Application of operations research techniques to improve efficiency in the emergency department

The main aim of this thesis is to analyse and optimise a public hospital Emergency Department. The Emergency Department (ED) is a complex system with limited resources and a high demand for these resources. Adding to the complexity is the stochastic nature of almost every element and characteristic in the ED. The interaction with other functional areas also complicates the system as these areas have a huge impact on the ED and the ED is powerless to change them. Therefore it is imperative that OR be applied to the ED to improve the performance within the constraints of the system. The main characteristics of the system to optimise included tardiness, adherence to waiting time targets, access block and length of stay. A validated and verified simulation model was built to model the real life system. This enabled detailed analysis of resources and flow without disruption to the actual ED. A wide range of different policies for the ED and a variety of resources were able to be investigated. Of particular interest was the number and type of beds in the ED and also the shift times of physicians. One point worth noting was that neither of these resources work in isolation and for optimisation of the system both resources need to be investigated in tandem. The ED was likened to a flow shop scheduling problem with the patients and beds being synonymous with the jobs and machines typically found in manufacturing problems. This enabled an analytic scheduling approach. Constructive heuristics were developed to reactively schedule the system in real time and these were able to improve the performance of the system. Metaheuristics that optimised the system were also developed and analysed. An innovative hybrid Simulated Annealing and Tabu Search algorithm was developed that out-performed both simulated annealing and tabu search algorithms by combining some of their features. The new algorithm achieves a more optimal solution and does so in a shorter time.

Managing large collections of business process models - Current techniques and challenges

Nowadays, business process management is an important approach for managing organizations from an operational perspective. As a consequence, it is common to see organizations develop collections of hundreds or even thousands of business process models. Such large collections of process models bring new challenges and provide new opportunities, as the knowledge that they encapsulate requires to be properly managed. Therefore, a variety of techniques for managing large collections of business process models is being developed. The goal of this paper is to provide an overview of the management techniques that currently exist, as well as the open research challenges that they pose.

Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Integrating collaborative filtering and search-based techniques for personalized online product recommendation

The existing Collaborative Filtering (CF) technique that has been widely applied by e-commerce sites requires a large amount of ratings data to make meaningful recommendations. It is not directly applicable for recommending products that are not frequently purchased by users, such as cars and houses, as it is difficult to collect rating data for such products from the users. Many of the e-commerce sites for infrequently purchased products are still using basic search-based techniques whereby the products that match with the attributes given in the target user's query are retrieved and recommended to the user. However, search-based recommenders cannot provide personalized recommendations. For different users, the recommendations will be the same if they provide the same query regardless of any difference in their online navigation behaviour. This paper proposes to integrate collaborative filtering and search-based techniques to provide personalized recommendations for infrequently purchased products. Two different techniques are proposed, namely CFRRobin and CFAg Query. Instead of using the target user's query to search for products as normal search based systems do, the CFRRobin technique uses the products in which the target user's neighbours have shown interest as queries to retrieve relevant products, and then recommends to the target user a list of products by merging and ranking the returned products using the Round Robin method. The CFAg Query technique uses the products that the user's neighbours have shown interest in to derive an aggregated query, which is then used to retrieve products to recommend to the target user. Experiments conducted on a real e-commerce dataset show that both the proposed techniques CFRRobin and CFAg Query perform better than the standard Collaborative Filtering (CF) and the Basic Search (BS) approaches, which are widely applied by the current e-commerce applications. The CFRRobin and CFAg Query approaches also outperform the e- isting query expansion (QE) technique that was proposed for recommending infrequently purchased products.

Educational stress scale for adolescents : development, validity, and reliability with Chinese students

This article describes the development and initial validation of a new instrument to measure academic stress—the Educational Stress Scale for Adolescents (ESSA). A series of cross-sectional questionnaire surveys were conducted with more than 2,000 Chinese adolescents to examine the psychometric properties. The final 16-item ESSA contains five latent variables: Pressure from study, Workload, Worry about grades, Self-expectation, and Despondency, which together explain 64% of the total item variance. Scale scores showed adequate internal consistency, 2-week test–retest reliability, and satisfactory concurrent validity. A confirmatory factor analysis suggested the proposed factor model fits well in a different sample. For researchers who have a particular interest in academic stress among adolescents, the ESSA promises to be a useful tool.

A prospective study investigating the impact of school belonging factors on negative affect in adolescents

School belonging, measured as a unidimensional construct, is an important predictor of negative affective problems in adolescents, including depression and anxiety symptoms. A recent study found that one such measure, the Psychological Sense of School Membership (PSSM) scale, actually comprises three factors: Caring Relations, Acceptance, and Rejection. We explored the relations of these factors with negative affect in a sample of 504 Australian grade 7 and 8 students who completed the PSSM and Children’s Depression Inventory (CDI) at three time points. Each school belonging factor contributed to the prediction of negative affect in cross-sectional analyses. Scores on the Acceptance factor predicted subsequent negative affect for boys and girls, even controlling for prior negative affect. For girls, the Rejection factor was also significant in the prospective analysis. These findings have implications for the design of interventions and are further confirmation that school belonging should be considered a multidimensional construct.

Application of Geographic Modeling Techniques to Quantify Spatial Access to Health Services Before and After an Acute Cardiac Event: The Cardiac ARIA Project

Background: Access to cardiac services is essential for appropriate implementation of evidence-based therapies to improve outcomes. The Cardiac Accessibility and Remoteness Index for Australia (Cardiac ARIA) aimed to derive an objective, geographic measure reflecting access to cardiac services. Methods: An expert panel defined an evidence-based clinical pathway. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), a numeric/alpha index was developed at two points along the continuum of care. The acute category (numeric) measured the time from the emergency call to arrival at an appropriate medical facility via road ambulance. The aftercare category (alpha) measured access to four basic services (family doctor, pharmacy, cardiac rehabilitation, and pathology services) when a patient returned to their community. Results: The numeric index ranged from 1 (access to principle referral center with cardiac catheterization service ≤ 1 hour) to 8 (no ambulance service, > 3 hours to medical facility, air transport required). The alphabetic index ranged from A (all 4 services available within 1 hour drive-time) to E (no services available within 1 hour). 13.9 million (71%) Australians resided within Cardiac ARIA 1A locations (hospital with cardiac catheterization laboratory and all aftercare within 1 hour). Those outside Cardiac 1A were over-represented by people aged over 65 years (32%) and Indigenous people (60%). Conclusion: The Cardiac ARIA index demonstrated substantial inequity in access to cardiac services in Australia. This methodology can be used to inform cardiology health service planning and the methodology could be applied to other common disease states within other regions of the world.

Semantics-based web service discovery using information retrieval techniques

This paper demonstrates an experimental study that examines the accuracy of various information retrieval techniques for Web service discovery. The main goal of this research is to evaluate algorithms for semantic web service discovery. The evaluation is comprehensively benchmarked using more than 1,700 real-world WSDL documents from INEX 2010 Web Service Discovery Track dataset. For automatic search, we successfully use Latent Semantic Analysis and BM25 to perform Web service discovery. Moreover, we provide linking analysis which automatically links possible atomic Web services to meet the complex requirements of users. Our fusion engine recommends a final result to users. Our experiments show that linking analysis can improve the overall performance of Web service discovery. We also find that keyword-based search can quickly return results but it has limitation of understanding users’ goals.

The resourceful adolescent project : building psychological resilience in adolescents and their parents

"The model of adolescent depression underlying the Resourceful Adolescent Project (RAP) suggests that adolescent depression and suicide result from a combination of some or all of three interrelating factors: (a) deficits in adolescent psychological wellbeing and coping resources; (b) escalating or chronic family conflict; and (c) depressive adolescent thoughts, feelings and behaviour. This overview of the activities of RAP outlines the need for the project, the benefits of early intervention in preventing adolescent depression, and the empirical and theoretical bases of the programs used in the project. The programs for adolescents and for their parents, their efficacy and the future directions of RAP are also discussed." -- from Libraries Australia

Self-presentation and underachievement among young adolescents identified as gifted

Academically gifted students are recognised as possessing considerable achievement potential. Yet many gifted students fail to perform at a level commensurate with their ability. This phenomenon is known as underachievement and may have far-reaching personal and social costs. Underachievement is particularly prevalent during early adolescence, between the ages of 10 to 14 years, when declining levels of academic achievement are often apparent. Grouping for instructional purposes is advocated as a means of reducing underachievement for gifted students by providing opportunities for like-minded and like-ability individuals to learn together. Despite this, some gifted students continue to underachieve. For some, underachievement appears to be a deliberate choice making them a population of learners at-risk. This multiple case study examines the relationship between self-presentation and underachievement as experienced by three gifted adolescents. It reveals how students perceived and explained the discrepancy between their ability and performance. Further, the study identifies those self-presentation strategies adopted in response to underachievement. Findings may assist parents and educators to provide greater support for gifted adolescents.

Weighted LDA techniques for I-vector based speaker verification

This paper introduces the Weighted Linear Discriminant Analysis (WLDA) technique, based upon the weighted pairwise Fisher criterion, for the purposes of improving i-vector speaker verification in the presence of high intersession variability. By taking advantage of the speaker discriminative information that is available in the distances between pairs of speakers clustered in the development i-vector space, the WLDA technique is shown to provide an improvement in speaker verification performance over traditional Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) approaches. A similar approach is also taken to extend the recently developed Source Normalised LDA (SNLDA) into Weighted SNLDA (WSNLDA) which, similarly, shows an improvement in speaker verification performance in both matched and mismatched enrolment/verification conditions. Based upon the results presented within this paper using the NIST 2008 Speaker Recognition Evaluation dataset, we believe that both WLDA and WSNLDA are viable as replacement techniques to improve the performance of LDA and SNLDA-based i-vector speaker verification.