Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical modeling of bowing control applied to violin sound synthesis

Excitation-continuous music instrument control patterns are often not explicitly represented in current sound synthesis techniques when applied to automatic performance. Both physical model-based and sample-based synthesis paradigmswould benefit from a flexible and accurate instrument control model, enabling the improvement of naturalness and realism. Wepresent a framework for modeling bowing control parameters inviolin performance. Nearly non-intrusive sensing techniques allow for accurate acquisition of relevant timbre-related bowing control parameter signals.We model the temporal contour of bow velocity, bow pressing force, and bow-bridge distance as sequences of short Bézier cubic curve segments. Considering different articulations, dynamics, and performance contexts, a number of note classes are defined. Contours of bowing parameters in a performance database are analyzed at note-level by following a predefined grammar that dictates characteristics of curve segment sequences for each of the classes in consideration. As a result, contour analysis of bowing parameters of each note yields an optimal representation vector that is sufficient for reconstructing original contours with significant fidelity. From the resulting representation vectors, we construct a statistical model based on Gaussian mixtures suitable for both the analysis and synthesis of bowing parameter contours. By using the estimated models, synthetic contours can be generated through a bow planning algorithm able to reproduce possible constraints caused by the finite length of the bow. Rendered contours are successfully used in two preliminary synthesis frameworks: digital waveguide-based bowed stringphysical modeling and sample-based spectral-domain synthesis.

Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

The building blocks of the full body ownership illusion

Previous work has reported that it is not difficult to give people the illusion of ownership over an artificial body, providing a powerful tool for the investigation of the neural and cognitive mechanisms underlying body perception and self consciousness. We present an experimental study that uses immersive virtual reality (IVR) focused on identifying the perceptual building blocks of this illusion. We systematically manipulated visuotactile and visual sensorimotor contingencies, visual perspective, and the appearance of the virtual body in order to assess their relative role and mutual interaction. Consistent results from subjective reports and physiological measures showed that a first person perspective over a fake humanoid body is essential for eliciting a body ownership illusion. We found that the illusion of ownership can be generated when the virtual body has a realistic skin tone and spatially substitutes the real body seen from a first person perspective. In this case there is no need for an additional contribution of congruent visuotactile or sensorimotor cues. Additionally, we found that the processing of incongruent perceptual cues can be modulated by the level of the illusion: when the illusion is strong, incongruent cues are not experienced as incorrect. Participants exposed to asynchronous visuotactile stimulation can experience the ownership illusion and perceive touch as originating from an object seen to contact the virtual body. Analogously, when the level of realism of the virtual body is not high enough and/or when there is no spatial overlap between the two bodies, then the contribution of congruent multisensory and/or sensorimotor cues is required for evoking the illusion. On the basis of these results and inspired by findings from neurophysiological recordings in the monkey, we propose a model that accounts for many of the results reported in the literature.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

Coping with Technology: A Study on Economic Methodology and Strategic Management of Technology

There is a broad consensus among economists that technologicalchange has been a major contributor to the productivity growth and, hence, to the growth of the material welfare in western industrialized countries at least over the last century. Paradoxically, this issue has not been the focal point of theoretical economics. At the same time, we have witnessed the rise of the importance of technological issues at the strategic management level of business firms. Interestingly, the research has not accurately responded to this challenge either. The tension between the overwhelming empirical evidence of the importance of technology and its relative omission in the research offers a challenging target for a methodological endeavor. This study deals with the question of how different theories cope with technology and explain technological change. The focusis at the firm level and the analysis concentrates on metatheoretical issues, except for the last two chapters, which examine the problems of strategic management of technology. Here the aim is to build a new evolutionary-based theoreticalframework to analyze innovation processes at the firm level. The study consistsof ten chapters. Chapter 1 poses the research problem and contrasts the two basic approaches, neoclassical and evolutionary, to be analyzed. Chapter 2 introduces the methodological framework which is based on the methodology of isolation. Methodological and ontoogical commitments of the rival approaches are revealed and basic questions concerning their ways of theorizing are elaborated. Chapters 3-6 deal with the so-called substantive isolative criteria. The aim is to examine how different approaches cope with such critical issues as inherent uncertainty and complexity of innovative activities (cognitive isolations, chapter 3), theboundedness of rationality of innovating agents (behavioral isolations, chapter4), the multidimensional nature of technology (chapter 5), and governance costsrelated to technology (chapter 6). Chapters 7 and 8 put all these things together and look at the explanatory structures used by the neoclassical and evolutionary approaches in the light of substantive isolations. The last two cpahters of the study utilize the methodological framework and tools to appraise different economics-based candidates in the context of strategic management of technology. The aim is to analyze how different approaches answer the fundamental question: How can firms gain competitive advantages through innovations and how can the rents appropriated from successful innovations be sustained? The last chapter introduces a new evolutionary-based technology management framework. Also the largely omitted issues of entrepreneurship are examined.

Growth Models with Exogenous Saving Rates, Unemployment and Wage Inertia

[cat] El propòsit d'aquest article és introduir una mercat de treball no competitiu i atur en el model de creixement amb taxes d'estalvi exògenes que es pot trobar en els llibres de text de creixement (Sala‐i‐Martín, 2000; Barro and Sala‐i‐Martín, 2003; Romer, 2006). Primer, derivem un marc general amb una funció de producció neoclàssica per analitzar la relació entre creixement i ocupació. Utilitzem aquest marc per estudiar les dinàmiques conjuntes del creixement i l'ocupació sota diferents regles de fixació salarial.

The Role of Trade in the Structural Transformations of South Korea and the United Kingdom

[cat] El comerç internacional en béns agrícoles té el potencial d'accelerar la transformació estructural dels països amb baixa productivitat agrícola perquè els dóna la possiblitat d'importar aliments. L'objectiu d'aquest article és estudiar l'importància del comerç internacional en aquest context a través dels exemples de Corea del Sud i el Regne Unit. Per fer l'anàlisi, introdueixo comerç internacional en un model de creixement neoclàssicc amb dos sectors, agricultura i no-agricultura. Una característica clau del model és la baixa elasticitat-ingrés del bé agrícola.

Growth Models with Exogenous Saving Rates, Unemployment and Wage Inertia

[cat] El propòsit d'aquest article és introduir una mercat de treball no competitiu i atur en el model de creixement amb taxes d'estalvi exògenes que es pot trobar en els llibres de text de creixement (Sala‐i‐Martín, 2000; Barro and Sala‐i‐Martín, 2003; Romer, 2006). Primer, derivem un marc general amb una funció de producció neoclàssica per analitzar la relació entre creixement i ocupació. Utilitzem aquest marc per estudiar les dinàmiques conjuntes del creixement i l'ocupació sota diferents regles de fixació salarial.

The Role of Trade in the Structural Transformations of South Korea and the United Kingdom

[cat] El comerç internacional en béns agrícoles té el potencial d'accelerar la transformació estructural dels països amb baixa productivitat agrícola perquè els dóna la possiblitat d'importar aliments. L'objectiu d'aquest article és estudiar l'importància del comerç internacional en aquest context a través dels exemples de Corea del Sud i el Regne Unit. Per fer l'anàlisi, introdueixo comerç internacional en un model de creixement neoclàssicc amb dos sectors, agricultura i no-agricultura. Una característica clau del model és la baixa elasticitat-ingrés del bé agrícola.

Le réalisme des relations : étude des réponses apportées au problème de la différence entre la relation et son fondement (1250-1350)

La question de savoir si la relation est différente réellement de son fondement se rencontre fréquemment dans les textes médiévaux à partir du milieu du treizième siècle. Elle se pose avant tout dans un cadre aristotélicien de discussion des catégories et revient à se demander si la catégorie de relation ajoute véritablement une chose supplémentaire, la relation, dans la réalité. Cette question s'inscrit dans une représentation réaliste des relations : pour la plupart des auteurs du treizième et du quatorzième siècle, le fait que des choses soient réellement reliées entre elles ne fait pas de doute. Deux hommes de même taille sont bel et bien égaux, c'est-à-dire réellement reliés entre eux par une relation d'égalité. La difficulté est alors de comprendre comment ces choses sont reliées entre elles, ou encore, ce qu'est exactement cette relation dont il est alors question. Faut-il dire que l'égalité dans chacun des hommes de même taille est une nouvelle chose qui s'ajoute à la substance de chacun d'eux et aux accidents de taille, appartenant à la catégorie de quantité, sur lesquels ces relations d'égalité sont fondées ? Ou faut-il dire que l'égalité est réelle d'une autre manière, c'est-à-dire sans pour autant ajouter une nouvelle chose à ce à quoi elle advient ? Ce problème, qui se rencontre déjà dans les tensions existant entre les différents exposés qu'Aristote a consacrés à cette catégorie, a reçu de multiples réponses. Celles-ci nous éclairent sur la manière dont le réel est appréhendé au Moyen-Âge et sur les débats ontologiques de l'époque. Le travail ici résumé entreprend de délimiter précisément ces réponses et propose une manière de les classer. -- Realism about relations: study of the answers given to the problem of the difference between a relation and its foundation (1250-1350) Summary Whether relation is really distinct from its foundation or not is a question that can easily be found in medieval texts from the mid-thirteenth century onwards. It comes from an aristotelian background, the discussion about the categories, and asks if the category of relation really posits another thing, i.e. a relation, in reality. It results from a realist perspective on relations. In fact, most thirteenth and fourteenth century thinkers held without doubt that things outside the mind are really connected between them. Two men sharing the same height are really equal, that is, really linked to each other by a relation of equality. What is then left to understand is how these things are linked between them, or the exact nature of the aforementioned relation. Should we say that the equality in each of the equally sized men is a new thing that adds to the substance of each of them and to the accidents of height, belonging tho the category of quantity, on which these relations are founded? Or should we say that equality is real in another way, that is, without adding a new thing to the subject acquiring it? We can already find this issue in Aristotle himself, emerging from disagreeing texts devoted to this category. It received various answers that enable us to understand better how reality was defined in the Middle Age and some of the ontological debates of the time. The work that is here summed up attempts to precisely delineate these various answers and to provide a way of classifying them.

Pienivolyymisten tuotteiden varastonohjaus

Pienivolyymiset C-tuotteet ovat Valion jakelutoiminnalle ongelmallisia tuotteita, koska nykyisellä lavoihin perustuvalla toimitusketjulla ei näitä tuotteita voida sijoittaa suoraan jakeluvarastoihin kerättäväksi. Suurista varastoitavista määristä ja pienestä volyymistä seuraa hidas kierto, joka hankaloittaa toimintaa, kun kyseessä ovat nopeasti vanhenevat maitotuotteet. Ratkaisuna käytetty tuotteiden keskittäminen yhteen keskusvarastoon puolestaan aiheuttaa tuotteiden moninkertaista keräilyä. Tätä ongelmavyyhtiä purkamaan on diplomityössä kehitetty kolme ideaalimallia, jotka hyödyntävät lavaa pienempien kiertävien jakeluyksiköiden laajenevaa käyttöä. Uudet jakeluyksiköt tarjoavat mahdollisuuksia kehittää nykyistä joustavampia ratkaisuja jakelun toteuttamiseen. Ideaalimallit eroavat toisistaan realistisuudessaan nykytilanteen rajoitteet huomioon ottaen. Ensimmäinen ideaalimalli pohjautuu selkeästi nykyiseen Valion jakelutoimintaan ja C-tuotteiden keräilyyn keskusvarastossa, joka on työssä kuvattu seikkaperäisesti. Nykytilanteesta eniten eroavassa mallissa keskusvarastoon pohjautuva C-tuotteiden käsittely on kokonaan hylätty. Työssä myös kyseenalaistetaan keskusvaraston tarpeellisuus Valion jakelutoiminnassa.

A Reappraisal of the Allocation Puzzle through the Portfolio Approach

Paradoxically, high-growth, high-investment developing countries tend to experience capital outflows. This paper shows that this allocation puzzle can be explained simply by introducing uninsurable idiosyncratic investment risk in the neoclassical growth model with international trade in bonds, and by taking into account not only TFP catch-up, but also the capital wedge, that is, the distortions on the return to capital. The model fits the two following facts, documented on a sample of 67 countries between 1980 and 2003: (i) TFP growth is positively correlated with capital outflows in a sample including creditor countries; (ii) the long-run level of capital per efficient unit of labor is positively correlated with capital outflows. Consistently, we show that the capital flows predicted by the model are positively correlated with the actual ones in this sample once the capital wedge is accounted for. The fact that Asia dominates global imbalances can be explained by its relatively low capital wedge.

Growth, unemployment and wage inertia

We introduce wage setting via efficiency wages in the neoclassical one-sector growth model to study the growth effects of wage inertia. We compare the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with wage inertia with the equilibrium of an economy without it. We show that wage inertia affects the long run employment rate and that the transitional dynamics of the main economic variables will be different because wages are a state variable when wage inertia is introduced. In particular, we show that the model with wage inertia can explain some growth patterns that cannot be explained when wages are flexible. We also study the growth effects of permanent technological and fiscal policy shocks in these two economies.