Populist Communication in the Context of European Parliament Elections 2014

Over the last decade European democracies have been facing a challenge by the rising force of new populist movements. The emergence of the financial and sovereign debt crisis in Europe created new fertile soil for the strengthening of old-established – and the development of new – populist parties in several EU-member states. José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, emphasized his increased unease concerning these developments when he was speaking at the annual Brussels Think Tank Forum on 22. April 2013: “I am deeply concerned about the divisions that we see emerging: political extremes and populism tearing apart the political support and the social fabric that we need to deal with the crisis; […]” (Barroso 2013). Indeed, European elites seem to be increasingly worried by these recent developments which are perceived as an impending stress test of the Union and the project of European integration as a whole (Hartleb 2013). Sure enough, the results of the recent European Parliament Elections 2014 revealed a great support for populist political parties in many societies of EU-member countries. To understand the success of populist parties in Europe it is crucial to first shed light on the nature of populist party communication itself. Significant communicative differences may explain the varying success of populist parties between and within countries, while a pure demand-side approach (i.e. a focus on the preferences of the electorate) often fails to do so (Mudde 2010). The aim of this study is therefore to analyse what different types of populist communication styles emerge during the EP election campaign 2014 and under which conditions populist communication styles are selected by political parties. So far, the empirical measurement of populism has received only scarce attention (Rooduijn & Pauwels 2011). Besides, most of the existing empirical investigations of populism are single case studies (Albertazzi & McDonnell 2008) and scholars have not yet developed systematic methods to measure populism in a comparative way (Rooduijn & Pauwels 2011). This is a consequence of a lack of conceptual clarity which goes along with populism (Taggart 2000; Barr 2009; Canovan 1999) due to its contextual sensitivity. Hence, populism in Europe should be analysed in a way that clarifies the concept of populism and moreover takes into account that the Europeanization of politics has an influence on the type of populist party communication, which is intended in the course of that study.

The 2011 Swiss Elections: Introduction

Parties, the Green Liberal Party and the Conservative Democratic Party. This election thus marks an end of the trend towards a growing level of party polarization. The introduction to this special issue puts these recent developments in context, discusses some of its consequences, and highlights how the articles in this special issue shed light on understanding the voting behaviour in Switzerland.

Do Ads Add Up? The Impact of Parties' Advertisements on the Stability of Vote Choice at the Swiss National Elections 2011

Our contribution analyses the influence of campaign advertisements on vote choice in the 2011 elections to the Swiss National Council. Concretely, we ask whether and to what extent the relative exposure to party ads of a preferred party exerts a reinforcing effect on an individual's party choice. We make use of the two-wave panel structure contained in the RCS survey data of the Selects 2011 and combine it with data on advertisements in 20 important national and regional newspapers. We find that increasing exposure to the campaign of one's preferred party may reinforce individuals with strong party attachment in their initial vote choice. Yet this effect only materializes with substantial campaign duration and exposure. Additional and exploratory analyses revealed that particularly the two recently emerged parties, the GLP and BDP, might have made a slight difference by potentially persuading defecting voters with the help of their campaign.

The structure of the debate on EU integration issues. A comparative analysis of party communication in the EP 2014 elections

The results of Eurosceptic parties in the recent European parliament election provide further evidence that the “permissive consensus” on European integration blurred. This paper focuses on the structure of the debate on EU integration issues. Which EU integration issues and positions do parties put forward? Can the debate on EU integration issues be subsumed in one or several dimensions? Do they reflect national political conflicts such as the left-right and the ‘new politics’/cultural divide? Or do they form one unique or several EU-specific dimensions, e.g. national sovereignty versus integration? In order to address these questions, this paper departs from the assumption that debate on European integration is multidimensional in its nature and therefore entails a multitude of issue areas. In other words, it does not look at how socio-economic and cultural issues are related to European integration but focuses on its components, i.e. particular EU-specific policies such as EU-wide employment, environment, immigration and monetary policy. The paper departs from the cleavage theory on political di-visions and different approaches transferring them to EU politics. Two points should be noted; first, this paper does not compare the debate on European integration issues between the national level and the EU level, but whether domestic divisions are reflected at the EU level. Second, it is not concerned with the general ideo-logical profile of political parties on EU integration issues, but on EU issues that parties communicated through press releases. By doing this, the paper is concerned with the salient EU issues that parties touch upon.

Crop Yield Responses to Temperature Fluctuations in 19th Century Finland: Provincial Variation in Relation to Climate and Tree Rings

Past agricultural responses to climate variability can helps us to better understand the current and future impacts of climate change on agricultural production. We studied rye (Secale cereale) and barley (Hordeum vulgare) yield responses to temperature fluctuations in Finland during the period 1861–1913. Our analyses demonstrate the high sensitivity of non-industrialised northern agriculture to temperature anomalies. We found evidence of a strong relationship between monthly and seasonal mean temperatures and crop yields. In particular, high spring temperatures were associated with higher yields. Additionally, we tested temperature-sensitive tree-ring series for their value in indicating previous agricultural outputs. The results imply that tree-ring proxies (in particular, maximum latewood density) can provide novel material for studies of historical periods and locations where instrumentally measured climate and harvest data are not available.

The Political Candidacy of EU Migrants in their European Countries of Residence. The Case of British and Romanians Standing in Spanish Local Elections

What explains the variation in how European citizens of diverse origins are politically incorporated in the member states of residence? This paper argues that immigrant groups’ status in the host society plays an important role in political party responses to immigrants’ political participation. Drawing on the case of Romanian and British candidacies in the Spanish local elections from 2011, the paper finds that the level of competition between parties is the key mechanism for incorporating candidates from a positively/neutrally perceived group. Instead, a greater level of ethnic diversity encourages the incorporation of candidates from the negatively perceived group. To demonstrate this, the paper uses an original data-set with the Romanian and British candidates in a large number of Spanish localities.

Campaign strategies at the Swiss National Elections 2015: Nationalization, Coordination, and Personalization

This research note examines parties’ campaign strategies in the 2015 Swiss elections. We base our analyses on a collection of more than 5000 party advertisements, which were published in the forefront of the national elections in more than 50 daily and weekly national and cantonal print media. By comparing the amount of party and candidate ads, as well as the content and nature of the political advertisements, we explore the degree of professionalization of electoral campaigns in the most recent federal elections in terms of nationalization, coordination and personalization. First results show that although national campaign coordination exists, Swiss elections are to a considerable extent still cantonal and personal affairs.

Tribalism as a Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence from Voting in the 2007 Kenyan Elections

Although many studies find that voting in Africa approximates an ethnic census in that voting is primarily along ethnic lines, hardly any of the studies have sought to explain ethnic voting following a rational choice framework. Using data of voter opinions from a survey conducted two weeks before the December 2007 Kenyan elections, we find that the expected benefits associated with a win by each of the presidential candidates varied significantly across voters from different ethnic groups. We hypothesize that decision to participate in the elections was influenced by the expected benefits as per the minimax-regret voting model. We test the predictions of this model using data of voter turnout in the December 2007 elections and find that turnout across ethnic groups varied systematically with expected benefits. The results suggest that individuals participated in the elections primarily to avoid the maximum regret should a candidate from another ethnic group win. The results therefore offer credence to the minimax regret model as proposed by Ferejohn and Fiorina (1974) and refute the Downsian expected utility model.

The Relationship of Provincial Economic Level and Child Injury Mortality in Thailand: A Cross-Sectional Analysis in a Middle Income Country

The objective of this cross-sectional study was to examine the relationship of provincial economic development indices with incidences of child injury mortality in Thailand from 1999 - 2001. All injury deaths among children age 1-14 years were included. The independent variables included gross provincial product per capita (GPP/c), poverty and inequality indices, material and social deprivation indices, population in rural/ urban areas, and migration. Due to multicollinearity of such variables, the 76 provinces were categorized by GPP/c quartile, and means of overall injury, drowning, and transport-related mortality rates were compared among quartile groups. Spearman’s rho correlation between GPP/c and injury mortality rates was also performed. Finally, factor analysis was employed to create a set of factors to be treated as uncorrelated variables and stepwise multiple regression was carried out for the effects of the factors on injury mortality rates. A significant direct relationship was observed between GPP/c and overall injury mortality among children age 1-4 years, and 10-14 year-olds of both genders. Drowning was the main cause of this relationship among children age 1-4 years, and transport-related injury was the principle cause among children age 10-14 years. Conversely, provinces with lower GPP/c experienced higher injury mortality rates among school-age children 5-9 years old for both genders, mostly due to drowning. Factor analysis, and multiple regression results confirmed the relationships between economic development and injury mortality rates. These findings revealed that economic development had an adverse impact on injury-related mortality among children 1 to 4 and 10 to14 in Thailand.

Las políticas sociales de familia en la Provincia de Misiones. Diagnóstico de la situación provincial en el período 1985–2005. 16H230

El problema a estudiar desde este proyecto de investigación tuvo que ver con la existencia de Políticas Sociales dirigidas a la familia puestas o no en marcha en la provincia de Misiones en las últimas dos décadas, lo que incluyó considerar por un lado los organismos responsables de las mismas y por el otro a quienes iban dirigidas. El interrogante sobre el cual se instaló el planteo era: ¿existieron en o para Misiones políticas sociales que contemplaran a la familia como objeto de su accionar? Para ello fue necesario efectuar un encuadre teórico al respecto, el que se relacionó con los procesos históricos, sociales y políticos atravesados por la región. Se tuvo en cuenta que la conformación de los núcleos familiares en la provincia de Misiones tiene que ver con un proceso de ocupación territorial que incluyó corrientes migratorias extranjeras que darían a la provincia un panorama especial, reconociéndose en ella lo que dio en llamarse la formación de un “verdadero crisol de razas”3. Este proceso se inicia en la existencia de los grupos guaraníes4, ocupantes legítimos de la tierra hasta que dicho sistema cultural se vio interrumpido en el siglo XVI con la penetración colonial europea. Se produce la primera modificación en las formas de vida social con la instauración de las Misiones Jesuíticas, las que conformaban un sistema social, económico y político en sí mismas. Tomando los datos editados por el SIEMPRO en 1998 5 se pueden distinguir tres momentos o etapas en la sucesión de corrientes migratorias en Misiones: una primera llamada de Colonización 6, donde la responsabilidad estaba centrada en la esfera oficial. En la misma la finalidad política era proteger las fronteras a través del aumento de población por lo cual se estimuló la inmigración de colonos a quienes se les adjudicaba tierras mensuradas. Estos colonos extranjeros iniciaron una economía de subsistencia basada en el uso de mano de obra familiar. Durante este período se asentaron una gran cantidad de productores – pequeños y medianos – que dieron origen a una figura característica en la estructura agraria misionera: la pequeña explotación familiar.