Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

Sustainability of the Peruvian anchoveta supply chains from sea to shelf: towards a new strategy for optimal use of resources

The research performed a sustainability assessment of supply chains of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in Peru. The corresponding fisheries lands 6.5 million t per year, of which <2% is rendered into products for direct human consumption (DHC) and 98% reduced into feed ingredients (fishmeal and fish oil, FMFO), for export. Several industries compete for the anchoveta resources, generating local and global impacts. The need for understanding these dynamics, towards sustainability-improving management and policy recommendations, determined the development of a sustainability assessment framework: 1) characterisation and modelling of the systems under study (with Life Cycle Assessment and other tools) including local aquaculture, 2) calculation of sustainability indicators (i.e. energy efficiency, nutritional value, socio-economic performances), and 3) sustainability comparison of supply chains; definition and comparison of alternative exploitation scenarios. Future exploitation scenarios were defined by combining an ecosystem and a material flow models: continuation of the status quo (Scenario 1), shift towards increased proportion of DHC production (Scenario 2), and radical reduction of the anchoveta harvest in order for other fish stocks to recover and be exploited for DHC (Scenario 3). Scenario 2 was identified as the most sustainable. Management and policy recommendations include improving of: controls for compliance with management measures, sanitary conditions for DHC, landing infrastructure for small- and medium-scale (SMS) fisheries; the development of a national refrigerated distribution chain; and the assignation of flexible tolerances for discards from different DHC processes.

Determination of sea surface salinity and wind speed by L-band microwave radiometry from a fixed platform

The European Space Agency Soil Moisture andOcean Salinity (SMOS) mission aims at obtaining global maps ofsoil moisture and sea surface salinity from space for large-scale andclimatic studies. It uses an L-band (1400–1427 MHz) MicrowaveInterferometric Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis to measurebrightness temperature of the earth’s surface at horizontal andvertical polarizations ( h and v). These two parameters will beused together to retrieve the geophysical parameters. The retrievalof salinity is a complex process that requires the knowledge ofother environmental information and an accurate processing ofthe radiometer measurements. Here, we present recent resultsobtained from several studies and field experiments that were partof the SMOS mission, and highlight the issues still to be solved.

Experimental evidence that intra-specific competition in seagrass meadows reduces reproductive potential in the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck)

To better understand the biological controls that regulate sea urchin dynamics, we studied the effects of potential inter- and intra-specific competition for food on several biological variables of the main sea urchin in the Mediterranean (Paracentrotus lividus). We carried out a caging experiment in which we manipulated sea urchin density (natural vs. high density) and herbivorous fish (Sarpa salpa) accessibility (free access vs. exclusion) in a Posidonia oceanica meadow. No evidence of competition between fish and urchins was detected. Neither density-dependent mortality nor changes in the somatic variables were found; however, we detected that intra-specific competition affected the reproductive potential of P. lividus. The gonad index of urchins at high population densities was ca. 30% lower than that of urchins at natural densities. As a spawning event had just occurred when urchins were collected, these differences probably reflect differences in reserve content, which may compromise the following reproductive period and decrease survival in the long term, as the gonads are also used as storage organs. For the time period studied, mortality rates appeared to be independent of local densities. The results indicate that a long-term negative feedback mechanism appears to take place in P. lividus in response to increased population density.

Microsatellite markers reveal shallow genetic differentiation between cohorts of the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck) in northwest Mediterranean

Temporal variability was studied in the common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus through the analysis of the genetic composition of three yearly cohorts sampled over two consecutive springs in a locality in northwestern Mediterranean. Individuals were aged using growth ring patterns observed in tests and samples were genotyped for five microsatellite loci. No reduction of genetic diversity was observed relative to a sample of the adult population from the same location or within cohorts across years. FST and amova results indicated that the differentiation between cohorts is rather shallow and not significant, as most variability is found within cohorts and within individuals. This mild differentiation translated into estimates of effective population size of 90100 individuals. When the observed excess of homozygotes was taken into account, the estimate of the average number of breeders increased to c. 300 individuals. Given our restricted sampling area and the known small-scale heterogeneity in recruitment in this species, our results suggest that at stretches of a few kilometres of shoreline, large numbers of progenitors are likely to contribute to the larval pool at each reproduction event. Intercohort variation in our samples is six times smaller than spatial variation between adults of four localities in the western Mediterranean. Our results indicate that, notwithstanding the stochastic events that take place during the long planktonic phase and during the settlement and recruitment processes, reproductive success in this species is high enough to produce cohorts genetically diverse and with little differentiation between them. Further research is needed before the link between genetic structure and underlying physical and biological processes can be well established.

Some like it hot: temperature and acidification modulate larval development and settlement of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula

We studied the effects of temperature and pH on larval development, settlement and juvenile survival of a Mediterranean population of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula. Three temperatures (16, 17.5 and 19 °C) were tested at present pH conditions (pHT 8.1). At 19 °C, two pH levels were compared to reflect present average (pHT 8.1) and near-future average conditions (pHT 7.7, expected by 2100). Larvae were reared for 52-days to achieve the full larval development and complete the metamorphosis to the settler stage. We analyzed larval survival, growth, morphology and settlement success. We also tested the carry-over effect of acidification on juvenile survival after 3 days. Our results showed that larval survival and size significantly increased with temperature. Acidification resulted in higher survival rates and developmental delay. Larval morphology was significantly altered by low temperatures, which led to narrower larvae with relatively shorter skeletal rods, but larval morphology was only marginally affected by acidification. No carry-over effects between larvae and juveniles were detected in early settler survival, though settlers from larvae reared at pH 7.7 were significantly smaller than their counterparts developed at pH 8.1. These results suggest an overall positive effect of environmental parameters related to global change on the reproduction of A. lixula, and reinforce the concerns about the increasing negative impact on shallow Mediterranean ecosystems of this post-glacial colonizer.

Mesozoic sequence of Fuerteventura (Canary Islands): Witness of Early Jurassic sea-floor spreading in the central Atlantic

The Fuerteventura Jurassic sedimentary succession consists of oceanic and elastic deposits, the latter derived from the southwestern Moroccan continental margin. Normal mid-oceanic-ridge basalt (N-MORB) flows and breccias are found at the base of the sequence and witness sea-floor spreading events in the central Atlantic. These basalts were extruded in a postrift environment (post-late Pliensbachian), We propose a Toarcian age for the Atlantic oceanic floor in this region, on the basis of the presence higher up in the sequence of the Bositra buchi filament microfacies (Aalenian-Bajocian) and of elastic deposits reflecting tectono-eustatic events (e.g,, late Toarcian to mid-Callovian erosion of the rift shoulder). The S-l sea-floor oceanic magnetic anomaly west of Fuerteventura is therefore at least Toarcian in age. The remaining sequence records Atlantic-Tethyan basinal facies (e.g., Callovian-Oxfordian red clays, Aptian-Albian black shales) alternating with elastic deposits (e.g., Kimmeridgian-Berriasian periplatform calciturbidites and a Lower Cretaceous deep-sea fan system). The Fuerteventura N-MORB outcrops represent the only Early Jurassic oceanic basement described so far in the central Atlantic. They are covered by a 1600 m, nearly continuous sedimentary sequence which extends to Upper Cretaceous facies.

Impacts on the deep-sea ecosystem by a severe coastal storm

Major coastal storms, associated with strong winds, high waves and intensified currents, and occasionally with heavy rains and flash floods, are mostly known because of the serious damage they can cause along the shoreline and the threats they pose to navigation. However, there is a profound lack of knowledge on the deep-sea impacts of severe coastal storms. Concurrent measurements of key parameters along the coast and in the deep-sea are extremely rare. Here we present a unique data set showing how one of the most extreme coastal storms of the last decades lashing the Western Mediterranean Sea rapidly impacted the deep-sea ecosystem. The storm peaked the 26th of December 2008 leading to the remobilization of a shallow-water reservoir of marine organic carbon associated with fine particles and resulting in its redistribution across the deep basin. The storm also initiated the movement of large amounts of coarse shelf sediment, which abraded and buried benthic communities. Our findings demonstrate, first, that severe coastal storms are highly efficient in transporting organic carbon from shallow water to deep water, thus contributing to its sequestration and, second, that natural, intermittent atmospheric drivers sensitive to global climate change have the potential to tremendously impact the largest and least known ecosystem on Earth, the deep-sea ecosystem.