What is the value of forensic science? : an overview of the effectiveness of forensic science in the Australian criminal justice system project

Forensic science is increasingly relied upon by law enforcement to assist in solvingcrime and gaining convictions, and by the judicial system in the adjudication ofspecific criminal cases. However, the value of forensic science relative to the workinvolved and the outcome of cases has yet to be established in the Australiancontext. Previous research in this area has mainly focused on the science andtechnology, rather than examining how people can use forensic services/science tothe best possible advantage to produce appropriate justice outcomes. This fiveyearproject entails an investigation into the effectiveness of forensic science inpolice investigations and court trials. It aims to identify when, where and howforensic science can add value to criminal investigations, court trials and justiceoutcomes while ensuring the efficient use of available resources initially in theVictorian and the ACT criminal justice systems and ultimately across Australiaand New Zealand. This paper provides an overview of the rationale and aims ofthe research project and discusses current work-in-progress.

Letter to the Editor : on the value of probability for evaluating results of comparative pattern analyses

This letter to the Editor comments on the article Practical relevance of pattern uniqueness in forensic science by P.T. Jayaprakash (Forensic Science International, in press).

Apport du CT-3D dans le diagnostic et le traitement des fractures des plateaux tibiaux [Value of 3D CT in diagnosis and treatment of fractures of the tibial plateau]

A precise classification and an optimal understanding of tibial plateau fractures are the basis of a conservative treatment or adequate surgery. The aim of this prospective study is to determine the contribution of 3D CT to the classification of fractures (comparison with standard X-rays) and as an aid to the surgeon in preoperative planning and surgical reconstruction. Between November 1994 and July 1996, 20 patients presenting 22 tibial plateau fractures were considered in this study. They all underwent surgical treatment. The fractures were classified according to the Müller AO classification. They were all investigated by means of standard X-rays (AP, profile, oblique) and the 3D CT. Analysis of the results has shown the superiority of 3D CT in the planning (easier and more acute), in the classification (more precise), and in the exact assessment of the lesions (quantity of fragments); thereby proving to be of undeniable value of the surgeon.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital : predictive value of patient and process characteristics

RESUME: Introduction L'objectif de cette étude prospective de cohorte était d'estimer l'efficacité d'un processus de prise en charge standardisé de patients dépendants de l'alcool dans le contexte d'un hôpital universitaire de soins généraux. Ce modèle de prise en charge comprenait une évaluation multidisciplinaire puis des propositions de traitements individualisées et spécifiques (« projet thérapeutique »). Patients et méthode 165 patients alcoolo-dépendants furent recrutés dans différents services de l'hôpital universitaire, y compris la policlinique de médecine. Ils furent dans un premier temps évalués par une équipe multidisciplinaire (médecin interniste, psychiatre, assistant social), puis un projet thérapeutique spécialisé et individualisé leur fut proposé lors d'une rencontre réunissant le patient et l'équipe. Tous les patients éligibles acceptant de participer à l'étude (n=68) furent interrogés au moment de l'inclusion puis 2 et 6 mois plus tard par une psychologue. Des informations standardisées furent recueillies sur les caractéristiques des patients, le processus de prise en charge et l'évolution à 6 mois. Les critères de succès utilisés à 6 mois furent: l'adhérence au traitement proposé et l'abstinence d'alcool. Résultats Lors de l'évaluation à 6 mois, 43% des patients étaient toujours en traitement et 28% étaient abstinents. Les variables prédictrices de succès parmi les caractéristiques des patients étaient un âge de plus de 45 ans, ne pas vivre seul, avoir un travail et être motivé pour un traitement (RAATE-A <18). Pour les variables dépendantes du processus de prise en charge, un sevrage complet de l'alcool lors de la rencontre multidisciplinaire ainsi que la présence de tous les membres de l'équipe à cette réunion étaient des facteurs associés au succès. Conclusion L'efficacité de ce modèle d'intervention pour patients dépendants de l'alcool en hôpital de soins généraux s'est montrée satisfaisante, en particulier pour le critère de succès adhérence au traitement. Des variables associées au succès ou à l'échec à 6 mois ont pu être mises en évidence, permettant d'identifier des populations de patients évoluant différemment. Des stratégies de prise en charge tenant compte de ces éléments pourraient donc être développées, permettant de proposer des traitements plus adaptés ainsi qu'une meilleure rétention des patients alcooliques dans les programmes thérapeutiques. ABSTRACT. To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence, alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43% for treatment adherence and 28% for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow the identification of subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

The value of intraoperative ultrasound in oblique corpectomy for cervical spondylotic myelopathy and ossified posterior longitudinal ligament.

Intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS) has been described to be useful during central corpectomy for compressive cervical myelopathy. This study aimed at documenting the utility of IOUS in oblique cervical corpectomy (OCC). Prospective data from 24 patients undergoing OCC for cervical spondylotic myelopathy and ossified posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) were collected. Patients had a preoperative cervical spine magnetic resonance (MR) image, IOUS and a postoperative cervical CT scan. Retrospective data from 16 historical controls that underwent OCC without IOUS were analysed to compare the incidence of residual compression between the two groups. IOUS identified the vertebral artery in all cases, detected residual cord compression in six (27%) and missed compression in two cases (9%). In another two cases with OPLL, IOUS was sub-optimal due to shadowing. IOUS measurement of the corpectomy width correlated well with these measurements on the postoperative CT. The extent of cord expansion noted on IOUS after decompression showed no correlation with immediate or 6-month postoperative neurological recovery. No significant difference in residual compression was noted in the retrospective and prospective groups of the study. Craniocaudal spinal cord motion was noted after the completion of the corpectomy. IOUS is an inexpensive and simple real-time imaging modality that may be used during OCC for cervical spondylotic myelopathy. It is helpful in identifying the vertebral artery and determining the trajectory of approach, however, it has limited utility in patients with OPLL due to artifacts from residual ossification.

Detection of hemorrhage source: the diagnostic value of post-mortem CT-angiography.

The aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic value of post-mortem computed tomography angiography (PMCTA) to conventional, ante-mortem computed tomography (CT)-scan, CT-angiography (CTA) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA) in the detection and localization of the source of bleeding in cases of acute hemorrhage with fatal outcomes. The medical records and imaging scans of nine individuals who underwent a conventional, ante-mortem CT-scan, CTA or DSA and later died in the hospital as a result of an acute hemorrhage were reviewed. Post-mortem computed tomography angiography, using multi-phase post-mortem CTA, as well as medico-legal autopsies were performed. Localization accuracy of the bleeding was assessed by comparing the diagnostic findings of the different techniques. The results revealed that data from ante-mortem and post-mortem radiological examinations were similar, though the PMCTA showed a higher sensitivity for detecting the hemorrhage source than did ante-mortem radiological investigations. By comparing the results of PMCTA and conventional autopsy, much higher sensitivity was noted in PMCTA in identifying the source of the bleeding. In fact, the vessels involved were identified in eight out of nine cases using PMCTA and only in three cases through conventional autopsy. Our study showed that PMCTA, similar to clinical radiological investigations, is able to precisely identify lesions of arterial and/or venous vessels and thus determine the source of bleeding in cases of acute hemorrhages with fatal outcomes.

The prognostic value of minimally involved melanoma sentinel lymph nodes

Introduction: la biopsie du ganglion sentinelle (GS) est une procédure reconnue et fiable pour établir le stade ganglionnaire du mélanome cutané. Le GS est le facteur pronostique le plus puissant pour la survie des patients atteints d'un mélanome à risque intermédiaire, cliniquement localisé. Celui-ci est métastatique dans environ 15-30% des cas. Lorsque le GS est positif, un curage de l'aire ganglionnaire concernée est généralement entrepris. Néanmoins, seuls 20-25% de ces patients présentent des ganglions non-sentinelles (GNS) métastatiques. Ces données suggèrent que le curage, et les risques opératoires qui y sont associés, n'est peut-être pas nécessaire chez le trois-quarts de ces patients. Un autre aspect est que l'impact sur la survie des curages basé sur le résultat du GS n'est pas clairement démontré. La nécessité de ce curage d'emblé est actuellement en cours d'évaluation par un protocole international (Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial II : MSLT II). Plusieurs auteurs ont essayé de classifier la charge tumorale du GS afin d'évaluer s'il était possible d'épargner le curage à certains patients et de mieux affiner ce facteur pronostic sans succès. En 2009, le Groupe Mélanome de l'EORTC (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer) a recommandé un protocole d'évaluation anatomopathologique du GS-positif en trois items: (1) la localisation micro-anatomique des métastases à l'intérieur du ganglion selon Dewar (A = sous-capsulaire, B = combinée sous-capsulaire and parenchymateuse, C = parenchymateuse, D = multifocale, and'E = extensive) ; (2) la mesure de la taille tumorale dans le ganglion selon les critères de Rotterdam pour le diamètre maximal. Le diamètre de la plus grande métastase est exprimé en nombre absolu et (3) la taille tumorale stratifiée par catégories : <0.1mm, 0.1-1.0mm et >1.0 mm. Le but de cette étude rétrospective d'une cohorte de patients, était d'investiguer les résultats des GS-positifs et d'analyser les facteurs pronostiques de la survie à la lumière des recommandations de l'EORTC. Ainsi que de comparer les sous-groupes du GS-positif avec une invasion minimale (taille tumorale <0.1mm et/ou atteinte sous-capsulaire) avec le GS-négatif. Les facteurs pouvant prédire la présence de GNS- positif ont également été analysés. Matériel et méthode : une étude des dossiers a été réalisée pour les 499 patients consécutifs entre 1997 et 2008 qui ont eu une biopsie du GS dans notre institution. Le dégrée d'envahissement du GS-positif a été entièrement revue par l'équipe référente de l'Institut de Pathologie (Dresse E. Saiji et Dresse H. Bouzourène) selon les recommandations de l'EORTC. Des analyses univariées et multivariées des potentiels facteuis pronostics ont été réalisées. Des analyses de survie ont également été effectuées avec des courbes d'estimation de Kaplan-Meier combinées à une régression de Cox. Le protocole a été accepté par la Commission d'Ethique. Résultats: un GS-positif a été trouvé chez 123 (25%) patients panni les 499 qui ont bénéficié d'une biopsie. Avec un suivi médian de 52 mois, la survie à 5 ans sans récidive (SSR), spécifique à la maladie (SS) et globale (SG) étaient de 88%, 94%, et 90% respectivement pour les patients avec GS-négatif. Concernant les GS avec invasion minimale, 21 patients étaient dans le sous-groupe <0.1 mm selon les critères de Rotterdam et 52 patients dans le sous-groupe sous-capsulaire selon Dewar. La survie dans ces deux sous-groupes était de 80% et 57% pour la SSR, 87% et 70% pour la SS, 87% et 68% pour la SG, respectivement. L'analyse multivariée des GS-positifs a montré que les facteuis suivants influençaient significativement la survie (SSR, SS et SG): l'épaisseur selon Breslow de la tumeur primaire (p=0.002, 0.006, 0.004), la taille tumorale du GS-positif >0.1 mm (p= 0.01, 0.04, 0.03), le genre masculin (p=0.06, 0.005, 0.002) et l'ulcération de la tumeur primaire (p=0.05, 0.03, 0.007). L'analyse des sous-groupes avec invasion minimale n'a pas permis d'établir de facteur pour prédire la négativité des GNSs. Conclusion: La classification du GS-positif par la taille tumorale selon les critères de Rotterdam est un facteur pronostique simple et utile pour évaluer la survie des patients atteints de mélanome. Nous avons observé une tendance (non statistiquement significative) d'une survie diminuée pour le sous-groupe des patients avec GS-positif et une taille de la métastase <0.1 mm comparée à celle des patients avec GS-négatif. Ceci nous incite à conclure que ce sous-groupe de patients ne devrait pas être assimilé et traité comme ceux qui ont un GS-négatif. D'autre part nos résultats montrent que la localisation micro-anatomique selon Dewar n'est pas un outil pronostique utile pour évaluer la survie, ni pour prédire le status des GNSs.

Prognostic and predictive value of centrally reviewed Ki-67 labeling index in postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer: results from Breast International Group Trial 1-98 comparing adjuvant tamoxifen with letrozole.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of Ki-67 labeling index (LI) in a trial comparing letrozole (Let) with tamoxifen (Tam) as adjuvant therapy in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Breast International Group (BIG) trial 1-98 randomly assigned 8,010 patients to four treatment arms comparing Let and Tam with sequences of each agent. Of 4,922 patients randomly assigned to receive 5 years of monotherapy with either agent, 2,685 had primary tumor material available for central pathology assessment of Ki-67 LI by immunohistochemistry and had tumors confirmed to express estrogen receptors after central review. The prognostic and predictive value of centrally measured Ki-67 LI on disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed among these patients using proportional hazards modeling, with Ki-67 LI values dichotomized at the median value of 11%. RESULTS: Higher values of Ki-67 LI were associated with adverse prognostic factors and with worse DFS (hazard ratio [HR; high:low] = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.3). The magnitude of the treatment benefit for Let versus Tam was greater among patients with high tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.53; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.72) than among patients with low tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.15; interaction P = .09). CONCLUSION: Ki-67 LI is confirmed as a prognostic factor in this study. High Ki-67 LI levels may identify a patient group that particularly benefits from initial Let adjuvant therapy.

Biodiversity value of potential forest fertilisation stands, as assessed by red-listed and "signal" bryophytes and lichens

Abstract

Multimodal Strategies in Development.Predictive Value of early simultaneosgesture-speech comination

The present study investigates the predictive value of the early appearance of simultaneous pointing-speech combinations. An experimental task was used to obtain a communicative productive sample from nineteen children at 1;0 and 1;3. Infant’s communicative productions, in combination with gaze joint engagement patterns, were analyzed in relation to different social conditions. The results show a significant effect of age and social condition on infants’ communicative productions. Gesture-speech combinations seem to work as a strong communicative resource to attract the adult’s attention in social demanding communicative contexts. Gaze joint engagement was used in combination with simultaneous pointing-speech combinations to attract adults’ attention during social demanding conditions. Finally, the use of simultaneous pointing-speech combinations at 1;0 in demanding conditions predicted greater expressive vocabulary acquisition at 1;3 and 1;6. These results indicate that the use of gesture-speech combinations may be considered a significant step towards the early integration of language components.

Predictive Value of Readiness, Importance, and Confidence in Ability to Change Drinking and Smoking

Background: Visual analog scales (VAS) are used to assess readiness to changeconstructs, which are often considered critical for change.Objective: We studied whether 3 constructs -readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence inability to change- predict risk status 6 months later in 20 year-old men with either orboth of two behaviors: risky drinking and smoking. Methods: 577 participants in abrief intervention randomized trial were assessed at baseline and 6 months later onalcohol and tobacco consumption and with three 1-10 VAS (readiness, importance,confidence) for each behavior. For each behavior, we used one regression model foreach constructs. Models controlled for receipt of a brief intervention and used thelowest level (1-4) in each construct as the reference group (vs medium (5-7) and high(8-10) levels).Results: Among the 475 risky drinkers, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking were 4.0 (3.1), 2.8 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0).Readiness was not associated with being alcohol-risk free 6 months later (OR 1.3[0.7; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.8; 2.6] for medium and high readiness). High importance andhigh confidence were associated with being risk free (OR 0.9 [0.5; 1.8] and 2.9 [1.2;7.5] for medium and high importance; 2.1 [1.0;4.8] and 2.8 [1.5;5.6] for medium andhigh confidence). Among the 320 smokers, mean readiness, importance andconfidence to change smoking were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.6). Neitherreadiness nor importance were associated with being smoking free (OR 2.1 [0.9; 4.7]and 2.1 [0.8; 5.8] for medium and high readiness; 1.4 [0.6; 3.4] and 2.1 [0.8; 5.4] formedium and high importance). High confidence was associated with being smokingfree (OR 2.2 [0.8;6.6] and 3.4 [1.2;9.8] for medium and high confidence).Conclusions: For drinking and smoking, high confidence in ability to change wasassociated -with similar magnitude- with a favorable outcome. This points to thevalue of confidence as an important predictor of successful change.