Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality : lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.

Role demands and work-family balance experience in Malaysia : the different moderating effects of collectivism and gender role identity among diverse ethnic groups

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the influence of ethnic cultural values on the relationship of role demands and the work-family balance (WFB) experience. Past studies have found that the demands from work and family roles have a different impact on the work-family experience in people of different ethnicity. Researchers attribute these results to the cultural differences across the groups. However, there has been no empirical support for these assumptions because most past studies did not explicitly measure the cultural dimension in their design. Therefore, although studies have found ethnic differences in work-family experience, as cultural variables were not measured, it cannot be determined whether these differences were due to the differing ethnic groups’ cultural styles. The present thesis is set up to address this limitation in the literature, employing the Malay and Chinese ethnic groups in Malaysia as the study samples. The investigation consisted of pilot interviews and two survey studies. The interviews were carried out to establish the perception of WFB by target participants of a non-western nation. The first survey served to identify whether the Malay and Chinese ethnic groups residing under the same economic and social systems vary in their perceptions of work and family roles. The second survey tests the research model empirically, that is, whether cultural values moderate the relationship between role demands and WFB and if these moderation effects vary across ethnic groups. From the interviews, the results indicated that work-family experience is not a universal experience, but is partly culture-specific. Specifically, in the case of Malaysia, WFB is very much observed from the role obligation perspective. In particular, balance is perceived when work duties and household affairs are both adequately fulfilled. On the other hand, the conceptualisation of WFB in terms of role satisfaction and role interference also emerged in the interviews, suggesting the universality of these constructs across cultures. The findings from Survey One indicated that participants of different ethnicities in this study do not differ greatly in their perceptions regarding their participation in work and family roles. Generally, these participants revealed the less traditional attitudes towards women’s participation in work and family roles. However, variations were observed between the two groups in terms of reasons for working, spouses’ preferences towards their employment, and the extent to which their work role is perceived to impede their normative role performance in the household. Despite these differences, the Malay and Chinese ethnic groups showed more similarities than differences in their perceptions of work and family. The findings from Survey Two, which tested the research model, produced mixed results. On the whole, the results showed that the cultural dimensions examined in this study (i.e. collectivism, work identity and family identity) did influence the relationship between role demands and WFB experience, thus providing empirical evidence for the assumption in the literature that the relationship between role demand and work-family experience is moderated by cultural values. Most importantly, support was found for the proposition that these moderation effects vary between the Malay and Chinese ethnic groups. Moreover, this study also found evidence that Malays and Chinese differ significantly on collectivism and work identity cultural dimensions where Malays are found to be more collectivist than the Chinese, while work identity is stronger in the Chinese than in the Malays. There is no difference in the levels of family identity between the two groups. Of all the three moderators, work identity was deemed the most important because many of the supported hypotheses pertained to the work identity moderating effects. In contrast, family identity does not seem to have much moderating influence on role demand-WFB relationships, while the results for the collectivism moderator are mixed. As such, although not conclusive, it can be deduced that variations in the effects of role demand on work-family experience across ethnicity are a result of the groups’ cultural differences, thereby supporting the assumption in the literature.

Time course of temperature effects on cardiovascular mortality in Brisbane, Australia

Objective To quantify the lagged effects of mean temperature on deaths from cardiovascular diseases in Brisbane, Australia. Design Polynomial distributed lag models were used to assess the percentage increase in mortality up to 30 days associated with an increase (or decrease) of 1°C above (or below) the threshold temperature. Setting Brisbane, Australia. Patients 22 805 cardiovascular deaths registered between 1996 and 2004. Main outcome measures Deaths from cardiovascular diseases. Results The results show a longer lagged effect in cold days and a shorter lagged effect in hot days. For the hot effect, a statistically significant association was observed only for lag 0–1 days. The percentage increase in mortality was found to be 3.7% (95% CI 0.4% to 7.1%) for people aged ≥65 years and 3.5% (95% CI 0.4% to 6.7%) for all ages associated with an increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature of 24°C. For the cold effect, a significant effect of temperature was found for 10–15 lag days. The percentage estimates for older people and all ages were 3.1% (95% CI 0.7% to 5.7%) and 2.8% (95% CI 0.5% to 5.1%), respectively, with a decrease of 1°C below the threshold temperature of 24°C. Conclusions The lagged effects lasted longer for cold temperatures but were apparently shorter for hot temperatures. There was no substantial difference in the lag effect of temperature on mortality between all ages and those aged ≥65 years in Brisbane, Australia.

Probability distributed time delays: integrating spatial effects into temporal models

Background In order to provide insights into the complex biochemical processes inside a cell, modelling approaches must find a balance between achieving an adequate representation of the physical phenomena and keeping the associated computational cost within reasonable limits. This issue is particularly stressed when spatial inhomogeneities have a significant effect on system's behaviour. In such cases, a spatially-resolved stochastic method can better portray the biological reality, but the corresponding computer simulations can in turn be prohibitively expensive. Results We present a method that incorporates spatial information by means of tailored, probability distributed time-delays. These distributions can be directly obtained by single in silico or a suitable set of in vitro experiments and are subsequently fed into a delay stochastic simulation algorithm (DSSA), achieving a good compromise between computational costs and a much more accurate representation of spatial processes such as molecular diffusion and translocation between cell compartments. Additionally, we present a novel alternative approach based on delay differential equations (DDE) that can be used in scenarios of high molecular concentrations and low noise propagation. Conclusions Our proposed methodologies accurately capture and incorporate certain spatial processes into temporal stochastic and deterministic simulations, increasing their accuracy at low computational costs. This is of particular importance given that time spans of cellular processes are generally larger (possibly by several orders of magnitude) than those achievable by current spatially-resolved stochastic simulators. Hence, our methodology allows users to explore cellular scenarios under the effects of diffusion and stochasticity in time spans that were, until now, simply unfeasible. Our methodologies are supported by theoretical considerations on the different modelling regimes, i.e. spatial vs. delay-temporal, as indicated by the corresponding Master Equations and presented elsewhere.