Temperatures at the last interglacial simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model

The last interglacial (Eemian, 125,000 years ago) has generally been considered the warmest time period in the last 200,000 years and thus sometimes been used as a reference for greenhouse projections. Herein we report results from a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model of the surface temperature response to changes in the radiative forcing at the last interglacial. Although the model generates the expected summer warming in the northern hemisphere, winter cooling of a comparable magnitude occurs over North Africa and tropical Asia. The global annual mean temperature for the Eemian run is 0.3 degrees C cooler than the control run. Validation of simulated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) against reconstructed SSTs supports this conclusion and also the assumption that the flux correction, fitted for the present state, operates satisfactorily for modest perturbations. Our results imply that contrary to conventional expectations, Eemian global temperatures may already have been reached by the mid 20th century.

Paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic evolution of the Aegean Sea since the last interglacial (~130 ka BP) with special emphasis on sapropel formation

Five long piston cores collected from different subbasins of the Aegean Sea constitute the primary source of data for this PhD thesis. This study is the first to document a continuous paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic record of the Aegean Sea since the last interglacial. The chronostratigraphic reconstructions of the cored sediments based on organic carbon contents, stratigraphic position of known ash layers and oxygen isotopic curve matching collectively demonstrate the presence of sapropel S1 and MISS sapropels S3, S4 and S5 in the Aegean Sea subbasins. Generally, the organic carbon (TOC wt%) contents in sapropels range between 0.8% and 2% with highest concentrations of 9-13% in sapropels S4 and S5. Average sedimentation rates range between 4.7 and 11.8 cmlka with highest rates being observed in Euboea and North Ikaria basins (9.8 and 11.8 cm lka, respectively). The timing of the onset of sapropels S4 and S5 mostly predate those in the eastern Mediterranean with ages ranging from 106.4-105.6 and 128.6-128.4 ka BP, respectively. On the other hand, the initiation of the onset of sapropel S3 (i.e., 83.2-80.4 ka BP) seems to agree with its Mediterranean counterparts, which highlights the heterogeneity of the Aegean Sea subbasins in terms of rapid vs. lagged response to changing climatic conditions. The sapropel initiations appear to be synchronous across the Aegean Sea; whereas, the terminations display a wider temporal variability implying that the cessation of sapropels is controlled both by the amplitude of paleoclimatic changes and the physiography/location ofthe subbasins. Quantitative variations in the planktonic faunal assemblages exhibit a sequence of bioevents during the last -130,000 years which allow identification of four major biozones. The distributional patterns of the most significant taxa demonstrate similar trends among all core localities suggesting that the major changes in the planktonic foraminifera assemblages have taken place rather synchronously in the Aegean Sea. Sapropels S3, S4 and S5 were deposited under similar hydrographic conditions during which a distinct deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) layer was established. This situation points to a stratified water column and increased export productivity during times of sapropel formation. On the other hand, the faunal contrast between Sl and older sapropels indicates that the former was developed in the absence of a DCM layer, lacking a deep phytoplankton assemblage. Under such conditions, oxygen advection via intermediate water flow must have been significantly reduced which implies significant stagnation. Sapropels are interpreted to have been deposited under normal marine conditions with temporary establishment of semi-euxinic bottom water conditions. Both marine and terrestrial organic matter contributed equally to MISS sapropels. In addition, organic carbon isotopic values across sapropels are more depleted than those in the eastern Mediterranean which, in tum, suggests enhanced riverine input during their deposition. Primary productivity calculations show that, particularly for sapropels with very high TOC values, both preservation and increased productivity are imperative in order to deposit sapropels with very high organic carbon contents (i.e., up to 13%).

LPJ-LMfire simulations for Europe for the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial control, link to netCDF files

This data sets contains LPJ-LMfire dynamic global vegetation model output covering Europe and the Mediterranean for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka) and for a preindustrial control simulation (20th century detrended climate). The netCDF data files are time averages of the final 30 years of the model simulation. Each netCDF file contains four or five variables: fractional cover of 9 plant functional types (PFTs; cover), total fractional coverage of trees (treecover), population density of hunter-gatherers (foragerPD; only for the "people" simulations), fraction of the gridcell burned on 30-year average (burnedf), and vegetation net primary productivity (NPP). The model spatial resolution is 0.5-degrees For the LGM simulations, LPJ-LMfire was driven by the PMIP3 suite of eight GCMs for which LGM climate simulations were available. Also provided in this archive is the result of an LPJ-LMfire run that was forced by the average climate of all GCMs (the "GCM-mean" files), and the average of each of the individual LPJ-LMfire runs over the eight LGM scenarios individually (the "LPJ-mean" files). The model simulations are provided that include the influence of human presence on the landscape (the "people" files), and in a "world without humans" scenario (the "natural" files). Finally this archive contains the preindustrial reference simulation with and without human influence ("PI_reference_people" and "PI_reference_nat", respectively). There are therefore 22 netCDF files in this archive: 8 each of LGM simulations with and without people (total 16) and the "GCM mean" simulation (2 files) and the "LPJ mean" aggregate (2 files), and finally the two preindustrial "control" simulations ("PI"), with and without humans (2 files). In addition to the LPJ-LMfire model output (netCDF files), this archive also contains a table of arboreal pollen percent calculated from pollen samples dated to the LGM at sites throughout (lgmAP.txt), and a table containing the location of archaeological sites dated to the LGM (LGM_archaeological_site_locations.txt).

Planktic foraminiferal and sea surface temperature record during the last 1 Myr across the Subtropical Front, Southwest Pacific

Planktic foraminiferal faunas and modern analogue technique estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) for the last 1 million years (Myr) are compared between core sites to the north (ODP 1125, 178 faunas) and south (DSDP 594, 374 faunas) of the present location of the Subtropical Front (STF), east of New Zealand. Faunas beneath cool subtropical water (STW) north of the STF are dominated by dextral Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Globorotalia inflata, and Globigerina bulloides, whereas faunas to the south are strongly dominated by sinistral N. pachyderma (80-95% in glacials), with increased G. bulloides (20-50%) and dextral N. pachyderma (15-50%) in interglacials (beneath Subantarctic Water, or SAW). Canonical correspondence analysis indicates that at both sites, SST and related factors were the most important environmental influences on faunal composition. Greater climate-related faunal fluctuations occur in the south. Significant faunal changes occur through time at both sites, particularly towards the end of the mid-Pleistocene climate transition, MIS18-15 (e.g., decline of Globorotalia crassula in STW, disappearance of Globorotalia puncticulata in SAW), and during MIS8-5. Interglacial SST estimates in the north are similar to the present day throughout the last 1 Myr. To the south, interglacial SSTs are more variable with peaks 4-7 °C cooler than present through much of the early and middle Pleistocene, but in MIS11, MIS5.5, and early MIS1, peaks are estimated to have been 2-4 °C warmer than present. These high temperatures are attributed to southward spread of the STF across the submarine Chatham Rise, along which the STF appears to have been dynamically positioned throughout most of the last 1 Myr. For much of the last 1 Myr, glacial SST estimates in the north were only 1-2 °C cooler than the present interglacial, except in MIS16, MIS8, MIS6, and MIS4-2 when estimates are 4-7 °C cooler. These cooler temperatures are attributed to jetting of SAW through the Mernoo Saddle (across the Chatham Rise) and/or waning of the STW current. To the south, glacial SST estimates were consistently 10-11 °C cooler than present, similar to temperatures and faunas currently found in the vicinity of the Polar Front. One interpretation is that these cold temperatures reflect thermocline changes and increased Circumpolar Surface Water spinning off the Subantarctic Front as an enhanced Bounty Gyre along the south side of the Chatham Rise. For most of the last 1 Myr, the temperature gradient across the STF has been considerably greater than the present 4 °C. During glacial episodes, the STF in this region did not migrate northwards, but instead there was an intensification of the temperature gradient across it (interglacials 4-11 °C; glacials 8-14 °C).

Sea-surface temperature reconstruction of sediment cores from the Skagerrak

We attempt a reconstruction of salinity levels of the central Baltic Sea based on diatom assemblages, the isotopic composition of organic matter and sedimentological expression of anoxia over the last 10 000 years. We use the data to investigate the dependence of salinity levels on climate evolution and isostasy. Changes in salinity of surface and deep waters were most pronounced from 8400 to approximately 5000 cal. BP. Density stratification between salty deep and fresher surface waters caused the frequent development of anoxic conditions and deposition of laminated sediments on large parts of the sea floor in the central Baltic Sea, and dramatic changes in organic carbon-accumulation rates. From 5000 to 3100 cal. BP, the salinity of the basin decreased, oxygenation of deep sea floors was improved, and fertility of the sea surface was significantly reduced. This is reflected by low accumulation rates of organic carbon in bioturbated sediments. Since 2800 cal. BP, salinity rose again and anoxic periods were more common. Even though the major steps in environmental evolution in the Baltic Sea coincide with known patterns of climatic change of the North Atlantic realm over the last 10 000 years, we find no conclusive evidence for synchronous changes or linear responses on submillennial timescales. However, we note that major variations in our salinity records agree with temporal patterns of reconstructed summer warmth and winter precipitation in southern Scandinavia. Both types of record suggest that climate in the mid-Holocene was far from stable. Our data also confirm that climate evolution over the late Holocene had significant impact on environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea.

Sedimentary record of the western Amundsen Sea Embayment after the last glacial maximum

Reliable dating of glaciomarine sediments deposited on the Antarctic shelf since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is very challenging because of the general absence of calcareous (micro-) fossils and the recycling of fossil organic matter. As a consequence, radiocarbon (14C) ages of the acid-insoluble organic fraction (AIO) of the sediments bear uncertainties that are very difficult to quantify. In this paper we present the results of three different chronostratigraphic methods to date a sedimentary unit consisting of diatomaceous ooze and diatomaceous mud that was deposited following the last deglaciation at five core sites on the inner shelf in the western Amundsen Sea (West Antarctica). In three cores conventional 14C dating of the AIO in bulk sediment samples yielded age reversals down-core, but at all sites the AIO 14C ages obtained from diatomaceous ooze within the diatom-rich unit yielded similar uncorrected 14C ages ranging from 13,517±56 to 11,543±47 years before present (yr BP). Correction of these ages by subtracting the core-top ages, which are assumed to reflect present-day deposition (as indicated by 21044 Pb dating of the sediment surface at one core site), yielded ages between ca. 10,500 and 8,400 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP). Correction of the AIO ages of the diatomaceous ooze by only subtracting the marine reservoir effect (MRE) of 1,300 years indicated deposition of the diatom-rich sediments between 14,100 and 11,900 cal yr BP. Most of these ages are consistent with age constraints between 13.0 and 8.0 ka BP for the diatom-rich unit, which we obtained by correlating the relative palaeomagnetic intensity (RPI) records of three of the sediment cores with global and regional reference curves for palaeomagnetic intensity. As a third dating technique we applied conventional 53 radiocarbon dating of the AIO included in acid-cleaned diatom hard parts that were extracted from the diatomaceous ooze. This method yielded uncorrected 14C ages of only 5,111±38 and 5,106±38 yr BP, respectively. We reject these young ages, because they are likely to be overprinted by the adsorption of modern atmospheric carbon dioxide onto the surfaces of the extracted diatom hard parts prior to sample graphitisation and combustion for 14C dating. The deposition of the diatom-rich unit in the western Amundsen Sea suggests deglaciation of the inner shelf before ca. 13 ka BP. The deposition of diatomaceous oozes on other parts of the Antarctic shelf around the same time, however, seems to be coincidental rather than directly related.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the last glacial

We reconstruct the geometry and strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Heinrich Stadial 2 and three Greenland interstadials of the 20-50 ka period based on the comparison of new and published sedimentary 231Pa/230Th data with simulated sedimentary 231Pa/230Th. We show that the deep Atlantic circulation during these interstadials was very different from that of the Holocene. Northern-sourced waters likely circulated above 2500 m depth, with a flow rate lower than that of the present day North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Southern-sourced deep waters most probably flowed northwards below 4000 m depth into the North Atlantic basin, and then southwards as a return flow between 2500 and 4000 m depth. The flow rate of this southern-sourced deep water was likely larger than that of the modern Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Our results further show that during Heinrich Stadial 2, the deep Atlantic was probably directly affected by a southern-sourced water mass below 2500 m depth, while a slow southward flowing water mass originating from the North Atlantic likely influenced depths between 1500 and 2500 m down to the equator.

Clydebank in the inter-war years: a study in economic and social change

The main theme of this thesis is the social, economic and political response of a single community to economic dislocation in the interwar years. The community under consideration is Clydebank., The thesis is divided into several parts. Part I establishes the development of the burgh and considers the physical framework of the community, mainly in the years before 1919. The town's characteristics are examined in terms of population structure and development between the world wars. In the last part of this section there is a review of the economic structure of the burgh and changes occurring in it between 1919 and 1939. In Part II consideration is given to the actual extent and form of the unemployment affecting Clydebank at this time, and comparison is made with other communities and geographic/economic areas. Attention is then focussed more narrowly on the actual individuals suffering unemployment in the burgh during the 1930s, in an attempt to personalise the experience of the unemployed. Part III reviews central and local government responses to the situation in which Clydebank found itself oetween 1919 and 1939. Central government policies discussed include unemployment insurance, public works, the Special Areas legislation, assistance in the construction of the 534 "Queen Mary" and the direction of financial support to areas of particular need. Amongst local authority actions described are additional local support for the poor, public works, efforts to attract new industry to the town, attempts to deal with the housing problem which was particularly acute at times of high unemployment and measures to maintain health standards in the community. In Part IV the responses of the community to unemployment and government policies are detailed. The burgh's commercial sector is surveyed as are developments in leisure provision, religion, temperance and crime, and local politics. A number of individual responses are also given consideration such as migration, commuting, changes in birth and marriage rates and suicide.

Spatial variability of satured soil hydraulic conductivity in the region of Araguaia River - Brazil.

This study evaluates the spatial variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity in the soil in an area of 51,850 ha at the headwaters of the Araguaia River MT/GO. This area is highly vulnerable because it is a location of recharging through natural water infiltration of the Guarani Aquifer System and an area of intense increases in agriculture since its adoption by growers in the last 30 years. Soil samples were collected at 383 points, geographically located by GPS. The samples were collected from depths of 0 - 20 cm and 60 - 80 cm. Exploratory statistics and box-plot were used in the descriptive analysis and semivariogram were constructed to determine the spatial model. The exploratory analysis showed that the mean hydraulic conductivity in the superficial layer was less than at the level of 60-80 cm; however, the greatest variability evaluated with a coefficient of variation also was from this layer. Data tended towards a normal distribution. These results can be explained by the greater soil compaction in the superficial layer. The semivariogram models, adjusted for the two layers, were exponential and demonstrated moderate and strong dependence, with ranges of 5000 and 3000 utm respectively. It was concluded that soil use is influencing the spatial distribution model of the hydraulic conductivity in the region.

Estimated Disability-adjusted Life Years Averted By Long-term Provision Of Long Acting Contraceptive Methods In A Brazilian Clinic.

What is the contribution of the provision, at no cost for users, of long acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC; copper intrauterine device [IUD], the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system [LNG-IUS], contraceptive implants and depot-medroxyprogesterone [DMPA] injection) towards the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted through a Brazilian university-based clinic established over 30 years ago. Over the last 10 years of evaluation, provision of LARC methods and DMPA by the clinic are estimated to have contributed to DALY averted by between 37 and 60 maternal deaths, 315-424 child mortalities, 634-853 combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. LARC methods are associated with a high contraceptive effectiveness when compared with contraceptive methods which need frequent attention; perhaps because LARC methods are independent of individual or couple compliance. However, in general previous studies have evaluated contraceptive methods during clinical studies over a short period of time, or not more than 10 years. Furthermore, information regarding the estimation of the DALY averted is scarce. We reviewed 50 004 medical charts from women who consulted for the first time looking for a contraceptive method over the period from 2 January 1980 through 31 December 2012. Women who consulted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Campinas, Brazil were new users and users switching contraceptive, including the copper IUD (n = 13 826), the LNG-IUS (n = 1525), implants (n = 277) and DMPA (n = 9387). Estimation of the DALY averted included maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality and unsafe abortions averted. We obtained 29 416 contraceptive segments of use including 25 009 contraceptive segments of use from 20 821 new users or switchers to any LARC method or DMPA with at least 1 year of follow-up. The mean (± SD) age of the women at first consultation ranged from 25.3 ± 5.7 (range 12-47) years in the 1980s, to 31.9 ± 7.4 (range 16-50) years in 2010-2011. The most common contraceptive chosen at the first consultation was copper IUD (48.3, 74.5 and 64.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively). For an evaluation over 20 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates (SEM) were 0.4 (0.2), 2.8 (2.1), 4.0 (0.4) and 1.3 (0.4) for the LNG-IUS, the implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively and cumulative continuation rates (SEM) were 15.1 (3.7), 3.9 (1.4), 14.1 (0.6) and 7.3 (1.7) for the LNG-IUS, implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively (P < 0.001). Over the last 10 years of evaluation, the estimation of the contribution of the clinic through the provision of LARC methods and DMPA to DALY averted was 37-60 maternal deaths; between 315 and 424 child mortalities; combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality of between 634 and 853, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. The main limitations are the number of women who never returned to the clinic (overall 14% among the four methods under evaluation); consequently the pregnancy rate could be different. Other limitations include the analysis of two kinds of copper IUD and two kinds of contraceptive implants as the same IUD or implant, and the low number of users of implants. In addition, the DALY calculation relies on a number of estimates, which may vary in different parts of the world. LARC methods and DMPA are highly effective and women who were well-counselled used these methods for a long time. The benefit of averting maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality, and unsafe abortions is an example to health policy makers to implement more family planning programmes and to offer contraceptive methods, mainly LARC and DMPA, at no cost or at affordable cost for the underprivileged population. This study received partial financial support from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), grant # 2012/12810-4 and from the National Research Council (CNPq), grant #573747/2008-3. B.F.B., M.P.G., and V.M.C. were fellows from the scientific initiation programme from FAPESP. Since the year 2001, all the TCu380A IUD were donated by Injeflex, São Paulo, Brazil, and from the year 2006 all the LNG-IUS were donated by the International Contraceptive Access Foundation (ICA), Turku, Finland. Both donations are as unrestricted grants. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest associated with this study.

[renal Tumors: The International Society Of Urologic Pathology (isup) 2012 Consensus Conference Recommendations].

During the last 30 years many advances have been made in kidney tumor pathology. In 1981, 9 entities were recognized in the WHO Classification. In the latest classification of 2004, 50 different types have been recognized. Additional tumor entities have been described since and a wide variety of prognostic parameters have been investigated with variable success; however, much attention has centered upon the importance of features relating to both stage and grade. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) recommends after consensus conferences the development of reporting guidelines, which have been adopted worldwide ISUP undertook to review all aspects of the pathology of adult renal malignancy through an international consensus conference to be held in 2012. As in the past, participation in this consensus conference was restricted to acknowledged experts in the field.