Bayesian estimation of diameter distribution during harvesting

Abstract

Wheat alleles introgress into selfing wild relatives: empirical estimates from approximate Bayesian computation in Aegilops triuncialis.

Extensive gene flow between wheat (Triticum sp.) and several wild relatives of the genus Aegilops has recently been detected despite notoriously high levels of selfing in these species. Here, we assess and model the spread of wheat alleles into natural populations of the barbed goatgrass (Aegilops triuncialis), a wild wheat relative prevailing in the Mediterranean flora. Our sampling, based on an extensive survey of 31 Ae. triuncialis populations collected along a 60 km × 20 km area in southern Spain (Grazalema Mountain chain, Andalousia, totalling 458 specimens), is completed with 33 wheat cultivars representative of the European domesticated pool. All specimens were genotyped with amplified fragment length polymorphism with the aim of estimating wheat admixture levels in Ae. triuncialis populations. This survey first confirmed extensive hybridization and backcrossing of wheat into the wild species. We then used explicit modelling of populations and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate the selfing rate of Ae. triuncialis along with the magnitude, the tempo and the geographical distance over which wheat alleles introgress into Ae. triuncialis populations. These simulations confirmed that extensive introgression of wheat alleles (2.7 × 10(-4) wheat immigrants for each Ae. triuncialis resident, at each generation) into Ae. triuncialis occurs despite a high selfing rate (Fis ≈ 1 and selfing rate = 97%). These results are discussed in the light of risks associated with the release of genetically modified wheat cultivars in Mediterranean agrosystems.

Bayesian classification of forest ecological type from satellite data

The main objective of this study was todo a statistical analysis of ecological type from optical satellite data, using Tipping's sparse Bayesian algorithm. This thesis uses "the Relevence Vector Machine" algorithm in ecological classification betweenforestland and wetland. Further this bi-classification technique was used to do classification of many other different species of trees and produces hierarchical classification of entire subclasses given as a target class. Also, we carried out an attempt to use airborne image of same forest area. Combining it with image analysis, using different image processing operation, we tried to extract good features and later used them to perform classification of forestland and wetland.

Neuropeptide Y and corticotropin-releasing hormone in CSF mark response to antidepressive treatment with citalopram.

Neuropeptides appear to play a role in the pathophysiology of depression and electroconvulsive treatment and lithium affect these compounds in human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and rodent brain. Consequently, we investigated whether long-term treatment with the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) citalopram (Cit) would also affect neuropeptides in CSF of depressed patients. Changes in CSF monoamine metabolites were also explored. CSF concentrations of corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH)-like immunoreactivity (-LI), neuropeptide Y (NPY)-LI, and Cit were determined in 21 patients with major depression. Lumbar puncture was performed in the morning at baseline and was repeated after at least 4 wk of Cit treatment (40 mg/d). The severity of depression was assessed by the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAMD). Cit treatment was associated with a significant increase in NPY-LI and decrease in CRH-LI. An evaluation of the relationship between changes in concentrations of NPY-LI, CRH-LI, and the clinical response showed significant correlations between these parameters. Significant NPY and CRH changes in CSF following treatment as well as correlations to changes in HAMD support the hypothesis that these two peptides play a role in affective disorders and are markers of therapeutic response.

An update of the mechanisms of resistance to EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors in breast cancer: gefitinib (Iressatrade mark)-induced changes in the expression and nucleo-cytoplasmic trafficking of HER-ligands (Review)

Intrinsic resistance to the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR; HER1) tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) gefitinib, and more generally to EGFR TKIs, is a common phenomenon in breast cancer. The availability of molecular criteria for predicting sensitivity to EGFR-TKIs is, therefore, the most relevant issue for their correct use and for planning future research. Though it appears that in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) response to gefitinib is directly related to the occurrence of specific mutations in the EGFR TK domain, breast cancer patients cannot be selected for treatment with gefitinib on the same basis as such EGFR mutations have beenreported neither in primary breast carcinomas nor in several breast cancer cell lines. Alternatively, there is a generalagreement on the hypothesis that the occurrence of molecular alterations that activate transduction pathways downstreamof EGFR (i.e., MEK1/MEK2 - ERK1/2 MAPK and PI-3'K - AKT growth/survival signaling cascades) significantly affect the response to EGFR TKIs in breast carcinomas. However,there are no studies so far addressing a role of EGF-related ligands as intrinsic breast cancer cell modulators of EGFR TKIefficacy. We recently monitored gene expression profiles andsub-cellular localization of HER-1/-2/-3/-4 related ligands (i.e., EGF, amphiregulin, transforming growth factor-α, ß-cellulin,epiregulin and neuregulins) prior to and after gefitinib treatment in a panel of human breast cancer cell lines. First, gefitinibinduced changes in the endogenous levels of EGF-related ligands correlated with the natural degree of breast cancer cellsensitivity to gefitinib. While breast cancer cells intrinsically resistant to gefitinib (IC50 ≥15 μM) markedly up-regulated(up to 600 times) the expression of genes codifying for HERspecific ligands, a significant down-regulation (up to 106 times)of HER ligand gene transcription was found in breast cancer cells intrinsically sensitive to gefitinib (IC50 ≤1 μM). Second,loss of HER1 function differentially regulated the nuclear trafficking of HER-related ligands. While gefitinib treatment induced an active import and nuclear accumulation of the HER ligand NRG in intrinsically gefitinib-resistant breastcancer cells, an active export and nuclear loss of NRG was observed in intrinsically gefitinib-sensitive breast cancer cells.In summary, through in vitro and pharmacodynamic studies we have learned that, besides mutations in the HER1 gene,oncogenic changes downstream of HER1 are the key players regulating gefitinib efficacy in breast cancer cells. It now appears that pharmacological inhibition of HER1 functionalso leads to striking changes in both the gene expression and the nucleo-cytoplasmic trafficking of HER-specific ligands,and that this response correlates with the intrinsic degree of breast cancer sensitivity to the EGFR TKI gefitinib. Therelevance of this previously unrecognized intracrine feedback to gefitinib warrants further studies as cancer cells could bypassthe antiproliferative effects of HER1-targeted therapeutics without a need for the overexpression and/or activation of other HER family members and/or the activation of HER-driven downstream signaling cascades

Implementation of bayesian therapeutic drug monitoring in modern patient care

The variability observed in drug exposure has a direct impact on the overall response to drug. The largest part of variability between dose and drug response resides in the pharmacokinetic phase, i.e. in the dose-concentration relationship. Among possibilities offered to clinicians, Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM; Monitoring of drug concentration measurements) is one of the useful tool to guide pharmacotherapy. TDM aims at optimizing treatments by individualizing dosage regimens based on blood drug concentration measurement. Bayesian calculations, relying on population pharmacokinetic approach, currently represent the gold standard TDM strategy. However, it requires expertise and computational assistance, thus limiting its large implementation in routine patient care. The overall objective of this thesis was to implement robust tools to provide Bayesian TDM to clinician in modern routine patient care. To that endeavour, aims were (i) to elaborate an efficient and ergonomic computer tool for Bayesian TDM: EzeCHieL (ii) to provide algorithms for drug concentration Bayesian forecasting and software validation, relying on population pharmacokinetics (iii) to address some relevant issues encountered in clinical practice with a focus on neonates and drug adherence. First, the current stage of the existing software was reviewed and allows establishing specifications for the development of EzeCHieL. Then, in close collaboration with software engineers a fully integrated software, EzeCHieL, has been elaborated. EzeCHieL provides population-based predictions and Bayesian forecasting and an easy-to-use interface. It enables to assess the expectedness of an observed concentration in a patient compared to the whole population (via percentiles), to assess the suitability of the predicted concentration relative to the targeted concentration and to provide dosing adjustment. It allows thus a priori and a posteriori Bayesian drug dosing individualization. Implementation of Bayesian methods requires drug disposition characterisation and variability quantification trough population approach. Population pharmacokinetic analyses have been performed and Bayesian estimators have been provided for candidate drugs in population of interest: anti-infectious drugs administered to neonates (gentamicin and imipenem). Developed models were implemented in EzeCHieL and also served as validation tool in comparing EzeCHieL concentration predictions against predictions from the reference software (NONMEM®). Models used need to be adequate and reliable. For instance, extrapolation is not possible from adults or children to neonates. Therefore, this work proposes models for neonates based on the developmental pharmacokinetics concept. Patients' adherence is also an important concern for drug models development and for a successful outcome of the pharmacotherapy. A last study attempts to assess impact of routine patient adherence measurement on models definition and TDM interpretation. In conclusion, our results offer solutions to assist clinicians in interpreting blood drug concentrations and to improve the appropriateness of drug dosing in routine clinical practice.

Disentangling the formation of contrasting tree line physiognomies combining model selection and Bayesian parameterization for simulation models.

Alpine tree-line ecotones are characterized by marked changes at small spatial scales that may result in a variety of physiognomies. A set of alternative individual-based models was tested with data from four contrasting Pinus uncinata ecotones in the central Spanish Pyrenees to reveal the minimal subset of processes required for tree-line formation. A Bayesian approach combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods was employed to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters, allowing the use of model selection procedures. The main features of real tree lines emerged only in models considering nonlinear responses in individual rates of growth or mortality with respect to the altitudinal gradient. Variation in tree-line physiognomy reflected mainly changes in the relative importance of these nonlinear responses, while other processes, such as dispersal limitation and facilitation, played a secondary role. Different nonlinear responses also determined the presence or absence of krummholz, in agreement with recent findings highlighting a different response of diffuse and abrupt or krummholz tree lines to climate change. The method presented here can be widely applied in individual-based simulation models and will turn model selection and evaluation in this type of models into a more transparent, effective, and efficient exercise.

Approximate Bayesian Computation Reveals the Crucial Role of Oceanic Islands for the Assembly of Continental Biodiversity.

The perceived low levels of genetic diversity, poor interspecific competitive and defensive ability, and loss of dispersal capacities of insular lineages have driven the view that oceanic islands are evolutionary dead ends. Focusing on the Atlantic bryophyte flora distributed across the archipelagos of the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, Western Europe, and northwestern Africa, we used an integrative approach with species distribution modeling and population genetic analyses based on approximate Bayesian computation to determine whether this view applies to organisms with inherent high dispersal capacities. Genetic diversity was found to be higher in island than in continental populations, contributing to mounting evidence that, contrary to theoretical expectations, island populations are not necessarily genetically depauperate. Patterns of genetic variation among island and continental populations consistently fitted those simulated under a scenario of de novo foundation of continental populations from insular ancestors better than those expected if islands would represent a sink or a refugium of continental biodiversity. We, suggest that the northeastern Atlantic archipelagos have played a key role as a stepping stone for transoceanic migrants. Our results challenge the traditional notion that oceanic islands are the end of the colonization road and illustrate the significant role of oceanic islands as reservoirs of novel biodiversity for the assembly of continental floras.

Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.