Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Involvement of circulating CEA in liver metastases from colorectal cancers re-examined in a new experimental model.

Both experimental and clinical data show evidence of a correlation between elevated blood levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and the development of liver metastases from colorectal carcinomas. However, a cause-effect relationship between these two observations has not been demonstrated. For this reason, we developed a new experimental model to evaluate the possible role of circulating CEA in the facilitation of liver metastases. A CEA-negative subclone from the human colon carcinoma cell line CO115 was transfected either with CEA-cDNA truncated at its 3' end by the deletion of 78 base pairs leading to the synthesis of a secreted form of CEA or with a full-length CEA-cDNA leading to the synthesis of the entire CEA molecule linked to the cell surface by a GPI anchor. Transfectants were selected either for their high CEA secretion (clone CO115-2C2 secreting up to 13 microg CEA per 10(6) cells within 72 h) or for their high CEA membrane expression (clone CO115-5F12 expressing up to 1 x 10(6) CEA molecules per cell). When grafted subcutaneously, CO115-2C2 cells gave rise to circulating CEA levels that were directly related to the tumour volume (from 100 to 1000 ng ml(-1) for tumours ranging from 100 to 1000 mm3), whereas no circulating CEA was detectable in CO115 and CO115-5F12 tumour-bearing mice. Three series of nude mice bearing a subcutaneous xenograft from either clone CO115-2C2 or the CO115-5F12 transfectant, or an untransfected CO115 xenograft, were further challenged for induction of experimental liver metastases by intrasplenic injection of three different CEA-expressing human colorectal carcinoma cell lines (LoVo, LS174T or CO112). The number and size of the liver metastases were shown to be independent of the circulating CEA levels induced by the subcutaneous CEA secreting clone (CO115-2C2), but they were directly related to the metastatic properties of the intrasplenically injected tumour cells.

Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Experimental evaluation of an electromechanical artificial urinary sphincter in an animal model.

WHAT'S KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT? AND WHAT DOES THE STUDY ADD?: The AMS 800 urinary control system is the gold standard for the treatment of urinary incontinence due to sphincter insufficiency. Despite excellent functional outcome and latest technological improvements, the revision rate remains significant. To overcome the shortcomings of the current device, we developed a modern electromechanical artificial urinary sphincter. The results demonstrated that this new sphincter is effective and well tolerated up to 3 months. This preliminary study represents a first step in the clinical application of novel technologies and an alternative compression mechanism to the urethra. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness in continence achievement of a new electromechanical artificial urinary sphincter (emAUS) in an animal model. To assess urethral response and animal general response to short-term and mid-term activation of the emAUS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The principle of the emAUS is electromechanical induction of alternating compression of successive segments of the urethra by a series of cuffs activated by artificial muscles. Between February 2009 and May 2010 the emAUS was implanted in 17 sheep divided into three groups. The first phase aimed to measure bladder leak point pressure during the activation of the device. The second and third phases aimed to assess tissue response to the presence of the device after 2-9 weeks and after 3 months respectively. Histopathological and immunohistochemistry evaluation of the urethra was performed. RESULTS: Bladder leak point pressure was measured at levels between 1091 ± 30.6 cmH2 O and 1244.1 ± 99 cmH2 O (mean ± standard deviation) depending on the number of cuffs used. At gross examination, the explanted urethra showed no sign of infection, atrophy or stricture. On microscopic examination no significant difference in structure was found between urethral structure surrounded by a cuff and control urethra. In the peripheral tissues, the implanted material elicited a chronic foreign body reaction. Apart from one case, specimens did not show significant presence of lymphocytes, polymorphonuclear leucocytes, necrosis or cell degeneration. Immunohistochemistry confirmed the absence of macrophages in the samples. CONCLUSIONS: This animal study shows that the emAUS can provide continence. This new electronic controlled sequential alternating compression mechanism can avoid damage to urethral vascularity, at least up to 3 months after implantation. After this positive proof of concept, long-term studies are needed before clinical application could be considered.

Including the workload effect in the parallel program signature

Performance prediction and application behavior modeling have been the subject of exten- sive research that aim to estimate applications performance with an acceptable precision. A novel approach to predict the performance of parallel applications is based in the con- cept of Parallel Application Signatures that consists in extract an application most relevant parts (phases) and the number of times they repeat (weights). Executing these phases in a target machine and multiplying its exeuction time by its weight an estimation of the application total execution time can be made. One of the problems is that the performance of an application depends on the program workload. Every type of workload affects differently how an application performs in a given system and so affects the signature execution time. Since the workloads used in most scientific parallel applications have dimensions and data ranges well known and the behavior of these applications are mostly deterministic, a model of how the programs workload affect its performance can be obtained. We create a new methodology to model how a program’s workload affect the parallel application signature. Using regression analysis we are able to generalize each phase time execution and weight function to predict an application performance in a target system for any type of workload within predefined range. We validate our methodology using a synthetic program, benchmarks applications and well known real scientific applications.

Compositional Time Series: An Application

The composition of the labour force is an important economic factor for a country.Often the changes in proportions of different groups are of interest.I this paper we study a monthly compositional time series from the Swedish LabourForce Survey from 1994 to 2005. Three models are studied: the ILR-transformed series,the ILR-transformation of the compositional differenced series of order 1, and the ILRtransformationof the compositional differenced series of order 12. For each of thethree models a VAR-model is fitted based on the data 1994-2003. We predict the timeseries 15 steps ahead and calculate 95 % prediction regions. The predictions of thethree models are compared with actual values using MAD and MSE and the predictionregions are compared graphically in a ternary time series plot.We conclude that the first, and simplest, model possesses the best predictive power ofthe three models

A genealogical conceptual model using ontologies

Roughly fifteen years ago, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints published a new proposed standard file format. They call it GEDCOM. It was designed to allow different genealogy programs to exchange data.Five years later, in may 2000, appeared the GENTECH Data Modeling Project, with the support of the Federation of Genealogical Societies (FGS) and other American genealogical societies. They attempted to define a genealogical logic data model to facilitate data exchange between different genealogical programs. Although genealogists deal with an enormous variety of data sources, one of the central concepts of this data model was that all genealogical data could be broken down into a series of short, formal genealogical statements. It was something more versatile than only export/import data records on a predefined fields. This project was finally absorbed in 2004 by the National Genealogical Society (NGS).Despite being a genealogical reference in many applications, these models have serious drawbacks to adapt to different cultural and social environments. At the present time we have no formal proposal for a recognized standard to represent the family domain.Here we propose an alternative conceptual model, largely inherited from aforementioned models. The design is intended to overcome their limitations. However, its major innovation lies in applying the ontological paradigm when modeling statements and entities.

The neurobiological basis of prefrontal cortex impairment in the phencyclidine model of schizophrenia : convergent reduction of synaptic glutamate release, energy metabolism and cognitive performance

RÉSUMÉ : Le traitement répété à la phencyclidine (PCP), un bloqueur du récepteur NMDA (NMDAR), reproduit chez les rongeurs une partie de la symptomatologie typique de la schizophrénie. Le blocage prolongé du NMDAR par la PCP mime une hypofunction du NMDAR, une des principales altérations supposées exister dans les cerveaux des patients schizophréniques. Le but de notre étude était d'examiner les conséquences neurochimiques, métaboliques et fonctionnelles du traitement répété à la phencyclidine in vivo, au niveau du cortex préfrontal (cpf), une région cérébrale qui joue un rôle dans les déficits cognitifs observés chez les patients schizophréniques. Pour répondre à cette question, les rats ou les souris ont reçu chaque jour une injection soit de PCP (5 mg/kg), soit de solution saline, pendant 7 ou 14 jours. Les animaux ont ensuite été sacrifiés au moins 24 heures après le dernier traitement. Des tranches aiguës du cpf ont été préparées rapidement, puis stimulées avec une concentration élevée de KCI, de manière à induire une libération de glutamate à partir des terminaisons synaptiques excitatrices. Les résultats montrent que les tranches du cpf des animaux traités à la PCP ont libéré une quantité de glutamate significativement inférieure par rapport à celles des animaux contrôle. Ce déficit de libération a persisté 72 heures après la fin du traitement, tandis qu'il n'était pas observé dans le cortex visuel primaire, une autre région corticale. En outre, le traitement avec des antipsychotiques, l'halopéridol ou l'olanzapine, a supprimé le déficit induit par la PCP. Le même déficit de libération a été remarqué sur des synaptosomes obtenus à partir du cpf des animaux traités à la phenryclidine. Cette observation indique que la PCP induit une modification plastique adaptative du mécanisme qui contrôle la libération du glutamate dans les terminaisons synaptiques. Nous avons découvert que cette modification implique la sous-régulation d'un NMDAR présynaptique, qui serait doué d'un rôle d'autorécepteur stimulateur de la libération du glutamate. Grâce à des tests comportementaux conduits en parallèle et réalisés pour évaluer la fonctionnalité du cpf, nous avons observé chez les souris traitées à la PCP une flexibilité comportementale réduite lors d'un test de discrimination de stimuli visuels/tactiles. Le déficit cognitif était encore présent 4 jours après la dernière administration de PCP. La technique de l'autoradiographie quantitative du [14C]2-deoxyglucose a permis d'associer ce déficit à une réduction de l'activité métabolique cérébrale pendant le déroulement du test, particulièrement au niveau du cpf. Dans l'ensemble, nos résultats suggèrent que le blocage prolongé du NMDAR lors de l'administration répétée de PCP produit un déficit de libération du glutamate au niveau des terminaisons synaptiques excitatrices du cpf. Un tel déficit pourrait être provoqué par la sousrégulation d'un NMDAR présynaptique, qui aurait une fonction de stimulateur de libération; la transmission excitatrice du cpf s'en trouverait dans ce cas réduite. Ce résultat est en ligne avec l'activité métabolique et fonctionnelle réduite du cpf et l'observation de déficits cognitifs induits lors de l'administration de la PCP. ABSTRACT : Sub-chronic treatment with phencyclidine (PCP), an NMDA receptor (NMDAR) channel blocker, reproduces in rodents part of the symptomatology associated to schizophrenia in humans. Prolonged pharmacological blockade of NMDAR with PCP mimics NMDAR hypofunction, one of the main alterations thought to take place in the brains of schizophrenics. Our study was aimed at investigating the neurochemical, metabolic and behavioral consequences of repeated PCP administration in vivo, focusing on the functioning of the prefrontal cortex (pfc), a brain region highly relevant for the cognitive deficits observed in schizophrenic patients. Rats or mice received a daily administration of either PCP (5 mg/kg) or saline for 7 or 14 days. At least 24 hours after the last treatment the animals were sacrificed. Acute slices of the pfc were quickly prepared and challenged with high KCl to induce synaptic glutamate release. Pfc slices from PCP-treated animals released significantly less glutamate than slices from salinetreated animals. The deficit persisted 72 hours after the end of the treatment, while it was not observed in another cortical region: the primary visual cortex. Interestingly, treatment with antipsychotic drugs, either haloperidol or olanzapine, reverted the glutamate release defect induced by PCP treatment. The same release defect was observed in synaptosomes prepared from the pfc of PCP-treated animals, indicating that PCP induces a plastic adaptive change in the mechanism controlling glutamate release in the glutamatergic terminals. We discovered that such change most likely involves the down-regulation of a newly identified, pre-synaptic NMDAR with stimulatory auto-receptor function on glutamate release. In parallel sets of behavioral experiments challenging pfc function, mice sub-chronically treated with PCP displayed reduced behavioral flexibility (reversal learning) in a visual/tactile-cued discrimination task. The cognitive deficit was still evident 4 days after the last PCP administration and was associated to reduced brain metabolic activity during the performance of the behavioral task, notably in the pfc, as determined by [14C]2-deoxyglucose quantitative autoradiography. Clverall, our findings suggest that prolonged NMDAR blockade by repeated PCP administration results in a defect of glutamate release from excitatory afferents in the pfc, possibly ascribed to down-regulation of apre-synaptic stimulatory NMDAR. Deficient excitatory neurotransmission in the pfc is consistent with the reduced metabolic and functional activation of this area and the observed PCP-induced cognitive deficits.

Malignant pleural mesothelioma: leukocyte recruitment is not required for drug delivery induced by photodynamic therapy in a human xenograft model

Objective: The pre-treatment of tumor neo-vessels by photodynamic therapy (PDT) was shown to improve the distribution of chemotherapy administered subsequently. However, the precise mechanism by which PDT modifies the tumor vasculature is unknown. We have recently shown that leukocyteendothelial cell interaction was essential for PDT induced drug delivery to normal tissue. Our purpose was to determine if PDT could enhance drug distribution in malignant mesothelioma and if a comparable role for leucocytes existed.Methods: We grew human mesothelioma xenografts (H-meso-1) in the dorsal skinfold chambers of nude mice (n = 28). The rolling, sticking and recruitment of leucocytes was assessed in tumor and normal vessels following PDT (Visudyne 0?4 mg/kg, fluence rate 200 mW/cm2, fluence 60 J/cm2) using intravital microscopy. In parallel, the distribution of a macromolecule (FITC dextran, 2000 kDa) administered after PDT was determined. We compared these variables in control (no PDT), PDT + IgG (non specific antibody) and PDT + pan-selectin antibody (monoclonal P-E-L selectin antibody).Results: PDT significantly enhanced the distribution of FITC dextran in mesothelioma xenografts compared to controls. Interestingly, PDT enhanced the leukocyte-endothelial interaction significantly (rolling and recruitment)in tumor and surrounding normal vessels compared to controls. Leukocyte recruitment was significantly down-regulated by pan-selectin antibodies in tumor tissues. However, the suppression of leucocyte recruitement did not affect the extravasation of FITC-dextran in tumor tissue.Conclusion:PDTpre-treatment of the mesothelioma vasculature can enhance the distribution of macromolecular drugs administered subsequently. However, unlike normal vessels, leukocyte-endothelial cell interaction is not required for PDT induced leakage.

Predictability of music descriptor time series and its application to cover song detection

Intuitively, music has both predictable and unpredictable components. In this work we assess this qualitative statement in a quantitative way using common time series models fitted to state-of-the-art music descriptors. These descriptors cover different musical facets and are extracted from a large collection of real audio recordings comprising a variety of musical genres. Our findings show that music descriptor time series exhibit a certain predictability not only for short time intervals, but also for mid-term and relatively long intervals. This fact is observed independently of the descriptor, musical facet and time series model we consider. Moreover, we show that our findings are not only of theoretical relevance but can also have practical impact. To this end we demonstrate that music predictability at relatively long time intervals can be exploited in a real-world application, namely the automatic identification of cover songs (i.e. different renditions or versions of the same musical piece). Importantly, this prediction strategy yields a parameter-free approach for cover song identification that is substantially faster, allows for reduced computational storage and still maintains highly competitive accuracies when compared to state-of-the-art systems.

Time Series Input Selection using Multiple Kernel Learning

In this paper we study the relevance of multiple kernel learning (MKL) for the automatic selection of time series inputs. Recently, MKL has gained great attention in the machine learning community due to its flexibility in modelling complex patterns and performing feature selection. In general, MKL constructs the kernel as a weighted linear combination of basis kernels, exploiting different sources of information. An efficient algorithm wrapping a Support Vector Regression model for optimizing the MKL weights, named SimpleMKL, is used for the analysis. In this sense, MKL performs feature selection by discarding inputs/kernels with low or null weights. The approach proposed is tested with simulated linear and nonlinear time series (AutoRegressive, Henon and Lorenz series).

A la recherche de symptômes de désorientation dépendant d'un déficit d'intégration multisensorielle chez l'animal : un éclairage sur les mécanismes fondamentaux de la schizophrénie

Abstract Fundamental research in psychiatric neurosciences assumes that psychiatric disorders are associated with neurobiological factors. Identification of these factors would provide therapeutic targets as well as a better understanding of the relationship between- brain and behaviour in pathological processes. We conducted experiments in an animal model of schizophrenia. Several behavioural tasks were used to evaluate spatial and working memory in these animals. The model is based on glutathione deficit during cerebral development. Indeed, a 50% decrease of glutathione has been reported in prefrontal cortex of patients with schizophrenia. Glutathione is a major antioxidant in the brain and its deficit could lead to abnormal brain connectivity. The glutathione deficit was induced in rats by perinatal (PS-P16) subcutaneous injections with Lbuthionine-(S,R)-sullfoximine (BSO), an inhibitor of glutathione synthesis. This treatment leads to a transitory 50% glutathione levels during brain development. In parallel, we conducted behavioural testing in rats with a medial prefrontal cortex lesion. This allowed us to compare early damage induced by BSO treatment with a focal lesion in adults of a brain area known to present anomalies in schizophrenia. Finally, we conducted a series of experiments in senescent rats to evaluate if cognitive deficits could be related to neurobiological changes. Our results show that an early glutathione deficit provokes cognitive deficits in adulthood. These spatial and working memory deficits resemble the cognitive deficits observed in schizophrenia. The comparison with prefrontal rats revealed that the early brain glutathione deficit provoked more severe cognitive deficits than the prefrontal lesion in adult rats. Moreover, in both cases, we observed a dissociation in memory deficits depending on the type of locomotion that was used in behavioural experiments. Indeed, BSO treated rats as well as prefrontal rats showed place learning or working memory deficits in tasks conducted on dry surfaces where they had to walk. In contrast, they showed no deficit when the same cognitive functions were tested in the water maze. This dissociation might be sustained by a difference in requirement of sensory integration between walking and swimming tasks. Résumé La recherche fondamentale en neurosciences psychiatriques repose sur le présupposé selon lequel les symptômes manifestés dans les troubles psychiatriques auraient des concomitants neurobiologiques. Ceux-ci, une fois identifiés, offriraient des cibles pour une démarche thérapeutique ainsi que des modèles permettant de mieux comprendre les soubassements biologiques du comportement et des activités mentales. Nos expériences s'articulent autour de la question de la modélisation de la schizophrénie chez l'animal. Nous avons recherché chez ces animaux des troubles cognitifs et sensoriels associés à la schizophrénie. En effet, chez l'homme comme chez l'animal, la mémoire spatiale et la mémoire de travail dépendent fortement de la capacité d'intégration et d'organisation des informations sensorielles. Les premières expériences ont été menées suite à une perturbation périnatale du développement cérébral. Celle-ci visait à reproduire une diminution du taux de glutathion dans le cerveau, des recherches précédentes ayant observé une diminution de 50% du taux de glutathion dans le cortex préfrontal de patients schizophrènes. Le glutathion étant un antioxydant majeur dans le cerveau, son déficit pourrait conduire à des perturbations de la circuiterie cérébrale. Nous avons reproduit ce déficit chez le rat, par injection de Lbuthionine-(S,R)-sullfoximine (BSO), un inhibiteur de la synthèse du glutathion... Ce traitement a été administré pendant la période périnatale (du jour postnatal 5 au jour 16) provoquant une diminution de 50% du taux de glutathion. Nous avons ensuite évalué lës répercussions de cette atteinte précoce sur le comportement des rats à l'âge adulte. Ce modèle s'inscrit donc dans l'hypothèse neurodéveloppementale qui associe la schizophrénie à une atteinte du développement cérébral normal. Nous avons ensuite conduit des expériences similaires chez des rats ayant subi une lésion du cortex préfrontal pour comparer les répercussions du traitement périnatal avec une lésion, à l'âge adulte, d'une aire cérébrale connue pour présenter des anomalies chez les patients. Finalement, nous avons évalué si les processus sensoriels et cognitifs précédemment étudiés pouvaient également être affectés lors du vieillissement normal en recherchant des corrélats biologiques des déficits de mémoire liés à l'âge avancé. Nos résultats montrent que ce déficit précoce en glutathion peut avoir des répercussions surale comportement à l'âge adulte. On a relevé une similarité avec les déficits cognitifs associés.à la schizophrénie, incluant des déficits de mémoire de travail ainsi que des déficits de mémoire spatiale. Ces déficits étaient fortement liés au type de locomotion utilisée et n'ont été observés que dans les tâches où les animaux devaient rejoindre un but en marchant mais pas dans lés tests dans lesquels ils devaient localiser une cible en nageant. Les déficits induits par la lésion préfrontale chez l'adulte étaient beaucoup plus légers que ceux découlant de l'atteinte périnatale mais présentaient une dissociation analogue en fonction du type de locomotion. De plus, des tests similaires menés au cours du vieillissement confirment que la mémoire de travail peut être affectée sélectivement par le vieillissement dans une tâche où les animaux doivent marcher, tout en restant intacte dans le bassin de Morris. Les déficits cognitifs liés au vieillissement étaient significativement corrélés à des différences de niveaux des protéines post-synaptiques PSD95 (postsynaptic density 95). L'ensemble des résultats montre que les tests qui sont fréquemment utilisés pour évaluer la mémoire chez l'animal pourraient faire appel à des processus différents. Cette différence pourrait notamment tenir au niveau d'intégration sensorielle requis pour résoudre la tâche, qui est particulièrement sollicitée au cours d'une locomotion intermittente.

Concepts of metastasis in flux: the stromal progression model.

The ability of tumor cells to leave a primary tumor, to disseminate through the body, and to ultimately seed new secondary tumors is universally agreed to be the basis for metastasis formation. An accurate description of the cellular and molecular mechanisms that underlie this multistep process would greatly facilitate the rational development of therapies that effectively allow metastatic disease to be controlled and treated. A number of disparate and sometimes conflicting hypotheses and models have been suggested to explain various aspects of the process, and no single concept explains the mechanism of metastasis in its entirety or encompasses all observations and experimental findings. The exciting progress made in metastasis research in recent years has refined existing ideas, as well as giving rise to new ones. In this review we survey some of the main theories that currently exist in the field, and show that significant convergence is emerging, allowing a synthesis of several models to give a more comprehensive overview of the process of metastasis. As a result we postulate a stromal progression model of metastasis. In this model, progressive modification of the tumor microenvironment is equally as important as genetic and epigenetic changes in tumor cells during primary tumor progression. Mutual regulatory interactions between stroma and tumor cells modify the stemness of the cells that drive tumor growth, in a manner that involves epithelial-mesenchymal and mesenchymal-epithelial-like transitions. Similar interactions need to be recapitulated at secondary sites for metastases to grow. Early disseminating tumor cells can progress at the secondary site in parallel to the primary tumor, both in terms of genetic changes, as well as progressive development of a metastatic stroma. Although this model brings together many ideas in the field, there remain nevertheless a number of major open questions, underscoring the need for further research to fully understand metastasis, and thereby identify new and effective ways of treating metastatic disease.