Stock market efficiency before and after a financial liberalisation reform:do breaks in volatility dynamics matter?

This article focuses on the deviations from normality of stock returns before and after a financial liberalisation reform, and shows the extent to which inference based on statistical measures of stock market efficiency can be affected by not controlling for breaks. Drawing from recent advances in the econometrics of structural change, it compares the distribution of the returns of five East Asian emerging markets when breaks in the mean and variance are either (i) imposed using certain official liberalisation dates or (ii) detected non-parametrically using a data-driven procedure. The results suggest that measuring deviations from normality of stock returns with no provision for potentially existing breaks incorporates substantial bias. This is likely to severely affect any inference based on the corresponding descriptive or test statistics.

Lessons for African economies from Irish and East Asian industry policy

When comparisons in terms of industrial policy lessons to be learned have taken place, it has tended to be solely vis-a-vis the ‘development state’ East Asian experience. This paper broadens the analysis and considers lessons which African countries can learn from other so-called ‘tiger’ economies including Ireland and the East and South Asian countries. We recognise that the latter are indeed clearly significant as many African countries at the time of independence had economic structures and levels of income quite similar to East Asian countries, yet have grown at vastly different rates since then. Exploring why this has been the case can thus offer important insights into possibilities for industrial policy. Yet this comes with some health warnings over East Asian experience. We suggest that another important contribution can come by looking at the Irish example, given its emphasis on corporatism rather than simply relying on state direction in the operation of industrial policy. The Irish model is also more democratic in some senses and has protected workers’ rights during the development process in contrast to the often highly dirigisite East Asian model. Overall we suggest that some immediate actions are needed, notably with regard to the financial system in small African economies. Without such changes, a poorly functioning financial system will continue to keep investment at low levels. In relation to the small size of the African economies, the paper recommends regional integration and sufficient overseas development assistance (ODA) for infrastructural development. It is also critical to note that the various small African economies each face their own industrial and economic development challenges, and that a ‘one size fits all’ approach is not appropriate; rather the key is to tailor policies and systems to the unique opportunities and development challenges in each African country.

Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok - a tulipánmánia és a Déltengeri Társaság, I. rész (Bubbles and myths, crises and explanations: tulip mania and the South Sea bubble. I.)

A 2007 óta kibontakozó válság újból divatba hozta a korai buborékok és válságok témáját. A jelenlegi válság nyomán újraéledtek a makroökónómiai viták, kétségessé vált a "nagy mérséklődés" és az újklasszikus szintézis érvényessége. Az 1634-1637 közötti holland tulipánmánia - mint az első buborék - sokféle értelmezése ismeretes: a tömeghisztéria kitörésétől a hatékony pénzügyi piacok korai példáján át a kulturális sokkig. Áttekintve ezeket, a cikk visszavezeti a tulipánmánia közismert anekdotikus leírásait az eredeti forrásokig, és megmutatja, milyen módon és céllal használták fel ezeket a közgazdászok és történészek saját elemzéseikben. / === / The accounts of early bubbles and crises are becoming fashionable again in economic discourse during the recent downturn. The article, having looked at the revival of macroeconomic debate provoked by the failure of current theory, sums up various interpretations of the Dutch tulip mania of 1634-7. These range from an outburst of popular madness, through an early example of an efficient financial market, to an instance of culture shock. Some well-known anecdotes about tulip mania are traced back to their original sources, and the article explores the various patterns and intentions in the use economists and historians have made of them.

Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok - II/1. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság (Bubbles and myths crises and explanations II/1.: the South Sea bubble)

A cikk a tulipánmániával foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2009]). A Déltengeri Társaság 1720-as fellendülése és kipukkadása mindmáig egyike a pénzügyi történelem leghíresebb és leggyakrabban emlegetett buborékainak. A közgazdaságtanban a buborék sokáig nem volt fontos téma, de az utóbbi időben ismét divatba jött. A tanulmány először a buborékmetafora néhány irodalmi példáját mutatja be, majd összefoglalja az angol államadósság kialakulását, a korai modern fiskális-militarista állam létrejöttét és a pénzügyi forradalom különböző interpretációit. A Déltengeri Társaság történetének, az adósság-részvény csere lebonyolításának és a korabeli vélemények spektrumának ismertetése után áttekintést ad arról, milyen módon és céllal használták fel az 1720-as eseményeket közgazdászok és történészek saját magyarázataikban. Ezek skálája a tudatos csalástól a befektetők irracionális mániáján át a racionális buborék kialakulásáig terjed. / === / The first part of the study (published here in 2009) was devoted to "tulipmania". This article continues the account of early bubbles and crises with the 1720 boom and bust of the South Sea Company, which is to this day one of the best known and most cited examples in history. For several decades, bubbles were not seen as an important issue in economic and financial theory, but recent events have focused attention on them again. The author introduces some historical examples of the bubble metaphor in literature, before giving an account of the emergence of British public debt and the fiscal-military state, and summarizing various interpretations of the financial revolution. An account of the South Sea Bubble, a detailed description of the debt-equity swap, and citations from some contemporary investors and observers are followed by an overview of the way the events of 1720 were used subsequently by various economists and historians in their own theorizing and explanations. The interpretations placed on it range from deliberate fraud, through irrational investment mania, to the emergence of a rational bubble.

Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok II/2. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság (Bubbles and myths crises and explanations II/2.: the South Sea bubble)

A cikk a tulipánmániával foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2009]). A Déltengeri Társaság 1720-as fellendülése és kipukkadása mindmáig egyike a pénzügyi történelem leghíresebb és leggyakrabban emlegetett buborékainak. A közgazdaságtanban a buborék sokáig nem volt fontos téma, de az utóbbi időben ismét divatba jött. A tanulmány először a buborékmetafora néhány irodalmi példáját mutatja be, majd összefoglalja az angol államadósság kialakulását, a korai modern fiskális-militarista állam létrejöttét és a pénzügyi forradalom különböző interpretációit. A Déltengeri Társaság történetének, az adósság-részvény csere lebonyolításának és a korabeli vélemények spektrumának ismertetése után áttekintést ad arról, milyen módon és céllal használták fel az 1720-as eseményeket közgazdászok és történészek saját magyarázataikban. Ezek skálája a tudatos csalástól a befektetők irracionális mániáján át a racionális buborék kialakulásáig terjed. / === / The first part of the study (published here in 2009) was devoted to "tulip-mania". This article continues the account of early bubbles and crises with the 1720 boom and bust of the South Sea Company, which remains to this day one of the best known and most cited examples in history. For several decades, bubbles were not seen as an important issue in economic and financial theory, but recent events have focused attention on them again. The author introduces some historical examples of the bubble metaphor in literature, before describing the emergence of British public debt and the fiscal/military state, and summarizing various interpretations of the financial revolution. An account of the South Sea Bubble, a detailed description of the debt-equity swap, and citations from some contemporary investors and observers are followed by an overview of how the events of 1720 were used subsequently by various economists and historians in their theorizing and explanations. Such interpretations range from deliberate fraud, through irrational investment mania, to the emergence of a rational bubble.

A Tale of Three Countries: Recovery after Banking Crises

Highlights: • Iceland, Ireland and Latvia experienced similar developments before the crisis, such as sharp increases in banks’ balance sheets and the expansion of the construction sector. However the impact of the crisis was different: Latvia was hit harder than any other country in the world. Ireland also suffered heavily, while Iceland came out from the crisis with the smallest fall in employment, despite the greatest shock to the financial system. • There were marked differences in policy mix: currency collapse in Iceland but not in Latvia, letting banks fail in Iceland but not in Ireland, and the introduction of strict capital controls only in Iceland. The speed of fiscal consolidation was fastest in Latvia and slowest in Ireland. • Economic recovery has started in all three countries and there are several encouraging signals. The programme targets in terms of fiscal adjustment, structural reforms and financial reform are on track in all three countries. • Iceland seems to have the right policy mix. • Internal devaluation in Ireland and Latvia through wage cuts did not work, because privatesector wages hardly changed. The productivity increase was significant in Ireland and moderate in Latvia, yet was the result of a greater fall in employment than the fall in output, with harmful social consequences. • The experience with the collapse of the gigantic Icelandic banking system suggests that letting banks fail when they had a faulty business model is the right choice. • There is a strong case for a European banking federation.

A globális pénzügyi központok világgazdasági szerepének változásai (The changing role of global financial centres in the world economy)

A pénzügyi központok jelentős mértékben hozzájárulhatnak a bankok nemzetköziesedéséhez. A világgazdaság története során már évszázadokkal ezelőtt létrejött a nemzetközi pénzügyi központok többsége, amelyek szerepe és súlya folytonosan változott. A vezető globális pénzügyi központokban általában mindenféle pénzügyi művelet végrehajtható, intenzíven egy helyre koncentrálódnak a pénzügyi-üzleti műveletek és tranzakciók. Az 1990-es évekre még jellemző globális triád – amit New York, London és Tokió alkotott – napjainkra már megszűnt. A globális pénzügyi központok szerepét a 2010-es években London és New York képes betölteni. Kérdéses azonban, hogy az ázsiai térségben globális pénzügyi központtá válhat-e Hong Kong, esetleg Szingapúr. _____ Financial centres significantly contribute to the internationalization of the banks. Most of the international financial centres were founded centuries ago, but their roles and magnitudes have always changed. All kinds of financial operations can be carried out in the leading global financial centres, and a wide scale of financial operations and transactions concentrate in these places. The dominance of the global triad of New York, London and Tokyo of the 1990s, has recently ended. Only two main financial centres, London and New York, can unambiguously fulfil the role of the global financial centres in the 2010s. However, it is questionable whether Hong Kong or Singapore can become global financial centres in the Asian region of the global economy.

Lessons learned from the effect of tight monetary conditions and crises on corporate capital structure

The study reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of tight monetary conditions, crisis on corporate capital structure, further creates a framework for analyzing their relation, as well as sheds light on the lessons learned and open research areas. The results highlight that the supply side of capital has an effect on corporate capital structure, though the analysis of this relation is scarce. However, the impact of tight monetary conditions on capital structure is analyzed by several studies, there is limited evidence on the financial policy and the development of financing mix during a crisis period. The impact of the 2007/08 crisis on the corporate capital structure and especially in case of firms with impaired access to external financing is scarce. The study also highlights our lack in understanding of the relation of crisis and capital structure in case of the CEE region.

See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon

D.E. and N.M. acknowledge support by the Leibniz Association (WGL) under Grant No. SAW-2013-IZW-2. F.H.M.’s research is funded through an Australian Postgraduate Award. I.O. is financially supported from TUBITAK under 2214/A program and by Ege University under the Research Project number 2015FEN028. This study received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 691037. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Leibniz Association. K.H.W. thank Rhawn F. Denniston for his wider involvement in the northwest Australian monsoon project and the Kimberley Foundation Australia for financial support for this project and Paul Wyrwoll for helpful comments. We are also grateful to Yanjun Cai for providing the Lake Qinghai record.

Financial media, globalisation, and China’s economic integration: comparing narrative construction of the Economist and Caijing

In June 2015, legal frameworks of the Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank were signed by its 57 founding members. Proposed and initiated by China, this multilateral development bank is considered to be an Asian counterpart to break the monopoly of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. In October 2015, China’s Central Bank announced a benchmark interest rate cut to combat the economic slowdown. The easing policy coincides with the European Central Bank’s announcement of doubts over US Fed’s commitment to raise interest rates. Global stock markets responded positively to China’s move, with the exception of the indexes from Wall Street (Bland, 2015; Elliott, 2015). In the meantime, China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ (or New Silk Road Economic Belt) became atopic of discourse in relation to its growing global economy, as China pledged $40 billion to trade and infrastructure projects (Bermingham, 2015). The foreign policy aims to reinforce the economic belt from western China through Central Asia towards Europe, as well as to construct maritime trading routes from coastal China through the South China Sea (Summers, 2015). In 2012, The Economist launched a new China section, to reveal the complexity of the‘meteoric rise’ of China. John Micklethwait, who was then the chief editor of the magazine, said that China’s emergence as a global power justified giving it a section of its own(Roush, 2012). In July 2015, Hu Shuli, the former chief editor of Caijing, announced the launch of a think tank and financial data service division called Caixin Insight Group, which encompasses the new Caixin China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Incooperation with with Markit Group, a principal global provider of PMI, the index soon became a widely cited economic indicator. One anecdote from November’s Caixin shows how much has changed: in a high-profile dialogue between Hu Shuli and Kevin Rudd, Hu insisted on asking questions in English; interestingly, the former Prime Minister of Australia insisted on replying in Chinese. These recent developments point to one thing: the economic ascent of China and its increasing influence on the power play between economics and politics in world markets. China has begun to take a more active role in rule making and enforcement under neoliberal frameworks. However, due to the country’s size and the scale of its economy in comparison to other countries, China’s version of globalisation has unique characteristics. The ‘Capitalist-socialist’ paradox is vital to China’s market-oriented transformation. In order to comprehend how such unique features are articulated and understood, there are several questions worth investigating in the realms of media and communication studies,such as how China’s neoliberal restructuring is portrayed and perceived by different types of interested parties, and how these portrayals are de-contextualised and re-contextualised in global or Anglo-American narratives. Therefore, based on a combination of the themes of globalisation, financial media and China’s economic integration, this thesis attempts to explore how financial media construct the narratives of China’s economic globalisation through the deployment of comparative and multi-disciplinary approaches. Two outstanding elite financial magazines, Britain’s The Economist, which has a global readership and influence, and Caijing, China’s leading financial magazine, are chosen as case studies to exemplify differing media discourses, representing, respectively, Anglo-American and Chinese socio-economic and political backgrounds, as well as their own journalistic cultures. This thesis tries to answer the questions of how and why China’s neoliberal restructuring is constructed from a globally-oriented perspective. The construction primarily involves people who are influential in business and policymaking. Hence, the analysis falls into the paradigm of elite-elite communication, which is an important but relatively less developed perspective in studying China and its globalisation. The comparing of characteristics of narrative construction are the result of the textual analysis of articles published over a ten-year period (mid-1998 to mid-2008). The corpus of samples come from the two media outlets’ coverage of three selected events:China becoming a member of the World Trade Organization, its outward direct investment, and the listing of stocks of Chinese companies in overseas exchanges, which are mutually exclusive in sample collection and collectively exhaustive in the inclusion of articles regarding China’s economic globalisation. The findings help to understand that, despite language, socio-economic and political differences, elite financial media with globally-oriented readerships share similar methods of and approaches to agenda setting, the evaluation of news prominence, the selection of frame, and the advocacy of deeply rooted neoliberal ideas. The comparison of their distinctive features reflects the different phases of building up the sense of identity in their readers as global elites, as well as the different economic interests that are aligned with the corresponding readerships. However, textual analysis is only relevant in terms of exploring how the narratives are constructed and the elements they include; textual analysis alone prevents us from seeing the obstacles and the constrains of the journalistic practices of construction. Therefore, this thesis provides a brief discussion of interviews with practitioners from the two media, in order to understand how similar or different narratives are manifested and perceived, how the concept of neoliberalism deviates from and is justified in the Chinese context, and how and for what purpose deviations arise from Western to Chinese contexts. The thesis also contributes to defining financial media in the domain of elite communication. The relevant and closely interlocking concepts of globalisation, elitism and neoliberalism are discussed, and are used as a theoretical bedrock in the analysis of texts and contexts. It is important to address the agenda-setting and ideological role of elite financial media, because of its narrative formula of infusing business facts with opinions,which is important in constructing the global elite identity as well as influencing neoliberal policy-making. On the other hand, ‘journalistic professionalism’ has been redefined, in that the elite identity is shared by the content producer, reader and the actors in the news stories emerging from the much-compressed news cycle. The professionalism of elite financial media requires a dual definition, that of being professional in the understanding of business facts and statistics, and that of being professional in the making sense of stories by deploying economic logic.

El impacto de la crisis en la industria cinematográfica en Europa

Este trabajo analiza el impacto que ha generado la crisis económica y financiera más reciente en las industrias cinematográficas de siete países miembros de la Unión Europea. Las conclusiones señalan que, en efecto, la crisis ha impactado negativamente en las industrias de España e Italia, y muy gravemente en la de Portugal, pero en el lado contrario, la del Reino Unido ha experimentado un crecimiento apreciable y las de Francia y Alemania también lo han hecho, aunque en menor medida. Y en segundo lugar, es muy notable la escasa colaboración alcanzada entre los agentes europeos.

Shining a Light on the Dark Side: How the Global Financial Crisis Exposed the Dark Side of Leadership

The global financial crisis has had innumerate outcomes around the globe. Whilst most of these are generally perceived to be negative, there are outcomes which could be considered positive for society. One such outcome is the spotlight that the financial crisis has shone on corruption within organisations and in particular, the role that destructive leaders play in the promotion of negative behaviours within organisations. This interest in identifying so-called ‘dark-side’ traits in leaders is a positive step both academically and practically. Academically, there is a limited research examining individuals with ‘dark-traits’ within organisations (Mahmut, Homewood & Stevenson, 2008). Practically, most leader derailment can be attributed to ‘dark-side’ traits and leaders with such traits are implicated in a host of issues for organisations including poor staff morale and satisfaction, bullying, poor levels of productivity, high staff turnover, unethical behaviour and even white collar crime (e.g. Boddy,2010; 2011; Lesha & Lesha, 2012; O’Boyle, Forsyth, Banks & McDaniel, 2012; Sanecka, 2013). This paper focuses on one of the ‘dark-side’ traits; psychopathy. Psychopathy is a personality disorder characterised by guiltlessness, incapacity to experience love, impulsivity, shallow emotions, superficial charm and an inability to learn from experience (Cleckley, 1941, 1982). Research has found that individuals with high levels of psychopathy can be found working within organisations and experiencing some degree of career success (e.g. Babiak, Neumann & Hare, 2010; Board & Fritzon, 2005; Boddy, 2010; Lilienfeld, Latzman, Watts, Smith & Dutton, 2014). These individuals are theoretically thought to be attracted to careers which offer power, status and monetary rewards. In particular, the finance industry has been suggested as an ideal work place for the organisational psychopath. Some authors go as far as attribute organisational psychopaths a key role in the financial crisis (Boddy, 2011). However, little research has been conducted to explore whether levels of psychopathy in employees differ across industries and what careers might be most attractive to individuals with high levels of psychopathy. This paper presents the results of a large scale survey of 265 alumni of universities in the Central England region of the UK. The survey was conducted to assess the link between levels of three factors of psychopathy (Egotism, Callousness and Antisocialism) with occupation as defined by Holland’s RIASEC model. Participants completed Brinkley, Diamond, Magaletta & Heigel’s (2008) revision of Levenson’s Self-Report Psychopathy Scale and responded to questions regarding their current occupation. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess whether levels of Egotism, Callousness and Antisocialism were predictive of occupation. The results showed that when compared to individuals who occupy job roles within the Social sector of Holland’s model, individuals with higher levels of psychopathy were more likely to be employed within Realistic, Investigative, Enterprising and Conventional roles. When comparing Social and Realistic roles, more Egotistical individuals were likely to be employed within Realistic roles. When comparing those employed in Social roles to Investigative, Enterprising and Conventional roles, individuals with higher levels of Antisocialism were more likely to be employed within the latter three occupations than within Social roles. This suggests that individuals with psychopathy do gravitate towards certain career paths. Social roles where job incumbents are required to be caring and interact with others to a large extent appear to be unattractive to individuals with high levels of psychopathy. Social roles are also associated with lower monetary rewards and are generally less prestigious (Henley, 2001). These individuals instead seek out occupations where there are higher levels of risk, power and reward. Roles in the Realistic category include those which include high levels of risk e.g. fighter pilot, fireman etc., (Cohen, Meir, Segal & Amar, 2003). Investigative careers hold the highest level of prestige and ranking. Enterprising roles include management positions where power is wielded over subordinates and sales roles, where customers can be manipulated (ACT, 2009). Conventional roles include those within the finance industry, which include some of the most financially lucrative positive available (Babiak & Hare, 2006). The above suggests that individuals with higher levels of psychopathy may be seeking to satisfy their self-centred natures by selecting careers which provide them with high levels of reward in one way or another. Alternatively, these individuals may select roles where their traits can be accepted. The importance of Antisocialism in predicting occupation may be testament to the importance of finding a career which ‘fits’ such traits. Antisocialism is generally associated with negative outcomes in the workplace (Ettner, MacLean & French, 2010). Therefore, finding environments tolerant of antisocial tendencies may be a priority for individuals with high levels of these traits. The results suggest that Enterprising, Investigative and Conventional work environments may be tolerant of Antisocialism in employees and Realistic environments tolerant of Egotism. Academically, the results show that there is value in studying ‘dark-side’ characteristics in organisations. Individuals with higher levels of psychopathic traits, do not appear to randomly enter employment. Instead, they appear to gravitate to careers which meet their needs and/or tolerate their traits. It is important to further explore what industries and positions are particularly attractive to individuals with higher levels of psychopathy and what makes them attractive to these individuals. Such knowledge is important for practitioners to be able to advise organisations as to the likely level of risk they face of employing organisational psychopaths and to enable organisations which are particularly attractive to highly psychopathic employees to design selection systems which detect undesirable traits in candidates. Furthermore, organisations can examine their culture to assess whether traits such as antisocialism are tolerated (or even rewarded) and what the implications of this are.

Qualidade de vida em epilepsia e percepção de controle de crises

The individual affective-cognitive evaluations are important factors that control the way he feels the disease impact in his life. Then, the perception of seizure control is a more important factor to evaluate Quality of Life (QoL) than the illness characteristics, such as the severity, type, sickening period and seizure frequency. This study searched for the relationship among the subjective variables (perception of seizure control) and the illness characteristics to evaluate QoL. The sample consisted of 60 individuals with chronic epilepsy, aging 18 to 70 (M=37.05; SD=11.25), chosen at randon from the ambulatory of epilepsy - HC/UNICAMP, by the Questionnaire 65. The illness characteristics were not significant, except the seizures frequency, when associated to the impairment in QoL among controlled seizures and seizures with frequency higher than 10 per month (p=0.021). The perception of control was significantly associated to QoL (p=0.005).

Período ovulatório e crises epilépticas

We prospectively follow up 80 mentally healthy women at menacme age, with chronic epilepsy and had had least one seizure in the month preceding the study. We selected 59 patients from whom we were able to observe at least three regular menstrual cycles with seizures. We defined regular, irregular cycle, perimenstrual and ovulation period. According to our concepts we have got 19, 30 and 6 patients with respectively severe, moderate and mild exacerbation of perimenstrual seizures. Using our definitions 6, 20 and 17 patients showed severe, moderate and mild accentuation of seizures during ovulation, while 15 patients showed no ovulatory accentuation. Our attention was drawn to the great number of perimenstrual and ovulatory exacerbation of seizures, according to our criteria. From 55 patients with perimenstrual accentuation of seizures 44 (74.54%) showed exacerbation during the ovulatory period. In our opinion, these data speak out in favor of the hormonal theory to explain these occurrences. We discuss these data based on the avaiable literature. We think the strogen peak is probably the main cause of the increased frequency of epileptic seizures during the ovulation period. New studies, documenting objectively the ovulation and seizures are mandatory to clarify the relationship of these aspects of the female endocrine reproductive physiology in epileptics.

Estudo de um programa de atividades fisicas adaptadas ao portador de asma bronquica : efeitos com relação a manifestação de crises de broncoespasmo

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física