending on the history of AIDS or HCV coinfection.

Lifetime alcohol use and overall and cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study.

OBJECTIVES To investigate the role of factors that modulate the association between alcohol and mortality, and to provide estimates of absolute risk of death. DESIGN The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC). SETTING 23 centres in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS 380 395 men and women, free of cancer, diabetes, heart attack or stroke at enrolment, followed up for 12.6 years on average. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES 20 453 fatal events, of which 2053 alcohol-related cancers (ARC, including cancers of upper aerodigestive tract, liver, colorectal and female breast), 4187 cardiovascular diseases/coronary heart disease (CVD/CHD), 856 violent deaths and injuries. Lifetime alcohol use was assessed at recruitment. RESULTS HRs comparing extreme drinkers (≥30 g/day in women and ≥60 g/day in men) to moderate drinkers (0.1-4.9 g/day) were 1.27 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.43) in women and 1.53 (1.39 to 1.68) in men. Strong associations were observed for ARC mortality, in men particularly, and for violent deaths and injuries, in men only. No associations were observed for CVD/CHD mortality among drinkers, whereby HRs were higher in never compared to moderate drinkers. Overall mortality seemed to be more strongly related to beer than wine use, particularly in men. The 10-year risks of overall death for women aged 60 years, drinking more than 30 g/day was 5% and 7%, for never and current smokers, respectively. Corresponding figures in men consuming more than 60 g/day were 11% and 18%, in never and current smokers, respectively. In competing risks analyses, mortality due to CVD/CHD was more pronounced than ARC in men, while CVD/CHD and ARC mortality were of similar magnitude in women. CONCLUSIONS In this large European cohort, alcohol use was positively associated with overall mortality, ARC and violent death and injuries, but marginally to CVD/CHD. Absolute risks of death observed in EPIC suggest that alcohol is an important determinant of total mortality.

A constitutively active mutant of the alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor can cause greater agonist-dependent down-regulation of the G-proteins G9 alpha and G11 alpha than the wild-type receptor.

Rat 1 fibroblasts transfected to express either the wild-type hamster alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor or a constitutively active mutant (CAM) form of this receptor resulting from the alteration of amino acid residues 288-294 to encode the equivalent region of the human beta 2-adrenergic receptor were examined. The basal level of inositol phosphate generation in cells expressing the CAM alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor was greater than for the wild-type receptor, The addition of maximally effective concentrations of phenylephrine or noradrenaline resulted in substantially greater levels of inositol phosphate generation by the CAM alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor, although this receptor was expressed at lower steady-state levels than the wild-type receptor. The potency of both phenylephrine and noradrenaline to stimulate inositol phosphate production was approx. 200-fold greater at the CAM alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor than at the wild-type receptor. In contrast, endothelin 1, acting at the endogenously expressed endothelin ETA, receptor, displayed similar potency and maximal effects in the two cell lines. The sustained presence of phenylephrine resulted in down-regulation of the alpha subunits of the phosphoinositidase C-linked, pertussis toxin-insensitive, G-proteins G9 and G11 in cells expressing either the wild-type or the CAM alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor. The degree of down-regulation achieved was substantially greater in cells expressing the CAM alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor at all concentrations of the agonist. However, in this assay phenylephrine displayed only a slightly greater potency at the CAM alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor than at the wild-type receptor. There were no detectable differences in the basal rate of G9 alpha/G11 alpha degradation between cells expressing the wild-type or the CAMalpha 1B-adrenergic receptor. In both cell lines the addition of phenylephrine substantially increased the rate of degradation of these G-proteins, with a greater effect at the CAM alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor. The enhanced capacity of agonist both to stimulate second-messenger production at the CAM alpha 1B-adrenergic receptor and to regulate cellular levels of its associated G-proteins by stimulating their rate of degradation is indicative of an enhanced stoichiometry of coupling of this form of the receptor to G9 and G11.

Hypersensitivity pneumonitis secondary to lovebirds: a new cause of bird fancier's disease.

Hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP) is an immunologically mediated lung disease due to the repetitive inhalation of antigens. Most new cases arise from residential exposures, notably to birds, and are thus more difficult to recognise. The present authors report a 59-yr-old male who complained of dyspnoea and cough while being treated with amiodarone. Pulmonary function tests revealed restriction and obstruction with low diffusing lung capacity for carbon monoxide and partial pressure of oxygen. A high-resolution computed tomography chest scan and bronchoalveolar lavage showed diffuse bilateral ground-glass attenuation and lymphocytic alveolitis, respectively. Initial diagnosis was amiodarone pulmonary toxicity, but because of a rapidly favourable evolution, this diagnosis was questioned. A careful environmental history revealed a close contact with lovebirds shortly before the onset of symptoms. Precipitins were strongly positive against lovebird droppings, but were negative against other avian antigens. The patient was diagnosed with hypersensitivity pneumonitis to lovebirds. Avoidance of lovebirds and steroid treatment led to rapid improvement. The present observation identifies a new causative agent for hypersensitivity pneumonitis and highlights the importance of a thorough environmental history and of searching for precipitins against antigens directly extracted from the patient's environment. These two procedures should allow a more precise classification of some cases of pneumonitis, and thus might avoid progression of active undiagnosed hypersensitivity pneumonitis to irreversible fibrosis or emphysema.