Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of a new mandatory reporting law on reporting and identification of child sexual abuse: A seven year time trend analysis

Child sexual abuse is widespread and difficult to detect. To enhance case identification, many societies have enacted mandatory reporting laws requiring designated professionals, most often police, teachers, doctors and nurses, to report suspected cases to government child welfare agencies. Little research has explored the effects of introducing a reporting law on the number of reports made, and the outcomes of those reports. This study explored the impact of a new legislative mandatory reporting duty for child sexual abuse in the State of Western Australia over seven years. We analysed data about numbers and outcomes of reports by mandated reporters, for periods before the law (2006-08) and after the law (2009-12). Results indicate that the number of reports by mandated reporters of suspected child sexual abuse increased by a factor of 3.7, from an annual mean of 662 in the three year pre-law period to 2448 in the four year post-law period. The increase in the first two post-law years was contextually and statistically significant. Report numbers stabilised in 2010-12, at one report per 210 children. The number of investigated reports increased threefold, from an annual mean of 451 in the pre-law period to 1363 in the post-law period. Significant decline in the proportion of mandated reports that were investigated in the first two post-law years suggested the new level of reporting and investigative need exceeded what was anticipated. However, a subsequent significant increase restored the pre-law proportion, suggesting systemic adaptive capacity. The number of substantiated investigations doubled, from an annual mean of 160 in the pre-law period to 327 in the post-law period, indicating twice as many sexually abused children were being identified.

Linear transconductor with flipped voltage follower in 130 nm CMOS

This paper presents a modified design method for linear transconductor circuit in 130 nm CMOS technology to improve linearity, robustness against process induced threshold voltage variability and reduce harmonic distortion. Source follower in the adaptively biased differential pair (ABDP) linear transconductor circuit is replaced with flipped voltage follower to improve the efficiency of the tail current source, which is connected to a conventional differential pair. The simulation results show the performance of the modified circuit also has better speed, noise performance and common mode rejection ratio compared to the ABDP circuit.

Family mediation and women’s services: Towards effective referral

Central to Government’s strategy for separating families is the management and resolution of disputes away from courts and litigation processes wherever this is achievable. A key group of players in facilitating this vision are workers within the wide range of women’s services. This study surveyed workers at a number of Victorian women’s services that provide advice, support, and referral for women and explored their understanding of mediation processes and outcomes. The results indicate that, while generally supportive of mediation as a process that could assist their clients, workers were concerned about its appropriateness when family violence was an issue. Some of these concerns appeared to be based upon a good understanding of the limitations of mediation practices, but it is also apparent that some concerns were influenced by a misunderstanding and limited knowledge of contemporary mediation practice. It is recommended that family mediation services work proactively with women’s services in order to better inform each other of the possibilities and constraints in working with postseparation disputes.

Nanostructured Copper(II) oxide thin film for alcohol sensing

Nanostructured copper(II) oxide film was deposited using reactive DC magnetron sputtering. It has been characterized using XRD, EDAX, XPS, and FESEM. The grain size of copper oxide film was found to be 40-65 nm with size distribution. The entire study was divided into two parts. In the first part, the film has been studied for its response to alcohol at different temperatures to find the optimum sensing temperature, whereas in the second part, the film sensitivity to different alcohol concentrations were studied at fixed optimum operating temperature. The optimum temperature for the response of ethanol was observed to be 400 C,and the response for different concentrations was found to be almost linear.

Mechanism of low-temperature deformation in quenched aluminium-magnesium alloys

The dislocation mechanisms for plastic flow in quenched AlMg alloys with 0.45, 0.9, 2.7 and 6.4 at. % Mg were investigated using tensile tests and change-in-stress creep experiments in the temperaturhttp://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::Edit&eprintid=28109&stage=core#te range 87° -473° K. The higher the magnesium content in the alloy, the higher was the temperature dependence of flow stress. The alloys showed no perceptible creep in the vicinity of room temperature, while they crept at lower as well as higher temperatures. The most probable cause of hardening at temperatures below ∼ 200° K was found to be the pinning of dislocations by randomly distributed solute atoms, while athermal locking of dislocations by dynamic strain ageing during creep was responsible for the negligibly small creep rate in the room temperature range.

Raman spectra of crystalline double sulphates Part II. Ammonium double sulphates

Raman spectra of single crystals of (NH4)2M(SO4)2·6 H2O where M=Mg, Zn Ni or Co have been recorded using λ 2537 excitation. Interesting results concerning the substitution of the divalent atoms in the double sulphate lattice on the sulphate and ammonium frequencies are observed. The spectra of these double sulphates are discussed in the light of the known crystal structure details and in relation, to the spectra of the corresponding potassium double sulphates, reported recently by the author. The Raman spectrum of NaNH4SO4·2 H2O has also been recorded for the first time and the results obtained are also included.

SPSA algorithms with measurement reuse

Four algorithms, all variants of Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA), are proposed. The original one-measurement SPSA uses an estimate of the gradient of objective function L containing an additional bias term not seen in two-measurement SPSA. As a result, the asymptotic covariance matrix of the iterate convergence process has a bias term. We propose a one-measurement algorithm that eliminates this bias, and has asymptotic convergence properties making for easier comparison with the two-measurement SPSA. The algorithm, under certain conditions, outperforms both forms of SPSA with the only overhead being the storage of a single measurement. We also propose a similar algorithm that uses perturbations obtained from normalized Hadamard matrices. The convergence w.p. 1 of both algorithms is established. We extend measurement reuse to design two second-order SPSA algorithms and sketch the convergence analysis. Finally, we present simulation results on an illustrative minimization problem.

Starburst in the ultraluminous galaxy Arp 220: Constraints from observations of radio recombination lines and continuum

We present observations of radio recombination lines (RRL) from the starburst galaxy Arp 220 at 8.1 GHz (H92 alpha) and 1.4 GHz (H167 alpha and H165 alpha) and at 84 GHz (H42 alpha), 96 GHz (H40 alpha) and 207 GHz (H31 alpha) using the Very Large Array and the IRAM 30 m telescope, respectively. RRLs were detected at all the frequencies except 1.4 GHz, where a sensitive upper limit was obtained. We also present continuum flux measurements at these frequencies as well as at 327 MHz made with the VLA. The continuum spectrum, which has a spectral index alpha similar to -0.6 (S-nu proportional to nu(alpha)) between 5 and 10 GHz, shows a break near 1.5 GHz, a prominent turnover below 500 MHz, and a flatter spectral index above 50 GHz. We show that a model with three components of ionized gas with different densities and area covering factors can consistently explain both RRL and continuum data. The total mass of ionized gas in the three components is 3.2 x 10(7) M., requiring 3 x 10(5) O5 stars with a total Lyman continuum production rate N-Lyc similar to 1.3 x 10(55) photons s(-1). The ratio of the expected to observed Br alpha and Br gamma fluxes implies a dust extinction A(V) similar to 45 mag. The derived Lyman continuum photon production rate implies a continuous star formation rate (SFR) averaged over the lifetime of OB stars of similar to 240 M yr(-1). The Lyman continuum photon Production rate of similar to 3% associated with the high-density H II regions implies a similar SFR at recent epochs (t < 10(5) yr). An alternative model of high-density gas, which cannot be excluded on the basis of the available data, predicts 10 times higher SFR at recent epochs. If confirmed, this model implies that star formation in Arp 220 consists of multiple starbursts of very high SFR (few times 10(3) M. yr(-1)) and short duration (similar to 10(5) yr). The similarity of IR excess, L-IR/L-Ly alpha similar to 24, in Arp 220 to values observed in starburst galaxies shows that most of the high luminosity of Arp 220 is due to the ongoing starburst rather than to a hidden active galactic nucleus (AGN). A comparison of the IR excesses in Arp 220, the Galaxy, and M33 indicates that the starburst in Arp 220 has an initial mass function that is similar to that in normal galaxies and has a duration longer than 107 yr. If there was no infall of gas during this period, then the star formation efficiency (SFE) in Arp 220 is similar to 50%. The high SFR and SFE in Arp 220 is consistent with their known dependences on mass and density of gas in star-forming regions of normal galaxies.

Prediction of breakout noise from an elliptical duct of finite length

This paper describes a predictive model for breakout noise from an elliptical duct or shell of finite length. The transmission mechanism is essentially that of ``mode coupling'', whereby higher structural modes in the duct walls get excited because of non-circularity of the wall. Effect of geometry has been taken care of by evaluating Fourier coefficients of the radius of curvature. The noise radiated from the duct walls is represented by that from a finite vibrating length of a semi infinite cylinder in a free field. Emphasis is on understanding the physics of the problem as well as analytical modeling. The analytical model is validated with 3-D FEM. Effects of the ovality, curvature, and axial terminations of the duct have been demonstrated. (C) 2010 Institute of Noise Control Engineering.

Hepatotoxicity of pulegone in rats: Its effects on microsomal enzymes, in vivo

Oral administration of pulegone (400 mg/kg) to rats once daily for five days caused significant decreases in the levels of liver microsomal cytochrome P-450 and heme. Cytochrome b5 and NAD(P)H-cytochrome c-reductase activities were not affected. Massive hepatotoxicy accompanied by an increase in serum glutamate pyruvate transaminase (SGPT) and a decrease in glucose-6-phosphatase were observed upon treatment with pulegone. A significant decrease in aminopyrine N-demethylase was also noticed after pulegone administration. Menthone or carvone (600 mg/kg), compounds related to pulegone, when administered orally did not cause any decrease in cytochrome P-450 levels. The hepatotoxic effects of pulegone were both dose and time dependent. Pretreatment of rats with phenobarbital (PB) or diethylmaleate (DEM) potentiated the hepatotoxicity caused by pulegone, whereas, pretreatment with 3-methylcholanthrene (3-MC) or piperonyl butoxide protected from it. It appears that a PB induced cytochrome P-450 catalysed reactive metabolite(s) may be responsible for the hepatotoxicity caused by pulegone.