Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system

In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office’s 24- member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model’s parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits “jumpiness” in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone.

The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on station rainfall and river level in the Fly River system, Papua New Guinea

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in tropical rainfall on the large scale, but its signal is often obscured in individual station data, where effects are most directly felt at the local level. The Fly River system, Papua New Guinea, is one of the wettest regions on Earth and is at the heart of the MJO envelope. A 16 year time series of daily precipitation at 15 stations along the river system exhibits strong MJO modulation in rainfall. At each station, the difference in rainfall rate between active and suppressed MJO conditions is typically 40% of the station mean. The spread of rainfall between individual MJO events was small enough such that the rainfall distributions between wet and dry phases of the MJO were clearly separated at the catchment level. This implies that successful prediction of the large-scale MJO envelope will have a practical use for forecasting local rainfall. In the steep topography of the New Guinea Highlands, the mean and MJO signal in station precipitation is twice that in the satellite Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42HQ product, emphasizing the need for ground-truthing satellite-based precipitation measurements. A clear MJO signal is also present in the river level, which peaks simultaneously with MJO precipitation input in its upper reaches but lags the precipitation by approximately 18 days on the flood plains.

Effect of acceptable use policy on employee computer use : case of Sri Lankan software development organizations

It is a known fact that some employees misuse the organizational computers to do their personal work such as sending emails, surfing the Internet, chatting, playing games. These activities not only waste productive time of employees but also bring a risk factor to the organization. This affects organizations in the software industry very much as almost all of their employees are connected to the Internet throughout them day./ By introducing an Acceptable Use Policy (AUP) for an organization, it is believed that the computer misuse by its employees could be reduced. In many countries Acceptable Use Policies are used and they have been studied with various perspectives. In Sri Lankan context research on these areas are scarce. This research explored the situation in Sri Lanka with respect to AUPs and their effectiveness./ A descriptive study was carried out to identify the large and medium scale software development organizations that had implemented computer usage guidelines for employees. A questionnaire was used to gather information regarding employee’s usual computer usage behavior. Stratified random sampling was employed to draw a representative sample from the population./ Majority of the organizations have not employed a written guideline on acceptable use of work computers. The study results did not provide evidence to conclude that the presence or non presence of an AUP has a significant difference in computer use behaviors of employees. A significant negative correlation was observed between level of awareness about AUP and misuse. Access to the Internet and organizational settings were identified as significant factors that influence employee computer misuse behavior.

A regime-dependent parametrization of subgrid-scale cloud water content variability

The subgrid-scale spatial variability in cloud water content can be described by a parameter f called the fractional standard deviation. This is equal to the standard deviation of the cloud water content divided by the mean. This parameter is an input to schemes that calculate the impact of subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity on gridbox-mean radiative fluxes and microphysical process rates. A new regime-dependent parametrization of the spatial variability of cloud water content is derived from CloudSat observations of ice clouds. In addition to the dependencies on horizontal and vertical resolution and cloud fraction included in previous parametrizations, the new parametrization includes an explicit dependence on cloud type. The new parametrization is then implemented in the Global Atmosphere 6 (GA6) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model and used to model the effects of subgrid variability of both ice and liquid water content on radiative fluxes and autoconversion and accretion rates in three 20-year atmosphere-only climate simulations. These simulations show the impact of the new regime-dependent parametrization on diagnostic radiation calculations, interactive radiation calculations and both interactive radiation calculations and in a new warm microphysics scheme. The control simulation uses a globally constant f value of 0.75 to model the effect of cloud water content variability on radiative fluxes. The use of the new regime-dependent parametrization in the model results in a global mean which is higher than the control's fixed value and a global distribution of f which is closer to CloudSat observations. When the new regime-dependent parametrization is used in radiative transfer calculations only, the magnitudes of short-wave and long-wave top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing are reduced, increasing the existing global mean biases in the control. When also applied in a new warm microphysics scheme, the short-wave global mean bias is reduced.

Efficient incorporation of channel cross-section geometry uncertainty into regional and global scale flood inundation models

This paper investigates the challenge of representing structural differences in river channel cross-section geometry for regional to global scale river hydraulic models and the effect this can have on simulations of wave dynamics. Classically, channel geometry is defined using data, yet at larger scales the necessary information and model structures do not exist to take this approach. We therefore propose a fundamentally different approach where the structural uncertainty in channel geometry is represented using a simple parameterization, which could then be estimated through calibration or data assimilation. This paper first outlines the development of a computationally efficient numerical scheme to represent generalised channel shapes using a single parameter, which is then validated using a simple straight channel test case and shown to predict wetted perimeter to within 2% for the channels tested. An application to the River Severn, UK is also presented, along with an analysis of model sensitivity to channel shape, depth and friction. The channel shape parameter was shown to improve model simulations of river level, particularly for more physically plausible channel roughness and depth parameter ranges. Calibrating channel Manning’s coefficient in a rectangular channel provided similar water level simulation accuracy in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to a model where friction and shape or depth were calibrated. However, the calibrated Manning coefficient in the rectangular channel model was ~2/3 greater than the likely physically realistic value for this reach and this erroneously slowed wave propagation times through the reach by several hours. Therefore, for large scale models applied in data sparse areas, calibrating channel depth and/or shape may be preferable to assuming a rectangular geometry and calibrating friction alone.

Fine-scale temporal characterization of trends in soil water dissolved organic carbon and potential drivers

Long-term monitoring of surface water quality has shown increasing concentrations of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) across a large part of the Northern Hemisphere. Several drivers have been implicated including climate change, land management change, nitrogen and sulphur deposition and CO2 enrichment. Analysis of stream water data, supported by evidence from laboratory studies, indicates that an effect of declining sulphur deposition on catchment soil chemistry is likely to be the primary mechanism, but there are relatively few long term soil water chemistry records in the UK with which to investigate this, and other, hypotheses directly. In this paper, we assess temporal relationships between soil solution chemistry and parameters that have been argued to regulate DOC production and, using a unique set of co-located measurements of weather and bulk deposition and soil solution chemistry provided by the UK Environmental Change Network and the Intensive Forest Monitoring Level II Network . We used statistical non-linear trend analysis to investigate these relationships at 5 forested and 4 non-forested sites from 1993 to 2011. Most trends in soil solution DOC concentration were found to be non-linear. Significant increases in DOC occurred mostly prior to 2005. The magnitude and sign of the trends was associated qualitatively with changes in acid deposition, the presence/absence of a forest canopy, soil depth and soil properties. The strongest increases in DOC were seen in acidic forest soils and were most clearly linked to declining anthropogenic acid deposition, while DOC trends at some sites with westerly locations appeared to have been influenced by shorter-term hydrological variation. The results indicate that widespread DOC increases in surface waters observed elsewhere, are most likely dominated by enhanced mobilization of DOC in surficial organic horizons, rather than changes in the soil water chemistry of deeper horizons. While trends in DOC concentrations in surface horizons have flattened out in recent years, further increases may be expected as soil chemistry continues to adjust to declining inputs of acidity.

The role of subsidy in ensuring the sustainability of small-scale anaerobic digesters in Odisha, India

Small-scale anaerobic digester installation has been a development objective of the Indian government to provide rural households clean fuel. Anaerobic digester installation is heavily subsidised. Depending on caste, the rate of subsidy offered for the smallest system available (1m3) varies between 32.35% and 41.18% of the total installation price. Yet, there are gaps in knowledge regarding the usefulness of such subsidies from a sustainability perspective. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted to evaluate the circumstances required for digester sustainability. The analysis used household data collected from 115 cattle owning households in Odisha, India to evaluate profitability at three levels of subsidy (none, General caste subsidy, and Schedule Caste/Schedule Tribe subsidy). Additional analyses considered the effect of; taking a loan, replacing electric lighting with biogas lighting, and the wealth level of the household. The results indicated that access to subsidy improved profitability. Yet, profitability could be achieved without the use of subsidy. The level of benefit accrued by households was similar independent of wealth. However, the provision of subsidy was essential for ensuring profitability for those households required to take a loan to meet the expense of installation. Such findings highlight the importance of subsidy as a means of including the poor.

Rainfastness of poly(vinyl alcohol) deposits on Vicia faba leaf surfaces: from laboratory-scale washing to simulated rain

Rainfastness is the ability of agrochemical deposits to resist wash-off by rain and other related environmental phenomena. This work reports laboratory-scale and raintower studies of the rainfastness of fluorescently labeled poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) using fluorescent microscopy combined with image analysis. Samples of hydrolyzed PVA exhibit improved rainfastness over a threshold molecular weight, which correlates with PVA film dissolution, swelling, and crystalline properties. It was also established that the rainfastness of PVA scaled with the molecular weight over this threshold. These PVA samples were further characterized in order to determine the effect of the crystallinity on rainfastness. The quantification of rainfastness is of great interest to the field of agrochemical formulation development in order to improve the efficacy of pesticides and their adjuvants.

Effect of neuromuscular electrical stimulation and isotonic exercises in flexor and extensor muscles of knee of hemiplegic patients

Aim. To verify the muscular force and resistance to the movement of the flexor and extensor muscles of the knee of patients with spasticity after treatment with neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) and isotonic exercises. Patients and methods. The patients this study were divided into group I (NMES) and group 2 (isotonic exercises). Their muscular torque and resistance to the movement of the flexor and extensor knee muscles were measured by the isokinetic dynamometer and the degree of spasticity by the modified Ashworth scale before and after ten sessions. Results. Alterations in the scores of the modified Ashworth scale were not observed. An increase in the flexor torque in group 1 (p = 0.041) and in group 2 (p = 0.001) was verified. In the passive mode, group 1 presented a reduction of resistance to the flexion movement (p = 0.026), while in group 2, a reduction of resistance to both the flexion (p = 0,029) and extension movements (p = 0.019) was verified. Conclusions. The two therapeutical resources had their efficiency proven only for the increase of the force of the flexor muscles. The resistance to movement, the isotonic exercises were more effective because they promoted a reduction in the resistance of the flexor and extensor knee muscles.

Development of a ESES Solar Thermal Lab on Full Scale System

The main aim of this project is to develop an ESES lab on a full scale system. The solar combisystem used is available most of the time and is only used twice a year to carry out some technical courses. At the moment, there are no other laboratories about combisystems. The experiments were designed in a way to use the system to the most in order to help the students apply the theoretical knowledge in the solar thermal course as well as make them more familiar with solar systems components. The method adopted to reach this aim is to carry out several test sequences on the system, in order to help formulating at the end some educating experiments. A few tests were carried out at the beginning of the project just for the sake of understanding the system and figuring out if any additional measuring equipment is required. The level of these tests sequences was varying from a simple energy draw off or collector loop controller respond tests to more complicated tests, such as the use of the ‘collector’ heater to simulate the solar collector effect on the system. The tests results were compared and verified with the theoretical data wherever relevant. The results of the experiment about the use of the ‘collector’ heater instead of the collector were positively acceptable. Finally, the Lab guide was developed based on the results of these experiments and also the experience gotten while conducting them. The lab work covers the theories related to solar systems in general and combisystems in particular. 

Systematic work environment management : experiences from implementation in Swedish small-scale enterprises

Small-scale enterprises face difficulties in fulfilling the regulations for organising Systematic Work Environment Management. This study compared three groups of small-scale manufacturing enterprises with and without support for implementing the provision. Two implementation methods, supervised and network method, were used. The third group worked according to their own ideas. Twenty-three enterprises participated. The effects of the implementation were evaluated after one year by semi-structured dialogue with the manager and safety representative. Each enterprise was classified on compliance with ten demands concerning the provision. The work environment was estimated by the WEST-method. Impact of the implementation on daily work was also studied. At the follow-up, the enterprises in the supervised method reported slightly more improvements in the fulfilment of the demands in the provision than the enterprises in the network method and the enterprises working on their own did. The effect of the project reached the employees faster in the enterprises with the supervised method. In general, the work environment improved to some extent in all enterprises. Extensive support to small-scale enterprises in terms of advise and networking aimed to fulfil the regulations of Systematic Work Environment Management had limited effect especially considering the cost of applying these methods.

Large-scale metabolomic profiling identifies novel biomarkers for incident coronary heart disease

Analyses of circulating metabolites in large prospective epidemiological studies could lead to improved prediction and better biological understanding of coronary heart disease (CHD). We performed a mass spectrometry-based non-targeted metabolomics study for association with incident CHD events in 1,028 individuals (131 events; 10 y. median follow-up) with validation in 1,670 individuals (282 events; 3.9 y. median follow-up). Four metabolites were replicated and independent of main cardiovascular risk factors [lysophosphatidylcholine 18∶1 (hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation [SD] increment = 0.77, P-value<0.001), lysophosphatidylcholine 18∶2 (HR = 0.81, P-value<0.001), monoglyceride 18∶2 (MG 18∶2; HR = 1.18, P-value = 0.011) and sphingomyelin 28∶1 (HR = 0.85, P-value = 0.015)]. Together they contributed to moderate improvements in discrimination and re-classification in addition to traditional risk factors (C-statistic: 0.76 vs. 0.75; NRI: 9.2%). MG 18∶2 was associated with CHD independently of triglycerides. Lysophosphatidylcholines were negatively associated with body mass index, C-reactive protein and with less evidence of subclinical cardiovascular disease in additional 970 participants; a reverse pattern was observed for MG 18∶2. MG 18∶2 showed an enrichment (P-value = 0.002) of significant associations with CHD-associated SNPs (P-value = 1.2×10-7 for association with rs964184 in the ZNF259/APOA5 region) and a weak, but positive causal effect (odds ratio = 1.05 per SD increment in MG 18∶2, P-value = 0.05) on CHD, as suggested by Mendelian randomization analysis. In conclusion, we identified four lipid-related metabolites with evidence for clinical utility, as well as a causal role in CHD development.

Synthesis and physical properties of lipid-based poly(ester-urethane)s, I: Effect of varying polyester segment length

Four aliphatic thermoplastic poly(ester-urethane)s (PEUs) with similar molecular weights but varying polyesters molecular weight (534-1488 g/mol) were prepared from polyester diols, obtained by melt condensation of Azelaic acid and 1,9-Nonanediol, and 1,7-heptamethylene di-isocyanate (HPMDI) all sourced from vegetable oil feedstock. The thermal, and mechanical properties, and crystal structure of PEUs were investigated using DSC, TGA, DMA, tensile analysis and WAXD. For sufficiently long polyester chain, WAXD data indicated no hydrogen bonds polyethylene (PE)-like crystalline packing and for short polyester chains, small crystal domains with significant H-bonded polyamide (PA)-like packing. Crystallinity decreased with decreasing polyester molecular weights. The polymorphism of PEUs and consequently their melting characteristics were found to be largely controlled by polyester segment length. TGA of the PEUs indicated improved thermal stability with decreasing polyester chain length, suggesting a stabilization effect by urethane groups. Mechanical properties investigated by DMA and tensile analysis were found to scale predictably with the overall crystallinity of PEUs. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of supplementing compost with grapeseed meal on Agaricus bisporus production

BACKGROUND: This work assesses the agronomic performance of grapeseed meal, before and after oil extraction, in nutritional compost supplement when growing the mushroom species Agaricus bisporus (Lange) Imbach. The effect of formaldehyde treatment before using this compost is also considered. Materials were applied at different doses at spawning. Along with non-supplemented compost, three commercial nutritional supplements were used as controls.RESULTS: In general terms, grapeseed meal performance was similar to that of commercial delayed-release nutrients, but improved the non-supplemented compost response. We highlight that grapeseed enhances performance as larger yields of harvested mushrooms were obtained with greater dry weight content; however, their protein content was lower. The best performance was displayed by fresh formaldehyde-treated grapeseed (6000 ppm) when applied to the 10 g kg(-1) compost dose.CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that grapeseed meal offers a great potential to be applied on a commercial scale. The addition of grapeseed resulted in an enhanced performance as shown by the higher number of harvested mushrooms. The use of grapeseed meal (extracted or non-extracted), a low-cost ingredient with high levels of carbohydrates, may suppose an economic profit on the basis of the positive effect of adding carbon in the mushroom cultivation. (C) 2012 Society of Chemical Industry