The great leap. Turkey under Erdogan. OSW Point of View 51, 27 May 2015

Since the AKP took power in 2002, Turkey has seen a replacement of the state’s elites, a real change of the political system and a redefinition of the state identity. All this has been accompanied by economic development and rapid social transformation. The pro-democratic reforms and improved prosperity in the first decade of the AKP’s rule created the opportunity for Turkey to become part of the West in terms of legal and political standards, while maintaining its cultural distinctness. However, from the point of view of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of a new Turkey, the political reforms turned out not to be a goal per se but a means to the end of achieving a monopoly on power. Once this goal was achieved, Erdogan began leading Turkey towards the status of an autocratic state focused on the Middle East and resentful towards the West. This trend is unlikely to be reversed under Erdogan’s rule. However, even if the government were to change, there would be no return to the Turkey from before the AKP era. In turn, the Turkish public will have to answer the questions regarding its civilisational identity and the vision of the political and social order.

Ramzanistan. Russia's Chechen Problem. OSW POINT OF VIEW Number 54, 2015-08-25

The political activity and growing independence of Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov raises questions about his loyalty and the possibility of his openly renouncing his servitude to Moscow. Such a scenario seems unlikely because of the dependence of Kadyrov’s regime on Russia. He is burdened by his republic’s financial dependence, the stain of collaboration and the crimes committed on his own people, and so his regime cannot exist without Moscow’s support. However, Kadyrov’s dependence on Moscow and the apparent stability of the situation in Chechnya do not mean that a lasting peace has been established there. The current plan for governing the republic and the relationship between Moscow and Grozny is a temporary solution, based not on durable solutions, but on the situational convergence of the Kremlin and Kadyrov’s interests. A change of government in the Kremlin, or to an even greater degree a domestic crisis in Russia which weakens its position in the Caucasus, would mean the fall of Kadyrov’s regime, and the reactivation of pro-independence rhetoric in Chechnya.

Dissertation sur l'architecture françoise, qui par les paralleles puisés dans la France & dans l'antiquité la plus reculée, tend à démontrer que la nation françoise a atteint le même point de perfection dans la pratique des arts, que les grecs & les romains : project, qui convient à tous les royaumes, suivant lequel il n'y auroit plus de médiocrité dans les arts libéraux & méchaniques, ni de citoyens pauvres ou malheureux : invention d'un ordre françois, très-neuf dans toute sa composition, & propre à tous les genres d'exécution.

Signatures: pi1 a¹² A-E¹² F⁶.

Multiservice helicopter external air transport : single-point load rigging procedures.

"11 February 1991"--Vol. 2, P. i.

Mapping hippocampal and ventricular change in Alzheimer disease

We developed an anatomical mapping technique to detect hippocampal and ventricular changes in Alzheimer disease (AD). The resulting maps are sensitive to longitudinal changes in brain structure as the disease progresses. An anatomical surface modeling approach was combined with surface-based statistics to visualize the region and rate of atrophy in serial MRI scans and isolate where these changes link with cognitive decline. Fifty-two high-resolution MRI scans were acquired from 12 AD patients (age: 68.4 +/- 1.9 years) and 14 matched controls (age: 71.4 +/- 0.9 years), each scanned twice (2.1 +/- 0.4 years apart). 3D parametric mesh models of the hippocampus and temporal horns were created in sequential scans and averaged across subjects to identify systematic patterns of atrophy. As an index of radial atrophy, 3D distance fields were generated relating each anatomical surface point to a medial curve threading down the medial axis of each structure. Hippocampal atrophic rates and ventricular expansion were assessed statistically using surface-based permutation testing and were faster in AD than in controls. Using color-coded maps and video sequences, these changes were visualized as they progressed anatomically over time. Additional maps localized regions where atrophic changes linked with cognitive decline. Temporal horn expansion maps were more sensitive to AD progression than maps of hippocampal atrophy, but both maps correlated with clinical deterioration. These quantitative, dynamic visualizations of hippocampal atrophy and ventricular expansion rates in aging and AD may provide a promising measure to track AD progression in drug trials. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A picrotoxin-specific conformational change in the glycine receptor M2-M3 loop.

The external loop linking the M2 and M3 transmembrane domains is crucial for coupling agonist binding to channel gating in the glycine receptor chloride channel (GlyR). A substituted cysteine accessibility scan previously showed that glycine activation increased the surface accessibility of 6 contiguous residues (Arg(271) Lys(276)) toward the N-terminal end of the homomeric alpha 1 GlyR M2 - M3 loop. In the present study we used a similar approach to determine whether the allosteric antagonist, picrotoxin, could impose conformational changes to this domain that cannot be induced by varying agonist concentrations alone. Picrotoxin slowed the reaction rate of a sulfhydryl-containing compound ( MTSET) with A272C, S273C, and L274C. Before interpreting this as a picrotoxin-specific conformational change, it was necessary to eliminate the possibility of steric competition between picrotoxin and MTSET. Accordingly, we showed that picrotoxin and the structurally unrelated blocker, bilobalide, were both trapped in the R271C GlyR in the closed state and that a point mutation to the pore-lining Thr(6') residue abolished inhibition by both compounds. We also demonstrated that the picrotoxin dissociation rate was linearly related to the channel open probability. These observations constitute a strong case for picrotoxin binding in the pore. We thus conclude that the picrotoxin-specific effects on the M2 - M3 loop are mediated allosterically. This suggests that the M2 - M3 loop responds differently to the occupation of different binding sites.

Voices of lay principals: Promoting a Catholic character and culture in schools in an era of change

This paper reports a qualitative study of the practice of leadership in Catholic schools to ascertain the perceptions of lay principals, who as positional leaders play a critical role in embracing and creatively rebuilding the Catholic vision of life within the reality that the Catholic school principalship is now a ministry of the laity. The methodology included semi-structured interviews, field notes, reflexive journals, direct observation, and document nalysis. The study examined both individual human behaviour and the structure of the social order in Catholic schools. The findings point towards successful leadership in Catholic schools being highly influenced by the cultural and spiritual capital that a principal brings to a school signifying a fundamental importance of appointing principals who are not only professionally competent but spiritually as well. In an era of unprecedented social, educational and ecclesial change, and with an ever widening role description, lay principals are challenged to redefine and re-articulate their Catholic character and identity, and will need to look for new ways to make this explicit. Embracing a new leadership paradigm of shared leadership, the preparation and on-going formation of lay principals were identified as critical for the continuance of the Catholic school’s distinctive mission in the future.

Bringing hope to crisis: critical thinking, ethical action and social change

This paper departs from this point to consider whether and how crisis thinking contributes to practices of affirmative critique and transformative social action in late-capitalist societies. I argue that different deployments of crisis thinking have different ‘affect-effects’ and consequences for ethical and political practice. Some work to mobilize political action through articulating a politics of fear, assuming that people take most responsibility for the future when they fear the alternatives. Other forms of crisis thinking work to heighten critical awareness by disrupting existential certainty, asserting an ‘ethics of ambiguity’ which assumes that the continuous production of uncertain futures is a fundamental part of the human condition (de Beauvoir, 2000). In this paper, I hope to illustrate that the first deployment of crisis thinking can easily justify the closing down of political debate, discouraging radical experimentation and critique for the sake of resolving problems in a timely and decisive way. The second approach to crisis thinking, on the other hand, has greater potential to enable intellectual and political alterity in everyday life—but one that poses considerable challenges for our understandings of and responses to climate change...

The investigation of vegetation change using remote sensing to detect and monitor migration of landfill gas

Decomposition of domestic wastes in an anaerobic environment results in the production of landfill gas. Public concern about landfill disposal and particularly the production of landfill gas has been heightened over the past decade. This has been due in large to the increased quantities of gas being generated as a result of modern disposal techniques, and also to their increasing effect on modern urban developments. In order to avert diasters, effective means of preventing gas migration are required. This, in turn requires accurate detection and monitoring of gas in the subsurface. Point sampling techniques have many drawbacks, and accurate measurement of gas is difficult. Some of the disadvantages of these techniques could be overcome by assessing the impact of gas on biological systems. This research explores the effects of landfill gas on plants, and hence on the spectral response of vegetation canopies. Examination of the landfill gas/vegetation relationship is covered, both by review of the literature and statistical analysis of field data. The work showed that, although vegetation health was related to landfill gas, it was not possible to define a simple correlation. In the landfill environment, contribution from other variables, such as soil characteristics, frequently confused the relationship. Two sites are investigated in detail, the sites contrasting in terms of the data available, site conditions, and the degree of damage to vegetation. Gas migration at the Panshanger site was dominantly upwards, affecting crops being grown on the landfill cap. The injury was expressed as an overall decline in plant health. Discriminant analysis was used to account for the variations in plant health, and hence the differences in spectral response of the crop canopy, using a combination of soil and gas variables. Damage to both woodland and crops at the Ware site was severe, and could be easily related to the presence of gas. Air photographs, aerial video, and airborne thematic mapper data were used to identify damage to vegetation, and relate this to soil type. The utility of different sensors for this type of application is assessed, and possible improvements that could lead to more widespread use are identified. The situations in which remote sensing data could be combined with ground survey are identified. In addition, a possible methodology for integrating the two approaches is suggested.

Institutional work at field-configuring events:shaping industry change within sustainable transitions

Adopting an institutional approach from organization studies, this paper explores the role of key actors on “purposeful governance for sustainability” (Smith, Voss et al. 2010: 444) through the case of smart metering in the UK. Institutions are enduring patterns in social life, reflected in identities, routines, rules, shared meanings and social relations, which enable, and constrain, the beliefs and behaviours of individual and collective actors within a field (Thornton and Ocasio 2008). Large-scale external initiatives designed to drive regime-level change prompt ‘institutional entrepreneurs’ to perform ‘institutional work’ – “purposive action aimed at creating, maintaining and disrupting institutions” (Lawrence and Suddaby, 2006). Organization scholars are giving increasing attention to ‘field-configuring events’ (FCEs) which provide social spaces for diverse organizational actors to come together to collectively shape socio-technical pathways (Lampel and Meyer 2008). Our starting point for this exploratory study is that FCEs can offer important insights to the dynamics, politics and governance of sustainability transitions. Methodologically, FCEs allow us to observe and “link field evolution at the macro-level with individual action at the micro-level” (Lampel and Meyer, 2008: 1025). We examine the work of actors during a series of smart metering industry forums over a three-year period (industry presentations [n= 77] and panel discussions [n= 16]). The findings reveal new insights about how institutional change unfolds, alongside technological transitions, in ways that are partial and aligned with the interests of powerful incumbents whose voices are frequently heard at FCEs. The paper offers three contributions. First, the study responds to calls for more research examining FCEs and the role they play in transforming institutional fields. Second, the emergent findings extend research on institutional work by advancing our understanding of a specific site of institutional work, namely a face-to-face inter-organizational arena. Finally, in line with the research agenda for innovation studies and sustainability transitions elaborated by Smith et al (2010), the paper illustrates how actors in a social system respond to, translate, and enact interventions designed to promote industrial transformation, ultimately shaping the sustainability transition pathway.

Deindustrialisation and structural change during the post-Communist transition

The aim of this paper is to model the evolution of employment structure in post-communist economies in the broader context of deindustrialisation. The paper builds on the model of structural change developed by Rowthorn and Wells (1987). We show that the starting point of high industry sector share in total employment and its direct fall when productivity of sectors changes in favour of services can be explained in terms of this framework. Moreover, the model can also describe the phenomenon of a further expansion of the agriculture, observed in countries classified as "less consistent" in the reforms implementation. Hence, we distinguish two development paths, the efficient one, called "horizontal", and the inefficient one called "vertical". We illustrate it with empirical data, using alternative measures of structural change and patterns of structural evolutions during transition. Finally, we discuss the link between the EBRD indicators of reforms and structural change. We show that the "quality" of reforms, not the initial GDP level determines a country's development path.

Productivity change using growth accounting and frontier-based approaches:evidence from a Monte Carlo analysis

This study presents some quantitative evidence from a number of simulation experiments on the accuracy of the productivitygrowth estimates derived from growthaccounting (GA) and frontier-based methods (namely data envelopment analysis-, corrected ordinary least squares-, and stochastic frontier analysis-based malmquist indices) under various conditions. These include the presence of technical inefficiency, measurement error, misspecification of the production function (for the GA and parametric approaches) and increased input and price volatility from one period to the next. The study finds that the frontier-based methods usually outperform GA, but the overall performance varies by experiment. Parametric approaches generally perform best when there is no functional form misspecification, but their accuracy greatly diminishes otherwise. The results also show that the deterministic approaches perform adequately even under conditions of (modest) measurement error and when measurement error becomes larger, the accuracy of all approaches (including stochastic approaches) deteriorates rapidly, to the point that their estimates could be considered unreliable for policy purposes.