908 resultados para 100 years
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Shallow ice cores were obtained from widely distributed sites across the West Antarctic ice sheet, as part of the United States portion of the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (US ITASE) program. The US ITASE cores have been dated by annual-layer counting, primarily through the identification of summer peaks in non-sea-salt sulfate (nssSO(4)(2-)) concentration. Absolute dating accuracy of better than 2 years and relative dating accuracy better than 1 year is demonstrated by the identification of multiple volcanic marker horizons in each of the cores, Tambora, Indonesia (1815), being the most prominent. Independent validation is provided by the tracing of isochronal layers from site to site using high-frequency ice-penetrating radar observations, and by the timing of mid-winter warming events in stable-isotope ratios, which demonstrate significantly better than 1 year accuracy in the last 20 years. Dating precision to 1 month is demonstrated by the occurrence of summer nitrate peaks and stable-isotope ratios in phase with nssSO(4)(2-), and winter-time sea-salt peaks out of phase, with phase variation of < 1 month. Dating precision and accuracy are uniform with depth, for at least the last 100 years.
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A reconstruction methodology utilizing such varied documents as diaries, agricultural journals, U.S. Weather Bureau killing frost records and instrumental records is discussed. A resultant 248-year frost record for eastern Massachusetts exhibits marked variations in the length of the growing season, that occur on a time scale of approximately 70 years. There is an apparent systematic long-term relationship between the timing of spring and fall killing frosts and the last 100 years of record reveals a decline in year-to-year variability.
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Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.
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To assess if tree age may modulate the main climatic drivers of radial growth, two relict Pinus nigra subsp. salzmannii populations (Maria, most xeric site; Magina, least xeric site) were sampled in southern Spain near the limits of the species range. Tree-ring width residual chronologies for two age groups (mature trees, age <= 100 years (minimum 40 years); old trees, age > 100 years) were built to evaluate their responses to climate by relating them to monthly precipitation and temperature and a drought index (DRI) using correlation and response functions. We found that drought is the main driver of growth of relict P. nigra populations, but differences between sites and age classes were also observed. First, growth in the most xeric site depends on the drought severity during the previous autumn and the spring of the year of tree-ring formation, whereas in the relatively more mesic site growth is mainly enhanced by warm and wet conditions in spring. Second, growth of mature trees responded more to drought severity than that of old trees. Our findings indicate that drought severity will mainly affect growth of relict P. nigra populations dominated by mature trees in xeric sites. This conclusion may also apply to similar mountain Mediterranean conifer relicts.
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Varved lake sediments are excellent natural archives providing quantitative insights into climatic and environmental changes at very high resolution and chronological accuracy. However, due to the multitude of responses within lake ecosystems it is often difficult to understand how climate variability interacts with other environmental pressures such as eutrophication, and to attribute observed changes to specific causes. This is particularly challenging during the past 100 years when multiple strong trends are superposed. Here we present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of sedimentary pigments and other biogeochemical data from the varved sediments of Lake Żabińskie (Masurian Lake District, north-eastern Poland, 54°N–22°E, 120 m a.s.l.) spanning AD 1907 to 2008. Lake Żabińskie exhibits biogeochemical varves with highly organic late summer and winter layers separated by white layers of endogenous calcite precipitated in early summer. The aim of our study is to investigate whether climate-driven changes and anthropogenic changes can be separated in a multi-proxy sediment data set, and to explore which sediment proxies are potentially suitable for long quantitative climate reconstructions. We also test if convoluted analytical techniques (e.g. HPLC) can be substituted by rapid scanning techniques (visible reflectance spectroscopy VIS-RS; 380–730 nm). We used principal component analysis and cluster analysis to show that the recent eutrophication of Lake Żabińskie can be discriminated from climate-driven changes for the period AD 1907–2008. The eutrophication signal (PC1 = 46.4%; TOC, TN, TS, Phe-b, high TC/CD ratios total carotenoids/chlorophyll-a derivatives) is mainly expressed as increasing aquatic primary production, increasing hypolimnetic anoxia and a change in the algal community from green algae to blue-green algae. The proxies diagnostic for eutrophication show a smooth positive trend between 1907 and ca 1980 followed by a very rapid increase from ca. 1980 ± 2 onwards. We demonstrate that PC2 (24.4%, Chl-a-related pigments) is not affected by the eutrophication signal, but instead is sensitive to spring (MAM) temperature (r = 0.63, pcorr < 0.05, RMSEP = 0.56 °C; 5-yr filtered). Limnological monitoring data (2011–2013) support this finding. We also demonstrate that scanning visible reflectance spectroscopy (VIS-RS) data can be calibrated to HPLC-measured chloropigment data and be used to infer concentrations of sedimentary Chl-a derivatives {pheophytin a + pyropheophytin a}. This offers the possibility for very high-resolution (multi)millennial-long paleoenvironmental reconstructions.
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When genetic constraints restrict phenotypic evolution, diversification can be predicted to evolve along so-called lines of least resistance. To address the importance of such constraints and their resolution, studies of parallel phenotypic divergence that differ in their age are valuable. Here, we investigate the parapatric evolution of six lake and stream threespine stickleback systems from Iceland and Switzerland, ranging in age from a few decades to several millennia. Using phenotypic data, we test for parallelism in ecotypic divergence between parapatric lake and stream populations and compare the observed patterns to an ancestral-like marine population. We find strong and consistent phenotypic divergence, both among lake and stream populations and between our freshwater populations and the marine population. Interestingly, ecotypic divergence in low-dimensional phenotype space (i.e. single traits) is rapid and seems to be often completed within 100 years. Yet, the dimensionality of ecotypic divergence was highest in our oldest systems and only there parallel evolution of unrelated ecotypes was strong enough to overwrite phylogenetic contingency. Moreover, the dimensionality of divergence in different systems varies between trait complexes, suggesting different constraints and evolutionary pathways to their resolution among freshwater systems.
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A total of 23 pollen diagrams [stored in the Alpine Palynological Data-Base (ALPADABA), Geobotanical Institute, Bern] cover the last 100 to over 1000 years. The sites include 15 lakes, seven mires, and one soil profile distributed in the Jura Mts (three sites), Swiss Plateau (two sites), northern Pre-Alps and Alps (six sites), central Alps (five sites), southern Alps (three sites), and southern Pre-Alps (four sites) in the western and southern part of Switzerland or just outside the national borders. The pollen diagrams have both a high taxonomic resolution and a high temporal resolution, with sampling distances of 0.5–3 cm, equivalent to 1 to 11 years for the last 100 years and 8 to 130 years for earlier periods. The chronology is based on absolute dating (14 sites: 210Pb 11 sites; 14C six sites; varve counting two sites) or on biostratigraphic correlation among pollen diagrams. The latter relies mainly on trends in Cannabis sativa, Ambrosia, Mercurialis annua, and Ostrya-type pollen. Individual pollen stratigraphies are discussed and sites are compared within each region. The principle of designating local, extra-local, and regional pollen signals and vegetation is exemplified by two pairs of sites lying close together. Trends in biostratigraphies shared by a major part of the pollen diagrams allow the following generalisations. Forest declined in phases since medieval times up to the late 19th century. Abies and Fagus declined consistently, whereas the behaviour of short-lived trees and trees of moist habitats differed among sites (Alnus glutinosa-type, Alnus viridis, Betula, Corylus avellana). In the present century, however, Picea and Pinus increased, followed by Fraxinus excelsior in the second half of this century. Grassland (traced by Gramineae and Plantago lanceolata-type pollen) increased, replacing much of the forest, and declined again in the second half of this century. Nitrate enrichment of the vegetation (traced by Urtica) took place in the first half of this century. These trends reflect the intensification of forest use and the expansion of grassland from medieval times up to the end of the last century, whereas subsequently parts of the grassland became used more intensively and the marginal parts were abandoned for forest regrowth. In most pollen diagrams human impact is the dominant factor in explaining inferred changes in vegetation, but climatic change plays a role at three sites.
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PURPOSE To identify the influence of fixed prosthesis type on biologic and technical complication rates in the context of screw versus cement retention. Furthermore, a multivariate analysis was conducted to determine which factors, when considered together, influence the complication and failure rates of fixed implant-supported prostheses. MATERIALS AND METHODS Electronic searches of MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were conducted. Selected inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to limit the search. Data were analyzed statistically with simple and multivariate random-effects Poisson regressions. RESULTS Seventy-three articles qualified for inclusion in the study. Screw-retained prostheses showed a tendency toward and significantly more technical complications than cemented prostheses with single crowns and fixed partial prostheses, respectively. Resin chipping and ceramic veneer chipping had high mean event rates, at 10.04 and 8.95 per 100 years, respectively, for full-arch screwed prostheses. For "all fixed prostheses" (prosthesis type not reported or not known), significantly fewer biologic and technical complications were seen with screw retention. Multivariate analysis revealed a significantly greater incidence of technical complications with cemented prostheses. Full-arch prostheses, cantilevered prostheses, and "all fixed prostheses" had significantly higher complication rates than single crowns. A significantly greater incidence of technical and biologic complications was seen with cemented prostheses. CONCLUSION Screw-retained fixed partial prostheses demonstrated a significantly higher rate of technical complications and screw-retained full-arch prostheses demonstrated a notably high rate of veneer chipping. When "all fixed prostheses" were considered, significantly higher rates of technical and biologic complications were seen for cement-retained prostheses. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis failed to show a significant difference between screw- and cement-retained prostheses with respect to the incidence of failure but demonstrated a higher rate of technical and biologic complications for cement-retained prostheses. The incidence of technical complications was more dependent upon prosthesis and retention type than prosthesis or abutment material.
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PURPOSE OF REVIEW Hypertension in pregnancy contributes substantially to perinatal mortality and morbidity of both the mother and her child. High blood pressure is mainly responsible for this adverse outcome, in particular when associated with preeclampsia. Although preeclampsia is nowadays a well-known clinical-obstetrical entity, and screening for this complication has been part of routine care during pregnancy for nearly 100 years, its cause is still enigmatic. RECENT FINDINGS Profound changes of the demographic development of our society, the worldwide rising prevalence of obesity and metabolic disorders, and progress in reproductive medicine will inevitably modify the prevalence of many medical problems in pregnancy. Complications such as gestational diabetes mellitus, chronic hypertension, and preeclampsia will rise and an interdisciplinary approach is necessary to handle these women during pregnancy and also after delivery. Indeed, it is now well established that these women and their offspring born large or small-for-gestational age are at increased risk for severe cardiovascular and metabolic complications later in life. SUMMARY Knowledge of the pregnancy course is not only important for an obstetrician but also increasingly inevitable for the general practitioner. Recognition, classification, and adequate management of hypertensive pregnancy disorders and associated complications may considerably reduce perinatal death and morbidity.
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The ratio of oxygen isotopes is a temperature proxy both in precipitation and in the calcite of lacustrine sediments. The very similar oxygen-isotope records from Greenland ice cores and European lake sediments during the Last Glacial Termination suggest that the drastic climatic changes occurred quasi-simultaneously on an extra-regional, probably hemispheric scale. In order to study temporal relations of the different parameters recorded in lake sediments, for example biotic response times to rapid climatic changes, a precise chronology is required. In unlaminated lake sediments there is not yet available a method to provide a high-resolution chronology, especially for periods with radiocarbon plateaux. Alternatively, an indirect time scale can be constructed by linking the lake stratigraphy with other well-dated climate records. New oxygen-isotope records from Gerzensee and Leysin, with an estimated sampling resolution of between 15 and 40 years, match the Greenlandic isotope record in many details. Under the assumption that the main variations in temperature and thus in oxygen isotopes occurred about simultaneously in Greenland and Switzerland, we have assigned a time scale to the lake sediments of Gerzensee and Leysin by wiggle-matching their stable-isotope records with those of Greenland ice cores, which are among the best dated climatic archives. We estimate a precision of 20 to 100 years during the Last Glacial Termination.
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A 181 m deep ice core drilled in 1994/95 on the south dome of Berkner Island, Antarctica, was analyzed for stable isotopes, major ions and microparticle concentrations. Samples for ion chromatography were prepared by using a novel technique of filling decontaminated sample from a device for continuous ice-core melting directly into the sample vials. The core was dated through identification of volcanic horizons and interpolative layer counting. The core, together with a similar core from the north dome, reveals a 1000 year history of relatively stable climate. Temporal variations in the two cores deviate from each other owing to changing patterns of regional-scale circulation; the best correspondence between them is found for MSA-. delta18O, accumulation rate and a sea-salt proxy show only negligible correlation, which suggests a complex meteorological setting. Increasing annual accumulation is observed for the last 100 years. A period of increased sea-salt concentrations started around AD 1405, as has also been observed in other cores. Microparticle concentrations are on average 1220 particles (>=1.0 ?m diameter)/mL; they are enhanced from AD 1200 to 1350, possibly because of a higher atmospheric mineral dust load or because local volcanic activity was stronger than previously thought. Microparticles and NH4+show marked but multiple and very irregular sub-annual peaks; long-term stacking of 1 year data intervals yields seasonal maxima in austral spring or mid-summer, respectively. Post-depositional redistribution was observed for MSA, NO3- and F- at volcanic horizons.
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A novel laser microparticle detector used in conjunction with continuous sample melting has provided a more than 1500 m long record of particle concentration and size distribution of the NGRIP ice core, covering continuously the period approximately from 9.5-100 kyr before present; measurements were at 1.65 m depth resolution, corresponding to approximately 35-200 yr. Particle concentration increased by a factor of 100 in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the Preboreal, and sharp variations of concentration occurred synchronously with rapid changes in the delta18O temperature proxy. The lognormal mode µ of the volume distribution shows clear systematic variations with smaller modes during warmer climates and coarser modes during colder periods. We find µ ~ 1.7 µm diameter during LGM and µ ~ 1.3 µm during the Preboreal. On timescales below several 100 years µ and the particle concentration exhibit a certain degree of independence present especially during warm periods, when µ generally is more variable. Using highly simplifying considerations for atmospheric transport and deposition of particles we infer that (1) the observed changes of µ in the ice largely reflect changes in the size of airborne particles above the ice sheet and (2) changes of µ are indicative of changes in long range atmospheric transport time. From the observed size changes we estimate shorter transit times by roughly 25% during LGM compared to the Preboreal. The associated particle concentration increase from more efficient long range transport is estimated to less than one order of magnitude.
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Foraminifera were examined in recent (<100 years) fine-grained glaciomarine muds from surface sediments and cores from Nordensheld Bay, Novaja Zemlja, and Hornsund and Bellsund, Spitsbergen. This study presents the first data on modern foraminifera distribution for fjord environments in Novaja Zemlja, Russia. The data are interpreted with reference to the distribution of foraminiferal near Svalbard and the Barents Sea. In Nordensheld Bay, live and dead Nonionellina labradorica and Islandiella norcrossi are most abundant in the outer fjord. Cassidulina reniforme and Allogromiina spp. dominate in the middle and inner fjord. The dominant species are dissimilar to species occurring in other areas of the Barents Sea region, with the exception of Svalbard fjords. The number of live foraminifera (24 to 122 tests/10 cm1) in outer and middle Nordensheld Bay corresponds with values known from the open Barents Sea. However, the biomass (0.03 mg/10 cm**3) is two orders of magnitude less due to smaller foraminiferal test size, which in glaciomarine sediments reflects the absence of larger species, paucity of large specimens, and high occurrence of juvenile foraminifera. The smaller size indicates an opportunistic response to environmental stress due to glacier proximity. The presence of Quinqueloculina stalkeri is diagnostic of glaciomarine environments in fjords of Novaja Zemlja and Svalbard.
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The paper focuses on studies of snow-pit samples and shallow firn cores taken during the 1995-96 and 1996-97 field seasons at Amundsenisen, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The dating of the firn is based on the artificial tritium distribution in the snow cover and on several reference horizons identified by electrical measurements. The early 1964 through 1965 horizon is marked by the deposition of sulfate released to the atmosphere during the eruption of the Agung volcano in March 1963; this horizon was detected by dielectric profiling and electrical conductivity measurements; the proof by chemical analysis has still to be seen. At the ten investigated sites on Amundsenisen the 1964-65 horizon was identified 4.1-5.7 m below the surface. The accumulation rates on Amundsenisen are 41-91 kg/m**2/a. The cores are up to 100 years old. A relationship between isotope content and the mean air temperature on a regional scale can be based on measurements of firn temperature at 10 m depth at the drilling sites. Between Neumayer station at the coast and Heimefrontfjella, the temperature gradient of the deuterium content is 9.6 per mil/K. South of Heimefrontfjella, on the Amundsenisen plateau, it is only 5.5 per mil/K. Time series of yearly accumulation rates show no significant trend. For the isotope records a significant trend to higher values with gradients of 0.1-0.2 d2H per mil/a can be seen in five of the ten time series.
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We quantified postdepositional losses of methane sulfonate (MSA-), nitrate, and chloride at the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) drilling site in Dronning Maud Land (DML) (75°S, 0°E). Analyses of four intermediate deep firn cores and 13 snow pits were considered. We found that about 26 ± 13% of the once deposited nitrate and typically 51 ± 20% of MSA- were lost, while for chloride, no significant depletion could be observed in firn older than one year. Assuming a first order exponential decay rate, the characteristic e-folding time for MSA- is 6.4 ± 3 years and 19 ± 6 years for nitrate. It turns out that for nitrate and MSA- the typical mean concentrations representative for the last 100 years were reached after 5.4 and 6.5 years, respectively, indicating that beneath a depth of around 1.2-1.4 m postdepositional losses can be neglected. In the area of investigation, only MSA- concentrations and postdepositional losses showed a distinct dependence on snow accumulation rate. Consequently, MSA- concentrations archived at this site should be significantly dependent on the variability of annual snow accumulation, and we recommend a corresponding correction. With a simple approach, we estimated the partial pressure of the free acids MSA, HNO3, and HCl on the basis of Henry's law assuming that ionic impurities of the bulk ice matrix are localized in a quasi-brine layer (QBL). In contrast to measurements, this approach predicts a nearly complete loss of MSA-, NO3 - , and Cl-.