What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

1. Expert knowledge continues to gain recognition as a valuable source of information in a wide range of research applications. Despite recent advances in defining expert knowledge, comparatively little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors, and thereby, to quantify an individual’s expertise. 2. We present a systems approach to describing expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their interrelationships, and allows quantification of an individual’s expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For the purpose of illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with professional taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network were determined by a second set of senior taxonomists. This second set of experts (i.e. supra-experts) also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was then assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states in the discipline of taxonomy. Hypothetical career states were used to incorporate the greatest possible differences in career states and provide an opportunity to test the model against known inputs. 3. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was remarkably good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had built into them. 4. This systems approach provides a novel way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it is desirable to understand components of expertise.

Continuous remote emissions monitoring – the lynchpin for air quality management

Diesel particulate matter (DPM), in particular, has been likened in a somewhat inflammatory manner to be the ‘next asbestos’. From the business change perspective, there are three areas holding the industry back from fully engaging with the issue: 1. There is no real feedback loop in any operational sense to assess the impact of investment or application of controls to manage diesel emissions. 2. DPM are getting ever smaller and more numerous, but there is no practical way of measuring them to regulate them in the field. Mass, the current basis of regulation, is becoming less and less relevant. 3. Diesel emissions management is generally wholly viewed as a cost, yet there are significant areas of benefit available from good management. This paper discusses a feedback approach to address these three areas to move the industry forward. The six main areas of benefit from providing a feedback loop by continuously monitoring diesel emissions have been identified: 1. Condition-based maintenance. Emissions change instantaneously if engine condition changes. 2. Operator performance. An operator can use a lot more fuel for little incremental work output through poor technique or discipline. 3. Vehicle utilisation. Operating hours achieved and ratios of idling to under power affect the proportion of emissions produced with no economic value. 4. Fuel efficiency. This allows visibility into other contributing configuration and environmental factors for the vehicle. 5. Emission rates. This allows scope to directly address the required ratio of ventilation to diesel emissions. 6. Total carbon emissions - for NGER-type reporting requirements, calculating the emissions individually from each vehicle rather than just reporting on fuel delivered to a site.

Degradation of simazine from aqueous solutions by diatomite-supported nanosized zero-valent iron composite materials

A novel composite material based on deposition of nanosized zero-valent iron (nZVI) particles on acid-leached diatomite was synthesised for the removal of a chlorinated contaminant in water. The nZVI /diatomite composites were characterized by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, elemental analysis, transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Compared with the pure nZVI particles, better dispersion of nZVI particles on the surface or inside the pores of diatom shells was observed. The herbicide simazine was selected as the model chlorinated contaminant and the removal efficiency by nZVI /diatomite composite was compared with that of the pristine nZVI and commercial iron powder. It was found that the diatomite supported nZVI composite material prepared by centrifugation exhibits relatively better efficient activity in decomposition of simazine than commercial Fe, lab synthesized nZVI and composite material prepared via rotary evaporation, and the optimum experimental conditions were obtained based on a series of batch experiments. This study on immobilizing nZVI particles onto diatomite opens a new avenue for the practical application of nZVI and the diatomite-supported nanosized zero-valent iron composite materials have potential applications in environmental remediation.

Age-related trends in urinary excretion of bisphenol A in Australian children and adults : evidence from a pooled sample study using samples of convenience

Bisphenol A (BPA or 4,4’-(propane-2,2-diyl)diphenol) is a chemical intermediate in the production of polycarbonate and epoxy resins, and used in a wide range of applications. BPA has attracted significant attention in the past decade due to its frequency of detection in human populations worldwide, demonstrated animal toxicity and potential impact on human health, particularly during critical periods of development. The aim of this study was to perform a preliminary assessment of age-related trends in urinary concentration and to estimate daily excretion of BPA in Australian children (aged (>0 – <5 years) and adults (≥15 – <75 years). This was achieved using 79 samples pooled by age and gender, created from 868 individual samples of convenience collected as part of routine, community-based pathology testing. Total BPA was analyzed using online-SPE-LC-MS/MS and detected in all samples with a range of 0.65 – 265 ng/ml. No significant differences were observed between males and females. A urine flow model was constructed from published values and used to provide an estimate of daily excretion per unit bodyweight for each pooled sample. The daily excretion estimates ranged from 26.2 – 18200 ng/kg-d for children; and 20.1 – 165 ng/kg-d for adults. Urinary concentrations and estimated excretion rates were inversely associated with age, and estimated daily excretion rates in infants and young children were significantly higher than in adults (geometric mean: 107 and 47.0 ng/kg-d, respectively). Higher excretion of BPA in children may be explained by their higher food consumption relative to body weight compared to adults and adolescents, and may also reflect alternative exposure pathways and sources. Keywords: bisphenol A, biomonitoring, children, urine flow, Australia

Evaluation framework for green procurement in road construction

Purpose Most barriers and enablers of sustainable projects are related to procurement. This study proposes a framework for evaluating green procurement practices throughout the lifecycle of road construction projects and demonstrates its application through an Australian case study. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on linking the phases of road construction with incentive mechanisms for proactively motivating behavioural change. A holistic view on utilised and potential incentives is attempted with a literature review and a state-of-practice review. The latter is based on interviews and 90 policy and procurement documents across five Australian states. Findings An evaluation framework with seven procurement stages is suggested to describe current state green procurement incentives throughout the delivery lifecycle of road construction projects. The Australian case study was found to provide useful data to identify gaps and strong points of the different states regarding their level of integration of sustainability and greenhouse gas emissions GHG) reduction elements in their procurement practices. This understanding was used to draw recommendations on future advancement of green procurement. Originality/value: Government entities across the globe can impact considerably the achievement of sustainability and GHG targets, by using their procurement practices and requirements to create incentives for contractors and suppliers to engage in more GHG conscious practices. The present study provides a systematic account of how green procurement practices can be underpinned using the Australian road construction industry as a case study, and distinguish between strong and weak links in the green procurement chain to draw recommendations for future initiatives.

Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Talking Fish : Making Connections with the Rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

"The ongoing review of the NFS highlighted that engagement with recreational fishers and the Indigenous community, in particular, could be enhanced. This was the impetus for the Talking Fish project which acknowledged the important relationship people have with their local rivers and fish within the Murray-Darling Basin. Within these relationships a wealth of historical information about rivers and fish was held and it was recognised that this needed to be captured..."--publisher website.

Turbulence in an inundated urban environment during a major flood : implications in terms of people evacuation and sediment deposition

Floods through inundated urban environments constitute a hazard to the population and infrastructure. A series of field measurements were performed in an inundated section of the City of Brisbane (Australia) during a major flood in January 2011. Using an acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV), detailed velocity and suspended sediment concentration measurements were conducted about the peak of the flood. The results are discussed with a focus on the safety of individuals in floodwaters and the sediment deposition during the flood recession. The force of the floodwaters in Gardens Point Road was deemed unsafe for individual evacuation. A comparison with past laboratory results suggested that previous recommendations could be inappropriate and unsafe in real flood flows.

Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.

Why are there Different Age Related Trends for Different Chemicals?

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as dioxins, PCBs, persistent organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) as well as perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) and triclosan are ubiquitous in the human population. In Australia, we have pooled and subsequently analysed over 10 000 human serum samples for the determination of these chemicals by age group (0–0.5; 0.6–1; 1.1–1.5; 1.6–2; 2.1–2.5; 2.6–3; 3.1–3.5; 3.6–4; 4.1–6; 6.1–9; 9.1–12; 12.1–15; 16–30; 31–45; 46–60 and >60 years) and gender. The results of this analysis were then used to assess the trends of these different chemicals as a function of age, gender and to a lesser extent region. Our data demonstrate clear chemical specific age trends. In particular we demonstrate that for the traditional POPs there is an increase in body burden with age whereas the opposite is true for chemicals such as PBDEs. For PFCs we find chemical specific age trends that vary from compound to compound. For triclosan we show that no apparent age trend is observable. The results of the study and its implications to the collection and archiving of samples for retrospective analysis are discussed.

Use of simple pharmacokinetic modeling to characterize exposure of Australians to perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid

Perflurooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) have been used for a variety of applications including fluoropolymer processing, fire-fighting foams and surface treatments since the 1950s. Both PFOS and PFOA are polyfluoroalkyl chemicals (PFCs), man-made compounds that are persistent in the environment and humans; some PFCs have shown adverse effects in laboratory animals. Here we describe the application of a simple one compartment pharmacokinetic model to estimate total intakes of PFOA and PFOS for the general population of urban areas on the east coast of Australia. Key parameters for this model include the elimination rate constants and the volume of distribution within the body. A volume of distribution was calibrated for PFOA to a value of 170ml/kgbw using data from two communities in the United States where the residents' serum concentrations could be assumed to result primarily from a known and characterized source, drinking water contaminated with PFOA by a single fluoropolymer manufacturing facility. For PFOS, a value of 230ml/kgbw was used, based on adjustment of the PFOA value. Applying measured Australian serum data to the model gave mean+/-standard deviation intake estimates of PFOA of 1.6+/-0.3ng/kgbw/day for males and females >12years of age combined based on samples collected in 2002-2003 and 1.3+/-0.2ng/kg bw/day based on samples collected in 2006-2007. Mean intakes of PFOS were 2.7+/-0.5ng/kgbw/day for males and females >12years of age combined based on samples collected in 2002-2003, and 2.4+/-0.5ng/kgbw/day for the 2006-2007 samples. ANOVA analysis was run for PFOA intake and demonstrated significant differences by age group (p=0.03), sex (p=0.001) and date of collection (p<0.001). Estimated intake rates were highest in those aged >60years, higher in males compared to females, and higher in 2002-2003 compared to 2006-2007. The same results were seen for PFOS intake with significant differences by age group (p<0.001), sex (p=0.001) and date of collection (p=0.016).

Leptospirosis and Leptospires - The silent assassins

Leptospirosis is one of the most common yet under reported zoonoses. Leptospires, the etiological agents of leptospirosis are ubiquitous pathogens, with a world-wide distribution, causing a spectrum of disease ranging from a mild influenza-like illness to Weil’s disease, which manifests itself in multi-organ failure. The following chapter reports on the epidemiology and transmission of the disease in humans and animals. The chapter will also delineate the symptoms observed in humans and animals and in concluding outline unresolved and evolving issues for microbiologists, epidemiologists and public health officials.

Bisphenol A degradation enhanced by air bubbles via advanced oxidation using in situ generated ferrous ions from nano zero-valent iron/palygorskite composite materials

Novel nano zero-valent iron/palygorskite composite materials prepared by evaporative and centrifuge methods are tested for the degradation of bisphenol A in an aqueous medium. A systematic study is presented which showed that nano zero-valent iron material has little effect on bisphenol A degradation. When hydrogen peroxide was added to initiate the reaction, some percentage of bisphenol A removal (∼20%) was achieved; however, with the aid of air bubbles, the percentage removal can be significantly increased to ∼99%. Compared with pristine nano zero-valent iron and commercial iron powder, nano zero-valent iron/palygorskite composite materials have much higher reactivity towards bisphenol A and these materials are superior as they have little impact on the solution pH. However, for pristine nano zero-valent iron, it is difficult to maintain the reaction system at a favourable low pH which is a key factor in maintaining high bisphenol A removal. All materials were characterized by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, elemental analysis, transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The optimum conditions were obtained based on a series of batch experiments. This study has extended the application of nano zero-valent iron/palygorskite composites as effective materials for the removal of phenolic compounds from the environment.

Modeling nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated agriculture : testing DayCent with high-frequency measurements

A unique high temporal frequency dataset from an irrigated cotton-wheat rotation was used to test the agroecosystem model DayCent to simulate daily N2O emissions from sub-tropical vertisols under different irrigation intensities. DayCent was able to simulate the effect of different irrigation intensities on N2O fluxes and yield, although it tended to overestimate seasonal fluxes during the cotton season. DayCent accurately predicted soil moisture dynamics and the timing and magnitude of high fluxes associated with fertilizer additions and irrigation events. At the daily scale we found a good correlation of predicted vs. measured N2O fluxes (r2 = 0.52), confirming that DayCent can be used to test agricultural practices for mitigating N2O emission from irrigated cropping systems. A 25 year scenario analysis indicated that N2O losses from irrigated cotton-wheat rotations on black vertisols in Australia can be substantially reduced by an optimized fertilizer and irrigation management system (i.e. frequent irrigation, avoidance of excessive fertiliser application), while sustaining maximum yield potentials.