956 resultados para random forest regression


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Background: The most substantial and best preserved area of Atlantic Forest is within the biogeographical sub-region of Serra do Mar. The topographic complexity of the region creates a diverse array of microclimates, which can affect species distribution and diversity inside the forest. Given that Atlantic Forest includes highly heterogeneous environments, a diverse and medically important Culicidae assemblage, and possible species co-occurrence, we evaluated mosquito assemblages from bromeliad phytotelmata in Serra do Mar (southeastern Brazil). Methods: Larvae and pupae were collected monthly from Nidularium and Vriesea bromeliads between July 2008 and June 2009. Collection sites were divided into landscape categories (lowland, hillslope and hilltop) based on elevation and slope. Correlations between bromeliad mosquito assemblage and environmental variables were assessed using multivariate redundancy analysis. Differences in species diversity between bromeliads within each category of elevation were explored using the Renyi diversity index. Univariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to assess species co-occurrence. Results: A total of 2,024 mosquitoes belonging to 22 species were collected. Landscape categories (pseudo-F value = 1.89, p = 0.04), bromeliad water volume (pseudo-F = 2.99, p = 0.03) and bromeliad fullness (Pseudo-F = 4.47, p < 0.01) influenced mosquito assemblage structure. Renyi diversity index show that lowland possesses the highest diversity indices. The presence of An. homunculus was associated with Cx. ocellatus and the presence of An. cruzii was associated with Cx. neglectus, Cx. inimitabilis fuscatus and Cx. worontzowi. Anopheles cruzii and An. homunculus were taken from the same bromeliad, however, the co-occurrence between those two species was not statistically significant. Conclusions: One of the main findings of our study was that differences in species among mosquito assemblages were influenced by landscape characteristics. The bromeliad factor that influenced mosquito abundance and assemblage structure was fullness. The findings of the current study raise important questions about the role of An. homunculus in the transmission of Plasmodium in Serra do Mar, southeastern Atlantic Forest.

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In this paper, we propose a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. This random effect accommodates (or captures) the overdispersion in the counts and induces within-cluster correlation. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the intraclass correlation. Even though numerical integration methods are, in general, required for deriving the marginal models, we obtain the multivariate negative binomial model from a particular parameter setting of the hierarchical model. An iterative process is derived for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the multivariate negative binomial model. Residual analysis is proposed and two applications with real data are given for illustration. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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During my Doctoral study I researched about the remote detection of canopy N concentration in forest stands, its potentials and problems, under many overlapping perspectives. The study consisted of three parts. In S. Rossore 2000 dataset analysis, I tested regressions between N concentration and NIR reflectances derived from different sources (field samples, airborne and satellite sensors). The analysis was further expanded using a larger dataset acquired in year 2009 as part of a new campaign funded by the ESA. In both cases, a good correlation was observed between Landsat NIR, using both TM (2009) and ETM+ (2000) imagery, and N concentration measured by a CHN elemental analyzer. Concerning airborne sensors I did not obtain the same good results, mainly because of the large FOV of the two instruments, and to the anisotropy of vegetation reflectance. We also tested the relation between ground based ASD measures and nitrogen concentration, obtaining really good results. Thus, I decided to expand my study to the regional level, focusing only on field and satellite measures. I analyzed a large dataset for the whole of Catalonia, Spain; MODIS imagery was used, in consideration of its spectral characteristics and despite its rather poor spatial resolution. Also in this case a regression between nitrogen concentration and reflectances was found, but not so good as in previous experiences. Moreover, vegetation type was found to play an important role in the observed relationship. We concluded that MODIS is not the most suitable satellite sensor in realities like Italy and Catalonia, which present a patchy and inhomogeneous vegetation cover; so it could be utilized for the parameterization of eco-physiological and biogeochemical models, but not for really local nitrogen estimate. Thus multispectral sensors similar to Landsat Thematic Mapper, with better spatial resolution, could be the most appropriate sensors to estimate N concentration.

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Silvicultural treatments represent disturbances to forest ecosystems often resulting in transient increases in net nitrification and leaching of nitrate and base cations from the soil. Response of soil carbon (C) is more complex, decreasing from enhanced soil respiration and increasing from enhanced postharvest inputs of detritus. Because nitrogen (N) saturation can have similar effects on cation mobility, timber harvesting in N-saturated forests may contribute to a decline in both soil C and base cation fertility, decreasing tree growth. Although studies have addressed effects of either forest harvesting or N saturation separately, few data exist on their combined effects. Our study examined the responses of soil C and N to several commercially used silvicultural treatments within the Fernow Experimental Forest, West Virginia, USA, a site with N-saturated soils. Soil analyses included soil organic matter (SOM), C, N, C/N ratios, pH, and net nitrification. We hypothesized the following gradient of disturbance intensity among silvicultural practices (from most to least intense): even-age with intensive harvesting (EA-I), even-age with extensive harvesting, even-age with commercial harvesting, diameter limit, and single-tree harvesting (ST). We anticipated that effects on soil C and N would be greatest for EA-I and least with ST. Tree species exhibited a response to the gradient of disturbance intensity, with early successional species more predominant in high-intensity treatments and late successional species more predominant in low-intensity treatments. Results for soil variables, however, generally did not support our predictions, with few significant differences among treatments and between treatments and their paired controls for any of the measured soil variables. Multiple regression indicated that the best predictors for net nitrification among samples were SOM (positive relationship) and pH (negative relationship). This finding confirms the challenge of sustainable management of N-saturated forests.

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Increasingly, regression models are used when residuals are spatially correlated. Prominent examples include studies in environmental epidemiology to understand the chronic health effects of pollutants. I consider the effects of residual spatial structure on the bias and precision of regression coefficients, developing a simple framework in which to understand the key issues and derive informative analytic results. When the spatial residual is induced by an unmeasured confounder, regression models with spatial random effects and closely-related models such as kriging and penalized splines are biased, even when the residual variance components are known. Analytic and simulation results show how the bias depends on the spatial scales of the covariate and the residual; bias is reduced only when there is variation in the covariate at a scale smaller than the scale of the unmeasured confounding. I also discuss how the scales of the residual and the covariate affect efficiency and uncertainty estimation when the residuals can be considered independent of the covariate. In an application on the association between black carbon particulate matter air pollution and birth weight, controlling for large-scale spatial variation appears to reduce bias from unmeasured confounders, while increasing uncertainty in the estimated pollution effect.

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Assessment of soil disturbance on the Custer National Forest was conducted during two summers to determine if the U.S. Forest Service Forest Soil Disturbance Monitoring Protocol (FSDMP) was able to distinguish post-harvest soil conditions in a chronological sequence of sites harvested using different ground-based logging systems. Results from the first year of sampling suggested that the FSDMP point sampling method may not be sensitive enough to measure post-harvest disturbance in stands with low levels of disturbance. Therefore, a revised random transect method was used during the second sampling season to determine the actual extent of soil disturbance in these cutting units. Using combined data collected from both summers I detected statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) in fine fraction bulk density measurements between FSDMP disturbance classes across all sites. Disturbance class 3 (most severe) had the highest reported bulk density, which suggest that the FSDMP visual class estimates are defined adequately allowing for correlations to be made between visual disturbance and actual soil physical characteristics. Forest site productivity can be defined by its ability to retain carbon and convert it to above- and belowground biomass. However, forest management activities that alter basic site characteristics have the potential to alter productivity. Soil compaction is one critical management impact that is important to understand; compaction has been shown to impede the root growth potential of plants, reduce water infiltration rates increasing erosion potential, and alter plant available water and nutrients, depending on soil texture. A new method to assess ground cover, erosion, and other soil disturbances was recently published by the U.S. Forest Service, as the Forest Soil Disturbance Protocol (FSDMP). The FSDMP allows soil scientists to visually assign a disturbance class estimate (0 – none, 1, 2, 3 – severe) from field measures of consistently defined soil disturbance indicators (erosion, fire, rutting, compaction, and platy/massive/puddled structure) in small circular (15 cm) plots to compare soil quality properties pre- and post- harvest condition. Using this protocol we were able to determine that ground-based timber harvesting activities occurring on the Custer National Forest are not reaching the 15% maximum threshold for detrimental soil disturbance outlined by the Region 1 Soil Quality Standards.

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Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

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BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine the performance of a new, 3D-monitor based, objective stereotest in children under the age of four. METHODS: Random-dot circles (diameter 10 cm, crossed, disparity of 0.34 degrees) randomly changing their position were presented on an 3D-monitor while eye movements were monitored by infrared photo-oculography. If > or = 3 consecutive stimuli were seen, a positive response was assumed. One hundred thirty-four normal children aged 2 months to 4 years (average 17+/-15.3 months) were examined. RESULTS: Below the age of 12 months, we were not able to obtain a response to the 3D stimulus. For older children the following rates of positive responses were found: 12-18 months 25%, 18-24 months 10%, 24-30 months 16%, 30-36 months 57%, 36-42 months 100%, and 42-48 months 91%. Multiple linear logistic regression showed a significant influence on stimulus recognition of the explanatory variables age (p<0.00001) and child cooperation (p<0.001), but not of gender (p>0.1). CONCLUSIONS: This 3D-monitor based stereotest allows an objective measurement of random-dot stereopsis in younger children. It might open new ways to screen children for visual abnormalities and to study the development of stereovision. However, the current experimental setting does not allow determining random-dot stereopsis in children younger than 12 months.

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This study aimed to identify the microbial contamination of water from dental chair units (DCUs) using the prevalence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Legionella species and heterotrophic bacteria as a marker of pollution in water in the area of St. Gallen, Switzerland. Water (250 ml) from 76 DCUs was collected twice (early on a morning before using all the instruments and after using the DCUs for at least two hours) either from the high-speed handpiece tube, the 3 in 1 syringe or the micromotor for water quality testing. An increased bacterial count (>300 CFU/ml) was found in 46 (61%) samples taken before use of the DCU, but only in 29 (38%) samples taken two hours after use. Pseudomonas aeruginosa was found in both water samples in 6/76 (8%) of the DCUs. Legionella were found in both samples in 15 (20%) of the DCUs tested. Legionella anisa was identified in seven samples and Legionella pneumophila was found in eight. DCUs which were less than five years old were contaminated less often than older units (25% und 77%, p<0.001). This difference remained significant (0=0.0004) when adjusted for manufacturer and sampling location in a multivariable logistic regression. A large proportion of the DCUs tested did not comply with the Swiss drinking water standards nor with the recommendations of the American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

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This paper introduces and analyzes a stochastic search method for parameter estimation in linear regression models in the spirit of Beran and Millar [Ann. Statist. 15(3) (1987) 1131–1154]. The idea is to generate a random finite subset of a parameter space which will automatically contain points which are very close to an unknown true parameter. The motivation for this procedure comes from recent work of Dümbgen et al. [Ann. Statist. 39(2) (2011) 702–730] on regression models with log-concave error distributions.

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The tropical montane forests of the E Andean cordillera in Ecuador receive episodic Sahara-dust inputs particularly increasing Ca deposition. We added CaCl2 to isolate the effect of Ca deposition by Sahara dust to tropical montane forest from the simultaneously occurring pH effect. We examined components of the Ca cycle at four control plots and four plots with added Ca (2 × 5 kg ha–1 Ca annually as CaCl2) in a random arrangement. Between August 2007 and December 2009 (four applications of Ca), we determined Ca concentrations and fluxes in litter leachate, mineral soil solution (0.15 and 0.30 m depths), throughfall, and fine litterfall and Al concentrations and speciation in soil solutions. After 1 y of Ca addition, we assessed fine-root biomass, leaf area, and tree growth. Only < 3% of the applied Ca leached below the acid organic layer (pH 3.5–4.8). The added CaCl2 did not change electrical conductivity in the root zone after 2 y. In the second year of fertilization, Ca retention in the canopy of the Ca treatment tended to decrease relative to the control. After 2 y, 21% of the applied Ca was recycled to soil with throughfall and litterfall. One year after the first Ca addition, fine-root biomass had decreased significantly. Decreasing fine-root biomass might be attributed to a direct or an indirect beneficial effect of Ca on the soil decomposer community. Because of almost complete association of Al with dissolved organic matter and high free Ca2+ : Al3+ activity ratios in solution of all plots, Al toxicity was unlikely. We conclude that the added Ca was retained in the system and had beneficial effects on some plants.

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1. Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) experiments address ecosystem-level consequences of species loss by comparing communities of high species richness with communities from which species have been gradually eliminated. BEF experiments originally started with microcosms in the laboratory and with grassland ecosystems. A new frontier in experimental BEF research is manipulating tree diversity in forest ecosystems, compelling researchers to think big and comprehensively. 2. We present and discuss some of the major issues to be considered in the design of BEF experiments with trees and illustrate these with a new forest biodiversity experiment established in subtropical China (Xingangshan, Jiangxi Province) in 2009/2010. Using a pool of 40 tree species, extinction scenarios were simulated with tree richness levels of 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 species on a total of 566 plots of 25.8x25.8m each. 3. The goal of this experiment is to estimate effects of tree and shrub species richness on carbon storage and soil erosion; therefore, the experiment was established on sloped terrain. The following important design choices were made: (i) establishing many small rather than fewer larger plots, (ii) using high planting density and random mixing of species rather than lower planting density and patchwise mixing of species, (iii) establishing a map of the initial ecoscape' to characterize site heterogeneity before the onset of biodiversity effects and (iv) manipulating tree species richness not only in random but also in trait-oriented extinction scenarios. 4. Data management and analysis are particularly challenging in BEF experiments with their hierarchical designs nesting individuals within-species populations within plots within-species compositions. Statistical analysis best proceeds by partitioning these random terms into fixed-term contrasts, for example, species composition into contrasts for species richness and the presence of particular functional groups, which can then be tested against the remaining random variation among compositions. 5. We conclude that forest BEF experiments provide exciting and timely research options. They especially require careful thinking to allow multiple disciplines to measure and analyse data jointly and effectively. Achieving specific research goals and synergy with previous experiments involves trade-offs between different designs and requires manifold design decisions.

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16S rRNA genes and transcripts of Acidobacteria were investigated in 57 grassland and forest soils of three different geographic regions. Acidobacteria contributed 9-31% of bacterial 16S rRNA genes whereas the relative abundances of the respective transcripts were 4-16%. The specific cellular 16S rRNA content (determined as molar ratio of rRNA:rRNA genes) ranged between 3 and 80, indicating a low in situ growth rate. Correlations with flagellate numbers, vascular plant diversity and soil respiration suggest that biotic interactions are important determinants of Acidobacteria 16S rRNA transcript abundances in soils. While the phylogenetic composition of Acidobacteria differed significantly between grassland and forest soils, high throughput denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism fingerprinting detected 16S rRNA transcripts of most phylotypes in situ. Partial least squares regression suggested that chemical soil conditions such as pH, total nitrogen, C:N ratio, ammonia concentrations and total phosphorus affect the composition of this active fraction of Acidobacteria. Transcript abundance for individual Acidobacteria phylotypes was found to correlate with particular physicochemical (pH, temperature, nitrogen or phosphorus) and, most notably, biological parameters (respiration rates, abundances of ciliates or amoebae, vascular plant diversity), providing culture-independent evidence for a distinct niche specialization of different Acidobacteria even from the same subdivision.

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Conservation and monitoring of forest biodiversity requires reliable information about forest structure and composition at multiple spatial scales. However, detailed data about forest habitat characteristics across large areas are often incomplete due to difficulties associated with field sampling methods. To overcome this limitation we employed a nationally available light detection and ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing dataset to develop variables describing forest landscape structure across a large environmental gradient in Switzerland. Using a model species indicative of structurally rich mountain forests (hazel grouse Bonasa bonasia), we tested the potential of such variables to predict species occurrence and evaluated the additional benefit of LiDAR data when used in combination with traditional, sample plot-based field variables. We calibrated boosted regression trees (BRT) models for both variable sets separately and in combination, and compared the models’ accuracies. While both field-based and LiDAR models performed well, combining the two data sources improved the accuracy of the species’ habitat model. The variables retained from the two datasets held different types of information: field variables mostly quantified food resources and cover in the field and shrub layer, LiDAR variables characterized heterogeneity of vegetation structure which correlated with field variables describing the understory and ground vegetation. When combined with data on forest vegetation composition from field surveys, LiDAR provides valuable complementary information for encompassing species niches more comprehensively. Thus, LiDAR bridges the gap between precise, locally restricted field-data and coarse digital land cover information by reliably identifying habitat structure and quality across large areas.