Equilibrium real exchange rates, misalignment and competitiveness in the Southern Cone

Includes bibliography

Untersuchungen zum Austausch von Stickstoffdioxid (NO 2) zwischen Pflanzen und Atmosphäre

Der Austausch der NO2-Konzentration zwischen der Atmosphäre und verschiedenen Bäumen (Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur, Quercus ilex und Pinus sylvestris) wurde mit einer Dynamischen Küvette gemessen. Die NO2-Konzentrationen wurden mit einem CLD 780 TR Analysator in Verbindung mit einem PLC 762 gemessen. Die experimentellen Untersuchungen wurden im Dunkeln und unter zwei Lichtintensitäts-Niveaus (PAR, 450 und 900 µmol m-2 s-1) und sechs verschiedene NO2-Konzentrationen zwischen 0 - 5.0 ppb durchgeführt. Der stomatäre Einfluss wurde unter Einsatz des Hormons Abscisinsäure untersucht. Die Umgebungsparameter (Lufttemperatur und Luftfeuchtigkeit) wurden konstant gehalten. Die Daten zeigten klar und deutlich den dominanten Einfluss der jeweiligen Baumspezies auf die NO2-Konzentrationen innerhalb der Küvette. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit belegen bei allen Spezies eine lineare Abhängigkeit der NO2-Austauschrate mit der NO2-Umgebungskozentration und mit der stomatären Leitfähigkeit. Das Vorhandensein eines Kompensationspunkt wird nicht bestätigt.

Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Physical modeling of air injection as a scour remediation technique near gated weir stilling basins

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) manages and operates numerous water control structures that are subject to scour. In an effort to reduce scour downstream of these gated structures, laboratory experiments were performed to investigate the effect of active air-injection downstream of the terminal structure of a gated spillway on the depth of the scour hole. A literature review involving similar research revealed significant variables such as the ratio of headwater-to-tailwater depths, the diffuser angle, sediment uniformity, and the ratio of air-to-water volumetric discharge values. The experimental design was based on the analysis of several of these non-dimensional parameters. Bed scouring at stilling basins downstream of gated spillways has been identified as posing a serious risk to the spillway’s structural stability. Although this type of scour has been studied in the past, it continues to represent a real threat to water control structures and requires additional attention. A hydraulic scour channel comprised of a head tank, flow straightening section, gated spillway, stilling basin, scour section, sediment trap, and tail-tank was used to further this analysis. Experiments were performed in a laboratory channel consisting of a 1:30 scale model of the SFWMD S65E spillway structure. To ascertain the feasibility of air injection for scour reduction a proof-of-concept study was performed. Experiments were conducted without air entrainment and with high, medium, and low air entrainment rates for high and low headwater conditions. For the cases with no air entrainment it was found that there was excessive scour downstream of the structure due to a downward roller formed upon exiting the downstream sill of the stilling basin. When air was introduced vertically just downstream of, and at the same level as, the stilling basin sill, it was found that air entrainment does reduce scour depth by up to 58% depending on the air flow rate, but shifts the deepest scour location to the sides of the channel bed instead of the center. Various hydraulic flow conditions were tested without air injection to verify which scenario caused more scour. That scenario, uncontrolled free, in which water does not contact the gate and the water elevation in the stilling basin is lower than the spillway crest, would be used for the remainder of experiments testing air injection. Various air flow rates, diffuser elevations, air hole diameters, air hole spacings, diffuser angles and widths were tested in over 120 experiments. Optimal parameters include air injection at a rate that results in a water-to-air ratio of 0.28, air holes 1.016mm in diameter the entire width of the stilling basin, and a vertically orientated injection pattern. Detailed flow measurements were collected for one case using air injection and one without. An identical flow scenario was used for each experiment, namely that of a high flow rate and upstream headwater depth and a low tailwater depth. Equilibrium bed scour and velocity measurements were taken using an Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter at nearly 3000 points. Velocity data was used to construct a vector plot in order to identify which flow components contribute to the scour hole. Additionally, turbulence parameters were calculated in an effort to help understand why air-injection reduced bed scour. Turbulence intensities, normalized mean flow, normalized kinetic energy, and anisotropy of turbulence plots were constructed. A clear trend emerged that showed air-injection reduces turbulence near the bed and therefore reduces scour potential.

Bilateral exchange rates and jobs

We study the labor market effects of realignment in fixed bilateral exchange rates, such as China's peg to the US dollar. We employ the open economy model by de Melo and Robinson to identify the core parameters of the real, trade side of the economy driving the unemployment effects of bilateral exchange rate realignment. A small open economy version of the model is explored analytically and a large multicountry version numerically. Analytics in the small open economy model show that unemployment effects of adjusting of a bilateral peg hinge on the fraction exported to and imported from the trading partner. A larger fraction exported to and a smaller fraction imported from the trading partner make it more likely that revaluation of a trading partner's currency has beneficial effects. Numerics in the large economy model show that Chinese revaluation can generate both positive and negative unemployment effects depending upon underlying parameter values. Adverse unemployment effects can go along with an improving trade balance.

Efficient Unit Root Tests of real Exchange Rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era

We apply the efficient unit-roots tests of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), and Elliott (1998) to twenty-one real exchange rates using monthly data of the G-7 countries from the post-Bretton Woods floating exchange rate period. Our results indicate that, for eighteen out of the twenty-one real exchange rates, the null hypothesis of a unit root can be rejected at the 10% significance level or better using the Elliot et al (1996) DF-GLS test. The unit-root null hypothesis is also rejected for one additional real exchange rate when we allow for one endogenously determined break in the time series of the real exchange rate as in Perron (1997). In all, we find favorable evidence to support long-run purchasing power parity in nineteen out of twenty-one real exchange rates. Second, we find no strong evidence to suggest that the use of non-U.S. dollar-based real exchange rates tend to produce more favorable result for long-run PPP than the use of U.S. dollar-based real exchange rates as Lothian (1998) has concluded.

Negative effects of ocean acidification on calcification vary within the coccolithophore genus Calcidiscus

A large percentage of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans, causing chemical changes in surface waters known as ocean acidification (OA). Despite the high interest and increased pace of OA research to understand the effects of OA on marine organisms, many ecologically important organisms remain unstudied. Calcidiscus is a heavily calcified coccolithophore genus that is widespread and genetically and morphologically diverse. It contributes substantially to global calcium carbonate production, organic carbon production, oceanic carbon burial, and ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange. Despite the importance of this genus, relatively little work has examined its responses to OA. We examined changes in growth, morphology, and carbon allocation in multiple strains of Calcidiscus leptoporus in response to ocean acidification. We also, for the first time, examined the OA response of Calcidiscus quadriperforatus, a larger and more heavily calcified Calcidiscus congener. All Calcidiscus coccolithophores responded negatively to OA with impaired coccolith morphology and a decreased ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon (PIC:POC). However, strains responded variably; C. quadriperforatus showed the most sensitivity, while the most lightly calcified strain of C. leptoporus showed little response to OA. Our findings suggest that calcium carbonate production relative to organic carbon production by Calcidiscus coccolithophores may decrease in future oceans and that Calcidiscus distributions may shift if more resilient strains and species become dominant in assemblages. This study demonstrates that variable responses to OA may be strain or species specific in a way that is closely linked to physiological traits, such as cellular calcite quota.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, mortality and hatching rate, size and mass of Clupea harengus during experiments, 2011

Due to atmospheric accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in surface seawater increases and the pH decreases. This process known as ocean acidification might have severe effects on marine organisms and ecosystems. The present study addresses the effect of ocean acidification on early developmental stages, the most sensitive stages in life history, of the Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus L.). Eggs of the Atlantic herring were fertilized and incubated in artificially acidified seawater (pCO2 1260, 1859, 2626, 2903, 4635 µatm) and a control treatment (pCO2 480 µatm) until the main hatch of herring larvae occurred. The development of the embryos was monitored daily and newly hatched larvae were sampled to analyze their morphometrics, and their condition by measuring the RNA/DNA ratios. Elevated pCO2 neither affected the embryogenesis nor the hatch rate. Furthermore the results showed no linear relationship betweenpCO2 and total length, dry weight, yolk sac area and otolith area of the newly hatched larvae. For pCO2 and RNA/DNA ratio, however, a significant negative linear relationship was found. The RNA concentration at hatching was reduced at higher pCO2 levels, which could lead to a decreased protein biosynthesis. The results indicate that an increased pCO2 can affect the metabolism of herring embryos negatively. Accordingly, further somatic growth of the larvae could be reduced. This can have consequences for the larval fish, since smaller and slow growing individuals have a lower survival potential due to lower feeding success and increased predation mortality. The regulatory mechanisms necessary to compensate for effects of hypercapnia could therefore lead to lower larval survival. Since the recruitment of fish seems to be determined during the early life stages, future research on the factors influencing these stages are of great importance in fisheries science.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and hatching rate, malformation rate, metamorphosis rate and shell growth of the Pacific abalone in a laboratory experiment

The hatching process of the Pacific abalone Haliotis discus hannai was prolonged at a pH of 7.6 and pH 7.3, and the embryonic developmental success was reduced. The hatching rate at pH 7.3 was significantly (10.8%) lower than that of the control (pH 8.2). The malformation rates at pH 7.9 and pH 8.2 were less than 20% but were 53.8% and 77.3% at pH 7.6 and pH 7.3, respectively. When newly hatched larvae were incubated for 48 h at pH 7.3, only 2.7% of the larvae settled, while more than 70% of the larvae completed settlement in the other three pH treatments. However, most 24 h old larvae could complete metamorphosis in all four pH treatments. Overall, a 0.3-unit reduction in water pH will produce no negative effect on the early development of the Pacific abalone, but further reduction in pH to the values predicted for seawater by the end of this century will have strong detrimental effects.

Negative effects of ocean acidification on calcification vary within the coccolithophore genus Calcidiscus

A large percentage of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans, causing chemical changes in surface waters known as ocean acidification (OA). Despite the high interest and increased pace of OA research to understand the effects of OA on marine organisms, many ecologically important organisms remain unstudied. Calcidiscus is a heavily calcified coccolithophore genus that is widespread and genetically and morphologically diverse. It contributes substantially to global calcium carbonate production, organic carbon production, oceanic carbon burial, and ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange. Despite the importance of this genus, relatively little work has examined its responses to OA. We examined changes in growth, morphology, and carbon allocation in multiple strains of Calcidiscus leptoporus in response to ocean acidification. We also, for the first time, examined the OA response of Calcidiscus quadriperforatus, a larger and more heavily calcified Calcidiscus congener. All Calcidiscus coccolithophores responded negatively to OA with impaired coccolith morphology and a decreased ratio of particulate inorganic to organic carbon (PIC:POC). However, strains responded variably; C. quadriperforatus showed the most sensitivity, while the most lightly calcified strain of C. leptoporus showed little response to OA. Our findings suggest that calcium carbonate production relative to organic carbon production by Calcidiscus coccolithophores may decrease in future oceans and that Calcidiscus distributions may shift if more resilient strains and species become dominant in assemblages. This study demonstrates that variable responses to OA may be strain or species specific in a way that is closely linked to physiological traits, such as cellular calcite quota.

Effects of ocean acidification on the photosynthetic performance, carbonic anhydrase activity and growth of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera

Under ocean acidification (OA), the 200 % increase in CO2(aq) and the reduction of pH by 0.3-0.4 units are predicted to affect the carbon physiology and growth of macroalgae. Here we examined how the physiology of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera is affected by elevated pCO2/low pH. Growth and photosynthetic rates, external and internal carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity, HCO3 (-) versus CO2 use were determined over a 7-day incubation at ambient pCO2 400 µatm/pH 8.00 and a future OA treatment of pCO2 1200 µatm/pH 7.59. Neither the photosynthetic nor growth rates were changed by elevated CO2 supply in the OA treatment. These results were explained by the greater use of HCO3 (-) compared to CO2 as an inorganic carbon (Ci) source to support photosynthesis. Macrocystis is a mixed HCO3 (-) and CO2 user that exhibits two effective mechanisms for HCO3 (-) utilization; as predicted for species that possess carbon-concentrating mechanisms (CCMs), photosynthesis was not substantially affected by elevated pCO2. The internal CA activity was also unaffected by OA, and it remained high and active throughout the experiment; this suggests that HCO3 (-) uptake via an anion exchange protein was not affected by OA. Our results suggest that photosynthetic Ci uptake and growth of Macrocystis will not be affected by elevated pCO2/low pH predicted for the future, but the combined effects with other environmental factors like temperature and nutrient availability could change the physiological response of Macrocystis to OA. Therefore, further studies will be important to elucidate how this species might respond to the global environmental change predicted for the ocean.

Trade, Exchange Rates, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in East Asia: Why the Electronics Cycle Matters

Against the background of increasing regional trade and investment, there is growing interest in monetary and macroeconomic policy coordination in East Asia. Although there is a sizable literature on macroeconomic linkages among East Asian countries and the potential merit of policy coordination in the region, the existing studies tend to examine these issues exclusively in terms of macroeconomic variables and do not consider how these aggregate variables are influenced by one prominent feature of a number of East Asian economies: their heavy dependence on the electronics industry. Although active engagement in the global electronics industry has been a powerful growth engine for the Asian countries, it has also left their economies vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations in the world electronics market. As the cycle of the global electronics industry exerts profound impacts on the medium-term dynamics of the Asian economies, it is imperative to take an explicit account of its influence when studying the way in which the regional economies are linked to one another and how this relationship can be altered by a specific policy initiative. We illustrate the importance of this point by examining recent studies on: (1) trade competition between China andother Asian countries and the role of the Chinese renminbi therein; and (2) the effect offluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate on the regional economies.

Sources of fluctuations in parallel exchange rates and policy reform in Myanmar

Myanmar maintained a multiple exchange rate system, and the parallel market exchange rate was left untamed. In the last two decades, the Myanmar kyat exchange rate of the parallel market has exhibited the sharpest fluctuations among Southeast Asian currencies in real terms. Since the move to a managed float regime in April 2012, the question arises of whether exchange rate policies will be effective in stabilizing the real exchange rate. This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate using Blanchard and Quah’s (1989) structural vector autoregression model. As nominal shocks can be created by exchange rate policies, a persistent impact of a nominal shock implies more room for exchange rate policies. Decomposition of the fluctuations into nominal and real shocks indicates that the impact of nominal shocks is small and quickly diminishes, implying that complementary sterilization is necessary for effective foreign exchange market interventions.