921 resultados para Bayesian Statistics, Expert Elicitation, Coral Reefs, Species Richness


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The benthic habitats of Saba Bank (17°25′N, 63°30′W) are at risk from maritime traffic, especially oil tankers (e.g., anchoring). To mitigate this risk, information is needed on the biodiversity and location of habitats to develop a zone use plan. A rapid survey to document the biodiversity of macro-algae, sponges, corals and fishes was conducted. Here we report on the richness and condition of stony coral species at 18 select sites, and we test for the effects of bottom type, depth, and distance from platform edge. Species richness was visually assessed by roving scuba diver with voucher specimens of each species collected. Coral tissue was examined for bleaching and diseases. Thirty-three coral species were documented. There were no significant differences in coral composition among bottom types or depth classes (ANOSIM, P>0.05). There was a significant difference between sites (ANOSIM, P<0.05) near and far from the platform edge. The number of coral species observed ranged from zero and one in algal dominated habitats to 23 at a reef habitat on the southern edge of the Bank. Five reef sites had stands of Acropora cervicornis, a critically endangered species on the IUCN redlist. Bleaching was evident at 82% of the sites assessed with 43 colonies bleached. Only three coral colonies were observed to have disease. Combining our findings with that of other studies, a total of 43 species have been documented from Saba Bank. The coral assemblage on the bank is representative and typical of those found elsewhere in the Caribbean. Although our findings will help develop effective protection, more information is needed on Saba Bank to create a comprehensive zone use plan. Nevertheless, immediate action is warranted to protect the diverse coral reef habitats documented here, especially those containing A. cervicornis.

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The primary objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR), a marine protected area in St John, US Virgin Islands. Surveys of habitat and fishes inside and outside of VICR were conducted in 2003-2008. Areas outside the VICR had significantly more scleractinian corals, greater habitat complexity, and greater species richness and density of reef fishes than areas inside., Areas inside and outside the VICR exhibited significant decreases in percent scleractinian coral coverage over the study period. A contrasting trend of increasing macroalgal cover was also observed. No clear effect of the severe 2005 coral bleaching event was observed suggesting other causal factors. No obvious trends in the fish community were observed across the study period. The significant decline in habitat condition, coupled with the initial incorporation of some of the more degraded reefs into the marine protected area may result in a longer time period necessary to detect positive changes in the St. John coral reef ecosystem and associated reef fish abundance and community structure.

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We have studied growth and estimated recruitment of massive coral colonies at three sites, Kaledupa, Hoga and Sampela, separated by about 1.5 km in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. There was significantly higher species richness (P<0.05), coral cover (P<0.05) and rugosity (P<0.01) at Kaledupa than at Sampela. A model for coral reef growth has been developed based on a rational polynomial function, where dx/dt is an index of coral growth with time; W is the variable (for example, coral weight, coral length or coral area), up to the power of n in the numerator and m in the denominator; a1……an and b1…bm are constants. The values for n and m represent the degree of the polynomial, and can relate to the morphology of the coral. The model was used to simulate typical coral growth curves, and tested using published data obtained by weighing coral colonies underwater in reefs on the south-west coast of Curaçao [‘Neth. J. Sea Res. 10 (1976) 285’]. The model proved an accurate fit to the data, and parameters were obtained for a number of coral species. Surface area data was obtained on over 1200 massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. The year of an individual's recruitment was calculated from knowledge of the growth rate modified by application of the rational polynomial model. The estimated pattern of recruitment was variable, with little numbers of massive corals settling and growing before 1950 at the heavily used site, Sampela, relative to the reef site with little or no human use, Kaledupa, and the intermediate site, Hoga. There was a significantly greater sedimentation rate at Sampela than at either Kaledupa (P<0.0001) or Hoga (P<0.0005). The relative mean abundance of fish families present at the reef crests at the three sites, determined using digital video photography, did not correlate with sedimentation rates, underwater visibility or lack of large non-branching coral colonies. Radial growth rates of three genera of non-branching corals were significantly lower at Sampela than at Kaledupa or at Hoga, and there was a high correlation (r=0.89) between radial growth rates and underwater visibility. Porites spp. was the most abundant coral over all the sites and at all depths followed by Favites (P<0.04) and Favia spp. (P<0.03). Colony ages of Porites corals were significantly lower at the 5 m reef flat on the Sampela reef than at the same depth on both other reefs (P<0.005). At Sampela, only 2.8% of corals on the 5 m reef crest are of a size to have survived from before 1950. The Scleractinian coral community of Sampela is severely impacted by depositing sediments which can lead to the suffocation of corals, whilst also decreasing light penetration resulting in decreased growth and calcification rates. The net loss of material from Sampela, if not checked, could result in the loss of this protective barrier which would be to the detriment of the sublittoral sand flats and hence the Sampela village.

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Using the same methodology and identical sites, we repeat a study dating from 1973 and quantify cover of hard coral species, soft corals, sponges, hard substratum and soft substratum, and density of a commercially important reef fish species, the graysby Cephalopholis cruentata, along a depth-gradient of 3-36 m oil the coral reefs of Curacao. The objective was to determine the multi-decade change in benthic coral reef cover and structural complexity, and their effect oil densities of an associated reef fish species. Total hard coral cover decreased on average from 52% in 1973 to 22% in 2003, representing a relative decline of 58%. During this time span, the cover of hard substratum increased considerably (from 11 to 58%), as did that of soft corals (from 0.1 to 2.2%), whereas the cover of sponges showed no significant change. Relative decline of hard coral cover and of reef complexity was greatest in shallow waters (near the coast), which is indicative of a combination of anthropogenic influences from shore and recent storm damage. Cover of main reef builder coral species (Agaricia spp., Siderastrea siderea, Montastrea annularis) decreased more than that of other species, and resulted in a significant decrease in reef complexity. Although density of C. cruentata was highly correlated to cover of Montastrea and Agaricia in 1973, the loss of coral cover did not show any effect on the total density of C. cruentata in 2003. However, C. cruentata showed a clear shift in density distribution from shallow water in 1973 to deep water in 2003. It call be concluded that the reefs of Curacao have degraded considerably in the last three decades, but that this has had no major effect on the population size of one commercially important coral-associated fish species.

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In the context of Bayesian statistical analysis, elicitation is the process of formulating a prior density f(.) about one or more uncertain quantities to represent a person's knowledge and beliefs. Several different methods of eliciting prior distributions for one unknown parameter have been proposed. However, there are relatively few methods for specifying a multivariate prior distribution and most are just applicable to specific classes of problems and/or based on restrictive conditions, such as independence of variables. Besides, many of these procedures require the elicitation of variances and correlations, and sometimes elicitation of hyperparameters which are difficult for experts to specify in practice. Garthwaite et al. (2005) discuss the different methods proposed in the literature and the difficulties of eliciting multivariate prior distributions. We describe a flexible method of eliciting multivariate prior distributions applicable to a wide class of practical problems. Our approach does not assume a parametric form for the unknown prior density f(.), instead we use nonparametric Bayesian inference, modelling f(.) by a Gaussian process prior distribution. The expert is then asked to specify certain summaries of his/her distribution, such as the mean, mode, marginal quantiles and a small number of joint probabilities. The analyst receives that information, treating it as a data set D with which to update his/her prior beliefs to obtain the posterior distribution for f(.). Theoretical properties of joint and marginal priors are derived and numerical illustrations to demonstrate our approach are given. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Ocean acidification threatens the survival of coral reef ecosystems worldwide. The negative effects of ocean acidification observed in many laboratory experiments have been seen in studies of naturally low-pH reefs, with little evidence to date for adaptation. Recently, we reported initial data suggesting that low-pH coral communities of the Palau Rock Islands appear healthy despite the extreme conditions in which they live. Here, we build on that observation with a comprehensive statistical analysis of benthic communities across Palau's natural acidification gradient. Our analysis revealed a shift in coral community composition but no impact of acidification on coral richness, coralline algae abundance, macroalgae cover, coral calcification, or skeletal density. However, coral bioerosion increased 11-fold as pH decreased from the barrier reefs to the Rock Island bays. Indeed, a comparison of the naturally low-pH coral reef systems studied so far revealed increased bioerosion to be the only consistent feature among them, as responses varied across other indices of ecosystem health. Our results imply that whereas community responses may vary, escalation of coral reef bioerosion and acceleration of a shift from net accreting to net eroding reef structures will likely be a global signature of ocean acidification.

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Soft corals of the family Xeniidae are particularly abundant in Red Sea coral reefs. Their success may be partly due to a strong defense mechanism against fish predation. To test this, we conducted field and aquarium experiments in which we assessed the antifeeding effect of secondary metabolites of 2 common xeniid species, Ovabunda crenata and Heteroxenia ghardaqensis. In the field experiment, the metabolites of both investigated species reduced feeding on experimental food pellets in the natural population of Red Sea reef fishes by 86 and 92% for O. crenata and H. ghardaqensis, respectively. In the aquarium experiment, natural concentration of crude extract reduced feeding on experimental food pellets in the common reef fish Thalassoma lunare (moon wrasse) by 83 and 85%, respectively. Moon wrasse feeding was even reduced at extract concentrations as low as 12.5% of the natural concentration in living soft coral tissues. To assess the potential of a structural anti-feeding defence, sclerites of O. crenata were extracted and mixed into food pellets at natural, doubled and reduced concentration without and in combination with crude extract at 25% of natural concentration, and tested in an aquarium experiment. The sclerites did not show any effect on the feeding behavior of the moon wrasse indicating that sclerites provide structural support rather than antifeeding defense. H. ghardaqensis lacks sclerites. We conclude that the conspicuous abundance of xeniid soft coral species in the Red Sea is likely a consequence of a strong chemical defence, rather than physical defences, against potential predators.

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Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are acidifying the oceans, reducing the concentration of carbonate ions ([CO32-) that calcifying organisms need to build and cement coral reefs. To date, studies of a handful of naturally acidified reef systems reveal depauperate communities, sometimes with reduced coral cover and calcification rates, consistent with results of laboratory-based studies. Here we report the existence of highly diverse, coral-dominated reef communities under chronically low pH and aragonite saturation state (Omega ar). Biological and hydrographic processes change the chemistry of the seawater moving across the barrier reefs and into Palau's Rock Island bays, where levels of acidification approach those projected for the western tropical Pacific open ocean by 2100. Nevertheless, coral diversity, cover, and calcification rates are maintained across this natural acidification gradient. Identifying the combination of biological and environmental factors that enable these communities to persist could provide important insights into the future of coral reefs under anthropogenic acidification.

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Cold-water coral (CWC) reefs constitute one of the most complex deep-sea habitats harboring a vast diversity of associated species. Like other tropical or temperate framework builders, these systems are facing an uncertain future due to several threats, such as global warming and ocean acidification. In the case of Mediterranean CWC communities, the effect may be exacerbated due to the greater capacity of these waters to absorb atmospheric CO2 compared to the global ocean. Calcification in these organisms is an energy-demanding process, and it is expected that energy requirements will be greater as seawater pH and the availability of carbonate ions decrease. Therefore, studies assessing the effect of a pH decrease in skeletal growth, and metabolic balance are critical to fully understand the potential responses of these organisms under a changing scenario. In this context, the present work aims to investigate the medium- to long-term effect of a low pH scenario on calcification and the biochemical composition of two CWCs from the Mediterranean, Dendrophyllia cornigera and Desmophyllum dianthus. After 314 d of exposure to acidified conditions, a significant decrease of 70 % was observed in Desmophyllum dianthus skeletal growth rate, while Dendrophyllia cornigera showed no differences between treatments. Instead, only subtle differences between treatments were observed in the organic matter amount, lipid content, skeletal microdensity, or porosity in both species, although due to the high variability of the results, these differences were not statistically significant. Our results also confirmed a heterogeneous effect of low pH on the skeletal growth rate of the organisms depending on their initial weight, suggesting that those specimens with high calcification rates may be the most susceptible to the negative effects of acidification.

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To evaluate the potential of community-based bird surveys in the tropics, we compared the species richness and abundances of bird functional groups that would be detected by a basic untrained observer (untrained observer survey, UOS) to a comprehensive bird species list compiled by a professional bird guide, in a coffee agroforestry landscape in the Peruvian East Andean foothills and compared functional signatures to global functional signatures of tropical bird assemblages. The submitted data comprises the transect counts of the UOS, the comprehensive bird list, ecological data of the recorded birds and information regarding the conservation status of the recorded birds from the IUCN Red List.

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The parasite community of animals is generally influenced by host physiology, ecology, and phylogeny. Therefore, sympatric and phylogenetically related hosts with similar ecologies should have similar parasite communities. To test this hypothesis we surveyed the endoparasites of 5 closely related cheilinine fishes (Labridae) from the Great Barrier Reef. They were Cheilinus chlorounts, C. trilobatus, C. fasciatils, Epibulus insidiator and OxYcheilinus diagrainnia. VVe examined the relationship between parasitological variables (richness, abundance and diversity) and host characteristics (bodv weight, diet and phuylogeny). The 5 fishes had 31 parasite species with 9-18 parasite species per fish species. Cestode larvae (mostly Tetraphyllidea) were the most abundant and prevalent parasites followed by nematodes and digeneans. Parasites, body size and diet of hosts differed between fish species. In general, body weight, diet and host phylogeny each explained some of the variation in richness and composition of parasites among the fishes. The 2 most closely related species, Cheilinus chlorourus and C. trilobatus, had broadly similar parasites but the Other fish species differed significantly in all variables. However, there was no all -encompassing pattern. This may, be because different lineages of parasites may react differently to ecological variables. We also argue that adult parasites may respond principally to host diet. In contrast, larval parasite composition may respond both to host diet and predator-prey interactions because this is the path by which many, parasites complete their life-cycles. Finally, variation in parasite phylogeny and parasite life-cycles among hosts likely increase the complexity of the system making it difficult to find all-encompassing patterns between host characteristics and parasites, particularly when all the species in rich parasite communities are considered.

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Coral diseases are a major factor in the decline of coral reefs worldwide, and a large proportion of studies focusing on disease causation use aquaria to control variables that affect disease occurrence and development. Public aquaria can therefore provide an invaluable resource to study the factors contributing to health and disease. In November 2010 the corals within the main display tank at the Horniman Museum and Gardens, London, UK, underwent a severe stress event due to reduced water quality, which resulted in death of a large number of coral colonies. Three separate colonies of two species of reef coral, Seritopora hystrix and Montipora capricornis showing signs of stress and acute tissue loss were removed from the display tank and placed in a research tank with improved water quality. Both coral species showed a significant difference in 16S rRNA gene bacterial diversity between healthy and stressed states (S. hystrix; ANOSIM, R=0.44, p=0.02 and M. capricornis; ANOSIM, R=0.33, p=0.01), and between the stressed state and the recovering corals. After four months the bacterial communities had returned to a similar state to that seen in healthy corals of the same species. The bacterial communities associated with the two coral species were distinct, despite them
being reared under identical environmental conditions. Despite the environmental perturbation being identical different visual signs were seen in each species and distinctly different bacterial communities associated with the stressed state occurred within them. Recovery of the visually healthy state was associated with a return of the bacterial community, within two months, to the pre-disturbance state. These observations suggest that coral-associated microbial communities are remarkably resilient and return to a very similar stable state following disturbance.

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Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

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Complex surveillance problems are common in biosecurity, such as prioritizing detection among multiple invasive species, specifying risk over a heterogeneous landscape, combining multiple sources of surveillance data, designing for specified power to detect, resource management, and collateral effects on the environment. Moreover, when designing for multiple target species, inherent biological differences among species result in different ecological models underpinning the individual surveillance systems for each. Species are likely to have different habitat requirements, different introduction mechanisms and locations, require different methods of detection, have different levels of detectability, and vary in rates of movement and spread. Often there is a further challenge of a lack of knowledge, literature, or data, for any number of the above problems. Even so, governments and industry need to proceed with surveillance programs which aim to detect incursions in order to meet environmental, social and political requirements. We present an approach taken to meet these challenges in one comprehensive and statistically powerful surveillance design for non-indigenous terrestrial vertebrates on Barrow Island, a high conservation nature reserve off the Western Australian coast. Here, the possibility of incursions is increased due to construction and expanding industry on the island. The design, which includes mammals, amphibians and reptiles, provides a complete surveillance program for most potential terrestrial vertebrate invaders. Individual surveillance systems were developed for various potential invaders, and then integrated into an overall surveillance system which meets the above challenges using a statistical model and expert elicitation. We discuss the ecological basis for the design, the flexibility of the surveillance scheme, how it meets the above challenges, design limitations, and how it can be updated as data are collected as a basis for adaptive management.