Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Reliability evaluations of railway power supplies by fault-tree analysis

High reliability of railway power systems is one of the essential criteria to ensure quality and cost-effectiveness of railway services. Evaluation of reliability at system level is essential for not only scheduling maintenance activities, but also identifying reliability-critical components. Various methods to compute reliability on individual components or regularly structured systems have been developed and proven to be effective. However, they are not adequate for evaluating complicated systems with numerous interconnected components, such as railway power systems, and locating the reliability critical components. Fault tree analysis (FTA) integrates the reliability of individual components into the overall system reliability through quantitative evaluation and identifies the critical components by minimum cut sets and sensitivity analysis. The paper presents the reliability evaluation of railway power systems by FTA and investigates the impact of maintenance activities on overall reliability. The applicability of the proposed methods is illustrated by case studies in AC railways.

Reliability prediction using the non-parametric explicit hazard model : a case study

Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.

Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

Political theory and theoretical physics

This paper argues, somewhat along a Simmelian line, that political theory may produce practical and universal theories like those developed in theoretical physics. The reasoning behind this paper is to show that the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may be true by way of comparing it to Einstein’s Special Relativity – specifically concerning the parameters of symmetry, unification, simplicity, and utility. These parameters are what make a theory in physics as meeting them not only fits with current knowledge, but also produces paths towards testing (application). As the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may meet these same parameters, it could settle the debate concerning the definition of democracy. This will be argued firstly by discussing what the theory of ‘basic democracy’ is and why it differs from previous work; secondly by explaining the parameters chosen (as in why these and not others confirm or scuttle theories); and thirdly by comparing how Special Relativity and the theory of ‘basic democracy’ may match the parameters.

Application of reliability-centred maintenance technology on electric trains

This paper demonstrates the application of the reliability-centred maintenance (RCM) process to analyse and develop preventive maintenance tasks for electric multiple units (EMU) in the East Rail of the Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation (KCRC). Two systems, the 25 kV electrical power supply and the air-conditioning system of the EMU, have been chosen for the study. RCM approach on the two systems is delineated step by step in the paper. This study confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of RCM applications on the maintenance of electric trains.

Rayleigh theory of ultrasound scattering applied to liquid-filled contrast nanoparticles

We present a novel modified theory based upon Rayleigh scattering of ultrasound from composite nanoparticles with a liquid core and solid shell. We derive closed form solutions to the scattering cross-section and have applied this model to an ultrasound contrast agent consisting of a liquid-filled core (perfluorooctyl bromide, PFOB) encapsulated by a polymer shell (poly-caprolactone, PCL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to predict the dependence of the scattering cross-section upon material and dimensional parameters. A rapid increase in the scattering cross-section was achieved by increasing the compressibility of the core, validating the incorporation of high compressibility PFOB; the compressibility of the shell had little impact on the overall scattering cross-section although a more compressible shell is desirable. Changes in the density of the shell and the core result in predicted local minima in the scattering cross-section, approximately corresponding to the PFOB-PCL contrast agent considered; hence, incorporation of a lower shell density could potentially significantly improve the scattering cross-section. A 50% reduction in shell thickness relative to external radius increased the predicted scattering cross-section by 50%. Although it has often been considered that the shell has a negative effect on the echogeneity due to its low compressibility, we have shown that it can potentially play an important role in the echogeneity of the contrast agent. The challenge for the future is to identify suitable shell and core materials that meet the predicted characteristics in order to achieve optimal echogenity.

Kidlit from a graduate student's perspective : a problem in theory?

Plenary Session: "New Voices in Children's Literature"

A three year outcome evaluation of a theory based drink driving education program

This study reports on the impact of a "drink driving education program" taught to grade ten high school students. The program which involves twelve lessons uses strategies based on the Ajzen and Madden theory of planned behavior. Students were trained to use alternatives to drink driving and passenger behaviors. One thousand seven hundred and seventy-four students who had been taught the program in randomly assigned control and intervention schools were followed up three years later. There had been a major reduction in drink driving behaviors in both intervention and control students. In addition to this cohort change there was a trend toward reduced drink driving in the intervention group and a significant reduction in passenger behavior in this group. Readiness to use alternatives suggested that the major impact of the program was on students who were experimenting with the behavior at the time the program was taught. The program seems to have optimized concurrent social attitude and behavior change.

Sex, drugs, and deterrence : applying Stafford and Warr’s reconceptualization of deterrence theory to drug driving across the genders

A consistent finding in the literature is that males report greater usage of drugs and subsequently greater amounts of drug driving. Research also suggests that vicarious influences may be more pertinent to males than to females. Utilising Stafford and Warr’s (1993) reconceptualization of deterrence theory, this study sought to determine if the relative deterrent impact of zero-tolerance drug driving laws is disparate between genders. A sample of motorists’ (N = 899) completed a self-report questionnaire assessing participants frequency of drug driving and personal and vicarious experiences with punishment and punishment avoidance. Results show that males were significantly more likely to report future intentions of drug driving. Additionally, vicarious experiences of punishment avoidance was a more influential predictor of future drug driving instances for males with personal experiences of punishment avoidance a more influential predictor for females. These findings can inform gender sensitive media campaigns and interventions for convicted drug drivers.

The applicability of Bowen's family theory to the Malay population

The changes of economic status in Malaysia have lead to many psychosocial problems especially among the young people. Counselling and psychotherapy have been seen as one of the solutions that are practiced in Western Culture. Most counselling theorists believe that their theory is universal however there is limited research to prove it. This paper will describe an ongoing study conducted in Malaysia about the applicability of one Western counselling Theory, Bowen’s family theory the Differentiation of self levels in the family allow a person to both leave the family’s boundaries in search of uniqueness and continually return to the family in order to further establish a sense of belonging. In addition Bowen believed that this comprised of four measures: Differentiation of Self (DSI), Family Inventory of Live Event (ILE), Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS) and Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC). Preliminary findings are discussed and the implication in enhancing the quality of teaching family counselling in universities explored.

Years 2 to 6 students' ability to generalise : models, representations and theory for teaching and learning

Over the last three years, in our Early Algebra Thinking Project, we have been studying Years 3 to 5 students’ ability to generalise in a variety of situations, namely, compensation principles in computation, the balance principle in equivalence and equations, change and inverse change rules with function machines, and pattern rules with growing patterns. In these studies, we have attempted to involve a variety of models and representations and to build students’ abilities to switch between them (in line with the theories of Dreyfus, 1991, and Duval, 1999). The results have shown the negative effect of closure on generalisation in symbolic representations, the predominance of single variance generalisation over covariant generalisation in tabular representations, and the reduced ability to readily identify commonalities and relationships in enactive and iconic representations. This chapter uses the results to explore the interrelation between generalisation and verbal and visual comprehension of context. The studies evidence the importance of understanding and communicating aspects of representational forms which allowed commonalities to be seen across or between representations. Finally the chapter explores the implications of the studies for a theory that describes a growth in integration of models and representations that leads to generalisation.

Predicting the consumption of foods low in saturated fats among people diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The role of planning in the theory of planned behaviour

The present study tested the utility of an extended version of the theory of planned behaviour that included a measure of planning, in the prediction of eating foods low in saturated fats among adults diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. Participants (N = 184) completed questionnaires assessing standard theory of planned behaviour measures (attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control) and the additional volitional variable of planning in relation to eating foods low in saturated fats. Self-report consumption of foods low insaturated fats was assessed 1 month later. In partial support of the theory of planned behaviour, results indicated that attitude and subjective norm predicted intentions to eat foods low in saturated fats and intentions and perceived behavioural control predicted the consumption of foods low in saturated fats. As an additional variable, planning predicted the consumption of foods low in saturated fats directly and also mediated the intention–behaviour and perceived behavioural control–behaviour relationships, suggesting an important role for planning as a post-intentional construct determining healthy eating choices. Suggestions are offered for interventions designed to improve adherence to healthy eating recommendations for people diagnosed with these chronic conditions with a specific emphasis on the steps and activities that are required to promote a healthier lifestyle.

Tendering theory revisited

This paper discusses the content, origin and development of Tendering Theory as a theory of price determination. It demonstrates how tendering theory determines market prices and how it is different from game and decision theories, and that in the tendering process, with non-cooperative, simultaneous, single sealed bids with individual private valuations, extensive public information, a large number of bidders and a long sequence of tendering occasions, there develops a competitive equilibrium. The development of a competitive equilibrium means that the concept of the tender as the sum of a valuation and a strategy, which is at the core of tendering theory, cannot be supported and that there are serious empirical, theoretical and methodological inconsistencies in the theory.

Reliability of routinely collected hospital data for child maltreatment surveillance

Background: Internationally, research on child maltreatment-related injuries has been hampered by a lack of available routinely collected health data to identify cases, examine causes, identify risk factors and explore health outcomes. Routinely collected hospital separation data coded using the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) system provide an internationally standardised data source for classifying and aggregating diseases, injuries, causes of injuries and related health conditions for statistical purposes. However, there has been limited research to examine the reliability of these data for child maltreatment surveillance purposes. This study examined the reliability of coding of child maltreatment in Queensland, Australia. Methods: A retrospective medical record review and recoding methodology was used to assess the reliability of coding of child maltreatment. A stratified sample of hospitals across Queensland was selected for this study, and a stratified random sample of cases was selected from within those hospitals. Results: In 3.6% of cases the coders disagreed on whether any maltreatment code could be assigned (definite or possible) versus no maltreatment being assigned (unintentional injury), giving a sensitivity of 0.982 and specificity of 0.948. The review of these cases where discrepancies existed revealed that all cases had some indications of risk documented in the records. 15.5% of cases originally assigned a definite or possible maltreatment code, were recoded to a more or less definite strata. In terms of the number and type of maltreatment codes assigned, the auditor assigned a greater number of maltreatment types based on the medical documentation than the original coder assigned (22% of the auditor coded cases had more than one maltreatment type assigned compared to only 6% of the original coded data). The maltreatment types which were the most ‘under-coded’ by the original coder were psychological abuse and neglect. Cases coded with a sexual abuse code showed the highest level of reliability. Conclusion: Given the increasing international attention being given to improving the uniformity of reporting of child-maltreatment related injuries and the emphasis on the better utilisation of routinely collected health data, this study provides an estimate of the reliability of maltreatment-specific ICD-10-AM codes assigned in an inpatient setting.