Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

The Trouble with Inversion: an Examination of Science Sexual Orientation

Although some are excited about the possibility of using current scientific research into the biological causes of sexual orientation to ground rights claims, I argue that basing rights claims on this research is unwise because this research, specifically the hormonal, genetic, and structural research, is organized around the inversion assumption, a conceptual scheme within which some aspect of the biology of gay men and lesbians is thought to be inverted along sex lines.While there are many reasons to worry about the use of the inversion assumption, I focus on problems that arise from a further set of claims that must be assumed in order to make the use of the inversion assumption coherent. This further set of assumptions includes the claims (1) that heterosexuality is the standard state and that (2) this standard state is sexually-dimorphic and (3) deterministic. I argue that this set of assumptions is problematic because it results in ideological consequences that are both sexist and heterosexist.

Bayesian inference and model comparison for random choice structures

We complete the development of a testing ground for axioms of discrete stochastic choice. Our contribution here is to develop new posterior simulation methods for Bayesian inference, suitable for a class of prior distributions introduced by McCausland and Marley (2013). These prior distributions are joint distributions over various choice distributions over choice sets of di fferent sizes. Since choice distributions over di fferent choice sets can be mutually dependent, previous methods relying on conjugate prior distributions do not apply. We demonstrate by analyzing data from a previously reported experiment and report evidence for and against various axioms.

"A Most Weird Dialectic of Inversion" : revolutionary fraternity, sexuality and translation in Pierre Vallières and Eldridge Cleaver

Dans ce mémoire de maîtrise, il s'agit d'examiner le rôle du genre, de la sexualité et de la traduction dans les rapports entre deux mouvements nationalistes. D'abord, nous examinerons les représentations de la famille véchiulées dans l'autobiographie du membre du Front de libération du Québec Pierre Vallières (1938-1998), Les Nègres blancs d'Amérique. Ensuite, nous nous pencherons sur l'analyse du genre et de la sexualité contenue dans Soul on Ice, un recueil de textes écrits par le nationaliste noir Eldridge Cleaver (1933-1998). Dans les deux cas, la question de la violence révolutionnaire tiendra lieu de fil conducteur. Enfin, dans le troisième chapitre, nous relirons la traduction anglaise de Vallières, White Niggers of America, signée par Joan Pinkham. Cette relecture nous fournira l'occasion à la fois de comprendre et de critiquer, à partir de la perspective établie par la pensée de Cleaver au sujet de la masculinité noire dans une société régie par la suprématie blanche, comment Vallières essaie de bâtir des réseaux de solidarité internationaux et interraciaux entre les hommes. Dans notre conclusion, nous réunirons ces trois textes par le biais du sujet de l'internationalisme, en nous servant de la théorie queer, de la traductologie et des données biographiques pour résumer les résultats de nos recherches.

Étude du champ magnétique interne de deux matériaux magnétiques et d'un supraconducteur sans symétrie d'inversion.

Cette thèse est divisée en trois parties. Une première section présente les résultats de l'étude de la formation de polarons magnétiques liés (BMP) dans le ferroaimant EuB6 par diffusion de neutrons à petits angles (SANS). La nature magnétique du système ferromagnétique est observée sous une température critique de 15K. La signature des BMP n'apparaît pas dans la diffusion de neutrons, mais ces mesures permettent de confirmer une limite inférieure de 100\AA à la longueur de cohérence des BMP (xi_{Lower}). Dans un second temps, l'étude du LaRhSi3, un supraconducteur sans symétrie d'inversion, par muSR et ZF-muSR nous permet de sonder le comportement magnétique du système dans la phase supraconductrice. Aucun champ magnétique interne n'a été détecté en ZF-muSR sous la température critique (T_c = 2.2K). Cela indique que la phase supraconductrice ne porte pas de moment cinétique intrinsèque. L'analyse du spectre d'asymétrie sous l'application d'un champ magnétique externe nous apprend que le système est faiblement type II par l'apparition de la signature de domaines magnétiques typique d'un réseau de vortex entre H_{c1}(0) et H_{c2}(0), respectivement de 80+/- 5 et 169.0 +/- 0.5 G. Finalement, la troisième section porte sur l'étude du champ magnétique interne dans l'antiferroaimant organique NIT-2Py. L'observation d'une dépendance en température des champs magnétiques internes aux sites d'implantation muonique par ZF-muSR confirme la présence d'une interaction à longue portée entre les moments cinétiques moléculaires. Ces valeurs de champs internes, comparées aux calculs basés sur la densité de spins obtenue par calculs de la théorie de la fonctionnelle de la densité, indiquent que la moitié des molécules se dimérisent et ne contribuent pas à l'ordre antiferromagnétique. La fraction des molécules contribuant à l'ordre antiferromagnétique sous la température critique (T_c = 1.33 +/- 0.01K) forme des chaines uniformément polarisées selon l'axe (1 0 -2). Ces chaines interagissent antiferromagnétiquement entre elles le long de l'axe (0 1 0) et ferromagnétiquement entre les plan [-1 0 2].

Inversion comique ou critique satirique ? La vue du Capitole de Hieronymus Cock (1562)

Hieronymus Cock's view of the Capitoline Hill, published in 1562 series on Roman ruins, has long been considered a useful document by historians of art and architecture for the key historical and topographical information it contains on one of Rome's most celebrated sites during the Renaissance. Beyond its documentary nature, which, as will appear, was essentially rhetorical, the view also offers much information as to how a mid sixteenth-century Flemish artist might perceive Rome's illustrious topography and celebrated ancient statuary. In other words, Cock's engraving enables us to put into practice what may be called an "archaeology of the gaze". Through previously unnoticed details, Cock invents a comical - verging on the satirical - vision of the antique sculptures proudly displayed on the famous piazza. Such an ironical reversal of Italian classical dignity is typical of the attitude of some contemporary Flemish artists, such as Pieter Brueghel, who was then close to Cock, and exposes the ambivalent position of some Northern European artists towards the classical tradition and Italian art theory. Finally, the analysis of other engravings of ruins by Hieronymus Cock where two emblematic characters - the draftsman and the 'kakker' (the one who defecates) - appear side by side, sheds light on the origin and possible significance of these comical and subversive details.

Bayesian Inference in Exponential and Pareto populations in the presence of Outliers

This thesis Entitled Bayesian inference in Exponential and pareto populations in the presence of outliers. The main theme of the present thesis is focussed on various estimation problems using the Bayesian appraoch, falling under the general category of accommodation procedures for analysing Pareto data containing outlier. In Chapter II. the problem of estimation of parameters in the classical Pareto distribution specified by the density function. In Chapter IV. we discuss the estimation of (1.19) when the sample contain a known number of outliers under three different data generating mechanisms, viz. the exchangeable model. Chapter V the prediction of a future observation based on a random sample that contains one contaminant. Chapter VI is devoted to the study of estimation problems concerning the exponential parameters under a k-outlier model.

Bayesian Analysis of Simple Step-stress Model under Weibull Lifetimes

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science & Technology, Part of this work has been supported by grants from DST and CSIR, Government of India. 2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, IIT Kanpur

3D Simultaneous Inversion for Seismic Structure and Local Hypocenters in Germany under Consideration of Seismic Anisotropy in the Upper Mantel

The main task of this work has been to investigate the effects of anisotropy onto the propagation of seismic waves along the Upper Mantle below Germany and adjacent areas. Refraction- and reflexion seismic experiments proved the existence of Upper Mantle anisotropy and its influence onto the propagation of Pn-waves. By the 3D tomographic investigations that have been done here for the crust and the upper mantle, considering the influence of anisotropy, a gap for the investigations in Europe has been closed. These investigations have been done with the SSH-Inversionprogram of Prof. Dr. M. Koch, which is able to compute simultaneously the seismic structure and hypocenters. For the investigation, a dataset has been available with recordings between the years 1975 to 2003 with a total of 60249 P- and 54212 S-phase records of 10028 seismic events. At the beginning, a precise analysis of the residuals (RES, the difference between calculated and observed arrivaltime) has been done which confirmed the existence of anisotropy for Pn-phases. The recognized sinusoidal distribution has been compensated by an extension of the SSH-program by an ellipse with a slow and rectangular fast axis with azimuth to correct the Pn-velocities. The azimuth of the fast axis has been fixed by the application of the simultaneous inversion at 25° - 27° with a variation of the velocities at +- 2.5 about an average value at 8 km/s. This new value differs from the old one at 35°, recognized in the initial residual analysis. This depends on the new computed hypocenters together with the structure. The application of the elliptical correction has resulted in a better fit of the vertical layered 1D-Model, compared to the results of preceding seismological experiments and 1D and 2D investigations. The optimal result of the 1D-inversion has been used as initial starting model for the 3D-inversions to compute the three dimensional picture of the seismic structure of the Crust and Upper Mantle. The simultaneous inversion has showed an optimization of the relocalization of the hypocenters and the reconstruction of the seismic structure in comparison to the geology and tectonic, as described by other investigations. The investigations for the seismic structure and the relocalization have been confirmed by several different tests. First, synthetic traveltime data are computed with an anisotropic variation and inverted with and without anisotropic correction. Further, tests with randomly disturbed hypocenters and traveltime data have been proceeded to verify the influence of the initial values onto the relocalization accuracy and onto the seismic structure and to test for a further improvement by the application of the anisotropic correction. Finally, the results of the work have been applied onto the Waldkirch earthquake in 2004 to compare the isotropic and the anisotropic relocalization with the initial optimal one to verify whether there is some improvement.

Slow and Smooth: A Bayesian Theory for the Combination of Local Motion Signals in Human Vision

In order to estimate the motion of an object, the visual system needs to combine multiple local measurements, each of which carries some degree of ambiguity. We present a model of motion perception whereby measurements from different image regions are combined according to a Bayesian estimator --- the estimated motion maximizes the posterior probability assuming a prior favoring slow and smooth velocities. In reviewing a large number of previously published phenomena we find that the Bayesian estimator predicts a wide range of psychophysical results. This suggests that the seemingly complex set of illusions arise from a single computational strategy that is optimal under reasonable assumptions.

Compositional ideas in the bayesian analysis of categorical data with application to dose finding clinical trials

Compositional random vectors are fundamental tools in the Bayesian analysis of categorical data. Many of the issues that are discussed with reference to the statistical analysis of compositional data have a natural counterpart in the construction of a Bayesian statistical model for categorical data. This note builds on the idea of cross-fertilization of the two areas recommended by Aitchison (1986) in his seminal book on compositional data. Particular emphasis is put on the problem of what parameterization to use

Searching for consensus in ahp-group decision making. A bayesian perspective

This paper sets out to identify the initial positions of the different decision makers who intervene in a group decision making process with a reduced number of actors, and to establish possible consensus paths between these actors. As a methodological support, it employs one of the most widely-known multicriteria decision techniques, namely, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Assuming that the judgements elicited by the decision makers follow the so-called multiplicative model (Crawford and Williams, 1985; Altuzarra et al., 1997; Laininen and Hämäläinen, 2003) with log-normal errors and unknown variance, a Bayesian approach is used in the estimation of the relative priorities of the alternatives being compared. These priorities, estimated by way of the median of the posterior distribution and normalised in a distributive manner (priorities add up to one), are a clear example of compositional data that will be used in the search for consensus between the actors involved in the resolution of the problem through the use of Multidimensional Scaling tools

Bayesian tools for zero counts in compositional data

The log-ratio methodology makes available powerful tools for analyzing compositional data. Nevertheless, the use of this methodology is only possible for those data sets without null values. Consequently, in those data sets where the zeros are present, a previous treatment becomes necessary. Last advances in the treatment of compositional zeros have been centered especially in the zeros of structural nature and in the rounded zeros. These tools do not contemplate the particular case of count compositional data sets with null values. In this work we deal with \count zeros" and we introduce a treatment based on a mixed Bayesian-multiplicative estimation. We use the Dirichlet probability distribution as a prior and we estimate the posterior probabilities. Then we apply a multiplicative modi¯cation for the non-zero values. We present a case study where this new methodology is applied. Key words: count data, multiplicative replacement, composition, log-ratio analysis