961 resultados para predictive performance


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During the past decade, there has been a dramatic increase by postsecondary institutions in providing academic programs and course offerings in a multitude of formats and venues (Biemiller, 2009; Kucsera & Zimmaro, 2010; Lang, 2009; Mangan, 2008). Strategies pertaining to reapportionment of course-delivery seat time have been a major facet of these institutional initiatives; most notably, within many open-door 2-year colleges. Often, these enrollment-management decisions are driven by the desire to increase market-share, optimize the usage of finite facility capacity, and contain costs, especially during these economically turbulent times. So, while enrollments have surged to the point where nearly one in three 18-to-24 year-old U.S. undergraduates are community college students (Pew Research Center, 2009), graduation rates, on average, still remain distressingly low (Complete College America, 2011). Among the learning-theory constructs related to seat-time reapportionment efforts is the cognitive phenomenon commonly referred to as the spacing effect, the degree to which learning is enhanced by a series of shorter, separated sessions as opposed to fewer, more massed episodes. This ex post facto study explored whether seat time in a postsecondary developmental-level algebra course is significantly related to: course success; course-enrollment persistence; and, longitudinally, the time to successfully complete a general-education-level mathematics course. Hierarchical logistic regression and discrete-time survival analysis were used to perform a multi-level, multivariable analysis of a student cohort (N = 3,284) enrolled at a large, multi-campus, urban community college. The subjects were retrospectively tracked over a 2-year longitudinal period. The study found that students in long seat-time classes tended to withdraw earlier and more often than did their peers in short seat-time classes (p < .05). Additionally, a model comprised of nine statistically significant covariates (all with p-values less than .01) was constructed. However, no longitudinal seat-time group differences were detected nor was there sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that seat time was predictive of developmental-level course success. A principal aim of this study was to demonstrate—to educational leaders, researchers, and institutional-research/business-intelligence professionals—the advantages and computational practicability of survival analysis, an underused but more powerful way to investigate changes in students over time.

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Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

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Fibre Reinforced Concretes are innovative composite materials whose applications are growing considerably nowadays. Being composite materials, their performance depends on the mechanical properties of both components, fibre and matrix and, above all, on the interface. The variables to account for the mechanical characterization of the material, could be proper of the material itself, i.e. fibre and concrete type, or external factors, i.e. environmental conditions. The first part of the research presented is focused on the experimental and numerical characterization of the interface properties and short term response of fibre reinforced concretes with macro-synthetic fibers. The experimental database produced represents the starting point for numerical models calibration and validation with two principal purposes: the calibration of a local constitutive law and calibration and validation of a model predictive of the whole material response. In the perspective of the design of sustainable admixtures, the optimization of the matrix of cement-based fibre reinforced composites is realized with partial substitution of the cement amount. In the second part of the research, the effect of time dependent phenomena on MSFRCs response is studied. An extended experimental campaign of creep tests is performed analysing the effect of time and temperature variations in different loading conditions. On the results achieved, a numerical model able to account for the viscoelastic nature of both concrete and reinforcement, together with the environmental conditions, is calibrated with the LDPM theory. Different type of regression models are also elaborated correlating the mechanical properties investigated, bond strength and residual flexural behaviour, regarding the short term analysis and creep coefficient on time, for the time dependent behaviour, with the variable investigated. The experimental studies carried out emphasize the several aspects influencing the material mechanical performance allowing also the identification of those properties that the numerical approach should consider in order to be reliable.

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In this thesis, a tube-based Distributed Economic Predictive Control (DEPC) scheme is presented for a group of dynamically coupled linear subsystems. These subsystems are components of a large scale system and control inputs are computed based on optimizing a local economic objective. Each subsystem is interacting with its neighbors by sending its future reference trajectory, at each sampling time. It solves a local optimization problem in parallel, based on the received future reference trajectories of the other subsystems. To ensure recursive feasibility and a performance bound, each subsystem is constrained to not deviate too much from its communicated reference trajectory. This difference between the plan trajectory and the communicated one is interpreted as a disturbance on the local level. Then, to ensure the satisfaction of both state and input constraints, they are tightened by considering explicitly the effect of these local disturbances. The proposed approach averages over all possible disturbances, handles tightened state and input constraints, while satisfies the compatibility constraints to guarantee that the actual trajectory lies within a certain bound in the neighborhood of the reference one. Each subsystem is optimizing a local arbitrary economic objective function in parallel while considering a local terminal constraint to guarantee recursive feasibility. In this framework, economic performance guarantees for a tube-based distributed predictive control (DPC) scheme are developed rigorously. It is presented that the closed-loop nominal subsystem has a robust average performance bound locally which is no worse than that of a local robust steady state. Since a robust algorithm is applying on the states of the real (with disturbances) subsystems, this bound can be interpreted as an average performance result for the real closed-loop system. To this end, we present our outcomes on local and global performance, illustrated by a numerical example.

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Students perceive online courses differently than traditional courses. Negative perceptions can lead to unfavourable learning outcomes including decreased motivation and persistence. Throughout this review, a broad range of factors that affect performance and satisfaction within the online learning environment for adult learners will be examined including learning outcomes, instructional design and learner characteristics, followed by suggestions for further research, and concluding with implications for online learning pertinent to administrators, instructors, course designers and students. Online learning may not be appropriate for every student. Identifying particular characteristics that contribute to online success versus failure may aid in predicting possible learning outcomes and save students from enrolling in online courses if this type of learning environment is not appropriate for them. Furthermore, knowing these learner attributes may assist faculty in designing quality online courses to meet students’ needs. Adequate instructional methods, support, course structure and design can facilitate student performance and satisfaction.

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The idea behind the project is to develop a methodology for analyzing and developing techniques for the diagnosis and the prediction of the state of charge and health of lithium-ion batteries for automotive applications. For lithium-ion batteries, residual functionality is measured in terms of state of health; however, this value cannot be directly associated with a measurable value, so it must be estimated. The development of the algorithms is based on the identification of the causes of battery degradation, in order to model and predict the trend. Therefore, models have been developed that are able to predict the electrical, thermal and aging behavior. In addition to the model, it was necessary to develop algorithms capable of monitoring the state of the battery, online and offline. This was possible with the use of algorithms based on Kalman filters, which allow the estimation of the system status in real time. Through machine learning algorithms, which allow offline analysis of battery deterioration using a statistical approach, it is possible to analyze information from the entire fleet of vehicles. Both systems work in synergy in order to achieve the best performance. Validation was performed with laboratory tests on different batteries and under different conditions. The development of the model allowed to reduce the time of the experimental tests. Some specific phenomena were tested in the laboratory, and the other cases were artificially generated.

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Nowadays, the spreading of the air pollution crisis enhanced by greenhouse gases emission is leading to the worsening of global warming. Recently, several metropolitan cities introduced Zero-Emissions Zones where the use of the Internal Combustion Engine is forbidden to reduce localized pollutants emissions. This is particularly problematic for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, which usually work in depleting mode. In order to address these issues, the present thesis presents a viable solution by exploiting vehicular connectivity to retrieve navigation data of the urban event along a selected route. The battery energy needed, in the form of a minimum State of Charge (SoC), is calculated by a Speed Profile Prediction algorithm and a Backward Vehicle Model. That value is then fed to both a Rule-Based Strategy, developed specifically for this application, and an Adaptive Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (A-ECMS). The effectiveness of this approach has been tested with a Connected Hardware-in-the-Loop (C-HiL) on a driving cycle measured on-road, stimulating the predictions with multiple re-routings. However, even if hybrid electric vehicles have been recognized as a valid solution in response to increasingly tight regulations, the reduced engine load and the repeated engine starts and stops may reduce substantially the temperature of the exhaust after-treatment system (EATS), leading to relevant issues related to pollutant emission control. In this context, electrically heated catalysts (EHCs) represent a promising solution to ensure high pollutant conversion efficiency without affecting engine efficiency and performance. This work aims at studying the advantages provided by the introduction of a predictive EHC control function for a light-duty Diesel plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) equipped with a Euro 7-oriented EATS. Based on the knowledge of future driving scenarios provided by vehicular connectivity, engine first start can be predicted and therefore an EATS pre-heating phase can be planned.

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The current dominance of African runners in long-distance running is an intriguing phenomenon that highlights the close relationship between genetics and physical performance. Many factors in the interesting interaction between genotype and phenotype (eg, high cardiorespiratory fitness, higher hemoglobin concentration, good metabolic efficiency, muscle fiber composition, enzyme profile, diet, altitude training, and psychological aspects) have been proposed in the attempt to explain the extraordinary success of these runners. Increasing evidence shows that genetics may be a determining factor in physical and athletic performance. But, could this also be true for African long-distance runners? Based on this question, this brief review proposed the role of genetic factors (mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid, the Y chromosome, and the angiotensin-converting enzyme and the alpha-actinin-3 genes) in the amazing athletic performance observed in African runners, especially the Kenyans and Ethiopians, despite their environmental constraints.

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Phase I trials use a small number of patients to define a maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and the safety of new agents. We compared data from phase I and registration trials to determine whether early trials predicted later safety and final dose. We searched the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) website for drugs approved in nonpediatric cancers (January 1990-October 2012). The recommended phase II dose (R2PD) and toxicities from phase I were compared with doses and safety in later trials. In 62 of 85 (73%) matched trials, the dose from the later trial was within 20% of the RP2D. In a multivariable analysis, phase I trials of targeted agents were less predictive of the final approved dose (OR, 0.2 for adopting ± 20% of the RP2D for targeted vs. other classes; P = 0.025). Of the 530 clinically relevant toxicities in later trials, 70% (n = 374) were described in phase I. A significant relationship (P = 0.0032) between increasing the number of patients in phase I (up to 60) and the ability to describe future clinically relevant toxicities was observed. Among 28,505 patients in later trials, the death rate that was related to drug was 1.41%. In conclusion, dosing based on phase I trials was associated with a low toxicity-related death rate in later trials. The ability to predict relevant toxicities correlates with the number of patients on the initial phase I trial. The final dose approved was within 20% of the RP2D in 73% of assessed trials.

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A rapid, sensitive and specific method for quantifying propylthiouracil in human plasma using methylthiouracil as the internal standard (IS) is described. The analyte and the IS were extracted from plasma by liquid-liquid extraction using an organic solvent (ethyl acetate). The extracts were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) in negative mode (ES-). Chromatography was performed using a Phenomenex Gemini C18 5μm analytical column (4.6mm×150mm i.d.) and a mobile phase consisting of methanol/water/acetonitrile (40/40/20, v/v/v)+0.1% of formic acid. For propylthiouracil and I.S., the optimized parameters of the declustering potential, collision energy and collision exit potential were -60 (V), -26 (eV) and -5 (V), respectively. The method had a chromatographic run time of 2.5min and a linear calibration curve over the range 20-5000ng/mL. The limit of quantification was 20ng/mL. The stability tests indicated no significant degradation. This HPLC-MS/MS procedure was used to assess the bioequivalence of two propylthiouracil 100mg tablet formulations in healthy volunteers of both sexes in fasted and fed state. The geometric mean and 90% confidence interval CI of Test/Reference percent ratios were, without and with food, respectively: 109.28% (103.63-115.25%) and 115.60% (109.03-122.58%) for Cmax, 103.31% (100.74-105.96%) and 103.40% (101.03-105.84) for AUClast. This method offers advantages over those previously reported, in terms of both a simple liquid-liquid extraction without clean-up procedures, as well as a faster run time (2.5min). The LOQ of 20ng/mL is well suited for pharmacokinetic studies. The assay performance results indicate that the method is precise and accurate enough for the routine determination of the propylthiouracil in human plasma. The test formulation with and without food was bioequivalent to reference formulation. Food administration increased the Tmax and decreased the bioavailability (Cmax and AUC).

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The treatment of subglottic stenosis in children remains a challenge for the otorhinolaryngologist, and may involve both endoscopic and open surgery. To report the experience of two tertiary facilities in the treatment of acquired subglottic stenosis in children with balloon laryngoplasty, and to identify predictive factors for success of the technique and its complications. Descriptive, prospective study of children diagnosed with acquired subglottic stenosis and submitted to balloon laryngoplasty as primary treatment. Balloon laryngoplasty was performed in 37 children with an average age of 22.5 months; 24 presented chronic subglottic stenosis and 13 acute subglottic stenosis. Success rates were 100% for acute subglottic stenosis and 32% for chronic subglottic stenosis. Success was significantly associated with acute stenosis, initial grade of stenosis, children of a smaller age, and the absence of tracheostomy. Transitory dysphagia was the only complication observed in three children. Balloon laryngoplasty may be considered the first line of treatment for acquired subglottic stenosis. In acute cases, the success rate is 100%, and although the results are less promising in chronic cases, complications are not significant and the possibility of open surgery remains without prejudice.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Centers for Dental Specialties (CDS) in the country and associations with sociodemographic indicators of the municipalities, structural variables of services and primary health care organization in the years 2004-2009. The study used secondary data from procedures performed in the CDS to the specialties of periodontics, endodontics, surgery and primary care. Bivariate analysis by χ2 test was used to test the association between the dependent variable (performance of the CDS) with the independents. Then, Poisson regression analysis was performed. With regard to the overall achievement of targets, it was observed that the majority of CDS (69.25%) performance was considered poor/regular. The independent factors associated with poor/regular performance of CDS were: municipalities belonging to the Northeast, South and Southeast regions, with lower Human Development Index (HDI), lower population density, and reduced time to deployment. HDI and population density are important for the performance of the CDS in Brazil. Similarly, the peculiarities related to less populated areas as well as regional location and time of service implementation CDS should be taken into account in the planning of these services.

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To examine the influence of l-arginine supplementation in combination with physical training on mitochondrial biomarkers from gastrocnemius muscle and its relationship with physical performance. Male Wistar rats were divided into four groups: control sedentary (SD), sedentary supplemented with l-arginine (SDLA), trained (TR) and trained supplemented with l-arginine (TRLA). Supplementation of l-arginine was administered by gavage (62.5mg/ml/day/rat). Physical training consisted of 60min/day, 5days/week, 0% grade, speed of 1.2km/h. The study lasted 8weeks. Skeletal muscle mitochondrial enriched fraction as well as cytoplasmic fractions were obtained for Western blotting and biochemical analyses. Protein expressions of transcriptor coactivator (PGC-1α), transcriptor factors (mtTFA), ATP synthase subunit c, cytochrome oxidase (COXIV), constitutive nitric oxide synthases (eNOS and nNOS), Cu/Zn-superoxide dismutase (SOD) and manganese-SOD (Mn-SOD) were evaluated. We also assessed in plasma: lipid profile, glycemia and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels. The nitrite/nitrate (NOx(-)) levels were measured in both plasma and cytosol fraction of the gastrocnemius muscle. 8-week l-arginine supplementation associated with physical training was effective in promoting greater tolerance to exercise that was accompanied by up-regulation of the protein expressions of mtTFA, PGC-1α, ATP synthase subunit c, COXIV, Cu/Zn-SOD and Mn-SOD. The upstream pathway was associated with improvement of NO bioavailability, but not in NO production since no changes in nNOS or eNOS protein expressions were observed. This combination would be an alternative approach for preventing cardiometabolic diseases given that in overt diseases a profound impairment in the physical performance of the patients is observed.

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Objective Adapt the 6 minutes walking test (6MWT) to artificial gait in complete spinal cord injured (SCI) patients aided by neuromuscular electrical stimulation. Method Nine male individuals with paraplegia (AIS A) participated in this study. Lesion levels varied between T4 and T12 and time post injured from 4 to 13 years. Patients performed 6MWT 1 and 6MWT 2. They used neuromuscular electrical stimulation, and were aided by a walker. The differences between two 6MWT were assessed by using a paired t test. Multiple r-squared was also calculated. Results The 6MWT 1 and 6MWT 2 were not statistically different for heart rate, distance, mean speed and blood pressure. Multiple r-squared (r2 = 0.96) explained 96% of the variation in the distance walked. Conclusion The use of 6MWT in artificial gait towards assessing exercise walking capacity is reproducible and easy to apply. It can be used to assess SCI artificial gait clinical performance.

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The pathological mechanisms underlying cognitive dysfunction in multiple sclerosis (MS) are not yet fully understood and, in addition to demyelinating lesions and gray-matter atrophy, subclinical disease activity may play a role. To evaluate the contribution of asymptomatic gadolinium-enhancing lesions to cognitive dysfunction along with gray-matter damage and callosal atrophy in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients. Forty-two treated RRMS and 30 controls were evaluated. MRI (3T) variables of interest were brain white-matter and cortical lesion load, cortical and deep gray-matter volumes, corpus callosum volume and presence of gadolinium-enhancing lesions. Outcome variables included EDSS, MS Functional Composite (MSFC) subtests and the Brief Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological tests. Cognitive dysfunction was classified as deficits in two or more cognitive subtests. Multivariate regression analyses assessed the contribution of MRI metrics to outcomes. Patients with cognitive impairment (45.2%) had more cortical lesions and lower gray-matter and callosal volumes. Patients with subclinical MRI activity (15%) had worse cognitive performance. Clinical disability on MSFC was mainly associated with putaminal atrophy. The main independent predictors for cognitive deficits were high burden of cortical lesions and number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions. Cognitive dysfunction was especially related to high burden of cortical lesions and subclinical disease activity. Cognitive studies in MS should look over subclinical disease activity as a potential contributor to cognitive impairment.