Northern range extension, abundance and distribution of Pacific coastal Bottlenose doplhins (Tursiops truncatus gilli) in Monterey Bay, California

Pacific coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus gilli) have apparently moved to Monterey Bay as a result of a shift north of their known range. Between 1983 and 1993, 417 sightings were reported off central California. Eighty-four boat-based surveys, between October 1990 and November 1993, resulted in the photo-identification of 68 uniquely marked individuals. School size ranged between 2 and 35 animals (mean = 16.60, S.D. = 7.72). Forty-three (63%) of the dolphins identified were previously photographed in the Southern California Bight before 1989. Jolly-Seber population estimates indicated an increase in the Monterey Bay population from 1990 to 1993. At least 13 of the photo-identified dolphins were present in Monterey Bay throughout the study period. All but two of the calculated coefficients of association were 0.35, indicating a strong bond among resident animals. The occurrence of an El Niño from January 1992 to the end of 1993 may have affected the number of animals present in the bay: mean school size was significantly greater during El Niño.

Using climate extension to assist coastal decision-makers with climate adaptation

Coastal managers need accessible, trusted, tailored resources to help them interpret climate information, identify vulnerabilities, and apply climate information to decisions about adaptation on regional and local levels. For decades, climate scientists have studied the impacts that short term natural climate variability and long term climate change will have on coastal systems. For example, recent estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming scenarios suggest that global sea levels may rise 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100 (Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2009). Many low-lying coastal ecosystems and communities will experience more frequent salt water intrusion events, more frequent coastal flooding, and accelerated erosion rates before they experience significant inundation. These changes will affect the ways coastal managers make decisions, such as timing surface and groundwater withdrawals, replacing infrastructure, and planning for changing land use on local and regional levels. Despite the advantages, managers’ use of scientific information about climate variability and change remains limited in environmental decision-making (Dow and Carbone 2007). Traditional methods scientists use to disseminate climate information, like peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at conferences, are inappropriate to fill decision-makers’ needs for applying accessible, relevant climate information to decision-making. General guides that help managers scope out vulnerabilities and risks are becoming more common; for example, Snover et al. (2007) outlines a basic process for local and state governments to assess climate change vulnerability and preparedness. However, there are few tools available to support more specific decision-making needs. A recent survey of coastal managers in California suggests that boundary institutions can help to fill the gaps between climate science and coastal decision-making community (Tribbia and Moser 2008). The National Sea Grant College Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) university-based program for supporting research and outreach on coastal resource use and conservation, is one such institution working to bridge these gaps through outreach. Over 80% of Sea Grant’s 32 programs are addressing climate issues, and over 60% of programs increased their climate outreach programming between 2006 and 2008 (National Sea Grant Office 2008). One way that Sea Grant is working to assist coastal decision-makers with using climate information is by developing effective methods for coastal climate extension. The purpose of this paper is to discuss climate extension methodologies on regional scales, using the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) as an example of Sea Grant’s growing capacities for climate outreach and extension. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Hidden Type Variables and Conditional Extension for More Expressive Generic Programs

Generic object-oriented programming languages combine parametric polymorphism and nominal subtype polymorphism, thereby providing better data abstraction, greater code reuse, and fewer run-time errors. However, most generic object-oriented languages provide a straightforward combination of the two kinds of polymorphism, which prevents the expression of advanced type relationships. Furthermore, most generic object-oriented languages have a type-erasure semantics: instantiations of type parameters are not available at run time, and thus may not be used by type-dependent operations. This dissertation shows that two features, which allow the expression of many advanced type relationships, can be added to a generic object-oriented programming language without type erasure: 1. type variables that are not parameters of the class that declares them, and 2. extension that is dependent on the satisfiability of one or more constraints. We refer to the first feature as hidden type variables and the second feature as conditional extension. Hidden type variables allow: covariance and contravariance without variance annotations or special type arguments such as wildcards; a single type to extend, and inherit methods from, infinitely many instantiations of another type; a limited capacity to augment the set of superclasses after that class is defined; and the omission of redundant type arguments. Conditional extension allows the properties of a collection type to be dependent on the properties of its element type. This dissertation describes the semantics and implementation of hidden type variables and conditional extension. A sound type system is presented. In addition, a sound and terminating type checking algorithm is presented. Although designed for the Fortress programming language, hidden type variables and conditional extension can be incorporated into other generic object-oriented languages. Many of the same problems would arise, and solutions analogous to those we present would apply.

Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

Modular average case analysis: Language implementation and extension

Motivated by accurate average-case analysis, MOdular Quantitative Analysis (MOQA) is developed at the Centre for Efficiency Oriented Languages (CEOL). In essence, MOQA allows the programmer to determine the average running time of a broad class of programmes directly from the code in a (semi-)automated way. The MOQA approach has the property of randomness preservation which means that applying any operation to a random structure, results in an output isomorphic to one or more random structures, which is key to systematic timing. Based on original MOQA research, we discuss the design and implementation of a new domain specific scripting language based on randomness preserving operations and random structures. It is designed to facilitate compositional timing by systematically tracking the distributions of inputs and outputs. The notion of a labelled partial order (LPO) is the basic data type in the language. The programmer uses built-in MOQA operations together with restricted control flow statements to design MOQA programs. This MOQA language is formally specified both syntactically and semantically in this thesis. A practical language interpreter implementation is provided and discussed. By analysing new algorithms and data restructuring operations, we demonstrate the wide applicability of the MOQA approach. Also we extend MOQA theory to a number of other domains besides average-case analysis. We show the strong connection between MOQA and parallel computing, reversible computing and data entropy analysis.

Spatial, temporal and spectral scale of POC estimations for the Kuroshio Extension from satellite based observations in the wintertime

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 444

Bacterial Biomass along the Kuroshio Extension

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Determination of the Change in Anthropogenic Carbon Content in the Kuroshio Extension over the past 20 years using the C* Method

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Satellite based productivity models across the Kuroshio extension

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Underway O2/Ar-estiment net community production across the Kuroshio Extension and impact on winter pCO2 drawdown

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Meridional mixing of water masses in the Kuroshio Extension: Origins of North Pacific Intermediate Water anomalies

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445