975 resultados para predictive value


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The accurate estimation of total daily energy expenditure (TEE) in chronic kidney patients is essential to allow the provision of nutritional requirements; however, it remains a challenge to collect actual physical activity and resting energy expenditure in maintenance dialysis patients. The direct measurement of TEE by direct calorimetry or doubly labeled water cannot be used easily so that, in clinical practice, TEE is usually estimated from resting energy expenditure and physical activity. Prediction equations may also be used to estimate resting energy expenditure; however, their use has been poorly documented in dialysis patients. Recently, a new system called SenseWear Armband (BodyMedia, Pittsburgh, PA) was developed to assess TEE, but so far no data have been published in chronic kidney disease patients. The aim of this review is to describe new measurements of energy expenditure and physical activity in chronic kidney disease patients.

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The unresolved issue of false-positive D-dimer results in the diagnostic workup of pulmonary embolism Pulmonary embolism (PE) remains a difficult diagnosis as it lacks specific symptoms and clinical signs. After the determination of the pretest PE probability by a validated clinical score, D-dimers (DD) is the initial blood test in the majority of patients whose probability is low or intermediate. The low specificity of DD results in a high number of false-positives that then require thoracic angio-CT. A new clinical decision rule, called the Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out criteria (PERC), identifies patients at such low risk that PE can be safely ruled-out without a DD test. Its safety has been confirmed in US emergency departments, but retrospective European studies showed that it would lead to 5-7% of undiagnosed PE. Alternative strategies are needed to reduce the proportion of false-positive DD results.

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Hypoxia, a condition of insufficient oxygen availability to support metabolism, occurs when the vascular supply is interrupted, as in stroke. The identification of the hypoxic and viable tissue in stroke as compared with irreversible lesions (necrosis) has relevant implications for the treatment of ischemic stroke. Traditionally, imaging by positron emission tomography (PET), using 15O-based radiotracers, allowed the measurement of perfusion and oxygen extraction in stroke, providing important insights in its pathophysiology. However, these multitracer evaluations are of limited applicability in clinical settings. More recently, specific tracers have been developed, which accumulate with an inverse relationship to oxygen concentration and thus allow visualizing the hypoxic tissue non invasively. These belong to two main groups: nitroimidazoles, and among these the 18F-Fluoroimidazole (18F-FMISO) is the most widely used, and the copper-based tracers, represented mainly by Cu-ATSM. While these tracers have been at first developed and tested in order to image hypoxia in tumors, they have also shown promising results in stroke models and preliminary clinical studies in patients with cardiovascular disorders, allowing the detection of hypoxic tissue and the prediction of the extent of subsequent ischemia and clinical outcome. These tracers have therefore the potential to select an appropriate subgroup of patients who could benefit from a hypoxia-directed treatment and provide prognosis relevant imaging. The molecular imaging of hypoxia made important progress over the last decade and has a potential for integration into the diagnostic and therapeutic workup of patients with ischemic stroke.

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BACKGROUND: Growing social inequities have made it important for general practitioners to verify if patients can afford treatment and procedures. Incorporating social conditions into clinical decision-making allows general practitioners to address mismatches between patients' health-care needs and financial resources. OBJECTIVES: Identify a screening question to, indirectly, rule out patients' social risk of forgoing health care for economic reasons, and estimate prevalence of forgoing health care and the influence of physicians' attitudes toward deprivation. DESIGN: Multicenter cross-sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-seven general practitioners working in the French-speaking part of Switzerland enrolled a random sample of patients attending their private practices. MAIN MEASURES: Patients who had forgone health care were defined as those reporting a household member (including themselves) having forgone treatment for economic reasons during the previous 12 months, through a self-administered questionnaire. Patients were also asked about education and income levels, self-perceived social position, and deprivation levels. KEY RESULTS: Overall, 2,026 patients were included in the analysis; 10.7% (CI95% 9.4-12.1) reported a member of their household to have forgone health care during the 12 previous months. The question "Did you have difficulties paying your household bills during the last 12 months" performed better in identifying patients at risk of forgoing health care than a combination of four objective measures of socio-economic status (gender, age, education level, and income) (R(2) = 0.184 vs. 0.083). This question effectively ruled out that patients had forgone health care, with a negative predictive value of 96%. Furthermore, for physicians who felt powerless in the face of deprivation, we observed an increase in the odds of patients forgoing health care of 1.5 times. CONCLUSION: General practitioners should systematically evaluate the socio-economic status of their patients. Asking patients whether they experience any difficulties in paying their bills is an effective means of identifying patients who might forgo health care.

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According to the hypothesis of Traub, also known as the 'formula of Traub', postmortem values of glucose and lactate found in the cerebrospinal fluid or vitreous humor are considered indicators of antemortem blood glucose levels. However, because the lactate concentration increases in the vitreous and cerebrospinal fluid after death, some authors postulated that using the sum value to estimate antemortem blood glucose levels could lead to an overestimation of the cases of glucose metabolic disorders with fatal outcomes, such as diabetic ketoacidosis. The aim of our study, performed on 470 consecutive forensic cases, was to ascertain the advantages of the sum value to estimate antemortem blood glucose concentrations and, consequently, to rule out fatal diabetic ketoacidosis as the cause of death. Other biochemical parameters, such as blood 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate, acetoacetate, acetone, glycated haemoglobin and urine glucose levels, were also determined. In addition, postmortem native CT scan, autopsy, histology, neuropathology and toxicology were performed to confirm diabetic ketoacidosis as the cause of death. According to our results, the sum value does not add any further information for the estimation of antemortem blood glucose concentration. The vitreous glucose concentration appears to be the most reliable marker to estimate antemortem hyperglycaemia and, along with the determination of other biochemical markers (such as blood acetone and 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate, urine glucose and glycated haemoglobin), to confirm diabetic ketoacidosis as the cause of death.

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Comment on: Prospective Studies Collaboration, Whitlock G, Lewington S et al. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet. 2009;373(9669):1083-96. PMID: 19299006.

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BACKGROUND: Screening for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is recommended as part of the preoperative assessment of obese patients scheduled for bariatric surgery. The objective of this study was to compare the sensitivity of oximetry alone versus portable polygraphy in the preoperative screening for OSA. METHODS: Polygraphy (type III portable monitor) and oximetry data recorded as part of the preoperative assessment before bariatric surgery from 68 consecutive patients were reviewed. We compared the sensitivity of 3% or 4% desaturation index (oximetry alone) with the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI; polygraphy) to diagnose OSA and classify the patients as normal (<10 events per hour), mild to moderate (10-30 events per hour), or severe (>30 events per hour). RESULTS: Using AHI, the prevalence of OSA (AHI > 10 per hour) was 57.4%: 16.2% of the patients were classified as severe, 41.2% as mild to moderate, and 42.6% as normal. Using 3% desaturation index, 22.1% were classified as severe, 47.1% as mild to moderate, and 30.9% as normal. With 4% desaturation index, 17.6% were classified as severe, 32.4% as mild, and 50% as normal. Overall, 3% desaturation index compared to AHI yielded a 95% negative predictive value to rule out OSA (AHI > 10 per hour) and a 100% sensitivity (0.73 positive predictive value) to detect severe OSA (AHI > 30 per hour). CONCLUSIONS: Using oximetry with 3% desaturation index as a screening tool for OSA could allow us to rule out significant OSA in almost a third of the patients and to detect patients with severe OSA. This cheap and widely available technique could accelerate preoperative work-up of these patients.

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Prognosis of early breast cancer patients is significantly improved with the use of adjuvant therapies. Various guidelines have been proposed to select patients who will derive the most benefit from such treatments. However, classifications have limited usefulness in subsets of patients such as those with node negative breast cancer. The 2007 St. Paul de Vence Clinical Practice Recommendations proposed to consider adjuvant therapy in accordance with the 10-year relapse-free survival reduction estimated by Adjuvant! Online. However, many limitations remain regarding the use of Adjuvant! Online. Among them, adverse prognostic and/or predictive factors such as vascular invasion, mitotic activity, progesterone receptor negativity, and HER-2 expression are not incorporated in the routine clinical decision process. Our group has therefore issued guidelines based on the consideration of both Adjuvant! Online calculations and the prognostic and/or predictive effects of these markers. In addition, web-accessible comprehensive tables summarizing these recommendations are provided.

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This study aimed at identifying clinical factors for predicting hematologic toxicity after radioimmunotherapy with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or (131)I-tositumomab in clinical practice. Hematologic data were available from 14 non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients treated with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and 18 who received (131)I-tositumomab. The percentage baseline at nadir and 4 wk post nadir and the time to nadir were selected as the toxicity indicators for both platelets and neutrophils. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors (P < 0.05) of each indicator. For both platelets and neutrophils, pooled and separate analyses of (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and (131)I-tositumomab data yielded the time elapsed since the last chemotherapy as the only significant predictor of the percentage baseline at nadir. The extent of bone marrow involvement was not a significant factor in this study, possibly because of the short time elapsed since the last chemotherapy of the 7 patients with bone marrow involvement. Because both treatments were designed to deliver a comparable bone marrow dose, this factor also was not significant. None of the 14 factors considered was predictive of the time to nadir. The R(2) value for the model predicting percentage baseline at nadir was 0.60 for platelets and 0.40 for neutrophils. This model predicted the platelet and neutrophil toxicity grade to within ±1 for 28 and 30 of the 32 patients, respectively. For the 7 patients predicted with grade I thrombocytopenia, 6 of whom had actual grade I-II, dosing might be increased to improve treatment efficacy. The elapsed time since the last chemotherapy can be used to predict hematologic toxicity and customize the current dosing method in radioimmunotherapy.

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We studied whether readiness to change predicts alcohol consumption (drinks per day) 3 months later in 267 medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use. We used 3 readiness to change measures: a 1 to 10 visual analog scale (VAS) and two factors of the Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale: Perception of Problems (PP) and Taking Action (TA). Subjects with the highest level of VAS-measured readiness consumed significantly fewer drinks 3 months later [Incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57 (0.36, 0.91) highest vs. lowest tertile]. Greater PP was associated with more drinking [IRR (95%CI): 1.94 (1.02, 3.68) third vs. lowest quartile]. Greater TA scores were associated with less drinking [IRR (95%CI): 0.42 (0.23, 0.78) highest vs. lowest quartile]. Perception of Problems' association with more drinking may reflect severity rather than an aspect of readiness associated with ability to change; high levels of Taking Action appear to predict less drinking. Although assessing readiness to change may have clinical utility, assessing the patient's planned actions may have more predictive value for future improvement in alcohol consumption.

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BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. METHODS: A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. RESULTS: Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. CONCLUSIONS: We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

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BACKGROUND: Invasive fungal infections (IFIs) are life-threatening complications in patients with hemato-oncological malignancies, and early diagnosis is crucial for outcome. The compound 1,3-β-D-glucan (BG), a cell wall component of most fungal species, can be detected in blood during IFI. Four commercial BG antigenemia assays are available (Fungitell, Fungitec-G, Wako, and Maruha). This meta-analysis from the Third European Conference on Infections in Leukemia (ECIL-3) assessed the performance of BG assays for the diagnosis of IFI in hemato-oncological patients. METHODS: Studies reporting the performance of BG antigenemia assays for the diagnosis of IFI (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer and Mycoses Study Group criteria) in hemato-oncological patients were identified. The analysis was focused on high-quality cohort studies with exclusion of case-control studies. Meta-analysis was performed by conventional meta-analytical pooling and bivariate analysis. RESULTS: Six cohort studies were included (1771 adult patients with 414 IFIs of which 215 were proven or probable). Similar performance was observed among the different BG assays. For the cutoff recommended by the manufacturer, the diagnostic performance of the BG assay in proven or probable IFI was better with 2 consecutive positive test results (diagnostic odds ratio for 2 consecutive vs one single positive results, 111.8 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 38.6-324.1] vs 16.3 [95% CI, 6.5-40.8], respectively; heterogeneity index for 2 consecutive vs one single positive results, 0% vs 72.6%, respectively). For 2 consecutive tests, sensitivity and specificity were 49.6% (95% CI, 34.0%-65.3%) and 98.9% (95% CI, 97.4%-99.5%), respectively. Estimated positive and negative predictive values for an IFI prevalence of 10% were 83.5% and 94.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Different BG assays have similar accuracy for the diagnosis of IFI in hemato-oncological patients. Two consecutive positive antigenemia assays have very high specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Because sensitivity is low, the test needs to be combined with clinical, radiological, and microbiological findings.

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Mutations of the Fms-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) can be detected in a significant number of acute myeloid leukemias (AML). Seventy-five cases of acute myeloid leukemia were evaluated for FLT3-internal tandem duplications (ITD) by polymerase chain reaction. Paraffin-embedded formalin-fixed trephine biopsies of these cases were evaluated for expression of phosphorylated signal transducer and activator of transcription 1 (pSTAT1), pSTAT3, and pSTAT5. Specific expression of pSTAT5 was proven in leukemic blasts in situ by double staining with a blast-specific marker. Expression of pSTAT5 in > or =1% of blasts was highly predictive of FLT3-ITD. Neither expression of pSTAT1 nor pSTAT3 were associated with FLT3 mutations. Altogether we conclude that pSTAT5 expression can precisely be assessed by immunohistochemistry in routinely processed bone marrow trephines, STAT5 is highly likely the preferred second messenger of FLT3-mediated signaling in AML, and expression of pSTAT5 is predictive of FLT3-ITD.

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BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

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Current American Academy of Neurology (AAN) guidelines for outcome prediction in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest (CA) have been validated before the therapeutic hypothermia era (TH). We undertook this study to verify the prognostic value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in the TH setting. A total of 111 consecutive comatose survivors of CA treated with TH were prospectively studied over a 3-year period. Neurological examination, electroencephalography (EEG), and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) were performed immediately after TH, at normothermia and off sedation. Neurological recovery was assessed at 3 to 6 months, using Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Three clinical variables, assessed within 72 hours after CA, showed higher false-positive mortality predictions as compared with the AAN guidelines: incomplete brainstem reflexes recovery (4% vs 0%), myoclonus (7% vs 0%), and absent motor response to pain (24% vs 0%). Furthermore, unreactive EEG background was incompatible with good long-term neurological recovery (CPC 1-2) and strongly associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio for death, 15.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.3-71.9). The presence of at least 2 independent predictors out of 4 (incomplete brainstem reflexes, myoclonus, unreactive EEG, and absent cortical SSEP) accurately predicted poor long-term neurological recovery (positive predictive value = 1.00); EEG reactivity significantly improved the prognostication. Our data show that TH may modify outcome prediction after CA, implying that some clinical features should be interpreted with more caution in this setting as compared with the AAN guidelines. EEG background reactivity is useful in determining the prognosis after CA treated with TH.