Prévention de la maladie de Lyme : facteurs sociaux et priorisation des interventions

La maladie de Lyme est la maladie vectorielle la plus fréquente dans les pays tempérés et est en émergence dans plusieurs régions du monde. Plusieurs stratégies de prévention existent et comprennent des interventions qui visent les individus, comme le port de vêtements protecteurs, et d’autres qui sont implantées au niveau collectif, dont des interventions de contrôle des tiques dans l’environnement. L’efficacité de ces stratégies peut être influencée par divers facteurs, dont des facteurs sociaux tels que les connaissances, les perceptions et les comportements de la population ciblée. Elles peuvent également avoir des impacts parallèles non désirés, par exemple sur l’environnement et l’économie, et ces derniers peuvent s’opposer aux bénéfices des interventions jusqu’à remettre en cause la pertinence de leur mise en œuvre. Aussi, ces facteurs sociaux et les impacts des interventions sont susceptibles de varier selon la population ciblée et en fonction du contexte épidémiologique et social. L’objectif de cette thèse était donc d’étudier les principaux facteurs sociaux et enjeux d’importance à considérer pour évaluer l’efficacité et prioriser des interventions de prévention pour la maladie de Lyme dans deux populations exposées à des contextes différents, notamment en ce qui concerne leur situation épidémiologique, soient au Québec, où l’incidence de la maladie de Lyme est faible mais en émergence, et en Suisse, où elle est élevée et endémique depuis plus de trois décennies. L’approche choisie et le devis général de l’étude sont basés sur deux modèles théoriques principaux, soient le modèle des croyances relatives à la santé et celui de l’aide à la décision multicritère. Dans un premier temps, les facteurs associés à la perception du risque pour la maladie de Lyme, c’est-à-dire l’évaluation cognitive d’une personne face au risque auquel elle fait face, ont été étudiés. Les résultats suggèrent que les facteurs significatifs sont différents dans les deux régions à l’étude. Ensuite, l’impact des connaissances, de l’exposition, et des perceptions sur l’adoption de comportements préventifs individuels et sur l’acceptabilité des interventions de contrôle des tiques (acaricides, modifications de l’habitat, contrôle des cervidés) a été comparé. Les résultats suggèrent que l’impact des facteurs varierait en fonction du type du comportement et des interventions, mais que la perception de l’efficacité est un facteur commun fortement associé à ces deux aspects, et pourrait être un facteur-clé à cibler lors de campagnes de communication. Les résultats montrent également que les enjeux relatifs aux interventions de contrôle des tiques tels que perçus par la population générale seraient communs dans les deux contextes de l’étude, et partagés par les intervenants impliqués dans la prévention de la maladie de Lyme. Finalement, un modèle d’analyse multicritère a été développé à l’aide d’une approche participative pour le contexte du Québec puis adapté pour le contexte suisse et a permis d’évaluer et de prioriser les interventions préventives selon les différentes perspectives des intervenants. Les rangements produits par les modèles au Québec et en Suisse ont priorisé les interventions qui ciblent principalement les populations humaines, devant les interventions de contrôle des tiques. L’application de l’aide à la décision multicritère dans le contexte de la prévention de la maladie de Lyme a permis de développer un modèle décisionnel polyvalent et adaptable à différents contextes, dont la situation épidémiologique. Ces travaux démontrent que cette approche peut intégrer de façon rigoureuse et transparente les multiples perspectives des intervenants et les enjeux de la prévention relatifs à la santé publique, à la santé animale et environnementale, aux impacts sociaux, ainsi qu’aux considérations économiques, opérationnelles et stratégiques. L’utilisation de ces modèles en santé publique favoriserait l’adoption d’une approche « Une seule santé » pour la prévention de la maladie de Lyme et des zoonoses en général. Mots-clés : maladie de Lyme, prévention, facteurs sociaux, perception du risque, comportements préventifs, acceptabilité, priorisation des interventions, contrôle des tiques, aide à la décision multicritère, analyse multicritère, Québec, Suisse, « Une seule santé »

Traumatisme craniocérébral, services de santé mentale et suicide de l'enfance à l'âge adulte : une étude épidémiologique et qualitative de la situation québécoise (1987 à 2013)

Introduction et recension des écrits : Récemment, les suicides de vétérans et d’athlètes professionnels ont attiré l’attention sur l’association entre le TCC et le suicide. Les lignes directrices concernant la prise en charge en santé mentale dans cette population demeurent fragmentaires. Les objectifs de cette thèse sont de 1) déterminer si une association existe entre le TCC subi dans l’enfance et le suicide futur, 2) explorer si les personnes qui se sont suicidées ont consulté un psychiatre dans l’année précédant le suicide et évaluer si cela diffère selon que la personne ait eu un TCC ou non, 3) décrire et qualifier l’offre québécoise de santé mentale offerte en réadaptation aux enfants et aux adultes ayant subi un TCC. Méthodologie : Le volet épidémiologique consiste en une étude de cohorte rétrospective sur un échantillon de 135 703 enfants ayant reçu des services médicaux au Québec en 1987 et suivis jusqu’en 2008. Le volet qualitatif comprend un sondage auprès des gestionnaires des programmes de réadaptation TCC du Québec, des groupes de discussion avec des cliniciens et des entrevues avec des survivants de TCC et leurs proches. Résultats : Notre étude épidémiologique confirme une association significative entre le TCC subi dans l’enfance (HR 1,49 IC95% 1,04- 2,14), dans l’adolescence (HR 1,57, IC 95% 1,09-2,26) et à l’âge adulte (HR 2,53, IC95% 1,79-3,59) et le suicide. Malgré un risque de suicide plus élevé, les personnes avec un TCC et qui se sont suicidées n’ont pas consulté de psychiatre plus fréquemment que les personnes sans TCC (OR 1,29, IC 95% 0,75- 2,24). Par ailleurs, notre étude qualitative révèle que les forces du système actuel incluent une bonne qualité des services, mais qu’il existe des faiblesses au niveau de l’accès aux médecins spécialisés, du dépistage systématique et de l’accès aux services à long terme. Nos recommandations incluent le développement d’une approche coordonnée en santé mentale, l’implication automatique d’un gestionnaire de cas et l’amélioration des mécanismes d’accès après le congé.

IDENTIFICATION OF GENES CONTROLLING BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES AND PATHWAYS THROUGH STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND NETWORK RECONSTRUCTION

The developmental processes and functions of an organism are controlled by the genes and the proteins that are derived from these genes. The identification of key genes and the reconstruction of gene networks can provide a model to help us understand the regulatory mechanisms for the initiation and progression of biological processes or functional abnormalities (e.g. diseases) in living organisms. In this dissertation, I have developed statistical methods to identify the genes and transcription factors (TFs) involved in biological processes, constructed their regulatory networks, and also evaluated some existing association methods to find robust methods for coexpression analyses. Two kinds of data sets were used for this work: genotype data and gene expression microarray data. On the basis of these data sets, this dissertation has two major parts, together forming six chapters. The first part deals with developing association methods for rare variants using genotype data (chapter 4 and 5). The second part deals with developing and/or evaluating statistical methods to identify genes and TFs involved in biological processes, and construction of their regulatory networks using gene expression data (chapter 2, 3, and 6). For the first part, I have developed two methods to find the groupwise association of rare variants with given diseases or traits. The first method is based on kernel machine learning and can be applied to both quantitative as well as qualitative traits. Simulation results showed that the proposed method has improved power over the existing weighted sum method (WS) in most settings. The second method uses multiple phenotypes to select a few top significant genes. It then finds the association of each gene with each phenotype while controlling the population stratification by adjusting the data for ancestry using principal components. This method was applied to GAW 17 data and was able to find several disease risk genes. For the second part, I have worked on three problems. First problem involved evaluation of eight gene association methods. A very comprehensive comparison of these methods with further analysis clearly demonstrates the distinct and common performance of these eight gene association methods. For the second problem, an algorithm named the bottom-up graphical Gaussian model was developed to identify the TFs that regulate pathway genes and reconstruct their hierarchical regulatory networks. This algorithm has produced very significant results and it is the first report to produce such hierarchical networks for these pathways. The third problem dealt with developing another algorithm called the top-down graphical Gaussian model that identifies the network governed by a specific TF. The network produced by the algorithm is proven to be of very high accuracy.

THE ROLE OF E2F1 IN THE RESPONSE TO DNA DOUBLE STRAND BREAKS

The importance of E2F transcription factors in the processes of proliferation and apoptosis are well established. E2F1, but not other E2F family members, is also phosphorylated and stabilized in response to various forms of DNA damage to regulate the expression of cell cycle and pro-apoptotic genes. E2F1 also relocalizes and forms foci at sites of DNA double-strand breaks but the function of E2F1 at sites of damage is still unknown. Here I reveal that E2F1 deficiency leads to increased spontaneous DNA break and impaired recovery following exposure to ionizing radiation. In response to DNA double-strand breaks, NBS1 phosphorylation and foci formation are defective in cells lacking E2F1, but NBS1 expression levels are unaffected. Moreover, it was observed that an association between NBS1 and E2F1 is increased in response to DNA damage, suggesting that E2F1 may promote NBS1 foci formation through a direct or indirect interaction at sites of DNA breaks. E2F1 deficient cells also display impaired foci formation of RPA and Rad51, which suggests a defect in DNA end resection and formation of single-stranded DNA at DNA double-strand breaks. I also found E2F1 status affects foci formation of the histone acetyltransferase GCN5 in response to DNA double-strand breaks. E2F1 is phosphorylated at serine 31 (serine 29 in mouse) by the ATM kinase as part of the DNA damage response. To investigate the importance of this event, our lab developed an E2F1 serine 29 mutant mouse model. I find that E2F1 serine 29 mutant cells show loss of E2F1 foci formation in response to DNA double-strand breaks. Furthermore, DNA repair and NBS1 foci formation are impaired in E2f1S29A/S29A cells. Taken together, my results indicate novel roles for E2F1 in the DNA damage response, which may directly promote DNA repair and genome maintenance.

TP53 as a Biomarker in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Currently, there are no molecular biomarkers that guide treatment decisions for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Several retrospective studies have evaluated TP53 in HNSCC, and results have suggested that specific mutations are associated with poor outcome. However, there exists heterogeneity among these studies in the site and stage of disease of the patients reviewed, the treatments rendered, and methods of evaluating TP53 mutation. Thus, it remains unclear as to which patients and in which clinical settings TP53 mutation is most useful in predicting treatment failure. In the current study, we reviewed the records of a cohort of patients with advanced, resectable HNSCC who received surgery and post-operative radiation (PORT) and had DNA isolated from fresh tumor tissue obtained at the time of surgery. TP53 mutations were identified using Sanger sequencing of exons 2-11 and the associated splice regions of the TP53 gene. We have found that the group of patients with either non-disruptive or disruptive TP53 mutations had decreased overall survival, disease-free survival, and an increased rate of distant metastasis. When examined as an independent factor, disruptive mutation was strongly associated with the development of distant metastasis. As a second aim of this project, we performed a pilot study examining the utility of the AmpliChip® p53 test as a practical method for TP53 sequencing in the clinical setting. AmpliChip® testing and Sanger sequencing was performed on a separate cohort of patients with HNSCC. Our study demonstrated the ablity of the AmpliChip® to call TP53 mutation from a single formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded slide. The results from AmpliChip® testing were identical with the Sanger method in 11 of 19 cases, with a higher rate of mutation calls using the AmpliChip® test. TP53 mutation is a potential prognostic biomarker among patients with advanced, resectable HNSCC treated with surgery and PORT. Whether this subgroup of patients could benefit from the addition of concurrent or induction chemotherapy remains to be evaluated in prospective clinical trials. Our pilot study of the p53 AmpliChip® suggests this could be a practical and reliable method of TP53 analysis in the clinical setting.

Type I hypersensitivity and its pharmacological modulation in {\it Trichinella\/}-induced intestinal fluid secretion and rapid rejection of the parasite in immunized rats

Studies were performed to test the hypothesis that type I hypersensitivity underlies worm induced intestinal fluid secretion and the rapid rejection of Trichinella spiralis from immunized rats, and the two events may be related in a cause-effect manner.^ Two approaches were taken. One was to determine whether inhibition of anaphylaxis-mediated Cl$\sp{-}$ and fluid secretion accompanying a secondary infection impedes worm rejection from immune hosts. The other was to determine whether induction of intestinal fluid secretion in nonimmune hosts interfered with worm establishment. In both studies, fluid secretion was measured volumetrically 30 min after a challenge infection and worms were counted.^ In immunized rats indomethacin did not affect the worm-induced fluid secretion when used alone, despite inhibiting mucosal prostaglandin synthesis. Fluid secretion was reduced by treatment with diphenhydramine and further reduced by the combination of diphenhydramine and indomethacin. The paradoxical effects of indomethacin when used alone compared with its coadministration with diphenhydramine is explained by the enhancing effect of indomethacin on histamine release. Abolishing net fluid secretion in these studies had no effect on rapid worm rejection in immune hosts.^ Worm establishment was reduced in recipients of immune serum containing IgE antibodies. Net intestinal fluid secretion induced in normal rats by PGE$\sb2$, cholera toxin, or hypertonic mannitol solution had no effect on worm establishment compared with untreated controls.^ In a related experiment, worm-induced intestinal fluid secretion and worm rejection in immune rats were partially blocked by concurrent injection with 5-HT$\sb2$ and 5-HT$\sb3$ blockers (Ketanserin and MDL-72222), suggesting that 5-HT is involved. This possible involvement was supported in that treatment of nonimmune rats with 5-HT significantly inhibited worm establishment in the intestine.^ Results indicate that anaphylaxis is the basis for both worm-induced intestinal fluid secretion and rapid rejection of T. spiralis in immune rats, but these events are independent of one another. 5-HT is a possible mediator of worm rejection, however, its mechanism of action is related to something other than fluid secretion. ^

Suppression by {\it Trypanosoma brucei\/} of anaphylaxis-mediated ion transport in the small intestine of rats

Most tissue-invasive parasitic helminths prime for type 1 hypersensitivity or anaphylaxis during some phase of their life cycles. A prototype in this regard is the nematode Trichinella spiralis. Blood protozoa capable of tissue invasion, such as Trypanosoma brucei, might also be expected to prime for the expression of anaphylaxis. However, this response is usually absent in protozoal infections. The hypothesis tested was that failure of hosts infected with T.brucei to express anaphylaxis is related to this parasite's ability to selectively down-regulate immunoglobulin E (IgE) production, and not to an innate lack of allergenicity on the part of T.brucei-derived antigens. This hypothesis was tested by studying in the intestine of rats, antigen-induced Cl$\sp-$ secretion, which results from a local anaphylactic response mediated by IgE and mucosal mast cells. The Cl$\sp-$ secretory response can be primed either by infection with T.spiralis or by the parenteral administration of antigen. Anaphylaxis-induced Cl$\sp-$ secretion is expressed in vitro, and can be quantified electrophysiologically, as a change in transmural short-circuit current when sensitized intestine is mounted in Ussing chambers and challenged with the sensitizing antigen.^ Rats injected parenterally with trypanosome antigen elicited intestinal anaphylaxis in response to antigenic challenge. In contrast, the intestine of rats infected with T.brucei failed to respond to challenge with trypanosome antigen. Infection with T.brucei also suppressed antigen-induced Cl$\sp-$ secretion in rats sensitized and challenged with various antigens, including T.spiralis antigen. However, T.brucei infection did not inhibit the anaphylactic response in rats concomitantly infected with T.spiralis. Relative to the anaphylactic mediators, T.brucei infection blocked production of IgE in rats parenterally injected with antigen but not in T.spiralis-infected hosts. Also, the mucosal mastocytosis normally associated with trichinosis was unaffected by the trypanosome infection. These results support the conclusion that the failure to express anaphylaxis-mediated Cl$\sp-$ secretion in T.brucei infected rats, is due to this protozoan's ability to inhibit IgE production and not to the lack of allergenicity of trypanosome antigens. ^

Early stages of experimental colon carcinogenesis inhibit mast cell-dependent mucosal immune function of the distal colon

Inhibition of local host immune reactions is one mechanism contributing to tumor progression. To determine if alterations in local immune functioning occur during colon carcinogenesis, a model mucosal immune response, type I hypersensitivity against the intestinal parasite Trichinella spiralis, was first characterized in normal mice and then examined during experimental colon carcinogenesis. Segments of sensitized colon mounted in Ussing chambers and challenged with T. spiralis-derived antigen resulted in a rise in short-circuit current ($\rm\Delta I\sb{sc}$) that was antigen-specific and inhibited by furosemide, implicating epithelial Cl$\sp-$ secretion as the ionic mechanism. The immune-regulated Cl$\sp-$ secretion by colonic epithelial cells required the presence of mast cells with surface IgE. Inhibition of potential anaphylactic mediators with various pharmacological agents in vitro implicated prostaglandins and leukotrienes as the principal mediators of the antigen-induced $\rm\Delta I\sb{sc}$, with 5-hydroxytryptamine also playing a role. Distal colon from immune mice fed an aspirin-containing diet (800 mg/kg powdered diet) ad libitum for 6 wk had a decreased response to antigen, confirming the major role of prostaglandins in generating the colonic I$\sb{\rm sc}$. To determine the effects of early stages of colon carcinogenesis on this mucosal immune response, mice were immunized with T. spiralis 1 day after or 8 wk prior to the first of 6 weekly injections of the procarcinogen 1,2-dimethylhydrazine (DMH). Responsiveness to antigenic challenge was suppressed in the distal colon 4-6 wk after the final injection of DMH. One injection of DMH was not sufficient to inhibit antigen responsiveness. The colonic epithelium remained sensitive to direct stimulation by exogenous Cl$\sp-$ secretagogues. Decreased antigen-induced $\rm\Delta I\sb{sc}$ in the distal colon was not due to systemic immune suppression by DMH, as the proximal colon and jejunum maintained responsiveness to antigen. Also, rejection of a secondary T. spiralis infection from the small intestine was not altered. Tumors eventually developed 25-30 wk after the final injection of DMH only in the distal portions of the colon. These results suggest that early stages of DMH-induced colon carcinogenesis manipulate the microenvironment such that mucosal immune function, as measured by immune-regulated Cl$\sp-$ secretion, is suppressed in the distal colon, but not in other regions of the gut. Future elucidation of the mechanisms by which this localized inhibition of immune-mediated ion transport occurs may provide possible clues to the microenvironmental changes necessary for tumor progression in the distal colon. ^

Regulation and function of {\it Xparaxis\/} during the development of paraxial mesoderm in {\it Xenopus laevis\/}

Genes of the basic helix-loop-helix transcription factor family have been implicated in many different developmental processes from neurogenesis to myogenesis. The recently cloned bHLH transcription factor, paraxis, has been found to be expressed in the paraxial mesoderm of the mouse suggesting a role for paraxis in the development of this mesodermal subtype which gives rise to the axial muscle, skeleton, and dermis of the embryo. In order to perform in vivo gain of function assays and obtain a better understanding of the possible roles of paraxis in mesodermal and somitic development, we have successfully identified homologues of paraxis in the frog, Xenopus laevis, where the process of mesodermal induction and development is best understood. The two homologues, Xparaxis-a and Xparaxis-b, are conserved with respect to their murine homologue in structure and expression within the embryo. Xparaxis genes are expressed immediately after gastrulation in the paraxial mesoderm of Xenopus embryos and are down regulated in the myotome of the mature somite with continued expression in the undifferentiated dermatome. Overexpression of Xparaxis-b in Xenopus embryos caused defects in the organization and morphology of the somites. This effect was not dependent on DNA binding of Xparaxis but is likely due to its dimerization with other bHLH factors. Co-injections with XE12 did not diminish the effects indicating that the defects were not the result of limiting amounts of XE12. We also demonstrated that Xparaxis does not cause obvious defects in the cell adhesions and movements required for proper mesoderm patterning during gastrulation. The paraxis proteins also lacked the ability to activate transcription as GAL4 fusion proteins in a GAL4 reporter assay, indicating that the genes may function more as modulators of the activity of dimerization partners than as positively acting cell determination factors. In agreement with this, Xparaxis is regulated in response to other pathways of bHLH gene action, in that XE12 can activate Xparaxis-b, in vivo. In addition we show regulation of Xparaxis in response to mMyoD induced myogenesis pathways, again suggesting Xparaxis plays an important role in the patterning and organization of the paraxial mesoderm. ^

A study of the relationship between physical activity and cardiovascular fitness and coronary heart disease risk factors in female adolescents

The association of measures of physical activity with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in children, especially those for atherosclerosis, is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine the association of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness with blood lipids and lipoproteins in pre-adolescent and adolescent girls.^ The study population was comprised of 131 girls aged 9 to 16 years who participated in the Children's Nutrition Research Center's Adolescent Study. The dependent variables, blood lipids and lipoproteins, were measured by standard techniques. The independent variables were physical activity measured as the difference between total energy expenditure (TEE) and basal metabolic rate (BMR), and cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg). TEE was measured by the doubly-labeled water (DLW) method, and BMR by whole-room calorimetry. Cardiovascular fitness, VO$\rm\sb{2max}$(ml/min/kg), was measured on a motorized treadmill. The potential confounding variables were sexual maturation (Tanner breast stage), ethnic group, body fat percent, and dietary variables. A systematic strategy for data analysis was used to isolate the effects of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness on blood lipids, beginning with assessment of confounding and interaction. Next, from regression models predicting each blood lipid and controlling for covariables, hypotheses were evaluated by the direction and value of the coefficients for physical activity and cardiovascular fitness.^ The main result was that cardiovascular fitness appeared to be more strongly associated with blood lipids than physical activity. An interaction between cardiovascular fitness and sexual maturation indicated that the effect of cardiovascular fitness on most blood lipids was dependent on the stage of sexual maturation.^ A difference of 760 kcal/d physical activity (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile of physical activity) was associated with negligible differences in blood lipids. In contrast, a difference in 10 ml/min/kg of VO$\rm\sb{2max}$ or cardiovascular fitness (which represents the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile in cardiovascular fitness) in the early stages of sexual maturation was associated with an average positive difference of 15 mg/100 ml ApoA-1 and 10 mg/100 ml HDL-C. ^

Genes to blood pressure: The effects of variation in genes of the renin-angiotensin system on the hormonal and renal control of blood pressure

Objective. Essential hypertension affects 25% of the US adult population and is a leading contributor to morbidity and mortality. Because BP is a multifactorial phenotype that resists simple genetic analysis, intermediate phenotypes within the complex network of BP regulatory systems may be more accessible to genetic dissection. The Renin-Angiotensin System (RAS) is known to influence intermediate and long-term blood pressure regulation through alterations in vascular tone and renal sodium and fluid resorption. This dissertation examines associations between renin (REN), angiotensinogen (AGT), angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) and angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1) gene variation and interindividual differences in plasma hormone levels, renal hemodynamics, and BP homeostasis.^ Methods. A total of 150 unrelated men and 150 unrelated women, between 20.0 and 49.9 years of age and free of acute or chronic illness except for a history of hypertension (11 men and 7 women, all off medications), were studied after one week on a controlled sodium diet. RAS plasma hormone levels, renal hemodynamics and BP were determined prior to and during angiotensin II (Ang II) infusion. Individuals were genotyped by PCR for a variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) polymorphism in REN, and for the following restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLP): AGT M235T, ACE I/D, and AT1 A1166C. Associations between clinical measurements and allelic variation were examined using multiple linear regression statistical models.^ Results. Women homozygous for the AT1 1166C allele demonstrated higher intracellular levels of sodium (p = 0.044). Men homozygous for the AGT T235 allele demonstrated a blunted decrement in renal plasma flow in response to Ang II infusion (p = 0.0002). There were no significant associations between RAS gene variation and interindividual variation in RAS plasma hormone levels or BP.^ Conclusions. Rather than identifying new BP controlling genes or alleles, the study paradigm employed in this thesis (i.e., measured genes, controlled environments and interventions) may provide mechanistic insight into how candidate genes affect BP homeostasis. ^

Sequential updating via dynamic hierarchical models: A Bayesian approach to longitudinal data analysis

Most statistical analysis, theory and practice, is concerned with static models; models with a proposed set of parameters whose values are fixed across observational units. Static models implicitly assume that the quantified relationships remain the same across the design space of the data. While this is reasonable under many circumstances this can be a dangerous assumption when dealing with sequentially ordered data. The mere passage of time always brings fresh considerations and the interrelationships among parameters, or subsets of parameters, may need to be continually revised. ^ When data are gathered sequentially dynamic interim monitoring may be useful as new subject-specific parameters are introduced with each new observational unit. Sequential imputation via dynamic hierarchical models is an efficient strategy for handling missing data and analyzing longitudinal studies. Dynamic conditional independence models offers a flexible framework that exploits the Bayesian updating scheme for capturing the evolution of both the population and individual effects over time. While static models often describe aggregate information well they often do not reflect conflicts in the information at the individual level. Dynamic models prove advantageous over static models in capturing both individual and aggregate trends. Computations for such models can be carried out via the Gibbs sampler. An application using a small sample repeated measures normally distributed growth curve data is presented. ^

Resting and reactive blood pressure as predictors of ambulatory blood pressure in older hypertensive adults

Background. A review of the literature suggests that Hypertension (HTN) in older adults is associated with sympathetic stimulation that results in increasing blood pressure (BP) reactivity. If clinical assessment of BP captured sympathetic stimulation, it would be valuable for hypertension management. ^ Objectives. The study examined whether reactive change scores from a short BPR protocol, resting blood pressure (BP), or resting pulse pressure (PP) is a better predictor of 24 hour ambulatory BP and BP load in cardiac patients. ^ Method. The study used a single-group design, with both an experimental clinical component and an observational field component. Both components used repeated measurement methods. The study population consisted of 45 adult patients with a mean age of 64.6 ± 8.5 years who were diagnosed with cardiac disease and who were taking anti-hypertensive medication. Blood pressure reactivity was operationalized with a speech protocol. During the speech protocol, BP was measured with an automatic device (Dinamap 825XT) while subjects talked about their health and about their usual day. Twenty-four hour ambulatory BP measurement (Spacelabs 90207 monitor) followed the speech protocol. ^ Results. Resting SBP and resting PP were significant predictors of 24-hour SBP, and resting SBP was a significant predictor of SBP load. No predictors were significant of 24-hour DBP or DBP load. ^ Conclusions. Initial resting BP and PP may be used in clinical settings to assess hypertension management. Future studies are necessary to confirm the ability of resting BP to predict ABP and BP load in older, medicated hypertensives. ^

Body fat distribution and serum lipids in children and adolescents

Previous studies of normal children have linked body fat but not body fat distribution (BFD), to higher blood pressures, lipids, and insulin resistance (Berenson et al., 1988) BFD is a well-established risk factor for cardiovascular disease in adults (Björntorp, 1988). This study investigates the relation of BFD and serum lipids at baseline in children from Project HeartBeat!, a study of the growth and development of cardiovascular risk factors in 678 children in three cohorts measured initially at ages 8, 11, and 14 years. Initially, two of four indices of BFD were significantly related to the lipids: ratio of upper to lower body skinfolds (ln US:LS) and conicity (C Index). A factor analysis reduced the information in the serum lipids to two vectors: (1) total cholesterol + LDL-cholesterol and (2) HDL-cholesterol − triglycerides, which together accounted for 85% of the lipid variation. Using each serum lipid and vector as separate dependent variables, linear and quadratic regression models were constructed to examine the predictive ability of the two BFD variables, controlling for total body fat, gender, ethnicity (Black, non-Black) and maturation. Linear models provided an acceptable fit. Percent body fat (%BF) was a significant predictor in each and every lipid model, independent of age, maturation, or ethnicity (p ≤ 0.05). No BFD variable entered the equation for total or LDL-cholesterol, although there was a significant maturity by BFD interaction for LDL (ln US:LS was a significant predictor in more mature individuals). Both %BF and BFD (by way of Conicity) were significant predictors of HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides (p ≤ 0.01). All models were statistically significant at a high level (p ≤ 0.01), but adjusted R 2's for all models were low (0.05–0.15). Body fat distribution is a significant predictor of lipids in normal children, but secondarily to %BF, and for LDL-cholesterol in particular, the relation is dependent on maturity status. ^