What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?

Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

Calibrating predicted tree diameter distributions in Catalonia, Spain

Abstract

Constrained peptidomimetics reveal detailed geometric requirements of covalent prolyl oligopeptidase inhibitors.

Prolyl oligopeptidases cleave peptides on the carboxy side of internal proline residues and their inhibition has potential in the treatment of human brain disorders. Using our docking program fitted, we have designed a series of constrained covalent inhibitors, built from a series of bicyclic scaffolds, to study the optimal shape required for these small molecules. These structures bear nitrile functional groups that we predicted to covalently bind to the catalytic serine of the enzyme. Synthesis and biological assays using human brain-derived astrocytic cells and endothelial cells and human fibroblasts revealed that these compounds act as selective inhibitors of prolyl oligopeptidase activity compared to prolyl-dipeptidyl-aminopeptidase activity, are able to penetrate the cells and inhibit intracellular activities in intact living cells. This integrated computational and experimental study shed light on the binding mode of inhibitors in the enzyme active site and will guide the design of future drug-like molecules.

Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

Positive time-frequency distributions based on joint marginal constraints

This correspondence studies the formulation of members ofthe Cohen-Posch class of positive time-frequency energy distributions.Minimization of cross-entropy measures with respect to different priorsand the case of no prior or maximum entropy were considered. It isconcluded that, in general, the information provided by the classicalmarginal constraints is very limited, and thus, the final distributionheavily depends on the prior distribution. To overcome this limitation,joint time and frequency marginals are derived based on a "directioninvariance" criterion on the time-frequency plane that are directly relatedto the fractional Fourier transform.

Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions

1. Biogeographical models of species' distributions are essential tools for assessing impacts of changing environmental conditions on natural communities and ecosystems. Practitioners need more reliable predictions to integrate into conservation planning (e.g. reserve design and management). 2. Most models still largely ignore or inappropriately take into account important features of species' distributions, such as spatial autocorrelation, dispersal and migration, biotic and environmental interactions. Whether distributions of natural communities or ecosystems are better modelled by assembling individual species' predictions in a bottom-up approach or modelled as collective entities is another important issue. An international workshop was organized to address these issues. 3. We discuss more specifically six issues in a methodological framework for generalized regression: (i) links with ecological theory; (ii) optimal use of existing data and artificially generated data; (iii) incorporating spatial context; (iv) integrating ecological and environmental interactions; (v) assessing prediction errors and uncertainties; and (vi) predicting distributions of communities or collective properties of biodiversity. 4. Synthesis and applications. Better predictions of the effects of impacts on biological communities and ecosystems can emerge only from more robust species' distribution models and better documentation of the uncertainty associated with these models. An improved understanding of causes of species' distributions, especially at their range limits, as well as of ecological assembly rules and ecosystem functioning, is necessary if further progress is to be made. A better collaborative effort between theoretical and functional ecologists, ecological modellers and statisticians is required to reach these goals.

Effect of Mechanical and Geometric Mismatching on Fatigue and Damage of Welded Joints

The future of high technology welded constructions will be characterised by higher strength materials and improved weld quality with respect to fatigue resistance. The expected implementation of high quality high strength steel welds will require that more attention be given to the issues of crack initiation and mechanical mismatching. Experiments and finite element analyses were performed within the framework of continuum damage mechanics to investigate the effect of mismatching of welded joints on void nucleation and coalescence during monotonic loading. It was found that the damage of undermatched joints mainly occurred in the sandwich layer and the damageresistance of the joints decreases with the decrease of the sandwich layer width. The damage of over-matched joints mainly occurred in the base metal adjacent to the sandwich layer and the damage resistance of the joints increases with thedecrease of the sandwich layer width. The mechanisms of the initiation of the micro voids/cracks were found to be cracking of the inclusions or the embrittled second phase, and the debonding of the inclusions from the matrix. Experimental fatigue crack growth rate testing showed that the fatigue life of under-matched central crack panel specimens is longer than that of over-matched and even-matched specimens. Further investigation by the elastic-plastic finite element analysis indicated that fatigue crack closure, which originated from the inhomogeneousyielding adjacent to the crack tip, played an important role in the fatigue crack propagation. The applicability of the J integral concept to the mismatched specimens with crack extension under cyclic loading was assessed. The concept of fatigue class used by the International Institute of Welding was introduced in the parametric numerical analysis of several welded joints. The effect of weld geometry and load condition on fatigue strength of ferrite-pearlite steel joints was systematically evaluated based on linear elastic fracture mechanics. Joint types included lap joints, angle joints and butt joints. Various combinations of the tensile and bending loads were considered during the evaluation with the emphasis focused on the existence of both root and toe cracks. For a lap joint with asmall lack-of-penetration, a reasonably large weld leg and smaller flank angle were recommended for engineering practice in order to achieve higher fatigue strength. It was found that the fatigue strength of the angle joint depended strongly on the location and orientation of the preexisting crack-like welding defects, even if the joint was welded with full penetration. It is commonly believed that the double sided butt welds can have significantly higher fatigue strength than that of a single sided welds, but fatigue crack initiation and propagation can originate from the weld root if the welding procedure results in a partial penetration. It is clearly shown that the fatigue strength of the butt joint could be improved remarkably by ensuring full penetration. Nevertheless, increasing the fatigue strength of a butt joint by increasing the size of the weld is an uneconomical alternative.

Extreme-value distributions and renormalization group

In the classical theorems of extreme value theory the limits of suitably rescaled maxima of sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables are studied. The vast majority of the literature on the subject deals with affine normalization. We argue that more general normalizations are natural from a mathematical and physical point of view and work them out. The problem is approached using the language of renormalization-group transformations in the space of probability densities. The limit distributions are fixed points of the transformation and the study of its differential around them allows a local analysis of the domains of attraction and the computation of finite-size corrections.

Univariate Parametric Survival Analysis using GS-distributions

The GS-distribution is a family of distributions that provide an accurate representation of any unimodal univariate continuous distribution. In this contribution we explore the utility of this family as a general model in survival analysis. We show that the survival function based on the GS-distribution is able to provide a model for univariate survival data and that appropriate estimates can be obtained. We develop some hypotheses tests that can be used for checking the underlying survival model and for comparing the survival of different groups.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognized at local scales, but its potential importance for plant species' distribution at larger spatial scales has largely been ignored. Tree cover acts as a modulator of local abiotic conditions, notably by reducing light availability below the canopy and thus the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains. Using 6,935 vegetation plots located across the European Alps, we fit Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for the distribution of 960 herbs and shrubs species to assess the effect of tree cover at both plot and landscape grain sizes (~ 10-m and 1-km, respectively). We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) for each species at both spatial grains. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-scale tree cover on plant communities. Finally, the effects on species' elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species' distribution under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved model performance, with shade-tolerant species increasing their probability of presence at high tree cover whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit strongest at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-scale plant communities, suggesting that the effects may be transmitted to coarser grains through meta-community dynamics. At high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited elevational range contractions, especially at their upper limit, whereas shade-tolerant species showed elevational range expansions at both limits. Our findings suggest that the range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modulated by tree cover dynamics.

Angular distributions of leptons from J/ ψ's produced in 920 GeV fixed-target proton-nucleus collisions

A study of the angular distributions of leptons from decays of J/ψ"s produced in p-C and p-W collisions at s√=41.6~GeV has been performed in the J/ψ Feynman-x region −0.341 GeV/c a significant dependence on the reference frame is found: the polar anisotropy is more pronounced in the Collins-Soper frame and almost vanishes in the helicity frame, where, instead, a significant azimuthal anisotropy arises.

A geometric chracterization of the nucleolus of the assignment game

Maschler et al. (1979) caracteritzen geomètricament la intersecció del kernel i del core en els jocs cooperatius, demostrant que les distribucions que pertanyen a ambdós conjunts es troben en el punt mig d’un cert rang de negociació entre parelles de jugadors. En el cas dels jocs d’assignació, aquesta caracterització vol dir que el kernel només conté aquells elements del core on el màxim que un jugador pot transferir a una parella òptima és igual al màxim que aquesta parella li pot transferir, sense sortir-se’n del core. En aquest treball demostrem que el nucleolus d’un joc d’assignació queda caracteritzat si requerim que aquesta propietat de bisecció es compleixi no només per parelles, sinó també per coalicions entre sectors aparellades òptimament.