Determinants Of Firm Terminal Value: The Perspective Of North American And European Financial Analysts

Company valuation models attempt to estimate the value of a company in two stages: (1) comprising of a period of explicit analysis and (2) based on unlimited production period of cash flows obtained through a mathematical approach of perpetuity, which is the terminal value. In general, these models, whether they belong to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), the Discount Cash Flow (DCF), or RIM (Residual Income Models) group, discount one attribute (dividends, free cash flow, or results) to a given discount rate. This discount rate, obtained in most cases by the CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) or APT (Arbitrage pricing theory) allows including in the analysis the cost of invested capital based on the risk taking of the attributes. However, one cannot ignore that the second stage of valuation that is usually 53-80% of the company value (Berkman et al., 1998) and is loaded with uncertainties. In this context, particular attention is needed to estimate the value of this portion of the company, under penalty of the assessment producing a high level of error. Mindful of this concern, this study sought to collect the perception of European and North American financial analysts on the key features of the company that they believe contribute most to its value. For this feat, we used a survey with closed answers. From the analysis of 123 valid responses using factor analysis, the authors conclude that there is great importance attached (1) to the life expectancy of the company, (2) to liquidity and operating performance, (3) to innovation and ability to allocate resources to R&D, and (4) to management capacity and capital structure, in determining the value of a company or business in long term. These results contribute to our belief that we can formulate a model for valuating companies and businesses where the results to be obtained in the evaluations are as close as possible to those found in the stock market

El impacto del desarrollo del café en un territorio no cafetalero: Conformación del municipio de mozos de Colotenango en Guatemala, 1877-1947.

ResumenEste artículo analiza cómo un territorio mam en el marginal altiplano guatemalteco, Colotenango, se articuló en el siglo XIX con la economía liberal, como municipio de mozos para las fincas agroexportadoras de café ubicadas en la bocacosta. Siendo un territorio no apto para el cultivo del café, la política estatal de impulso de la economía vinculada a ese producto tuvo efectos devastadores para los municipios del altiplano indígena, como fue el caso de Colotenango. Especialmente, se explora el papel de la Municipalidad en el sistema agroexportador, sustrato de los permanentes conflictos jurisdiccionales que existen en la zona.AbstractThis article analyzes the way in which Colotenango, a mam territory in the impoverished Guatemalan highlands, became a part of the liberal economy in the nineteenth century by constituting a municipio de mozos for the coffee export plantations located in the coastal region. Since this land had traditionally been considered not apt for coffee-growing purposes, the governmental policy aimed at boosting the economy based on this product, had devastating effects on the municipalities of the indigenous highlands, such as the case of Colotenango. Particularly, this article delves into the role played by the Municipality in the agricultural export system, which became the essence of continuous jurisdictional conflicts in the region still present today.