Exceptional or just well connected? Political entrepreneurs and brokers in policy making

Policy brokers and policy entrepreneurs are assumed to have a decisive impact on policy outcomes. Their access to social and political resources is contingent on their influence on other agents. In social network analysis (SNA), entrepreneurs are often closely associated with brokers, because both are agents presumed to benefit from bridging structural holes; for example, gaining advantage through occupying a strategic position in relational space. Our aim here is twofold. First, to conceptually and operationally differentiate policy brokers from policy entrepreneurs premised on assumptions in the policy-process literature; and second, via SNA, to use the output of core algorithms in a cross-sectional analysis of political brokerage and political entrepreneurship. We attempt to simplify the use of graph algebra in answering questions relevant to policy analysis by placing each algorithm within its theoretical context. In the methodology employed, we first identify actors and graph their relations of influence within a specific policy event; then we select the most central actors; and compare their rank in a series of statistics that capture different aspects of their network advantage. We examine betweenness centrality, positive and negative Bonacich power, Burt’s effective size and constraint and honest brokerage as paradigmatic. We employ two case studies to demonstrate the advantages and limitations of each algorithm for differentiating between brokers and entrepreneurs: one on Swiss climate policy and one on EU competition and transport policy.

Linking livelihood strategies with a regional level landscape mosaic to explore trade-offs between forest conservation and human wellbeing in a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar contains the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by diverse small-scale agricultural mosaics. There is high deforestation mainly caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice for subsistence. Today, large protected areas restrict land users’ access to forests to collect wood and other forest products. Moreover, they are no more able to expand their cultivated land, which leads to shorter shifting cultivation cycles and decreasing plot sizes for irrigated rice and cash crop cultivation. Cash crop production of clove and vanilla is exposed to risks such as extreme inter-annual price fluctuations, pests and cyclones. In the absence of work opportunities, agricultural extension services and micro-finance schemes people are stuck in a poverty trap. New development strategies are needed to mitigate the trade-offs between forest conservation and human well-being. As landscape composition and livelihood strategies vary across the region, these strategies need to be spatially differentiated to avoid implementing generic solutions, which do not fit the local context. However, up to date, little is known about the spatial patterns of shifting cultivation and other land use systems at the regional level. This is mainly due to the high spatial and temporal dynamics inherent to shifting cultivation, which makes it difficult to monitor the dynamics of this land use system with remote sensing methods. Furthermore, knowledge about land users’ livelihood strategies and the risks and opportunities they face stems from very few local case studies. To overcome this challenge, firstly, we used remote sensing data and a landscape mosaic approach to delineate the main landscape types at the regional level. Secondly, we developed a land user typology based on socio-ecological data from household surveys in 45 villages spread throughout the region. Combining the land user typology with the landscape mosaic map allowed us to reveal spatial patterns of the interaction between landscapes and people and to better understand the trade-offs between forest conservation and local wellbeing. While shifting cultivation systems are being transformed into more intensive permanent agricultural systems in many countries around the globe, Madagascar seems to be an exception to this trend. Linking land cover information to human-environmental interactions over large areas is crucial to designing policies and to inform decision making for a more sustainable development of this resource-rich but poverty-prone context.

BAYESIAN STATISTICAL METHODS IN GENE-ENVIRONMENT AND GENE-GENE INTERACTION STUDIES

Complex diseases such as cancer result from multiple genetic changes and environmental exposures. Due to the rapid development of genotyping and sequencing technologies, we are now able to more accurately assess causal effects of many genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies have been able to localize many causal genetic variants predisposing to certain diseases. However, these studies only explain a small portion of variations in the heritability of diseases. More advanced statistical models are urgently needed to identify and characterize some additional genetic and environmental factors and their interactions, which will enable us to better understand the causes of complex diseases. In the past decade, thanks to the increasing computational capabilities and novel statistical developments, Bayesian methods have been widely applied in the genetics/genomics researches and demonstrating superiority over some regular approaches in certain research areas. Gene-environment and gene-gene interaction studies are among the areas where Bayesian methods may fully exert its functionalities and advantages. This dissertation focuses on developing new Bayesian statistical methods for data analysis with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions, as well as extending some existing methods for gene-environment interactions to other related areas. It includes three sections: (1) Deriving the Bayesian variable selection framework for the hierarchical gene-environment and gene-gene interactions; (2) Developing the Bayesian Natural and Orthogonal Interaction (NOIA) models for gene-environment interactions; and (3) extending the applications of two Bayesian statistical methods which were developed for gene-environment interaction studies, to other related types of studies such as adaptive borrowing historical data. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model framework that allows us to investigate the genetic and environmental effects, gene by gene interactions (epistasis) and gene by environment interactions in the same model. It is well known that, in many practical situations, there exists a natural hierarchical structure between the main effects and interactions in the linear model. Here we propose a model that incorporates this hierarchical structure into the Bayesian mixture model, such that the irrelevant interaction effects can be removed more efficiently, resulting in more robust, parsimonious and powerful models. We evaluate both of the 'strong hierarchical' and 'weak hierarchical' models, which specify that both or one of the main effects between interacting factors must be present for the interactions to be included in the model. The extensive simulation results show that the proposed strong and weak hierarchical mixture models control the proportion of false positive discoveries and yield a powerful approach to identify the predisposing main effects and interactions in the studies with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions. We also compare these two models with the 'independent' model that does not impose this hierarchical constraint and observe their superior performances in most of the considered situations. The proposed models are implemented in the real data analysis of gene and environment interactions in the cases of lung cancer and cutaneous melanoma case-control studies. The Bayesian statistical models enjoy the properties of being allowed to incorporate useful prior information in the modeling process. Moreover, the Bayesian mixture model outperforms the multivariate logistic model in terms of the performances on the parameter estimation and variable selection in most cases. Our proposed models hold the hierarchical constraints, that further improve the Bayesian mixture model by reducing the proportion of false positive findings among the identified interactions and successfully identifying the reported associations. This is practically appealing for the study of investigating the causal factors from a moderate number of candidate genetic and environmental factors along with a relatively large number of interactions. The natural and orthogonal interaction (NOIA) models of genetic effects have previously been developed to provide an analysis framework, by which the estimates of effects for a quantitative trait are statistically orthogonal regardless of the existence of Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) within loci. Ma et al. (2012) recently developed a NOIA model for the gene-environment interaction studies and have shown the advantages of using the model for detecting the true main effects and interactions, compared with the usual functional model. In this project, we propose a novel Bayesian statistical model that combines the Bayesian hierarchical mixture model with the NOIA statistical model and the usual functional model. The proposed Bayesian NOIA model demonstrates more power at detecting the non-null effects with higher marginal posterior probabilities. Also, we review two Bayesian statistical models (Bayesian empirical shrinkage-type estimator and Bayesian model averaging), which were developed for the gene-environment interaction studies. Inspired by these Bayesian models, we develop two novel statistical methods that are able to handle the related problems such as borrowing data from historical studies. The proposed methods are analogous to the methods for the gene-environment interactions on behalf of the success on balancing the statistical efficiency and bias in a unified model. By extensive simulation studies, we compare the operating characteristics of the proposed models with the existing models including the hierarchical meta-analysis model. The results show that the proposed approaches adaptively borrow the historical data in a data-driven way. These novel models may have a broad range of statistical applications in both of genetic/genomic and clinical studies.

Ocean temperature measured by elephant seal-CTDs in the Southern Ocean with links to datasets

The potential effects of ocean warming on marine predators are largely unknown, though the impact on the distribution of prey in vertical space may have far reaching impacts on diving predators such as southern elephant seals. We used data from satellite-tracked southern elephant seals from Marion Island to investigate the relationship between their dive characteristics (dive depths, dive durations and time-at-depth index values) and environmental variables (temperature at depth, depth of maximum temperature below 100 m, frontal zone and bathymetry) as well as other demographic and behavioural variables (migration stage, age-class, track day and vertical diel strategy). While other variables, such as bathymetry and vertical diel strategy also influenced dive depth, our results consistently indicated a significant influence of temperature at depth on dive depths. This relationship was positive for all groups of animals, indicating that seals dived to deeper depths when foraging in warmer waters. Female seals adjusted their dive depths proportionally more than males in warmer water. Dive durations were also influenced by temperature at depth, though to a lesser extent. Results from time-at-depth indices showed that both male and female seals spent less time at targeted dive depths in warmer water, and were presumably less successful foragers when diving in warmer water. Continued warming of the Southern Ocean may result in the distribution of prey for southern elephant seals shifting either poleward and/or to increasing depths. Marion Island elephant seals are expected to adapt their ranging and diving behaviour accordingly, though such changes may result in greater physiological costs associated with foraging.

Counselors' education in complex contexts with special reference to Latin America

This paper makes reference to the importance lying, at present, on the professional education of counselors. It goes through the history of the different pre-scientific and scientific stages of counseling, and it points out the main representatives in Latin America . It also shows the current state of the specialization, taking as an antecedent some in-depth, widely encompassing research carried out in the European Union in this area. Coincidences and differences are exposed here in terms of professional profiles, university degrees, institutional dependence, up-dating processes and modes of intervention. The current state of postgraduate studies at university is also touched upon, and the different proposals for further education in Latin America are analyzed as well as their dependence upon an undergraduate degree in Psychology, Educational Sciences or Psycho-pedagogy. Finally, this paper places counseling within the complexity and the need to provide all-encompassing and integrative answers which require a wide and deep enough education so as to answer all these issues and problems.

Counselors' education in complex contexts with special reference to Latin America

This paper makes reference to the importance lying, at present, on the professional education of counselors. It goes through the history of the different pre-scientific and scientific stages of counseling, and it points out the main representatives in Latin America . It also shows the current state of the specialization, taking as an antecedent some in-depth, widely encompassing research carried out in the European Union in this area. Coincidences and differences are exposed here in terms of professional profiles, university degrees, institutional dependence, up-dating processes and modes of intervention. The current state of postgraduate studies at university is also touched upon, and the different proposals for further education in Latin America are analyzed as well as their dependence upon an undergraduate degree in Psychology, Educational Sciences or Psycho-pedagogy. Finally, this paper places counseling within the complexity and the need to provide all-encompassing and integrative answers which require a wide and deep enough education so as to answer all these issues and problems.

Dive depth and dive duration data of subadult and adult, male and female southern elephant seals from Marion Island between 2004 and 2008 with links to datasets

Sexual segregation in habitat use occurs in a number of animal species, including southern elephant seals, where differences in migration localities and dive behaviour between sexes have been recorded. Due to the extreme sexual size dimorphism exhibited by southern elephant seals, it is unclear whether observed differences in dive behaviour are due to increased physiological capacity of males, compared to females, or differences in activity budgets and foraging behaviour. Here we use a mixed-effects modelling approach to investigate the effects of sex, size, age and individual variation on a number of dive parameters measured on southern elephant seals from Marion Island. Although individual variation accounted for substantial portions of total model variance for many response variables, differences in maximum and targeted dive depths were always influenced by sex, and only partly by body length. Conversely, dive durations were always influenced by body length, while sex was not identified as a significant influence. These results support hypotheses that physiological capability associated with body size is a limiting factor on dive durations. However, differences in vertical depth use appear to be the result of differences in forage selection between sexes, rather than a by-product of the size dimorphism displayed by this species. This provides further support for resource partitioning and possible avoidance of inter-sexual competition in southern elephant seals.

At surface behaviour data of juvenile southern elephant seals from Marion Island between 2001 and 2006 with links to datasets

Marine mammals forage in dynamic environments characterized by variables that are continuously changing in relation to large-scale oceanographic processes. In the present study, behavioural states of satellite-tagged juvenile southern elephant seals (n = 16) from Marion Island were assessed for each reliable location, using variation in turning angle and speed in a state-space modelling framework. A mixed modelling approach was used to analyse the behavioural response of juvenile southern elephant seals to sea-surface temperature and proximity to frontal and bathymetric features. The findings emphasised the importance of frontal features as potentially rewarding areas for foraging juvenile southern elephant seals and provided further evidence of the importance of the area west of Marion Island for higher trophic-level predators. The importance of bathymetric features during the transit phase of juvenile southern elephant seal migrations indicates the use of these features as possible navigational cues.

Counselors' education in complex contexts with special reference to Latin America

This paper makes reference to the importance lying, at present, on the professional education of counselors. It goes through the history of the different pre-scientific and scientific stages of counseling, and it points out the main representatives in Latin America . It also shows the current state of the specialization, taking as an antecedent some in-depth, widely encompassing research carried out in the European Union in this area. Coincidences and differences are exposed here in terms of professional profiles, university degrees, institutional dependence, up-dating processes and modes of intervention. The current state of postgraduate studies at university is also touched upon, and the different proposals for further education in Latin America are analyzed as well as their dependence upon an undergraduate degree in Psychology, Educational Sciences or Psycho-pedagogy. Finally, this paper places counseling within the complexity and the need to provide all-encompassing and integrative answers which require a wide and deep enough education so as to answer all these issues and problems.

Dive depth and dive duration data of female southern elephant seals from Marion Island between 2004 and 2008 with links to datasets

The at-sea behaviour of marine top predators provides valuable insights into the distribution of prey species and strategies used by predators to exploit patchily distributed resources. We describe the water column usage and dive strategies of female southern elephant seals from Marion Island tracked between 2004 and 2008. Dives representing increases in forage effort were identified using a method that combines dive type analyses and the calculation of relative amounts of time that animals spend in the bottom phases of dives. Results from this analysis indicate that female elephant seals from Marion Island tend to display lower levels of forage effort closer to the island and display intensive opportunistic forage bouts that occur at a minimum distance of approximately 215 km from the island. Females from Marion Island dived deeper and for longer periods of time, compared to females from other populations. Most animals displayed positive diel vertical migration, evidently foraging pelagically on vertically migrating prey. A few animals displayed periods of reverse (negative) diel vertical migration, however, diving to deeper depths at night, compared to daytime. This behaviour is difficult to explain and prey species targeted during such periods unknown. Our results illustrate plasticity in foraging behaviour of southern elephant seals, as well as inter-population differences in forage strategies.

Dive depth and dive duration data of male southern elephant seals from Marion Island between 2004 and 2008 with links to datasets

We describe the habitat use of 22 male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) satellite tagged at Marion Island between 2004 and 2008. While a few areas of increased utilization appeared to be associated with areas of shallower bathymetry (such as sea-floor ridges and fracture zones), seals in our study did not target other areas of shallow bathymetry within close proximity to Marion Island. Rather, most elephant seals foraged pelagically over very deep water where much variation was evident in diel vertical migration strategies. These strategies resulted in generally deeper and longer dives than what has been reported for male elephant seals from other colonies. No significant differences were recorded for dive durations or dive depths between adults and sub-adults. However, younger animals displayed a positive relationship between dive durations and age, as well as between dive depths and age, while these relationships became negative for older animals. Mixed model outputs suggested that seals increased their aerobic fitness as migrations progressed, enabling them to undertake longer dives. We conclude that Marion Island male elephant seals exhibit much variability in dive strategy and are seemingly capable of exploiting a range of different prey types occurring in various depth layers.

Pteropod sedimentation at AWI HAUSGARTEN at two different sites from 2004 to 2011

Pteropods are important organisms in high-latitude ecosystems, and they are expected to severely suffer from climate change in the near future. In this study, sedimentation patterns of two pteropod species, the polar Limacina helicina and the subarctic boreal L. retroversa, are presented. Time series data received by moored sediment traps at the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Observatory HAUSGARTEN in eastern Fram Strait were analyzed during the years 2008 to 2012. Results were derived from four different deployment depths (~200, 1,250, 2,400, and 2,550 m) at two different sites (79° N, 04°20' E; 79°43' N, 04°30' E). A species-specific sedimentation pattern was present at all depths and at both sites showing maximal flux rates during September/October for L. helicina and in November/December for L. retroversa. The polar L. helicina was outnumbered by L. retroversa (55-99 %) at both positions and at all depths supporting the recently observed trend toward the dominance of the subarctic boreal species. The largest decrease in pteropod abundance occurred within the mesopelagic zone (~200-1,250 m), indicating loss via microbial degradation and grazing. Pteropod carbonate (aragonite) amounted up to ~75 % of the total carbonate flux at 200 m and 2-13 % of the aragonite found in the shallow traps arrived at the deep sediment traps (~160 m above the seafloor), revealing the significance of pteropods in carbonate export at Fram Strait. Our results emphasize the relevance and the need for continuation of long-term studies to detect and trace changes in pteropod abundances and community composition and thus in the vertical transport of aragonite.

Relative sensitivity of soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna to increased CO2 and experimental stress

We used a controlled CO2 perturbation experiment to test hypotheses about changes in diversity, composition and structure of soft-bottom intertidal macrobenthic assemblages, under realistic and locally relevant scenarios of seawater acidification. Patches of undisturbed sediment were collected from 2 types of intertidal sedimentary habitat in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (South Portugal) and exposed to 2 levels of seawater acidification (pH reduced by 0.3 and 0.6 units) and 1 unmanipulated (control) level. After 75 d the assemblages differed significantly between the 2 types of sediment and between field controls and the ex situ treatments, but not among the 3 pH levels tested. The naturally high values of total alkalinity buffered seawater from the changes imposed on carbonate chemistry and may have contributed to offsetting acidification at the local scale. Observed differences on biota were strongly related to the organic matter content and grain-size of the sediments, particularly to the fractions of medium and coarse sand. Soft-bottom intertidal macrofauna was significantly affected by the stress of being held in an artificial environment, but not by CO2-induced seawater acidification. Given the previously observed variations in the sensitivities of marine organisms to seawater acidification, direct extrapolations of the present findings to different regions or other types of assemblages do not seem advisable. However, the contribution of ex situ studies to the assessment of ecosystem-level responses to environmental disturbances could generally be improved by incorporating adequate field controls in the experimental design.