The regulation of cyber warfare under the jus ad bellum

This chapter evaluates the potential for legal regulation of the resort to cyber warfare between states under the ‘jus ad bellum’ (the law on the use of force). Debate in the literature has largely concerned whether cyber warfare falls within the scope of Article 2(4) UNC. The first part of this chapter sets out this debate. It then goes on to argue that the ‘Article 2(4) debate’ often misses the fact that an act of cyber warfare can be considered a breach of a different legal rule: the principle of non-intervention. The chapter further considers some of the issues in applying either the prohibition of the use of force or the principle of non-intervention to cyber warfare, and then concludes by arguing that the debate should be reoriented to focus on another existing international legal obligation: the duty to prevent cyber-attacks.

How to be a fig wasp down under: the diversity and structure of an Australian fig wasp community

Endophytic insects and their parasitoids provide valuable models for community ecology. The wasp communities in inflorescences of fig trees have great potential for comparative studies, but we must first describe individual communities. Here, we add to the few detailed studies of such communities by describing the one associated with Ficus rubiginosa in Australia. First, we describe community composition, using two different sampling procedures. Overall, we identified 14 species of non-pollinating fig wasp (NPFW) that fall into two size classes. Small wasps, including pollinators, gallers and their parasitoids, were more abundant than large wasps (both galler and parasitoid species). We show that in figs where wasps emerge naturally, the presence of large wasps may partly explain the low emergence of small wasps. During fig development, large gallers oviposit first, before and around the time of pollination, while parasitoids lay eggs after pollination. We further show that parasitoids in the subfamily Sycoryctinae, which comprise the majority of all individual NPFWs, segregate temporally by laying eggs at different stages of fig development. We discuss our results in terms of species co-existence and community structure and compare our findings to those from fig wasp communities on other continents.

Fitness of transgenic Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes expressing the SM1 peptide under the control of a vitellogenin promoter

Three transgenic Anopheles stephensi lines were established that strongly inhibit transmission of the mouse malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei. Fitness of the transgenic mosquitoes was assessed based on life table analysis and competition experiments between transgenic and wild-type mosquitoes. Life table analysis indicated low fitness load for the 2 single-insertion transgenic mosquito lines VD35 and VD26 and no load for the double-insertion transgenic mosquito line VD9. However, in cage experiments, where each of the 3 homozygous transgenic mosquitoes was mixed with nontransgenic mosquitoes, transgene frequency of all 3 lines decreased with time. Further experiments suggested that reduction of transgene frequency is a consequence of reduced mating success, reduced reproductive capacity, and/or insertional mutagenesis, rather than expression of the transgene itself. Thus, for transgenic mosquitoes released in the field to be effective in reducing malaria transmission, a driving mechanism will be required.

A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework

In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. in this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Augmented Lagrangian methods under the constant positive linear dependence constraint qualification

Two Augmented Lagrangian algorithms for solving KKT systems are introduced. The algorithms differ in the way in which penalty parameters are updated. Possibly infeasible accumulation points are characterized. It is proved that feasible limit points that satisfy the Constant Positive Linear Dependence constraint qualification are KKT solutions. Boundedness of the penalty parameters is proved under suitable assumptions. Numerical experiments are presented.

Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Term structure dynamics and no-arbitrage under the Taylor rule

A determinação da taxa de juros estrutura a termo é um dos temas principais da gestão de ativos financeiros. Considerando a grande importância dos ativos financeiros para a condução das políticas econômicas, é fundamental para compreender a estrutura que é determinado. O principal objetivo deste estudo é estimar a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros brasileiras, juntamente com taxa de juros de curto prazo. A estrutura a termo será modelado com base em um modelo com uma estrutura afim. A estimativa foi feita considerando a inclusão de três fatores latentes e duas variáveis ​​macroeconômicas, através da técnica Bayesiana da Cadeia de Monte Carlo Markov (MCMC).

Interests prices and the Barosky - Summers resolution of the Gibson paradox under the gold standard

This paper presents a structural monetary úamework featunng a demand function for non-monetary uses of gold, such as the one drawn by Barsky and Summers in their 1988 analy8ÚI of the Gibson Paradox as a natural concomitant of the gold standard period. That structural model predicts that the laws of behavior of nominal prices and interest rates are functions of the rules set by the government to command the money supply. !ta fiduciary vemon obtaina Fisherian relationships &8 particular cases. !ta gold atandard 801ution yields a modelsimilar to the Barsky and Summers model, in which interest rates are exogeneous and subject to shocb. This paper integrates governnment bonds into the analysis, treats interest rates endogenously, and ahifts the responsibility for the shocb to the government budgetary financing policies. The Gibson paradox appears as "practically" the only cl&18 of behavioral pattern open for interest rates and price movements under apure gold standard economy. Fisherian-like relationshipe are utterly ruled out.

Inferring conduct under the threat of entry : the case of Brazilian cement industry

This paper demonstrates that when an industry faces potential entry and this threat of entry constrains pre-entry prices, cost and conduct are not identified from the comparative statics of equilibrium. In such a setting, the identifying assumption behind the well-established technique of relying on exogenous demand perturbations to empirically distinguish between alternative hypotheses of conduct is shown to fail. The Brazilian cement industry, where the threat of imports restrains market outcomes, provides an empirical illustration. In particular, pricecost margins estimated using this established technique are considerably biased downward, underestimating the degree of market power. A test of conduct is proposed, adapted to this constrained setting, which suggests that outcomes in the industry are collusive and characterised by market division.

Aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis: a paradox in the estimation of money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trapo Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when heterogeneity among micro units is present. The prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations. Moreover. policy evaluation based on aggregate data can be grossly misleading.

Organic matter fractions and soil fertility under the influence of liming, vermicompost and cattle manure

Os efeitos do vermicomposto de esterco de curral associado à calagem em atributos da fertilidade do solo foram avaliados através de experimento em vasos empregando um Latossolo Vermelho, distrófico, textura média. Cinco doses do vermicomposto (equivalentes a 0; 28; 42; 56 e 70 t ha-1, peso seco) e cinco doses de calcário (visando elevar a saturação por bases a: 20; 30; 40; 50 e 60%) foram combinadas em esquema fatorial, sendo as amostras de solo incubadas por 180 dias. Para comparação entre o vermicomposto e o esterco de curral, amostras do mesmo solo receberam o equivalente a 70 t ha-1 do esterco de curral que originou o vermicomposto e as cinco doses de calcário listadas anteriormente. Através do cálculo do Índice de Eficiência Agronômica, foi verificado que o potencial de fornecimento de K e de Mg pelo esterco é maior do que o do vermicomposto, e que o de P, é semelhante. O vermicomposto aumentou os teores de Ca2+ e de matéria orgânica (MO), os valores de pH em CaCl2 e a CTC a pH 7. Com o aumento das doses de vermicomposto houve diminuição do C-ácidos húmicos e aumento do C-humina e com a calagem o C-total não aumentou mas houve diminuição do C-ácidos húmicos.