Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

A unified approach to modeling multivariate binary data using copulas over partitions

Many seemingly disparate approaches for marginal modeling have been developed in recent years. We demonstrate that many current approaches for marginal modeling of correlated binary outcomes produce likelihoods that are equivalent to the proposed copula-based models herein. These general copula models of underlying latent threshold random variables yield likelihood based models for marginal fixed effects estimation and interpretation in the analysis of correlated binary data. Moreover, we propose a nomenclature and set of model relationships that substantially elucidates the complex area of marginalized models for binary data. A diverse collection of didactic mathematical and numerical examples are given to illustrate concepts.

Hospital use of young children in Switzerland: a nation-wide study based on a complete survey over 4 years

Background Young children are known to be the most frequent hospital users compared to older children and young adults. Therefore, they are an important population from economic and policy perspectives of health care delivery. In Switzerland complete hospitalization discharge records for children [<5 years] of four consecutive years [2002–2005] were evaluated in order to analyze variation in patterns of hospital use. Methods Stationary and outpatient hospitalization rates on aggregated ZIP code level were calculated based on census data provided by the Swiss federal statistical office (BfS). Thirty-seven hospital service areas for children [HSAP] were created with the method of "small area analysis", reflecting user-based health markets. Descriptive statistics and general linear models were applied to analyze the data. Results The mean stationary hospitalization rate over four years was 66.1 discharges per 1000 children. Hospitalizations for respiratory problem are most dominant in young children (25.9%) and highest hospitalization rates are associated with geographical factors of urban areas and specific language regions. Statistical models yielded significant effect estimates for these factors and a significant association between ambulatory/outpatient and stationary hospitalization rates. Conclusion The utilization-based approach, using HSAP as spatial representation of user-based health markets, is a valid instrument and allows assessing the supply and demand of children's health care services. The study provides for the first time estimates for several factors associated with the large variation in the utilization and provision of paediatric health care resources in Switzerland.

Coagulation activity before and after acute psychosocial stress increases with age

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether stress further increases hypercoagulation in older individuals. We investigated whether acute stress-induced changes in coagulation parameters differ with age. It is known that hypercoagulation occurs in response to acute stress and that a shift in hemostasis toward a hypercoagulability state occurs with age. However, it is not yet known whether acute stress further increases hypercoagulation in older individuals, and thus may increase their risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: A total of 63 medication-free nonsmoking men, aged between 20 and 65 years (mean +/- standard error of the mean = 36.7 +/- 1.7 years), underwent an acute standardized psychosocial stress task combining public speaking and mental arithmetic in front of an audience. We measured plasma clotting factor VII activity (FVII:C), fibrinogen, and D-dimer at rest, immediately, and 20 minutes after stress. RESULTS: Increased age predicted greater increases in fibrinogen (beta = 0.26, p = 0.041; DeltaR(2) = 0.05), FVII:C (beta = 0.40, p = .006; DeltaR(2) = 0.11), and D-dimer (beta = 0.51, p < .001; DeltaR(2) = 0.18) from rest to 20 minutes after stress independent of body mass index and mean arterial blood pressure. General linear models revealed significant effects of age and stress on fibrinogen, FVII:C, and D-dimer (main effects: p < .04), and greater D-dimer stress reactivity with older age (interaction age-by-stress: F(1.5/90.4) = 4.36, p = .024; f = 0.33). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that acute stress might increase vulnerability in the elderly for hypercoagulability and subsequent hemostasis-associated diseases like CVD.

Independent association between lower level of social support and higher coagulation activity before and after acute psychosocial stress

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between social support and coagulation parameter reactivity to mental stress in men and to determine if norepinephrine is involved. Lower social support is associated with higher basal coagulation activity and greater norepinephrine stress reactivity, which in turn, is linked with hypercoagulability. However, it is not known if low social support interacts with stress to further increase coagulation reactivity or if norepinephrine affects this association. These findings may be important for determining if low social support influences thrombosis and possible acute coronary events in response to acute stress. We investigated the relationship between social support and coagulation parameter reactivity to mental stress in men and determined if norepinephrine is involved. METHODS: We measured perceived social support in 63 medication-free nonsmoking men (age (mean +/- standard error of the mean) = 36.7 +/- 1.7 years) who underwent an acute standardized psychosocial stress task combining public speaking and mental arithmetic in front of an audience. We measured plasma D-dimer, fibrinogen, clotting Factor VII activity (FVII:C), and plasma norepinephrine at rest as well as immediately after stress and 20 minutes after stress. RESULTS: Independent of body mass index, mean arterial pressure, and age, lower social support was associated with higher D-dimer and fibrinogen levels at baseline (p < .012) and with greater increases in fibrinogen (beta = -0.36, p = .001; DeltaR(2) = .12), and D-dimer (beta = -0.21, p = .017; DeltaR(2) = .04), but not in FVII:C (p = .83) from baseline to 20 minutes after stress. General linear models revealed significant main effects of social support and stress on fibrinogen, D-dimer, and norepinephrine (p < .035). Controlling for norepinephrine did not change the significance of the reported associations between social support and the coagulation measures D-dimer and fibrinogen. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that lower social support is associated with greater coagulation activity before and after acute stress, which was unrelated to norepinephrine reactivity.

Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies

External forcing and internal dynamics result in climate system variability ranging from sub-daily weather to multi-centennial trends and beyond1, 2. State-of-the-art palaeoclimatic methods routinely use hydroclimatic proxies to reconstruct temperature (for example, refs 3, 4), possibly blurring differences in the variability continuum of temperature and precipitation before the instrumental period. Here, we assess the spectral characteristics of temperature and precipitation fluctuations in observations, model simulations and proxy records across the globe. We find that whereas an ensemble of different general circulation models represents patterns captured in instrumental measurements, such as land–ocean contrasts and enhanced low-frequency tropical variability, the tree-ring-dominated proxy collection does not. The observed dominance of inter-annual precipitation fluctuations is not reflected in the annually resolved hydroclimatic proxy records. Likewise, temperature-sensitive proxies overestimate, on average, the ratio of low- to high-frequency variability. These spectral biases in the proxy records seem to propagate into multi-proxy climate reconstructions for which we observe an overestimation of low-frequency signals. Thus, a proper representation of the high- to low-frequency spectrum in proxy records is needed to reduce uncertainties in climate reconstruction efforts.

Monitoring of Urinary Calcium and Phosphorus Excretion in Preterm Infants - Comparison of two Methods

OBJECTIVES: Premature babies require supplementation with calcium and phosphorus to prevent metabolic bone disease of prematurity. To guide mineral supplementation, two methods of monitoring urinary excretion of calcium and phosphorus are used: urinary calcium or phosphorus concentration and calcium/creatinine or phosphorus/creatinine ratios. We compare these two methods in regards to their agreement on the need for mineral supplementation. METHODS: Retrospective chart review of 230 premature babies with birthweight <1500 g, undergoing screening of urinary spot samples from day 21 of life and fortnightly thereafter. Hypothetical cut-off values for urine calcium or phosphorus concentration (1 mmol/l) and urine calcium/creatinine ratio (0.5 mol/mol) or phosphorus/creatinine ratio (4 mol/mol) were applied to the sample results. The agreement on whether or not to supplement the respective minerals based on the results with the two methods was compared. Multivariate general linear models sought to identify patient characteristic to predict disagreeing results. RESULTS: 24.8% of cases disagreed on the indication for calcium supplementation, 8.8% for phosphorus. Total daily calcium intake was the only patient characteristic associated with discordant results. CONCLUSIONS: With the intention to supplement the respective mineral, comparison of urinary mineral concentration with mineral/creatinine ratio is moderate for Calcium and good for Phosphorus. The results do not allow to identify superiority of either method on the decision which babies require calcium and/or phosphorus supplements.

Ein neues psychoendokrin-validiertes Verfahren zur Erfassung von Stressbewältigungsfertigkeiten (ISBF)

Background: We previously found good psychometric properties of the Inventory for assessment of stress management skills (German translation: Inventar zur Erfassung von Stressbewältigungsfertigkeiten), ISBF, a short questionnaire for combined assessment of different perceived stress management skills in the general population. Here, we investigate whether stress management skills as measured by ISBF relate to cortisol stress reactivity in two independent studies, a laboratory study (study 1) and a field study (study 2). Methods: 35 healthy non-smoking and medication-free men in study 1 (age mean±SEM:38.0±1.6) and 35 male and female employees in study 2 (age mean±SEM:32.9±1.2) underwent an acute standardized psychosocial stress task combining public speaking and mental arithmetic in front of an audience. We assessed stress management skills (ISBF) and measured salivary cortisol before and after stress and several times up to 60 min (study 2) and 120 min (study 1) thereafter. Potential confounders were controlled. Results:. General linear models controlling for potential confounders revealed that in both studies, higher stress management skills (ISBF total score) were independently associated with lower cortisol levels before and after stress (main effects ISBF: p’s<.055) and lower cortisol stress reactivity (interaction ISBF-by-stress: p’s<.029). Post-hoc-testing of ISBF subscales suggest lower cortisol stress reactivity with higher “relaxation abilities” (both studies) and higher scores in the scale “cognitive strategies and problem solving” (study 2). Conclusions: Our findings suggest blunted increases in cortisol following stress with increasing stress management skills as measured by ISBF. This suggests that the ISBF not only relates to subjective psychological but also objective physiological stress indicators which may further underscore the validity of the questionnaire.

Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology

An important key for the understanding of the dynamic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions is the warming of the tropical lower stratosphere and the concomitant intensification of the polar vortices. Although this mechanism is reproduced by most general circulation models today, most models still fail in producing an appropriate winter warming pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study ensemble sensitivity experiments were carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the influence of different ozone climatologies on the atmospheric dynamics and in particular on the northern hemispheric winter warming. The ensemble experiments were perturbed by a single Tambora-like eruption. Larger meridional gradients in the lower stratospheric ozone favor the coupling of zonal wind anomalies between the stratosphere and the troposphere after the eruption. The associated sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation patterns are more pronounced and the northern hemispheric winter warming is highly significant. Conversely, weaker meridional ozone gradients lead to a weaker response of the winter warming and the associated patterns. The differences in the number of stratosphere-troposphere coupling events between the ensembles experiments indicate a nonlinear response behavior of the dynamics with respect to the ozone and the volcanic forcing.

European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries

The drop in temperature following large volcanic eruptions has been identified as an important component of natural climate variability. However, due to the limited number of large eruptions that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, the precise amplitude of post-volcanic cooling is not well constrained. Here we present new evidence on summer temperature cooling over Europe in years following volcanic eruptions. We compile and analyze an updated network of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies, spanning the past nine centuries, and compare cooling signatures in this network with exceptionally long instrumental station records and state-of-the-art general circulation models. Results indicate post-volcanic June–August cooling is strongest in Northern Europe 2 years after an eruption (−0.52 ± 0.05 °C), whereas in Central Europe the temperature response is smaller and occurs 1 year after an eruption (−0.18 ± 0.07 °C). We validate these estimates by comparison with the shorter instrumental network and evaluate the statistical significance of post-volcanic summer temperature cooling in the context of natural climate variability over the past nine centuries. Finding no significant post-volcanic temperature cooling lasting longer than 2 years, our results question the ability of large eruptions to initiate long-term temperature changes through feedback mechanisms in the climate system. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to the response seen in general circulation models and emphasize the importance of considering well-documented, annually dated eruptions when assessing the significance of volcanic forcing on continental-scale temperature variations.

Barry Saltzman and the Theory of Climate

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the "father of modern climate theory." Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, lie played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz's famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society "for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth's climate." In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry's memory.

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Atmospheric Dynamics of Hot Exoplanets

The characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres has come of age in the last decade, as astronomical techniques now allow for albedos, chemical abundances, temperature profiles and maps, rotation periods and even wind speeds to be measured. Atmospheric dynamics sets the background state of density, temperature and velocity that determines or influences the spectral and temporal appearance of an exoplanetary atmosphere. Hot exoplanets are most amenable to these characterization techniques; in the present review, we focus on highly-irradiated, large exoplanets (the "hot Jupiters"), as astronomical data begin to confront theoretical questions. We summarize the basic atmospheric quantities inferred from the astronomical observations. We review the state of the art by addressing a series of current questions and look towards the future by considering a separate set of exploratory questions. Attaining the next level of understanding will require a concerted effort of constructing multi-faceted, multi-wavelength datasets for benchmark objects. Understanding clouds presents a formidable obstacle, as they introduce degeneracies into the interpretation of spectra, yet their properties and existence are directly influenced by atmospheric dynamics. Confronting general circulation models with these multi-faceted, multi-wavelength datasets will help us understand these and other degeneracies. The coming decade will witness a decisive confrontation of theory and simulation by the next generation of astronomical data.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Effectiveness of integrated cognitive remediartion therapy for schizophrenia outpatients: Early versus long-term course of illness – results from an international RCT

Background Nowadays there is extensive evidence available showing the efficacy of cognitive remediation therapies. Integrative approaches seem superior regarding the maintenance of proximal outcome at follow-up as well as generalization to other areas of functioning. To date, only limited evidence about the efficacy of CRT is available concerning elder schizophrenia patients. The Integrated Neurocognitive Therapy (INT) represents a new developed cognitive remediation approach. It is a manualized group therapy approach targeting all 11 NIMH-MATRICS dimensions within one therapy concept. In this study we compared the effects of INT on an early course group (duration of disease<5 years) to a long-term group of schizophrenia outpatients (duration of disease>15 years). Methods An international multicenter study carried out in Germany, Switzerland and Austria with a total of 90 outpatients diagnosed with Schizophrenia (DSM-IV-TR) were randomly assigned either to an INT-Therapy or to Treatment-As-Usual (TAU). 50 of the 90 Patients were an Early-Course (EC) group, suffering from schizophrenia for less than 5 years (Mean age=29 years, Mean duration of illness=3.3 years). The other 40 were a Long-term Course (LC) group, suffering from schizophrenia longer than 15 years (Mean age= 45 years, Mean duration of illness=22 years). Treatment comprised of 15 biweekly sessions. An extensive assessment battery was conducted before and after treatment and at follow up (1 year). Multivariate General Linear Models (GLM) (duration of illness x treatment x time) examined our hypothesis, if an EC group of schizophrenia outpatients differ in proximal and distal outcome from a LC group. Results Irrespective of the duration of illness, both groups (EC & LC) were able to benefit from the INT. INT was superior compared to TAU in most of the assessed domains. Dropout rate of EC group was much higher (21.4%) than LC group (8%) during therapy phase. However, interaction effects show that the LC group revealed significantly higher effects in the neurocognitive domains of speed of processing (F>3.6) and vigilance (F>2.4). In social cognition the EC group showed significantly higher effects in social schema (F>2.5) and social attribution (blame; F>6.0) compared to the LC group. Regarding more distal outcome, patients treated with INT obtained reduced general symptoms unaffected by the duration of illness during therapy phase and at follow-up (F>4.3). Discussion Results suggest that INT is a valid goal-oriented treatment to improve cognitive functions in schizophrenia outpatients. Irrespective of the duration of illness significant treatment, effects were evident. Against common expectations, long-term, more chronic patients showed higher effects in basal cognitive functions compared to younger patients and patients without any active therapy (TAU). Consequently, more integrated therapy offers are also recommended for long-term course schizophrenia patients.