Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities

Published also as: Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 0504/2005.

Approximate knowledge of rationality and correlated equilibria

We extend Aumann's [3] theorem deriving correlated equilibria as a consequence of common priors and common knowledge of rationality by explicitly allowing for non-rational behavior. We replace the assumption of common knowledge of rationality with a substantially weaker notion, joint p-belief of rationality, where agents believe the other agents are rational with probabilities p = (pi)i2I or more. We show that behavior in this case constitutes a constrained correlated equilibrium of a doubled game satisfying certain p-belief constraints and characterize the topological structure of the resulting set of p-rational outcomes. We establish continuity in the parameters p and show that, for p su ciently close to one, the p-rational outcomes are close to the correlated equilibria and, with high probability, supported on strategies that survive the iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies. Finally, we extend Aumann and Dreze's [4] theorem on rational expectations of interim types to the broader p-rational belief systems, and also discuss the case of non-common priors.

Seasonal Stability Tests in gretl. An Application to International Tourism Data

The seasonal stability tests of Canova & Hansen (1995) (CH) provide a method complementary to that of Hylleberg et al. (1990) for testing for seasonal unit roots. But the distribution of the CH tests are unknown in small samples. We present a method to numerically compute critical values and P-values for the CH tests for any sample size and any seasonal periodicity. In fact this method is applicable to the types of seasonality which are commonly in use, but also to any other.

Factors Resulting In Micron Indentation Hardness Descending In Indentation Tests

Some factors that affect the experimental results in nanoindentation tests such as the contact depth, contact area, load and loading duration are analyzed in this article. Combining with the results of finite element numerical simulation, we find that the creep property of the tested material is one of the important factors causing the micron indentation hardness descending with the increase of indentation depth. The analysis of experimental results with different indentation depths demonstrates that the hardness decrease can be bated if the continuous stiffness measurement technique is not adopted; this indicates that the test method itself may also be one of the factors causing the hardness being descended.

Generalized modal identification of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems

This dissertation is concerned with the problem of determining the dynamic characteristics of complicated engineering systems and structures from the measurements made during dynamic tests or natural excitations. Particular attention is given to the identification and modeling of the behavior of structural dynamic systems in the nonlinear hysteretic response regime. Once a model for the system has been identified, it is intended to use this model to assess the condition of the system and to predict the response to future excitations.

A new identification methodology based upon a generalization of the method of modal identification for multi-degree-of-freedom dynaimcal systems subjected to base motion is developed. The situation considered herein is that in which only the base input and the response of a small number of degrees-of-freedom of the system are measured. In this method, called the generalized modal identification method, the response is separated into "modes" which are analogous to those of a linear system. Both parametric and nonparametric models can be employed to extract the unknown nature, hysteretic or nonhysteretic, of the generalized restoring force for each mode.

In this study, a simple four-term nonparametric model is used first to provide a nonhysteretic estimate of the nonlinear stiffness and energy dissipation behavior. To extract the hysteretic nature of nonlinear systems, a two-parameter distributed element model is then employed. This model exploits the results of the nonparametric identification as an initial estimate for the model parameters. This approach greatly improves the convergence of the subsequent optimization process.

The capability of the new method is verified using simulated response data from a three-degree-of-freedom system. The new method is also applied to the analysis of response data obtained from the U.S.-Japan cooperative pseudo-dynamic test of a full-scale six-story steel-frame structure.

The new system identification method described has been found to be both accurate and computationally efficient. It is believed that it will provide a useful tool for the analysis of structural response data.

Extracting material response from simple mechanical tests on hardening-softening-hardening viscoplastic solids

Compliant foams are usually characterized by a wide range of desirable mechanical properties. These properties include viscoelasticity at different temperatures, energy absorption, recoverability under cyclic loading, impact resistance, and thermal, electrical, acoustic and radiation-resistance. Some foams contain nano-sized features and are used in small-scale devices. This implies that the characteristic dimensions of foams span multiple length scales, rendering modeling their mechanical properties difficult. Continuum mechanics-based models capture some salient experimental features like the linear elastic regime, followed by non-linear plateau stress regime. However, they lack mesostructural physical details. This makes them incapable of accurately predicting local peaks in stress and strain distributions, which significantly affect the deformation paths. Atomistic methods are capable of capturing the physical origins of deformation at smaller scales, but suffer from impractical computational intensity. Capturing deformation at the so-called meso-scale, which is capable of describing the phenomenon at a continuum level, but with some physical insights, requires developing new theoretical approaches.

A fundamental question that motivates the modeling of foams is ‘how to extract the intrinsic material response from simple mechanical test data, such as stress vs. strain response?’ A 3D model was developed to simulate the mechanical response of foam-type materials. The novelty of this model includes unique features such as the hardening-softening-hardening material response, strain rate-dependence, and plastically compressible solids with plastic non-normality. Suggestive links from atomistic simulations of foams were borrowed to formulate a physically informed hardening material input function. Motivated by a model that qualitatively captured the response of foam-type vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VACNT) pillars under uniaxial compression [2011,“Analysis of Uniaxial Compression of Vertically Aligned Carbon Nanotubes,” J. Mech.Phys. Solids, 59, pp. 2227–2237, Erratum 60, 1753–1756 (2012)], the property space exploration was advanced to three types of simple mechanical tests: 1) uniaxial compression, 2) uniaxial tension, and 3) nanoindentation with a conical and a flat-punch tip. The simulations attempt to explain some of the salient features in experimental data, like
1) The initial linear elastic response.
2) One or more nonlinear instabilities, yielding, and hardening.

The model-inherent relationships between the material properties and the overall stress-strain behavior were validated against the available experimental data. The material properties include the gradient in stiffness along the height, plastic and elastic compressibility, and hardening. Each of these tests was evaluated in terms of their efficiency in extracting material properties. The uniaxial simulation results proved to be a combination of structural and material influences. Out of all deformation paths, flat-punch indentation proved to be superior since it is the most sensitive in capturing the material properties.