Impact of automatic meetering infrastructure on multiutility business models

In the last decade energy utility sector has undergone major changes in terms of liberalization, increased competition, efforts in improving energy efficiency, and in new technological solution such as smart meter and grid operations. There are new information technology solutions (e.g. Advanced Metering Infrastructure /AMI ) on the horizon that will not only introduce new technical and organizational concepts, but have a very strong potential to radically change modus operandi of utility companies. Coordinated, multi-utility programs can help accelerate the development and market success of new high-efficiency technologies. These programs provide opportunities for researchers to develop new high-efficiency equipment for manufacturers to sell this new equipment with utility help, for utilities to increase the amount of energy they save from incentive programs, and for consumers to benefit from lower utility bills and a cleaner environment (as energy is reduced, pollutants produced at power plants decline).

Dynamic topic-based adaptation of language models: a comparison between different approaches

This paper presents a dynamic LM adaptation based on the topic that has been identified on a speech segment. We use LSA and the given topic labels in the training dataset to obtain and use the topic models. We propose a dynamic language model adaptation to improve the recognition performance in "a two stages" AST system. The final stage makes use of the topic identification with two variants: the first on uses just the most probable topic and the other one depends on the relative distances of the topics that have been identified. We perform the adaptation of the LM as a linear interpolation between a background model and topic-based LM. The interpolation weight id dynamically adapted according to different parameters. The proposed method is evaluated on the Spanish partition of the EPPS speech database. We achieved a relative reduction in WER of 11.13% over the baseline system which uses a single blackground LM.

Toma de decisiones en grupo con información parcial y veto basada en medidas de la intensidad de dominancia

En la mayoría de problemas de decisión a los que nos enfrentamos no hay evidencia sobre cuál es la mejor elección debido a la complejidad de los mismos. Esta complejidad está asociada a la existencia de múltiples objetivos conflictivos y a que en muchos casos solo se dispone de información incompleta o imprecisa sobre los distintos parámetros del modelo de decisión. Por otro lado, el proceso de toma de decisiones se puede realizar en grupo, debiendo incorporar al modelo las preferencias individuales de cada uno de los decisores y, posteriormente, agregarlas para alcanzar un consenso final, lo que dificulta más todavía el proceso de decisión. La metodología del Análisis de Decisiones (AD) es un procedimiento sistemático y lógico que permite estructurar y simplificar la tarea de tomar decisiones. Utiliza la información existente, datos recogidos, modelos y opiniones profesionales para cuantificar la probabilidad de los valores o impactos de las alternativas y la Teoría de la Utilidad para cuantificar las preferencias de los decisores sobre los posibles valores de las alternativas. Esta tesis doctoral se centra en el desarrollo de extensiones del modelo multicriterio en utilidad aditivo para toma de decisiones en grupo con veto en base al AD y al concepto de la intensidad de la dominancia, que permite explotar la información incompleta o imprecisa asociada a los parámetros del modelo. Se considera la posibilidad de que la importancia relativa que tienen los criterios del problema para los decisores se representa mediante intervalos de valores o información ordinal o mediante números borrosos trapezoidales. Adicionalmente, se considera que los decisores tienen derecho a veto sobre los valores de los criterios bajo consideración, pero solo un subconjunto de ellos es efectivo, teniéndose el resto solo en cuenta de manera parcial. ABSTRACT In most decision-making problems, the best choice is unclear because of their complexity. This complexity is mainly associated with the existence of multiple conflicting objectives. Besides, there is, in many cases, only incomplete or inaccurate information on the various decision model parameters. Alternatively, the decision-making process may be performed by a group. Consequently, the model must account for individual preferences for each decision-maker (DM), which have to be aggregated to reach a final consensus. This makes the decision process even more difficult. The decision analysis (DA) methodology is a systematic and logical procedure for structuring and simplifying the decision-making task. It takes advantage of existing information, collected data, models and professional opinions to quantify the probability of the alternative values or impacts and utility theory to quantify the DM’s preferences concerning the possible alternative values. This PhD. thesis focuses on developing extensions for a multicriteria additive utility model for group decision-making accounting for vetoes based on DA and on the concept of dominance intensity in order to exploit incomplete or imprecise information associated with the parameters of the decision-making model. We consider the possibility of the relative importance of criteria for DMs being represented by intervals or ordinal information, or by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Additionally, we consider that DMs are allowed to provide veto values for the criteria under consideration, of which only a subset are effective, whereas the remainder are only partially taken into account.

Estimating the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces on insect herbivore populations: A classic study revisited

Although most ecologists agree that both top-down and bottom-up forces (predation and resource limitation, respectively) act in concert to influence populations of herbivores, it has proven difficult to estimate the relative contributions of such forces in terrestrial systems. Using a combination of time–series analysis of population counts recorded over 16 years and experimental data, we present the first estimates of the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces on the population dynamics of two terrestrial insect herbivores on the English oak (Quercus robur). Data suggest that temporal variation in winter moth, Operophtera brumata, density is dominated by time-lagged effects of pupal predators. By comparison, spatial variation in O. brumata density is dominated by host–plant quality. Overall, top-down forces explain 34.2% of population variance, bottom-up forces explain 17.2% of population variance, and 48.6% remains unexplained. In contrast, populations of the green oak tortrix, Tortrix viridana, appear dominated by bottom-up forces. Resource limitation, expressed as intraspecific competition among larvae for oak leaves, explains 29.4% of population variance. Host quality effects explain an additional 5.7% of population variance. We detected no major top-down effects on T. viridana populations. An unknown factor causing a linear decline in T. viridana populations over the 16-year study period accounts for most of the remaining unexplained variance. We discuss the observed differences between the insect species and the utility of time–series analysis as a tool in assessing the relative importance of top-down and bottom-up forces on herbivore populations.

Up-regulation of specific tyrosinase mRNAs in mouse melanomas with the c2j gene substituted for the wild-type tyrosinase allele: Utilization in design of syngeneic immunotherapy models

The expression of cell-specialization genes is likely to be changing in tumor cells as their differentiation declines. Functional changes in these genes might yield unusual peptide epitopes with anti-tumor potential and could occur without modification in the DNA sequence of the gene. Melanomas undergo a characteristic decline in melanization that may reflect altered contributions of key melanocytic genes such as tyrosinase. Quantitative reverse transcriptase–PCR of the wild-type (C) tyrosinase gene in transgenic (C57BL/6 strain) mouse melanomas has revealed a shift toward alternative splicing of the pre-mRNA that generated increased levels of the Δ1b and Δ1d mRNA splice variants. The spontaneous c2j albino mutation of tyrosinase (in the C57BL/6 strain) changes the pre-mRNA splicing pattern. In c2j/c2j melanomas, alternative splicing was again increased. However, while some mRNAs (notably Δ1b) present in C/C were obligatorily absent, others (Δ3 and Δ1d) were elevated. In c2j/c2j melanomas, the percentage of total tyrosinase transcripts attributable to Δ3 reached approximately 2-fold the incidence in c2j/c2j or C/C skin melanocytes. The percentage attributable to Δ1d rose to approximately 2-fold the incidence in c2j/c2j skin, and to 10-fold that in C/C skin. These differences provide a basis for unique mouse models in which the melanoma arises in skin grafted from a C/C or c2j/c2j transgenic donor to a transgenic host of the same or opposite tyrosinase genotype. Immunotherapy designs then could be based on augmenting those antigenic peptides that are novel or overrepresented in a tumor relative to the syngeneic host.

A test of alternative models of diversification in tropical rainforests: Ecological gradients vs. rainforest refugia

Comparison of mitochondrial and morphological divergence in eight populations of a widespread leaf-litter skink is used to determine the relative importance of geographic isolation and natural selection in generating phenotypic diversity in the Wet Tropics Rainforest region of Australia. The populations occur in two geographically isolated regions, and within each region, in two different habitats (closed rainforest and tall open forest) that span a well characterized ecological gradient. Morphological differences among ancient geographic isolates (separated for several million years, judging by their mitochondrial DNA sequence divergence) were slight, but morphological and life history differences among habitats were large and occurred despite moderate to high levels of mitochondrial gene flow. A field experiment identified avian predation as one potential agent of natural selection. These results indicate that natural selection operating across ecological gradients can be more important than geographic isolation in similar habitats in generating phenotypic diversity. In addition, our results indicate that selection is sufficiently strong to overcome the homogenizing effects of gene flow, a necessary first step toward speciation in continuously distributed populations. Because ecological gradients may be a source of evolutionary novelty, and perhaps new species, their conservation warrants greater attention. This is particularly true in tropical regions, where most reserves do not include ecological gradients and transitional habitats.

Models of immune memory: On the role of cross-reactive stimulation, competition, and homeostasis in maintaining immune memory

There has been much debate on the contribution of processes such as the persistence of antigens, cross-reactive stimulation, homeostasis, competition between different lineages of lymphocytes, and the rate of cell turnover on the duration of immune memory and the maintenance of the immune repertoire. We use simple mathematical models to investigate the contributions of these various processes to the longevity of immune memory (defined as the rate of decline of the population of antigen-specific memory cells). The models we develop incorporate a large repertoire of immune cells, each lineage having distinct antigenic specificities, and describe the dynamics of the individual lineages and total population of cells. Our results suggest that, if homeostatic control regulates the total population of memory cells, then, for a wide range of parameters, immune memory will be long-lived in the absence of persistent antigen (T1/2 > 1 year). We also show that the longevity of memory in this situation will be insensitive to the relative rates of cross-reactive stimulation, the rate of turnover of immune cells, and the functional form of the term for the maintenance of homeostasis.

Relative role of heme nitrosylation and β-cysteine 93 nitrosation in the transport and metabolism of nitric oxide by hemoglobin in the human circulation

To quantify the reactions of nitric oxide (NO) with hemoglobin under physiological conditions and to test models of NO transport on hemoglobin, we have developed an assay to measure NO–hemoglobin reaction products in normal volunteers, under basal conditions and during NO inhalation. NO inhalation markedly raised total nitrosylated hemoglobin levels, with a significant arterial–venous gradient, supporting a role for hemoglobin in the transport and delivery of NO. The predominant species accounting for this arterial–venous gradient is nitrosyl(heme)hemoglobin. NO breathing increases S-nitrosation of hemoglobin β-chain cysteine 93, however only to a fraction of the level of nitrosyl(heme)hemoglobin and without a detectable arterial–venous gradient. A strong correlation between methemoglobin and plasma nitrate formation was observed, suggesting that NO metabolism is a primary physiological cause of hemoglobin oxidation. Our results demonstrate that NO–heme reaction pathways predominate in vivo, NO binding to heme groups is a rapidly reversible process, and S-nitrosohemoglobin formation is probably not a primary transport mechanism for NO but may facilitate NO release from heme.

Multiple independent origins of mitochondrial gene order in birds

Mitochondrial genomes of all vertebrate animals analyzed to date have the same 37 genes, whose arrangement in the circular DNA molecule varies only in the relative position of a few genes. This relative conservation suggests that mitochondrial gene order characters have potential utility as phylogenetic markers for higher-level vertebrate taxa. We report discovery of a mitochondrial gene order that has had multiple independent originations within birds, based on sampling of 137 species representing 13 traditionally recognized orders. This provides evidence of parallel evolution in mitochondrial gene order for animals. Our results indicate operation of physical constraints on mitochondrial gene order changes and support models for gene order change based on replication error. Bird mitochondria have a displaced OL (origin of light-strand replication site) as do various other Reptilia taxa prone to gene order changes. Our findings point to the need for broad taxonomic sampling in using mitochondrial gene order for phylogenetic analyses. We found, however, that the alternative mitochondrial gene orders distinguish the two primary groups of songbirds (order Passeriformes), oscines and suboscines, in agreement with other molecular as well as morphological data sets. Thus, although mitochondrial gene order characters appear susceptible to some parallel evolution because of mechanistic constraints, they do hold promise for phylogenetic studies.

A comparison of the potential role of the tetrodotoxin-insensitive sodium channels, PN3/SNS and NaN/SNS2, in rat models of chronic pain

Alterations in sodium channel expression and function have been suggested as a key molecular event underlying the abnormal processing of pain after peripheral nerve or tissue injury. Although the relative contribution of individual sodium channel subtypes to this process is unclear, the biophysical properties of the tetrodotoxin-resistant current, mediated, at least in part, by the sodium channel PN3 (SNS), suggests that it may play a specialized, pathophysiological role in the sustained, repetitive firing of the peripheral neuron after injury. Moreover, this hypothesis is supported by evidence demonstrating that selective “knock-down” of PN3 protein in the dorsal root ganglion with specific antisense oligodeoxynucleotides prevents hyperalgesia and allodynia caused by either chronic nerve or tissue injury. In contrast, knock-down of NaN/SNS2 protein, a sodium channel that may be a second possible candidate for the tetrodotoxin-resistant current, appears to have no effect on nerve injury-induced behavioral responses. These data suggest that relief from chronic inflammatory or neuropathic pain might be achieved by selective blockade or inhibition of PN3 expression. In light of the restricted distribution of PN3 to sensory neurons, such an approach might offer effective pain relief without a significant side-effect liability.

Applying reactive models to column experiments to assess the hydrogeochemistry of seawater intrusion: optimising ACUAINTRUSION and selecting cation exchange coefficients with PHREEQC

Three sets of laboratory column experimental results concerning the hydrogeochemistry of seawater intrusion have been modelled using two codes: ACUAINTRUSION (Chemical Engineering Department, University of Alicante) and PHREEQC (U.S.G.S.). These reactive models utilise the hydrodynamic parameters determined using the ACUAINTRUSION TRANSPORT software and fit the chloride breakthrough curves perfectly. The ACUAINTRUSION code was improved, and the instabilities were studied relative to the discretisation. The relative square errors were obtained using different combinations of the spatial and temporal steps: the global error for the total experimental data and the partial error for each element. Good simulations for the three experiments were obtained using the ACUAINTRUSION software with slight variations in the selectivity coefficients for both sediments determined in batch experiments with fresh water. The cation exchange parameters included in ACUAINTRUSION are those reported by the Gapon convention with modified exponents for the Ca/Mg exchange. PHREEQC simulations performed using the Gains-Thomas convention were unsatisfactory, with the exchange coefficients from the database of PHREEQC (or range), but those determined with fresh water – natural sediment allowed only an approximation to be obtained. For the treated sediment, the adjusted exchange coefficients were determined to improve the simulation and are vastly different from those from the database of PHREEQC or batch experiment values; however, these values fall in an order similar to the others determined under dynamic conditions. Different cation concentrations were simulated using two different software packages; this disparity could be attributed to the defined selectivity coefficients that affect the gypsum equilibrium. Consequently, different calculated sulphate concentrations are obtained using each type of software; a smaller mismatch was predicted using ACUAINTRUSION. In general, the presented simulations by ACUAINTRUSION and PHREEQC produced similar results, making predictions consistent with the experimental data. However, the simulated results are not identical to the experimental data; sulphate (total S) is overpredicted by both models, most likely due to such factors as the kinetics of gypsum, the possible variations in the exchange coefficients due to salinity and the neglect of other processes.

Integration of different models in the design of chemical processes: Application to the design of a power plant

With advances in the synthesis and design of chemical processes there is an increasing need for more complex mathematical models with which to screen the alternatives that constitute accurate and reliable process models. Despite the wide availability of sophisticated tools for simulation, optimization and synthesis of chemical processes, the user is frequently interested in using the ‘best available model’. However, in practice, these models are usually little more than a black box with a rigid input–output structure. In this paper we propose to tackle all these models using generalized disjunctive programming to capture the numerical characteristics of each model (in equation form, modular, noisy, etc.) and to deal with each of them according to their individual characteristics. The result is a hybrid modular–equation based approach that allows synthesizing complex processes using different models in a robust and reliable way. The capabilities of the proposed approach are discussed with a case study: the design of a utility system power plant that has been decomposed into its constitutive elements, each treated differently numerically. And finally, numerical results and conclusions are presented.

Comparisons between analogue and numerical models of thrust wedge development

Analogue and finite element numerical models with frictional and viscous properties are used to model thrust wedge development. Comparison between model types yields valuable information about analogue model evolution, scaling laws and the relative strengths and limitations of the techniques. Both model types show a marked contrast in structural style between ‘frictional-viscous domains’ underlain by a thin viscous layer and purely ‘frictional domains’. Closely spaced thrusts form a narrow and highly asymmetric fold-and-thrust belt in the frictional domain, characterized by in-sequence propagation of forward thrusts. In contrast, the frictional-viscous domain shows a wide and low taper wedge and a thrust belt with a more symmetrical vergence, with both forward and back thrusts. The frictional-viscous domain numerical models show that the viscous layer initially simple shears as deformation propagates along it, while localized deformation resulting in the formation of a pop-up structure occurs in the overlying frictional layers. In both domains, thrust shear zones in the numerical model are generally steeper than the equivalent faults in the analogue model, because the finite element code uses a non-associated plasticity flow law. Nevertheless, the qualitative agreement between analogue and numerical models is encouraging. It shows that the continuum approximation used in numerical models can be used to model frictional materials, such as sand, provided caution is taken to properly scale the experiments, and some of the limitations are taken into account.

3D models created from ROV videos and their corresponding subtransect dimensions

Underwater video transects have become a common tool for quantitative analysis of the seafloor. However a major difficulty remains in the accurate determination of the area surveyed as underwater navigation can be unreliable and image scaling does not always compensate for distortions due to perspective and topography. Depending on the camera set-up and available instruments, different methods of surface measurement are applied, which make it difficult to compare data obtained by different vehicles. 3-D modelling of the seafloor based on 2-D video data and a reference scale can be used to compute subtransect dimensions. Focussing on the length of the subtransect, the data obtained from 3-D models created with the software PhotoModeler Scanner are compared with those determined from underwater acoustic positioning (ultra short baseline, USBL) and bottom tracking (Doppler velocity log, DVL). 3-D model building and scaling was successfully conducted on all three tested set-ups and the distortion of the reference scales due to substrate roughness was identified as the main source of imprecision. Acoustic positioning was generally inaccurate and bottom tracking unreliable on rough terrain. Subtransect lengths assessed with PhotoModeler were on average 20% longer than those derived from acoustic positioning due to the higher spatial resolution and the inclusion of slope. On a high relief wall bottom tracking and 3-D modelling yielded similar results. At present, 3-D modelling is the most powerful, albeit the most time-consuming, method for accurate determination of video subtransect dimensions.

Age models and sedimentation rates of sites in the tropical Atlantic

Late Pleistocene signals of calcium carbonate, organic carbon, and opaline silica concentration and accumulation are documented in a series of cores from a zonal/meridional/depth transect in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean to reconstruct the regional sedimentary history. Spectral analysis reveals that maxima and minima in biogenous sedimentation occur with glacial-interglacial cyclicity as a function of both (1) primary production at the sea surface modulated by orbitally forced variation in trade wind zonality and (2) destruction at the seafloor by variation in the chemical character of advected intermediate and deep water from high latitudes modulated by high-latitude ice volume. From these results a pattern emerges in which the relative proportion of signal variance from the productivity signal centered on the precessional (23 kyr) band decreases while that of the destruction signal centered on the obliquity (41 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr) periods increases below ~3600-m ocean depth.