900 resultados para system dynamics analysis


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Cyclones, which develop over the western Mediterranean and move northeastward are a major source of extreme weather and known to be responsible for heavy precipitation over the northern side of the Alpine range and Central Europe. As the relevant processes triggering these so-called Vb events and their impact on extreme precipitation are not yet fully understood, this study focuses on gaining insight into the dynamics of past events. For this, a cyclone detection and tracking tool is applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2013) to identify prominent Vb situations. Precipitation in the ERA-Interim and the E-OBS data sets is used to evaluate case-to-case precipitation amounts and to assess consistency between the two data sets. Both data sets exhibit high variability in precipitation amounts among different Vb events. While only 23 % of all Vb events are associated with extreme precipitation, around 15 % of all extreme precipitation days (99 percentile) over the northern Alpine region and Central Europe are induced by Vb events, although Vb cyclones are rare events (2.3 per year). To obtain a better understanding of the variability within Vb events, the analysis of the 10 heaviest and lowest precipitation Vb events reveals noticeable differences in the state of the atmosphere. These differences are most pronounced in the geopotential height and potential vorticity field, indicating a much stronger cyclone for heavy precipitation events. The related differences in wind direction are responsible for the moisture transport around the Alps and the orographical lifting along the northern slopes of the Alps. These effects are the main reasons for a disastrous outcome of Vb events, and consequently are absent in the Vb events associated with low precipitation. Hence, our results point out that heavy precipitation related to Vb events is mainly related to large-scale dynamics rather than to thermodynamic processes.

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Although the climate development over the Holocene in the Northern Hemisphere is well known, palaeolimnological climate reconstructions reveal spatiotemporal variability in northern Eurasia. Here we present a multi-proxy study from north-eastern Siberia combining sediment geochemistry, and diatom and pollen data from lake-sediment cores covering the last 38,000 cal. years. Our results show major changes in pyrite content and fragilarioid diatom species distributions, indicating prolonged seasonal lake-ice cover between ~13,500 and ~8,900 cal. years BP and possibly during the 8,200 cal. years BP cold event. A pollen-based climate reconstruction generated a mean July temperature of 17.8°C during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) between ~8,900 and ~4,500 cal. years BP. Naviculoid diatoms appear in the late Holocene indicating a shortening of the seasonal ice cover that continues today. Our results reveal a strong correlation between the applied terrestrial and aquatic indicators and natural seasonal climate dynamics in the Holocene. Planktonic diatoms show a strong response to changes in the lake ecosystem due to recent climate warming in the Anthropocene. We assess other palaeolimnological studies to infer the spatiotemporal pattern of the HTM and affirm that the timing of its onset, a difference of up to 3,000 years from north to south, can be well explained by climatic teleconnections. The westerlies brought cold air to this part of Siberia until the Laurentide ice-sheet vanished 7,000 years ago. The apparent delayed ending of the HTM in the central Siberian record can be ascribed to the exceedance of ecological thresholds trailing behind increases in winter temperatures and decreases in contrast in insolation between seasons during the mid to late Holocene as well as lacking differentiation between summer and winter trends in paleolimnological reconstructions.

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A sensitivity analysis has been performed to assess the influence of the elastic properties of railway vehicle suspensions on the vehicle dynamic behaviour. To do this, 144 dynamic simulations were performed modifying, one at a time, the stiffness and damping coefficients, of the primary and secondary suspensions. Three values were assigned to each parameter, corresponding to the percentiles 10, 50 and 90 of a data set stored in a database of railway vehicles.After processing the results of these simulations, the analyzed parameters were sorted by increasing influence. It was also found which of these parameters could be estimated with a lesser degree of accuracy in future simulations without appreciably affecting the simulation results. In general terms, it was concluded that the highest influences were found for the longitudinal stiffness and the lateral stiffness of the primary suspension, and the lowest influences for the vertical stiffness and the vertical damping of the primary suspension, with the parameters of the secondary suspension showing intermediate influences between them.

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En términos generales, m-salud puede definirse como el conjunto de sistemas de información, sensores médicos y tecnologías de comunicaciones móviles para el cuidado de la salud. La creciente disponibilidad, miniaturización, comportamiento, velocidades de transmisión de datos cada vez mayores y la esperada convergencia de tecnologías de red y comunicaciones inalámbricas en torno a los sistemas de salud móviles están acelerando el despliegue de estos sistemas y la provisión de servicios de m-salud, como por ejemplo, la teleasistencia móvil. El concepto emergente de m-salud conlleva retos importantes (estudios técnicos, análisis, modelado de la provisión de servicios, etc.) que hay que afrontar para impulsar la evolución de los sistemas y servicios de e-salud ofrecidos desde tecnologías de telecomunicación que utilizan acceso por cable y redes fijas, hacia configuraciones móviles e inalámbricas de última generación. En este trabajo se analizará primeramente el significado e implicaciones de m-salud y la situación en la que se encuentra; los retos a los que hay que enfrentarse para su implantación y provisión así como su tendencia. De los múltiples y diferentes servicios que se pueden proveer se ha identificado el servicio de Localización de Personas LoPe, lanzado por Cruz Roja en febrero de 2007, para teleasistencia móvil y que permite conocer en todo momento la ubicación de la persona que porta su dispositivo asociado. Orientado a personas con discapacidad, en situación de riesgo o dependencia por deterioro cognitivo, tiene como objetivo ayudarlas a recuperar su autonomía personal. La provisión de este servicio se modelará mediante dinámica de sistemas, ya que esta teoría se considera idónea para modelar sistemas complejos que evolucionan con el tiempo. El resultado final es un modelo que implementado a través de la herramienta Studio 8® de la compañía noruega Powersim Software AS nos ha permitido analizar y evaluar su comportamiento a lo largo del tiempo, además de permitirnos extraer conclusiones sobre el mismo y plantear futuras mejoras sobre el servicio. ABSTRACT. In general terms, m-health can be defined as “mobile computing, medical sensor, and communications technologies for health care.” The increased availability, miniaturization, performance, enhanced data rates, and the expected convergence of future wireless communication and network technologies around mobile health systems are accelerating the deployment of m-health systems and services, for instance, mobile telecare. The emerging concept of m-health involves significant challenges (technical studies, analysis, modeling of service provision, etc.) that must be tackled to drive the development of e-health services and systems offered by telecommunication technologies that use wired and fixed networks towards wireless and mobile new generation networks. Firstly, in this master’s thesis, the meaning and implications of m-health and its current situation are analyzed. This analysis also includes the challenges that must be tackled for the implementation and provision of m-health technologies and services and the m-health trends. Among the many different m-health services already delivered, the Localización de Personas LoPe service has been identified to work with it. This service, launched by Spanish Red Cross in February 2007, enables to locate people who carry the associated device. It’s aimed at people with disabilities, at risk or dependency due to cognitive impairment and helps them to recover their personal autonomy. The provision of this service will be modeled with system dynamics considering that this theory suits very well the modeling of complex systems which evolve over time. The final result is a system dynamics model of the service implemented with Studio 8® tool developed by Powersim Software AS, a Norwegian company. This model has allowed us to analyze and evaluate its behaviour over time, as well as to draw conclusions and to consider some future improvements in the service.

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El cálculo de cargas de aerogeneradores flotantes requiere herramientas de simulación en el dominio del tiempo que consideren todos los fenómenos que afectan al sistema, como la aerodinámica, la dinámica estructural, la hidrodinámica, las estrategias de control y la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo. Todos estos efectos están acoplados entre sí y se influyen mutuamente. Las herramientas integradas se utilizan para calcular las cargas extremas y de fatiga que son empleadas para dimensionar estructuralmente los diferentes componentes del aerogenerador. Por esta razón, un cálculo preciso de las cargas influye de manera importante en la optimización de los componentes y en el coste final del aerogenerador flotante. En particular, el sistema de fondeo tiene gran impacto en la dinámica global del sistema. Muchos códigos integrados para la simulación de aerogeneradores flotantes utilizan modelos simplificados que no consideran los efectos dinámicos de las líneas de fondeo. Una simulación precisa de las líneas de fondeo dentro de los modelos integrados puede resultar fundamental para obtener resultados fiables de la dinámica del sistema y de los niveles de cargas en los diferentes componentes. Sin embargo, el impacto que incluir la dinámica de los fondeos tiene en la simulación integrada y en las cargas todavía no ha sido cuantificada rigurosamente. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es el desarrollo de un modelo dinámico para la simulación de líneas de fondeo con precisión, validarlo con medidas en un tanque de ensayos e integrarlo en un código de simulación para aerogeneradores flotantes. Finalmente, esta herramienta, experimentalmente validada, es utilizada para cuantificar el impacto que un modelos dinámicos de líneas de fondeo tienen en la computación de las cargas de fatiga y extremas de aerogeneradores flotantes en comparación con un modelo cuasi-estático. Esta es una información muy útil para los futuros diseñadores a la hora de decidir qué modelo de líneas de fondeo es el adecuado, dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y de los resultados esperados. El código dinámico de líneas de fondeo desarrollado en esta investigación se basa en el método de los Elementos Finitos, utilizando en concreto un modelo ”Lumped Mass” para aumentar su eficiencia de computación. Los experimentos realizados para la validación del código se realizaron en el tanque del École Céntrale de Nantes (ECN), en Francia, y consistieron en sumergir una cadena con uno de sus extremos anclados en el fondo del tanque y excitar el extremo suspendido con movimientos armónicos de diferentes periodos. El código demostró su capacidad para predecir la tensión y los movimientos en diferentes posiciones a lo largo de la longitud de la línea con gran precisión. Los resultados indicaron la importancia de capturar la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo para la predicción de la tensión especialmente en movimientos de alta frecuencia. Finalmente, el código se utilizó en una exhaustiva evaluación del efecto que la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo tiene sobre las cargas extremas y de fatiga de diferentes conceptos de aerogeneradores flotantes. Las cargas se calcularon para tres tipologías de aerogenerador flotante (semisumergible, ”spar-buoy” y ”tension leg platform”) y se compararon con las cargas obtenidas utilizando un modelo cuasi-estático de líneas de fondeo. Se lanzaron y postprocesaron más de 20.000 casos de carga definidos por la norma IEC 61400-3 siguiendo todos los requerimientos que una entidad certificadora requeriría a un diseñador industrial de aerogeneradores flotantes. Los resultados mostraron que el impacto de la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo, tanto en las cargas de fatiga como en las extremas, se incrementa conforme se consideran elementos situados más cerca de la plataforma: las cargas en la pala y en el eje sólo son ligeramente modificadas por la dinámica de las líneas, las cargas en la base de la torre pueden cambiar significativamente dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y, finalmente, la tensión en las líneas de fondeo depende fuertemente de la dinámica de las líneas, tanto en fatiga como en extremas, en todos los conceptos de plataforma que se han evaluado. ABSTRACT The load calculation of floating offshore wind turbine requires time-domain simulation tools taking into account all the phenomena that affect the system such as aerodynamics, structural dynamics, hydrodynamics, control actions and the mooring lines dynamics. These effects present couplings and are mutually influenced. The results provided by integrated simulation tools are used to compute the fatigue and ultimate loads needed for the structural design of the different components of the wind turbine. For this reason, their accuracy has an important influence on the optimization of the components and the final cost of the floating wind turbine. In particular, the mooring system greatly affects the global dynamics of the floater. Many integrated codes for the simulation of floating wind turbines use simplified approaches that do not consider the mooring line dynamics. An accurate simulation of the mooring system within the integrated codes can be fundamental to obtain reliable results of the system dynamics and the loads. The impact of taking into account the mooring line dynamics in the integrated simulation still has not been thoroughly quantified. The main objective of this research consists on the development of an accurate dynamic model for the simulation of mooring lines, validate it against wave tank tests and then integrate it in a simulation code for floating wind turbines. This experimentally validated tool is finally used to quantify the impact that dynamic mooring models have on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads of floating wind turbines in comparison with quasi-static tools. This information will be very useful for future designers to decide which mooring model is adequate depending on the platform type and the expected results. The dynamic mooring lines code developed in this research is based in the Finite Element Method and is oriented to the achievement of a computationally efficient code, selecting a Lumped Mass approach. The experimental tests performed for the validation of the code were carried out at the `Ecole Centrale de Nantes (ECN) wave tank in France, consisting of a chain submerged into a water basin, anchored at the bottom of the basin, where the suspension point of the chain was excited with harmonic motions of different periods. The code showed its ability to predict the tension and the motions at several positions along the length of the line with high accuracy. The results demonstrated the importance of capturing the evolution of the mooring dynamics for the prediction of the line tension, especially for the high frequency motions. Finally, the code was used for an extensive assessment of the effect of mooring dynamics on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads for different floating wind turbines. The loads were computed for three platforms topologies (semisubmersible, spar-buoy and tension leg platform) and compared with the loads provided using a quasi-static mooring model. More than 20,000 load cases were launched and postprocessed following the IEC 61400-3 guideline and fulfilling the conditions that a certification entity would require to an offshore wind turbine designer. The results showed that the impact of mooring dynamics in both fatigue and ultimate loads increases as elements located closer to the platform are evaluated; the blade and the shaft loads are only slightly modified by the mooring dynamics in all the platform designs, the tower base loads can be significantly affected depending on the platform concept and the mooring lines tension strongly depends on the lines dynamics both in fatigue and extreme loads in all the platform concepts evaluated.

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This work was financially supported by the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), (2851ERA01J). FT and RPR were supported by FACCE MACSUR (3200009600) through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM). EC, HE and EL were supported by The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (220-2007-1218) and by the strategic funding ‘Soil-Water-Landscape’ from the faculty of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) and thank professor P-E Jansson (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm) for support. JC, HR and DW thank the INRA ACCAF metaprogramm for funding and Eric Casellas from UR MIAT INRA for support. CB was funded by the Helmholtz project “REKLIM—Regional Climate Change”. CK was funded by the HGF Alliance “Remote Sensing and Earth System Dynamics” (EDA). FH was funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG) under the Grant FOR1695. FE and SS acknowledge support by the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5-1). HH, GZ, SS, TG and FE thank Andreas Enders and Gunther Krauss (INRES, University of Bonn) for support. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

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For many years, humans and machines have shared the same physical space. To facilitate their interaction with humans, their social integration and for more rational behavior has been sought that the robots demonstrate human-like behavior. For this it is necessary to understand how human behavior is generated, discuss what tasks are performed and how relate to themselves, for subsequent implementation in robots. In this paper, we propose a model of competencies based on human neuroregulator system for analysis and decomposition of behavior into functional modules. Using this model allow separate and locate the tasks to be implemented in a robot that displays human-like behavior. As an example, we show the application of model to the autonomous movement behavior on unfamiliar environments and its implementation in various simulated and real robots with different physical configurations and physical devices of different nature. The main result of this work has been to build a model of competencies that is being used to build robotic systems capable of displaying behaviors similar to humans and consider the specific characteristics of robots.

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Humans and machines have shared the same physical space for many years. To share the same space, we want the robots to behave like human beings. This will facilitate their social integration, their interaction with humans and create an intelligent behavior. To achieve this goal, we need to understand how human behavior is generated, analyze tasks running our nerves and how they relate to them. Then and only then can we implement these mechanisms in robotic beings. In this study, we propose a model of competencies based on human neuroregulator system for analysis and decomposition of behavior into functional modules. Using this model allow separate and locate the tasks to be implemented in a robot that displays human-like behavior. As an example, we show the application of model to the autonomous movement behavior on unfamiliar environments and its implementation in various simulated and real robots with different physical configurations and physical devices of different nature. The main result of this study has been to build a model of competencies that is being used to build robotic systems capable of displaying behaviors similar to humans and consider the specific characteristics of robots.

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We present experimental results on the measurement of fidelity decay under contrasting system dynamics using a nuclear magnetic resonance quantum information processor. The measurements were performed by implementing a scalable circuit in the model of deterministic quantum computation with only one quantum bit. The results show measurable differences between regular and complex behavior and for complex dynamics are faithful to the expected theoretical decay rate. Moreover, we illustrate how the experimental method can be seen as an efficient way for either extracting coarse-grained information about the dynamics of a large system or measuring the decoherence rate from engineered environments.

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Time delay is an important aspect in the modelling of genetic regulation due to slow biochemical reactions such as gene transcription and translation, and protein diffusion between the cytosol and nucleus. In this paper we introduce a general mathematical formalism via stochastic delay differential equations for describing time delays in genetic regulatory networks. Based on recent developments with the delay stochastic simulation algorithm, the delay chemical masterequation and the delay reaction rate equation are developed for describing biological reactions with time delay, which leads to stochastic delay differential equations derived from the Langevin approach. Two simple genetic regulatory networks are used to study the impact of' intrinsic noise on the system dynamics where there are delays. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Formal methods have significant benefits for developing safety critical systems, in that they allow for correctness proofs, model checking safety and liveness properties, deadlock checking, etc. However, formal methods do not scale very well and demand specialist skills, when developing real-world systems. For these reasons, development and analysis of large-scale safety critical systems will require effective integration of formal and informal methods. In this paper, we use such an integrative approach to automate Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), a widely used system safety analysis technique, using a high-level graphical modelling notation (Behavior Trees) and model checking. We inject component failure modes into the Behavior Trees and translate the resulting Behavior Trees to SAL code. This enables us to model check if the system in the presence of these faults satisfies its safety properties, specified by temporal logic formulas. The benefit of this process is tool support that automates the tedious and error-prone aspects of FMEA.

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We present the first experimental observation of several bifurcations in a controllable non-linear Hamiltonian system. Dynamics of cold atoms are used to test predictions of non-linear, non-dissipative Hamiltonian dynamics.

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The development of an information system in Caribbean public sector organisations is usually seen as a matter of installing hardware and software according to a directive from senior management, without much planning. This causes huge investment in procuring hardware and software without improving overall system performance. Increasingly, Caribbean organisations are looking for assurances on information system performance before making investment decisions not only to satisfy the funding agencies, but also to be competitive in this dynamic and global business world. This study demonstrates an information system planning approach using a process-reengineering framework. Firstly, the stakeholders for the business functions are identified along with their relationships and requirements. Secondly, process reengineering is carried out to develop the system requirements. Accordingly, information technology is selected through detailed system requirement analysis. Thirdly, cost-benefit analysis, identification of critical success factors and risk analysis are carried out to strengthen the selection. The entire methodology has been demonstrated through an information system project in the Barbados drug service, a public sector organisation in the Caribbean.

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This special issue of the Journal of the Operational Research Society is dedicated to papers on the related subjects of knowledge management and intellectual capital. These subjects continue to generate considerable interest amongst both practitioners and academics. This issue demonstrates that operational researchers have many contributions to offer to the area, especially by bringing multi-disciplinary, integrated and holistic perspectives. The papers included are both theoretical as well as practical, and include a number of case studies showing how knowledge management has been implemented in practice that may assist other organisations in their search for a better means of managing what is now recognised as a core organisational activity. It has been accepted by a growing number of organisations that the precise handling of information and knowledge is a significant factor in facilitating their success but that there is a challenge in how to implement a strategy and processes for this handling. It is here, in the particular area of knowledge process handling that we can see the contributions of operational researchers most clearly as is illustrated in the papers included in this journal edition. The issue comprises nine papers, contributed by authors based in eight different countries on five continents. Lind and Seigerroth describe an approach that they call team-based reconstruction, intended to help articulate knowledge in a particular organisational. context. They illustrate the use of this approach with three case studies, two in manufacturing and one in public sector health care. Different ways of carrying out reconstruction are analysed, and the benefits of team-based reconstruction are established. Edwards and Kidd, and Connell, Powell and Klein both concentrate on knowledge transfer. Edwards and Kidd discuss the issues involved in transferring knowledge across frontières (borders) of various kinds, from those borders within organisations to those between countries. They present two examples, one in distribution and the other in manufacturing. They conclude that trust and culture both play an important part in facilitating such transfers, that IT should be kept in a supporting role in knowledge management projects, and that a staged approach to this IT support may be the most effective. Connell, Powell and Klein consider the oft-quoted distinction between explicit and tacit knowledge, and argue that such a distinction is sometimes unhelpful. They suggest that knowledge should rather be regarded as a holistic systemic property. The consequences of this for knowledge transfer are examined, with a particular emphasis on what this might mean for the practice of OR Their view of OR in the context of knowledge management very much echoes Lind and Seigerroth's focus on knowledge for human action. This is an interesting convergence of views given that, broadly speaking, one set of authors comes from within the OR community, and the other from outside it. Hafeez and Abdelmeguid present the nearest to a 'hard' OR contribution of the papers in this special issue. In their paper they construct and use system dynamics models to investigate alternative ways in which an organisation might close a knowledge gap or skills gap. The methods they use have the potential to be generalised to any other quantifiable aspects of intellectual capital. The contribution by Revilla, Sarkis and Modrego is also at the 'hard' end of the spectrum. They evaluate the performance of public–private research collaborations in Spain, using an approach based on data envelopment analysis. They found that larger organisations tended to perform relatively better than smaller ones, even though the approach used takes into account scale effects. Perhaps more interesting was that many factors that might have been thought relevant, such as the organisation's existing knowledge base or how widely applicable the results of the project would be, had no significant effect on the performance. It may be that how well the partnership between the collaborators works (not a factor it was possible to take into account in this study) is more important than most other factors. Mak and Ramaprasad introduce the concept of a knowledge supply network. This builds on existing ideas of supply chain management, but also integrates the design chain and the marketing chain, to address all the intellectual property connected with the network as a whole. The authors regard the knowledge supply network as the natural focus for considering knowledge management issues. They propose seven criteria for evaluating knowledge supply network architecture, and illustrate their argument with an example from the electronics industry—integrated circuit design and fabrication. In the paper by Hasan and Crawford, their interest lies in the holistic approach to knowledge management. They demonstrate their argument—that there is no simple IT solution for organisational knowledge management efforts—through two case study investigations. These case studies, in Australian universities, are investigated through cultural historical activity theory, which focuses the study on the activities that are carried out by people in support of their interpretations of their role, the opportunities available and the organisation's purpose. Human activities, it is argued, are mediated by the available tools, including IT and IS and in this particular context, KMS. It is this argument that places the available technology into the knowledge activity process and permits the future design of KMS to be improved through the lessons learnt by studying these knowledge activity systems in practice. Wijnhoven concentrates on knowledge management at the operational level of the organisation. He is concerned with studying the transformation of certain inputs to outputs—the operations function—and the consequent realisation of organisational goals via the management of these operations. He argues that the inputs and outputs of this process in the context of knowledge management are different types of knowledge and names the operation method the knowledge logistics. The method of transformation he calls learning. This theoretical paper discusses the operational management of four types of knowledge objects—explicit understanding; information; skills; and norms and values; and shows how through the proposed framework learning can transfer these objects to clients in a logistical process without a major transformation in content. Millie Kwan continues this theme with a paper about process-oriented knowledge management. In her case study she discusses an implementation of knowledge management where the knowledge is centred around an organisational process and the mission, rationale and objectives of the process define the scope of the project. In her case they are concerned with the effective use of real estate (property and buildings) within a Fortune 100 company. In order to manage the knowledge about this property and the process by which the best 'deal' for internal customers and the overall company was reached, a KMS was devised. She argues that process knowledge is a source of core competence and thus needs to be strategically managed. Finally, you may also wish to read a related paper originally submitted for this Special Issue, 'Customer knowledge management' by Garcia-Murillo and Annabi, which was published in the August 2002 issue of the Journal of the Operational Research Society, 53(8), 875–884.