Locating the Seattle Fault in Bellevue, WA: Combining geomorphic indicators with borehole data

The Seattle Fault is an active east-west trending reverse fault zone that intersects both Seattle and Bellevue, two highly populated cities in Washington. Rupture along strands of the fault poses a serious threat to infrastructure and thousands of people in the region. Precise locations of fault strands are still poorly constrained in Bellevue due to blind thrusting, urban development, and/or erosion. Seismic reflection and aeromagnetic surveys have shed light on structural geometries of the fault zone in bedrock. However, the fault displaces both bedrock and unconsolidated Quaternary deposits, and seismic data are poor indicators of the locations of fault strands within the unconsolidated strata. Fortunately, evidence of past fault strand ruptures may also be recorded indirectly by fluvial processes and should also be observable in the subsurface. I analyzed hillslope and river geomorphology using LiDAR data and ArcGIS to locate surface fault traces and then compare/correlate these findings to subsurface offsets identified using borehole data. Geotechnical borings were used to locate one fault offset and provide input to a cross section of the fault constructed using Rockworks software. Knickpoints, which may correlate to fault rupture, were found upstream of this newly identified fault offset as well as upstream of a previously known fault segment.

Impact of weather dependency on planning decisions in the australian national electricity market

A long-term planning method for the electricity market is to simulate market operation into the future. Outputs from market simulation include indicators for transmission augmentation and new generation investment. A key input to market simulations is demand forecasts. For market simulation purposes, regional demand forecasts for each half-hour interval of the forecasting horizon are required, and they must accurately represent realistic demand profiles and interregional demand relationships. In this paper, a demand model is developed to accurately model these relationships. The effects of uncertainty in weather patterns and inherent correlations between regional demands on market simulation results are presented. This work signifies the advantages of probabilistic modeling of demand levels when making market-based planning decisions.

Load profiling and data mining techniques in electricity deregulated market

This paper presents load profiles of electricity customers, using the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) procedure, a data mining technique, to determine the load profiles for different types of customers. In this paper, the current load profiling methods are compared using data mining techniques, by analysing and evaluating these classification techniques. The objective of this study is to determine the best load profiling methods and data mining techniques to classify, detect and predict non-technical losses in the distribution sector, due to faulty metering and billing errors, as well as to gather knowledge on customer behaviour and preferences so as to gain a competitive advantage in the deregulated market. This paper focuses mainly on the comparative analysis of the classification techniques selected; a forthcoming paper will focus on the detection and prediction methods.

Marking high-technology market evolution through the foci of market stories:the case of local area networks

Previous research suggests that changing consumer and producer knowledge structures play a role in market evolution and that the sociocognitive processes of product markets are revealed in the sensemaking stories of market actors that are rebroadcasted in commercial publications. In this article, the authors lend further support to the story-based nature of market sensemaking and the use of the sociocognitive approach in explaining the evolution of high-technology markets. They examine the content (i.e., subject matter or topic) and volume (i.e., the number) of market stories and the extent to which content and volume of market stories evolve as a technology emerges. Data were obtained from a content analysis of 10,412 article abstracts, published in key trade journals, pertaining to Local Area Network (LAN) technologies and spanning the period 1981 to 2000. Hypotheses concerning the evolving nature (content and volume) of market stories in technology evolution are tested. The analysis identified four categories of market stories - technical, product availability, product adoption, and product discontinuation. The findings show that the emerging technology passes initially through a 'technical-intensive' phase whereby technology related stories dominate, through a 'supply-push' phase, in which stories presenting products embracing the technology tend to exceed technical stories while there is a rise in the number of product adoption reference stories, to a 'product-focus' phase, with stories predominantly focusing on product availability. Overall story volume declines when a technology matures as the need for sensemaking reduces. When stories about product discontinuation surface, these signal the decline of current technology. New technologies that fail to maintain the 'product-focus' stage also reflect limited market acceptance. The article also discusses the theoretical and managerial implications of the study's findings. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Source of legitimacy in M-government initiatives in Turkey:concerns human vs. technical resource management

Emerging markets have recently been experiencing a dramatic increased in the number of mobile phone per capita. M-government has, hence, been heralded as an opportunity to leap-frog the technology cycle and provide cheaper and more inclusive and services to all. This chapter explores, within an emerging market context, the legitimacy and resistance facing civil servants’ at the engagement stage with m-government activities and the direct implication for resource management. Thirty in depth interview, in Turkey, are drawn-upon with key ICT civil servant in local organizations. The findings show that three types of resources are perceived as central namely: (i) diffusion of information management, (ii) operating system resource management and (iii) human resource management. The main evidence suggests that legitimacy for each resource management, at local level, is an ongoing struggle where all groups deploy multiples forms of resistance. Overall, greater attention in the resource management strategy for m-government application needs to be devoted to enablers such as civil servants rather than the final consumers or citizens.

Hand in hand:privatising five star hotels in Egypt through the stock market will enhance the latter's role as well as set an example of the benefits that could be gained from privatisation

This thesis examines the possibility of privatising public owned five star hotels in Egypt through its stock market in order to give a boost to the Egyptian privatisation programme and to help activate its stock market. To explore these aspects, two main technical exercises were executed. First the writer constructed, for the first time in Egypt, a daily price index for Cairo Stock Exchange and an index for the tourism sector, in order to analyze the efficiency of the capital market. This technical analysis showed that Cairo stock exchange is inefficient, stagnant and undergoes minimal fluctuations, especially when compared to other developed and emerging markets. Second, given the importance and complexity of the valuation of SOEs prior to their privatisation, a sample of three five star hotels that could be prime candidates for privatisation via the stock market in Egypt were selected and a detailed financial analysis for the three hotels was concluded. The result was a valuation range for the three hotels using various valuation methods. Nevertheless it was found out that the final value of hotels will be determined by the market itself. Depite the inefficiency of Cairo Stock Exchange, the thesis did not rule out privatisation through the stock market. On the contrary it cited several examples of developing countries that were able to successfully privatise some of their SOEs via their rudimentary capital markets. Finally, the thesis recommended that five star hotels could be pefect candidates for privatisation via the stock market in Egypt. This is because five star hotels are profitable, privately managed, non strategic and not highly capital intensive businesses. In addition, they do not suffer from overstaffing and the industry in which they operate i.e. tourism sector, has high growth prospects and is of an international nature. Therefore it is anticipated that privatisation of five star hotels can attract a lot of investors because of the relatively high returns. This in turn will help activate and popularize the capital market in Egypt. At the same time the benefits of privatisation would be more visible which will give more momentum to the privatisation programme and make it more politically acceptable.

Mapping the mind for the modern market researcher

Purpose - To describe the utility of three of the main cognitive neuroscientific techniques currently in use within the neuroscience community, and how they can be applied to the emerging field of neuromarket research. Design/methodology/approach - A brief development of functional magnetic resonance imaging, magnetoencephalography and transcranial magnetic stimulation are described, as the core principles are behind their respective use. Examples of actual data from each of the brain imaging techniques are provided to assist the neuromarketer with subsequent data for interpretation. Finally, to ensure the neuromarketer has an understanding of the experience of neuroimaging, qualitative data from a questionnaire exploring attitudes about neuroimaging techniques are included which summarize participants' experiences of having a brain scan. Findings - Cognitive neuroscientific techniques have great utility in market research and can provide more "honest" indicators of consumer preference where traditional methods such as focus groups can be unreliable. These techniques come with complementary strengths which allow the market researcher to converge onto a specific research question. In general, participants considered brain imaging techniques to be relatively safe. However, care is urged to ensure that participants are positioned correctly in the scanner as incorrect positioning is a stressful factor during an imaging procedure that can impact data quality. Originality/value - This paper is an important and comprehensive resource to the market researcher who wishes to use cognitive neuroscientific techniques.

Safety culture during major organisational change

This research examines the effect of major changes, in the external context, on the safety culture of a UK generating company. It was focused on an organisation which was originally part of the state owned Central Electricity Generating Board and which, by the end of the research period, was a self-contained generating company, operating in a competitive market and a wholly owned subsidiary of a US utility. The research represents an attempt to identify the nature and culture of the original organisation and to identify, analyse and explain the effects of the forces of change in moulding the final organisation. The research framework employed a qualitative methodology to investigate the effects of change, supported by a safety culture questionnaire, based on factors identified in the third report of the ACSNI Human Factors Study Group; Organising for Safety, as being indicators of safety culture. An additional research objective was to assess the usefulness of the ACSNI factors as indicators of safety culture. Findings were that the original organisation was an engineering dominated technocracy with a technocentric safety culture. Values and beliefs were very strongly held and resistant to change and much of the original safety culture survived unchanged into the new organisation. The effects of very long periods of uncertainty about the future were damaging to management/worker relationships but several factors were identified which effectively insulated the organisation from any of the effects of change. The forces of change had introduced a beneficial appreciation of the crucial relationship between safety risk assessment and commercial risk assessment.Although the technical strength of the original safety culture survived, so did the essential weakness of a low level of appreciation of the human behavioural aspects of safety. This led to a limited, functionalist world view of safety culture, which assumed that cultural change was simpler to achieve than was the case and an inability to make progress in certain areas which were essentially behavioural problems.The factors identified by ACSNI provided a useful basis for the site research methodology and for identifying areas of relative strength and weakness in the site safety arrangements.

Diversifying into technical clothing manufacture:a situated learning theory perspective

An organisation’s ability to internalise external knowledge and learn from various sources in undertaking new product development and/or entering a new market is crucial to its competitive performance. Nevertheless, little attention has been paid to how growth-oriented small firms identify and exploit entrepreneurial opportunities, i.e. take entrepreneurial action, related to such methods of development, in a mature, contracting industry. The latter is particularly relevant to recent discussion and debate in academic and policy-making circles concerning the salvage of the clothing manufacture industry in developed industrialised countries, by intensifying efforts relating to diversification into high value manufacturing sectors. This paper, based on an instrumental case-firm, demonstrates analytically how learning as entrepreneurial action relating to diversifying into /technical clothing – i.e. a high value manufacturing/innovatory sector - takes place, drawing on situated learning theory. It is argued that learning relating to such entrepreneurial action is dynamic in nature and is founded on specific organising principles that foster both inter- and intracommunal learning.

Market-driven strategies and the design of flexible production systems: evidence from the electronics industry

Links the concept of market-driven business strategies with the design of production systems. It draws upon the case of a firm which, during the last decade, changed its strategy from being “technology led” to “market driven”. The research, based on interdisciplinary fieldwork involving long-term participant observation, investigated the factors which contribute to the successful design and implementation of flexible production systems in electronics assembly. These investigations were conducted in collaboration with a major computer manufacturer, with other electronics firms being studied for comparison. The research identified a number of strategies and actions seen as crucial to the development of efficient flexible production systems, namely: effective integration of subsystems, development of appropriate controls and performance measures, compatibility between production system design and organization structure, and the development of a climate conducive to organizational change. Overall, the analysis suggests that in the electronics industry there exists an extremely high degree of environmental complexity and turbulence. This serves to shape the strategic, technical and social structures that are developed to match this complexity, examples of which are niche marketing, flexible manufacturing and employee harmonization.

Technical efficiency determinants within a dual banking system:a DEA-bootstrap approach

The purpose of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of the efficiency of Islamic and conventional banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. In this study, we explain inefficiencies obtained by introducing firm-specific as well as macroeconomic variables. Our findings indicate that during the eight years of study, conventional banks largely outperform Islamic banks with an average technical efficiency score of 81% compared to 95.57%. However, it is clear that since 2008, efficiency of conventional banks was in a downward trend while the efficiency of their Islamic counterparts was in an upward trend since 2009. This indicates that Islamic banks have succeeded to maintain a level of efficiency during the subprime crisis period. Finally, for the whole sample, the analysis demonstrates the strong link of macroeconomic indicators with efficiency for GCC banks. Surprisingly, we have not found any significant relationship in the case of Islamic banks.

A piacorientáció hatása a vállalati versenyképességre = The Impact of Market Orientation on Competitiveness

A tanulmány a piacorientáció és a versenyképesség összefüggését elemzi egy átfogóbb koncepcionális modell keretében, amely a piacorientáció szervezeti előzményeire, a piacorientáció egyes dimenziói és a vállalati teljesítmény közötti kapcsolatra, valamint a környezetből származó bizonytalanság moderáló hatásaira fókuszál. Ahhoz, hogy növeljük a tanulmány érvényességét, az elemzés során olyan változókat kontrolláltunk, amelyekről úgy véltük, hogy a piacorientáció mellett szintén befolyásolhatják a vállalatok versenyképességét, mint például a vállalati stratégia, illetve néhány releváns vállalati jellemző. Az eredmények alapján megállapíthatjuk, hogy a piacorientáció pozitív vagy semleges hatással van a vállalati versenyképesség különböző indikátoraira. Kutatásunk tehát nem támasztotta alá egyes, a válságidőszakokban készült tanulmányok következtetéseit, amely szerint gazdasági válság időszakában a piacorientáció gátolja a vállalatokat abban, hogy megfelelően reagáljanak a környezetben bekövetkezett változásokra. A piacorientáció eltérő dimenzióinak szerepe ugyanakkor átértékelődik a környezetből fakadó bizonytalanság egyes típusainak eltérő mértékű erősödésével. ----- Abstract: The study investigates the association between market orientation and corporate competitiveness in frame of a wider conceptual model that focuses on the organisational antecedents of market orientation, the relationship between the dimensions of market orientation and corporate performance and the moderating role of environmental uncertainty. To increase the validity of our study, we controlled other variables that had also been expected to influence competitiveness such as corporate strategy and some relevant characteristics of companies. Based on the results we can conclude that the effects of market orientation on the different indicators of competitiveness are either positive or neutral. Our research did not support the conclusions of previous studies which stated that in times of economic crisis market orientation inhibits companies to react to the changes of the environment in an appropriate way. The importance of the dimensions of market orientation however can change due to the diverse extent to which the different kinds of environmental uncertainty intensify.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

A comprehensive study of bankruptcy prediction: Accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure

Bankruptcy prediction has been a fruitful area of research. Univariate analysis and discriminant analysis were the first methodologies used. While they perform relatively well at correctly classifying bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms, their predictive ability has come into question over time. Univariate analysis lacks the big picture that financial distress entails. Multivariate discriminant analysis requires stringent assumptions that are violated when dealing with accounting ratios and market variables. This has led to the use of more complex models such as neural networks. While the accuracy of the predictions has improved with the use of more technical models, there is still an important point missing. Accounting ratios are the usual discriminating variables used in bankruptcy prediction. However, accounting ratios are backward-looking variables. At best, they are a current snapshot of the firm. Market variables are forward-looking variables. They are determined by discounting future outcomes. Microstructure variables, such as the bid-ask spread, also contain important information. Insiders are privy to more information that the retail investor, so if any financial distress is looming, the insiders should know before the general public. Therefore, any model in bankruptcy prediction should include market and microstructure variables. That is the focus of this dissertation. The traditional models and the newer, more technical models were tested and compared to the previous literature by employing accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure variables. Our findings suggest that the more technical models are preferable, and that a mix of accounting and market variables are best at correctly classifying and predicting bankrupt firms. Multi-layer perceptron appears to be the most accurate model following the results. The set of best discriminating variables includes price, standard deviation of price, the bid-ask spread, net income to sale, working capital to total assets, and current liabilities to total assets.

The Food Service Industry Environment: Market Volatility Analysis

In their dialogue entitled - The Food Service Industry Environment: Market Volatility Analysis - by Alex F. De Noble, Assistant Professor of Management, San Diego State University and Michael D. Olsen, Associate Professor and Director, Division of Hotel, Restaurant & Institutional Management at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, De Noble and Olson preface the discussion by saying: “Hospitality executives, as a whole, do not believe they exist in a volatile environment and spend little time or effort in assessing how current and future activity in the environment will affect their success or failure. The authors highlight potential differences that may exist between executives' perceptions and objective indicators of environmental volatility within the hospitality industry and suggest that executives change these perceptions by incorporating the assumption of a much more dynamic environment into their future strategic planning efforts. Objective, empirical evidence of the dynamic nature of the hospitality environment is presented and compared to several studies pertaining to environmental perceptions of the industry.” That weighty thesis statement presumes that hospitality executives/managers do not fully comprehend the environment in which they operate. The authors provide a contrast, which conventional wisdom would seem to support and satisfy. “Broadly speaking, the operating environment of an organization is represented by its task domain,” say the authors. “This task domain consists of such elements as a firm's customers, suppliers, competitors, and regulatory groups.” These are dynamic actors and the underpinnings of change, say the authors by way of citation. “The most difficult aspect for management in this regard tends to be the development of a proper definition of the environment of their particular firm. Being able to precisely define who the customers, competitors, suppliers, and regulatory groups are within the environment of the firm is no easy task, yet is imperative if proper planning is to occur,” De Noble and Olson further contribute to support their thesis statement. The article is bloated, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing, with tables both survey and empirically driven, to illustrate market volatility. One such table is the Bates and Eldredge outline; Table-6 in the article. “This comprehensive outline…should prove to be useful to most executives in expanding their perception of the environment of their firm,” say De Noble and Olson. “It is, however, only a suggested outline,” they advise. “…risk should be incorporated into every investment decision, especially in a volatile environment,” say the authors. De Noble and Olson close with an intriguing formula to gauge volatility in an environment.