Predictive factors of post-discharge surgical site infections among patients from a teaching hospital

Introduction Surgical site infections (SSIs) often manifest after patients are discharged and are missed by hospital-based surveillance. Methods We conducted a case-reference study nested in a prospective cohort of patients from six surgical specialties in a teaching hospital. The factors related to SSI were compared for cases identified during the hospital stay and after discharge. Results Among 3,427 patients, 222 (6.4%) acquired an SSI. In 138 of these patients, the onset of the SSI occurred after discharge. Neurological surgery and the use of steroids were independently associated with a greater likelihood of SSI diagnosis during the hospital stay. Conclusions Our results support the idea of a specialty-based strategy for post-discharge SSI surveillance.

Evaluation of the predictive indices for candidemia in an adult intensive care unit

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate predictive indices for candidemia in an adult intensive care unit (ICU) and to propose a new index. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted between January 2011 and December 2012. This study was performed in an ICU in a tertiary care hospital at a public university and included 114 patients staying in the adult ICU for at least 48 hours. The association of patient variables with candidemia was analyzed. RESULTS: There were 18 (15.8%) proven cases of candidemia and 96 (84.2%) cases without candidemia. Univariate analysis revealed the following risk factors: parenteral nutrition, severe sepsis, surgical procedure, dialysis, pancreatitis, acute renal failure, and an APACHE II score higher than 20. For the Candida score index, the odds ratio was 8.50 (95% CI, 2.57 to 28.09); the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.78, 0.71, 0.33, and 0.94, respectively. With respect to the clinical predictor index, the odds ratio was 9.45 (95%CI, 2.06 to 43.39); the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.89, 0.54, 0.27, and 0.96, respectively. The proposed candidemia index cutoff was 8.5; the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.77, 0.70, 0.33, and 0.94, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Candida score and clinical predictor index excluded candidemia satisfactorily. The effectiveness of the candidemia index was comparable to that of the Candida score.

EDP - A new estimation algorithm

The aim of this work project is to analyze the current algorithm used by EDP to estimate their clients’ electrical energy consumptions, create a new algorithm and compare the advantages and disadvantages of both. This new algorithm is different from the current one as it incorporates some effects from temperature variations. The results of the comparison show that this new algorithm with temperature variables performed better than the same algorithm without temperature variables, although there is still potential for further improvements of the current algorithm, if the prediction model is estimated using a sample of daily data, which is the case of the current EDP algorithm.

Predictive factors for Leishmania infantum infection in dogs examined at a veterinary teaching hospital in Teresina, State of Piauí, Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: In Brazil, culling of seropositive dogs is one of the recommended strategies to control visceral leishmaniasis. Since infectiousness is correlated with clinical signs, control measures targeting symptomatic dogs could be more effective. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out among 1,410 dogs, predictive models were developed based on clinical signs and an indirect immunofluorescence antibody test. RESULTS: The validated predictive model showed sensitivity and specificity of 86.5% and 70.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models could be used as tools to aid control programs in focusing on a smaller fraction of dogs contributing more to infection dissemination.

Predictive value of the ankle-brachial index in the evaluation of intermittent claudication

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the ankle-brachial index (ABI) could be used to predict the prognosis for a patient with intermittent claudication (IC). We studied 611 patients prospectively during 28 months of follow-up. We analyzed the predictive power of using various levels of ABI - 0.30 to 0.70 at 0.05 increments - in terms of the measure's specificity (association with a favorable outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy) and sensitivity (association with a poor outcome after exercise rehabilitation therapy). We found that using an ABI of 0.30 as a cut-off value produced the lowest margin of error overall, but the predictive power was still low with respect to identifying the patients with a poor prognosis after non-aggressive therapeutic treatment. Further study is needed to perhaps identify a second factor that could increase the sensitivity of the test.

Generalized Dasymetric Mapping Algorithm for Accessing Land-Use Change

Contém resumo

Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Predictive control of a current-source inverter for solar photovoltaic grid interface

Solar photovoltaic systems are an increasing option for electricity production, since they produce electrical energy from a clean renewable energy resource, and over the years, as a result of the research, their efficiency has been increasing. For the interface between the dc photovoltaic solar array and the ac electrical grid is necessary the use of an inverter (dc-ac converter), which should be optimized to extract the maximum power from the photovoltaic solar array. In this paper is presented a solution based on a current-source inverter (CSI) using continuous control set model predictive control (CCS-MPC). All the power circuits and respective control systems are described in detail along the paper and were tested and validated performing computer simulations. The paper shows the simulation results and are drawn several conclusions.

Parallelization of kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate AL3Sc precipitation

The present paper reports the precipitation process of Al3Sc structures in an aluminum scandium alloy, which has been simulated with a synchronous parallel kinetic Monte Carlo (spkMC) algorithm. The spkMC implementation is based on the vacancy diffusion mechanism. To filter the raw data generated by the spkMC simulations, the density-based clustering with noise (DBSCAN) method has been employed. spkMC and DBSCAN algorithms were implemented in the C language and using MPI library. The simulations were conducted in the SeARCH cluster located at the University of Minho. The Al3Sc precipitation was successfully simulated at the atomistic scale with the spkMC. DBSCAN proved to be a valuable aid to identify the precipitates by performing a cluster analysis of the simulation results. The achieved simulations results are in good agreement with those reported in the literature under sequential kinetic Monte Carlo simulations (kMC). The parallel implementation of kMC has provided a 4x speedup over the sequential version.

A model to simulate the moment-rotation and crack width of FRC members reinforced with longitudinal bars

The present work describes a model for the determination of the moment–rotation relationship of a cross section of fiber reinforced concrete (FRC) elements that also include longitudinal bars for the flexural reinforcement (R/FRC). Since a stress–crack width relationship (σ–w)(σ–w) is used to model the post-cracking behavior of a FRC, the σ–w directly obtained from tensile tests, or derived from inverse analysis applied to the results obtained in three-point notched beam bending tests, can be adopted in this approach. For a more realistic assessment of the crack opening, a bond stress versus slip relationship is assumed to simulate the bond between longitudinal bars and surrounding FRC. To simulate the compression behavior of the FRC, a shear friction model is adopted based on the physical interpretation of the post-peak compression softening behavior registered in experimental tests. By allowing the formation of a compressive FRC wedge delimited by shear band zones, the concept of concrete crushing failure mode in beams failing in bending is reinterpreted. By using the moment–rotation relationship, an algorithm was developed to determine the force–deflection response of statically determinate R/FRC elements. The model is described in detail and its good predictive performance is demonstrated by using available experimental data. Parametric studies were executed to evidence the influence of relevant parameters of the model on the serviceability and ultimate design conditions of R/FRC elements failing in bending.

Solving large 0–1 multidimensional knapsack problems by a new simplified binary artificial fish swarm algorithm

The artificial fish swarm algorithm has recently been emerged in continuous global optimization. It uses points of a population in space to identify the position of fish in the school. Many real-world optimization problems are described by 0-1 multidimensional knapsack problems that are NP-hard. In the last decades several exact as well as heuristic methods have been proposed for solving these problems. In this paper, a new simpli ed binary version of the artificial fish swarm algorithm is presented, where a point/ fish is represented by a binary string of 0/1 bits. Trial points are created by using crossover and mutation in the different fi sh behavior that are randomly selected by using two user de ned probability values. In order to make the points feasible the presented algorithm uses a random heuristic drop item procedure followed by an add item procedure aiming to increase the profit throughout the adding of more items in the knapsack. A cyclic reinitialization of 50% of the population, and a simple local search that allows the progress of a small percentage of points towards optimality and after that refines the best point in the population greatly improve the quality of the solutions. The presented method is tested on a set of benchmark instances and a comparison with other methods available in literature is shown. The comparison shows that the proposed method can be an alternative method for solving these problems.

A new competitive implementation of the electromagnetism-like algorithm for global optimization

The Electromagnetism-like (EM) algorithm is a population- based stochastic global optimization algorithm that uses an attraction- repulsion mechanism to move sample points towards the optimal. In this paper, an implementation of the EM algorithm in the Matlab en- vironment as a useful function for practitioners and for those who want to experiment a new global optimization solver is proposed. A set of benchmark problems are solved in order to evaluate the performance of the implemented method when compared with other stochastic methods available in the Matlab environment. The results con rm that our imple- mentation is a competitive alternative both in term of numerical results and performance. Finally, a case study based on a parameter estimation problem of a biology system shows that the EM implementation could be applied with promising results in the control optimization area.

Combining non-dominance, objective-order and spread metric to extend firefly algorithm to multi-objective optimization

In this paper, we propose an extension of the firefly algorithm (FA) to multi-objective optimization. FA is a swarm intelligence optimization algorithm inspired by the flashing behavior of fireflies at night that is capable of computing global solutions to continuous optimization problems. Our proposal relies on a fitness assignment scheme that gives lower fitness values to the positions of fireflies that correspond to non-dominated points with smaller aggregation of objective function distances to the minimum values. Furthermore, FA randomness is based on the spread metric to reduce the gaps between consecutive non-dominated solutions. The obtained results from the preliminary computational experiments show that our proposal gives a dense and well distributed approximated Pareto front with a large number of points.

New control algorithm for single-phase series active power filter

This paper presents a single-phase Series Active Power Filter (Series APF) for mitigation of the load voltage harmonic content, while maintaining the voltage on the DC side regulated without the support of a voltage source. The proposed series active power filter control algorithm eliminates the additional voltage source to regulate the DC voltage, and with the adopted topology it is not used a coupling transformer to interface the series active power filter with the electrical power grid. The paper describes the control strategy which encapsulates the grid synchronization scheme, the compensation voltage calculation, the damping algorithm and the dead-time compensation. The topology and control strategy of the series active power filter have been evaluated in simulation software and simulations results are presented. Experimental results, obtained with a developed laboratorial prototype, validate the theoretical assumptions, and are within the harmonic spectrum limits imposed by the international recommendations of the IEEE-519 Standard.