Sea surface temperature and the subsequent freshwater survival rate of some salmon stocks: a surprising link between the climate of land and sea

Previous consideration of the relationship between climate and the survival rate of Pacific salmon eggs and fry has been confined to effects of large variation in the ambient freshwater environment; e.g., stream discharge, temperature, turbidity. This analysis shows sea surface temperatures during the last year of life of maturing adult salmon are also strongly associated with the subsequent survival rate of salmon eggs and fry is fresh water, presumably through development of the future eggs or sperm. In several stocks of three species of North American salmon, the association between the "marine" climate and egg survival is stronger than, or additive to, any estimated climatic association in fresh water. This apparent and surprising link between fresh water and the distant ocean has some interesting and complex implications for management of future salmon production.

Meteorological and hydrologic studies in the Alaskan Arctic in support of long-term ecological research

Long-term hydrologic studies in the Arctic simply do not exist. Although the Arctic has been identified as an area that is extremely sensitive to climate change, continuous scientific research has been limited to the past seven years. Earlier research was spotty, of short duration, and directed at only one or two hydrologic elements. Immediate future research needs to encompass all the major hydrologic elements, including winter processes, and needs to address the problem of scaling from small to larger areas in hydrologic models. Also, an international program of cooperation between northern countries is needed to build a greater scientific base for monitoring and identifying potential changes wrought by the climate.

Patterns of orographic uplift in the Sierra Nevada and their relationship to upper-level atmospheric circulation

We examine monthly and seasonal patterns of precipitation across various elevations of the eastern Central Valley of California and the Sierra Nevada. A measure of the strength of the orographic effect called the “precipitation ratio” is calculated, and we separate months into four groups based on being wet or dry and having low or high precipitation ratios. Using monthly maps of mean 700-mb height anomalies, we describe the northern hemisphere mid-tropospheric circulation patterns associated with each of the four groups. Wet months are associated with negative height anomalies over the eastern Pacific, as expected. However, the orientation of the trough is different for years with high and low precipitation ratios. Wet months with high ratios typically have circulation patterns factoring a west-southwest to east-northeast storm track from around the Hawaiian Islands to the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Wet months with low precipitation ratios are associated with a trough centered near the Aleutians and a northwest to southeast storm track. Dry months are marked by anticyclones in the Pacific, but this feature is more localized to the eastern Pacific for months with low precipitation ratios than for those with high ratios. Using precipitation gauge and snow course data from the American River and Truckee-Tahoe basins, we determined that the strength of the orographic effect on a seasonal basis is spatially coherent at low and high elevations and on opposite sides of the Sierra Nevada crestline.

Regulation of primary production in the Gulf of California through interaction of large-scale and local ocean processes [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The suppression of primary productivity observed in eastern boundary ecosystems of the Pacific during El Nino episodes does not occur throughout the Gulf of California. On the contrary, analysis of the modern siliceous phytoplankton record from annually layered sediments and compilation of available primary productivity measurements indicate that production is significantly increased in the central Gulf during El Nino years compared to anti-El Nino years. Integrated observations of biological and physical variability during the spring of 1983, under the influence of the strong El Nino, show that very high primary productivity occurred along the eastern margin of the central Gulf. This resulted from the upwelling of a nutrient rich source provided by the locally formed Gulf water mass originating in the northern Gulf. Lower productivity and phytoplankton biomass were associated with the anomalous penetration of Tropical Surface Water along the western side of the Gulf.

Climatic controls on diatom succession at Elk Lake, Minnesota [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Sediment traps placed in the profundal region of Elk Lake, north central Minnesota during the 1979 spring and 1983-84 fall and spring seasons monitored seasonal diatom production for two climatically distinctive periods.

Stratigraphy and chronology of Holocene marine sedment core from the California continental borderland and their paleoceanographic/paleoclimatic significance [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) records have been recovered from three marine sediment cores from Santa Catalina basin, California continental borderland, in order to more accurately date these late Quaternary sediments. ... The sedimentation rates derived from the time/depth curves suggest a constant rate of 20-25 cm/ky for the last 6700 years throughout Santa Catalina basin, and more variable rates (but constant within each core) of 13-86 cm/ky prior to 6700 ybp. The sedimentation rates prior to 6700 ybp are lowest in the southcentral portion of the basin and systematically increase toward the north end of the basin. These results suggest that 6700±300 ybp marks a major change in paleoceanographic processes within Santa Catalina basin.

Trends and long-term variability of ocean properties at Ocean Station P in the northeast Pacific Ocean [abstract]

Twenty-seven years (1956-1983) of oceanographic data collected at Ocean Station P (50°N/145°W), as well as supplementary data obtained in its neighborhood, have been examined for trends and interannual variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean. There is evidence that the water is warming and freshening and that the isopycnal surfaces are deepening. Trends in oxyty are mostly not significant. The most common periods for the interannual variability appear to be 2 1/2 and 6-7 years. The vertical movement of water accounts for one half of the changes in temperature and salinity and 30% of those in oxyty. Other factors, such as a shift of water masses, may also be important.

Streamflow and La Niña event relationships in the ENSO-streamflow core areas

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The high index phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), La Niña, has not been given as much attention as its counterpart, the low index phase of the SO, El Niño. One reason may be related to the fact that many similarities exist among El Niño events but not among La Niña events. ... In this study, we focus on the influences of La Niña phenomena on streamflow anomalies ... to explore the SO-related signal over the United States.

Drought frequency analysis for California from observed, synthetic, and proxy data

Drought frequency analysis can be performed with statistical techniques developed for determining recurrence intervals for extreme precipitation and flood events (Linsley et al 1992). The drought analysis method discussed in this paper uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution, which has been widely used in flood frequency research. Some of the difficulties encountered when using this distribution for drought analysis are investigated.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

An objective classification of climatic regions in the Pacific and Indian oceans

We have applied a number of objective statistical techniques to define homogeneous climatic regions for the Pacific Ocean, using COADS (Woodruff et al 1987) monthly sea surface temperature (SST) for 1950-1989 as the key variable. The basic data comprised all global 4°x4° latitude/longitude boxes with enough data available to yield reliable long-term means of monthly mean SST. An R-mode principal components analysis of these data, following a technique first used by Stidd (1967), yields information about harmonics of the annual cycles of SST. We used the spatial coefficients (one for each 4-degree box and eigenvector) as input to a K-means cluster analysis to classify the gridbox SST data into 34 global regions, in which 20 comprise the Pacific and Indian oceans. Seasonal time series were then produced for each of these regions. For comparison purposes, the variance spectrum of each regional anomaly time series was calculated. Most of the significant spectral peaks occur near the biennial (2.1-2.2 years) and ENSO (~3-6 years) time scales in the tropical regions. Decadal scale fluctuations are important in the mid-latitude ocean regions.

Relationships between ENSO events and San Francisco rainfall, 1949-1991

As California entered its sixth consecutive year of drought, the onset of a positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific and other indicators of a developing ENSO event were observed. This brought the following question from the media, water officials, and the public: What effect will El Niño have on the current rainfall season in general and on the intraseasonal distribution of rain in particular? To answer the question, the historical San Francisco rainfall record was examined in relationship to previous ENSO events.

Year-to-year changes of vertical temperature distribution in the California Current region: 1954 to 1986

Studies by Enfield and Allen (1980), McLain et al (1985), and others have shown that anomalously warm years in the northern coastal California Current correspond to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Ocean model studies suggest a mechanical link between the northern coastal California Current and the equatorial ocean through long waves that propagate cyclonically along the ocean boundary (McCreary 1976; Clarke 1983; Shriver et al 1991). However, distinct observational evidence of such an oceanic connection is not extensive. Much of the supposed El Niño variation in temperature and sea level data from the coastal California Current region can be associated with the effects of anomalously intense north Pacific atmospheric cyclogenesis, which is frequently augmented during El Niño years (Wallace and Gutzler 1981; Simpson 1983; Emery and Hamilton 1984). This study uses time series of ocean temperature data to distinguish between locally forced effects, initiated by north Pacific atmospheric changes, and remotely forced effects, initiated by equatorial Pacific atmospheric changes related to El Niño events.

A preliminary description of climatology in the western United States

We describe the climatology of the western United States as seen from two 1-month perspectives, January and July 1988, of the National Meteorological Center large-scale global analysis, the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and various station observation sets. An advantage of the NMC analysis and the RAMS is that they provide a continuous field interpolation of the meteorological variables. It is more difficult to describe spatial meteorological fields from the available sparse station networks. We assess accuracy of the NMC analysis and RAMS by finding differences between the analysis, the model, and station values at the stations. From these comparisons, we find that RAMS has much more well-developed mesoscale circulation, especially in the surface wind field. However, RAMS climatological and transient fields do not appear to be substantially closer than the larger-scale analysis to the station observations. The RAMS model does provide other meteorological variables, such as precipitation, which are not readily available from the archives of the global analysis. Thus, RAMS could, at the least, be a tool to augment the NMC large-scale analyses.

Climatic impacts of the 1991-92 Western winter

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The latest in a series of unusual winters affected the western United States during 1991-92. This report is primarily concerned with the 6 to 8 coolest months, with some consideration of the adjacent summer months. ... Much of the winter was characterized by "split flow" west of North America. As it approached the West Coast, the jet stream frequently diverged into a northern branch toward Panhandle Alaska and a second southern branch that dived south along the California coast and then eastward along the US-Mexican border. Repeatedly, storms approaching the West Coast were stretched north-to-south, losing their organization in the process.