Outcome Prediction after Cardiac Arrest Treated with Hypothermia

Rationale: Clinical and electrophysiological prognostic markers of brain anoxia have been mostly evaluated in comatose survivors of out hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) after standard resuscitation, but their predictive value in patients treated with mild induced hypothermia (IH) is unknown. The objective of this study was to identify a predictive score of independent clinical and electrophysiological variables in comatose OHCA survivors treated with IH, aiming at a maximal positive predictive value (PPV) and a high negative predictive value (NPV) for mortality. Methods: We prospectively studied consecutive adult comatose OHCA survivors from April 2006 to May 2009, treated with mild IH to 33-34_C for 24h at the intensive care unit of the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. IH was applied using an external cooling method. As soon as subjects passively rewarmed (body temperature >35_C) they underwent EEG and SSEP recordings (off sedation), and were examined by experienced neurologists at least twice. Patients with status epilepticus were treated with AED for at least 24h. A multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of mortality at hospital discharge. These were used to formulate a predictive score. Results: 100 patients were studied; 61 died. Age, gender and OHCA etiology (cardiac vs. non-cardiac) did not differ among survivors and nonsurvivors. Cardiac arrest type (non-ventricular fibrillation vs. ventricular fibrillation), time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) >25min, failure to recover all brainstem reflexes, extensor or no motor response to pain, myoclonus, presence of epileptiform discharges on EEG, EEG background unreactive to pain, and bilaterally absent N20 on SSEP, were all significantly associated with mortality. Absent N20 was the only variable showing no false positive results. Multivariable logistic regression identified four independent predictors (Table). These were used to construct the score, and its predictive values were calculated after a cut-off of 0-1 vs. 2-4 predictors. We found a PPV of 1.00 (95% CI: 0.93-1.00), a NPV of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.67-0.91) and an accuracy of 0.93 for mortality. Among 9 patients who were predicted to survive by the score but eventually died, only 1 had absent N20. Conclusions: Pending validation in a larger cohort, this simple score represents a promising tool to identify patients who will survive, and most subjects who will not, after OHCA and IH. Furthermore, while SSEP are 100% predictive of poor outcome but not available in most hospitals, this study identifies EEG background reactivity as an important predictor after OHCA. The score appears robust even without SSEP, suggesting that SSEP and other investigations (e.g., mismatch negativity, serum NSE) might be principally needed to enhance prognostication in the small subgroup of patients failing to improve despite a favorable score.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

A Mendelian randomization approach to assess the causal relationship of gamma-glutamyl transferase with blood pressure and insulin

Background: Elevated levels of g-glutamyl transferase (GGT) have been associated with subsequent risk of elevated blood pressure (BP), hypertension and diabetes. However, the causality of these relationships has not been addressed. Mendelian randomization refers to the random allocation of alleles at the time of gamete formation. Such allocation is expected to be independent of any behavioural and environmental factors (known or unknown), allowing the analysis of largely unconfounded risk associations that are not due to reverse causation. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis among 4361 participants to the population based CoLaus study. Associations of sex-specific GGT quartiles with systolic BP, diastolic BP and insulin levels were assessed using multivariable linear regression analyses. The rs2017869 GGT1 variant, which explained 1.6% of the variance in GGT levels, was used as an instrument to perform a Mendelian randomization analysis. Results: Median age of the study population was 53 years. After age and sex adjustment, GGT quartiles were strongly associated with systolic and diastolic BP (all p for linear trend <0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, these relationships were significantly attenuated, but remained significant for systolic (b(95%CI)¼1.30 (0.32;2.03), p¼0.007) and diastolic BP (b (95%CI)¼0.57 (0.02;1.13), p¼0.04). Using Mendelian randomization, we observed no positive association of GGT with either systolic BP (b (95%CI)¼-5.68 (-11.51-0.16), p¼0.06) or diastolic BP (b (95%CI)¼ -2.24 (-5.98;1.49) p¼0.24). The association of GGT with insulin was also attenuated after multivariable adjustment. Nevertheless, a strong linear trend persisted in the fully adjusted model (b (95%CI)¼0.07 (0.04;0.09), p<0.0001). Using Mendelian randomization, we observed a similar positive association of GGT with insulin (b (95%CI)¼0.19 (0.01-0.37), p¼0.04). Conclusion: In this study, we found evidence for a direct causal relationship between GGT and insulin, suggesting that oxidative stress may be causally implicated in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Secondhand smoke exposure in children is associated with common carotid artery intima-media thickness

Objective: To investigate the association between common carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) and exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) in children. Methods: Data were available at baseline in the Quebec Adiposity and Lifestyle investigation in Youth (QUALITY) study, an ongoing longitudinal investigation of Caucasian children aged 8e10 years at cohort inception, who had at least one obese parent. Data on exposure to parents, siblings and friends smoking were collected in interviewer-administered child, and self-report parent questionnaires. Blood cotinine was measured with a high sensitivity ELISA. cIMTwas measured by ultrasound. The association between blood cotinine and cIMT was investigated in multivariable linear regression analyses controlling for age, body mass index, and child smoking status. Results: Mean (SD) cIMT (0.5803 (0.04602)) did not differ across age or sex. Overall 26%, 6% and 3% of children were exposed to parents, siblings and friends smoking, respectively. Cotinine ranged from 0.13 ng/ml to 7.38 ng/ml (median (IQR)¼0.18 ng/ml)). Multivariately, a 1 ng/ml increase in cotinine was associated with a 0.090 mm increase in cIMT (p¼0.034). Conclusion: In children as young as age 8e10 years, exposure to SHS relates to cIMT, a marker of pre-clinical atherosclerosis. Given the wide range of health effects of SHS, increased public health efforts are needed to reduced exposure among children in homes an private vehicles.

Trends and determinants of time in bed in Geneva, Switzerland

STUDY OBJECTIVES: There is limited information regarding sleep duration and determinants in Switzerland. We aimed to assess the trends and determinants of time in bed as a proxy for sleep duration in the Swiss canton of Geneva. METHODS: Data from repeated, independent cross-sectional representative samples of adults (≥ 18 years) of the Geneva population were collected between 2005 and 2011. Self-reported time in bed, education, monthly income, and nationality were assessed by questionnaire. RESULTS: Data from 3,853 participants (50% women, 51.7 ± 10.9 years) were analyzed. No significant trend was observed between 2005 and 2011 regarding time in bed or the prevalence of short (≤ 6 h/day) and long (> 9 h/day) time in bed. Elderly participants reported a longer time in bed (year-adjusted mean ± standard error: 7.67 ± 0.02, 7.82 ± 0.03, and 8.41 ± 0.04 h/day for 35-50, 50-65, and 65+ years, respectively, p < 0.001), while shorter time in bed was reported by non-Swiss participants (7.77 ± 0.03 vs. 7.92 ± 0.03 h/day for Swiss nationals, p < 0.001), participants with higher education (7.92 ± 0.02 for non-university vs. 7.74 ± 0.03 h/day for university, p < 0.001) or higher income (8.10 ± 0.04, 7.84 ± 0.03, and 7.70 ± 0.03 h/day for < 5,000 SFr; 5,000-9,500 SFr, and > 9,500 SFr, respectively, p < 0.001). Multivariable-adjusted polytomous logistic regression showed short and long time in bed to be positively associated with obesity and negatively associated with income. CONCLUSION: In a Swiss adult population, sleep duration as assessed by time in bed did not change significantly between 2005 and 2011. Both clinical and socioeconomic factors influence time in bed.

Routine delivery of artemisinin-based combination treatment at fixed health facilities reduces malaria prevalence in Tanzania: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been promoted as a means to reduce malaria transmission due to their ability to kill both asexual blood stages of malaria parasites, which sustain infections over long periods and the immature derived sexual stages responsible for infecting mosquitoes and onward transmission. Early studies reported a temporal association between ACT introduction and reduced malaria transmission in a number of ecological settings. However, these reports have come from areas with low to moderate malaria transmission, been confounded by the presence of other interventions or environmental changes that may have reduced malaria transmission, and have not included a comparison group without ACT. This report presents results from the first large-scale observational study to assess the impact of case management with ACT on population-level measures of malaria endemicity in an area with intense transmission where the benefits of effective infection clearance might be compromised by frequent and repeated re-infection. METHODS: A pre-post observational study with a non-randomized comparison group was conducted at two sites in Tanzania. Both sites used sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy as a first-line anti-malarial from mid-2001 through 2002. In 2003, the ACT, artesunate (AS) co-administered with SP (AS + SP), was introduced in all fixed health facilities in the intervention site, including both public and registered non-governmental facilities. Population-level prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia and gametocytaemia were assessed using light microscopy from samples collected during representative household surveys in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006. FINDINGS: Among 37,309 observations included in the analysis, annual asexual parasitaemia prevalence in persons of all ages ranged from 11% to 28% and gametocytaemia prevalence ranged from <1% to 2% between the two sites and across the five survey years. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to adjust for age, socioeconomic status, bed net use and rainfall. In the presence of consistently high coverage and efficacy of SP monotherapy and AS + SP in the comparison and intervention areas, the introduction of ACT in the intervention site was associated with a modest reduction in the adjusted asexual parasitaemia prevalence of 5 percentage-points or 23% (p < 0.0001) relative to the comparison site. Gametocytaemia prevalence did not differ significantly (p = 0.30). INTERPRETATION: The introduction of ACT at fixed health facilities only modestly reduced asexual parasitaemia prevalence. ACT is effective for treatment of uncomplicated malaria and should have substantial public health impact on morbidity and mortality, but is unlikely to reduce malaria transmission substantially in much of sub-Saharan Africa where individuals are rapidly re-infected.

Análisis multivariable: Una nueva vía para la caracterización cerámica.

En los estudios sobre comercio en la antigüedad, la determinación del lugar de procedencia de un recipiente es imprescindible. Esta caracterización se ha resuelto siempre con el análisis fisico-químico de las pastas cerámicas o el estudio epigráfico. Sin embargo, creo que existe una tercera vía: la clasificación tipológica de las cerámicas a través de parámetros numéricos. Es un procedimiento mucho más barato que el análisis fisico-químico, y es por ello que sería de gran utilidad para yacimientos en los que la cantidad de material hace imposible esos análisis para todos los fragmentos de cerámica.

Clinically assessed consequences of workplace physical violence

OBJECTIVES: To assess consequences of physical violence at work and identify their predictors. METHODS: Among the patients in a medicolegal consultation from 2007 to 2010, the subsample of workplace violence victims (n = 185) was identified and contacted again in average 30 months after the assault. Eighty-six victims (47 %) participated. Ordinal logistic regression analyses assessed the effect of 9 potential risk factors on physical, psychological and work consequences summarized in a severity score (0-9). RESULTS: Severity score distribution was as follows: 4+: 14 %; 1-3: 42 %; and 0: 44 %. Initial psychological distress resulting from the violence was a strong predictor (p < 0.001) of the severity score both on work and long-term psychological consequences. Gender and age did not reach significant levels in multivariable analyses even though female victims had overall more severe consequences. Unexpectedly, only among workers whose jobs implied high awareness of the risk of violence, first-time violence was associated with long-term psychological and physical consequences (p = 0.004). Among the factors assessed at follow-up, perceived lack of employers' support or absence of employer was associated with higher values on the severity score. The seven other assessed factors (initial physical injuries; previous experience of violence; preexisting health problems; working alone; internal violence; lack of support from colleagues; and lack of support from family or friends) were not significantly associated with the severity score. CONCLUSIONS: Being a victim of workplace violence can result in long-term consequences on health and employment, their severity increases with the seriousness of initial psychological distress. Support from the employer can help prevent negative outcomes.

Robust accelerated failure time regression

Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

Blocking hypoxia-induced autophagy in tumors restores cytotoxic T-cell activity and promotes regression.

The relationship between hypoxic stress, autophagy, and specific cell-mediated cytotoxicity remains unknown. This study shows that hypoxia-induced resistance of lung tumor to cytolytic T lymphocyte (CTL)-mediated lysis is associated with autophagy induction in target cells. In turn, this correlates with STAT3 phosphorylation on tyrosine 705 residue (pSTAT3) and HIF-1α accumulation. Inhibition of autophagy by siRNA targeting of either beclin1 or Atg5 resulted in impairment of pSTAT3 and restoration of hypoxic tumor cell susceptibility to CTL-mediated lysis. Furthermore, inhibition of pSTAT3 in hypoxic Atg5 or beclin1-targeted tumor cells was found to be associated with the inhibition Src kinase (pSrc). Autophagy-induced pSTAT3 and pSrc regulation seemed to involve the ubiquitin proteasome system and p62/SQSTM1. In vivo experiments using B16-F10 melanoma tumor cells indicated that depletion of beclin1 resulted in an inhibition of B16-F10 tumor growth and increased tumor apoptosis. Moreover, in vivo inhibition of autophagy by hydroxychloroquine in B16-F10 tumor-bearing mice and mice vaccinated with tyrosinase-related protein-2 peptide dramatically increased tumor growth inhibition. Collectively, this study establishes a novel functional link between hypoxia-induced autophagy and the regulation of antigen-specific T-cell lysis and points to a major role of autophagy in the control of in vivo tumor growth.

Site-specific coupling between vascular wall thickness and function: an observational MRI study of vessel wall thickening and stiffening in hypertension.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to evaluate associations between aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) and aortic and carotid vessel wall thickness (VWT) using cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with hypertension as compared with healthy adult volunteers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Local medical ethics approval was obtained and the participants gave informed consent. Fifteen patients with hypertension (5 men and 10 women; mean [SD] age, 49 [14] years) and 15 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers were prospectively included and compared. All participants underwent MRI examination for measuring aortic and carotid VWT and aortic PWV with well-validated MRI techniques at 1.5- and 3-T MRI systems: PWV was assessed from velocity-encoded MRI and VWT was assessed by using dual-inversion black-blood gradient-echo imaging techniques. Paired t tests were used for testing differences between the volunteers and the patients and Pearson correlation (r) and univariable and multivariable stepwise linear regression analyses were used to test associations between aortic and carotid arterial wall thickness and stiffness. RESULTS: Mean values for aortic PWV and aortic and carotid VWT (indexed for body surface area [BSA]) were all significantly higher in patients with hypertension as compared with the healthy volunteers (ie, aortic PWV, 7.0 ± 1.4 m/s vs 5.7 ± 1.3 m/s; aortic VWT/BSA, 0.12 ± 0.03 mL/m vs 0.10 ± 0.03 mL/m; carotid VWT/BSA, 0.04 ± 0.01 mL/m vs 0.03 ± 0.01 mL/m; all P < 0.01). Aortic PWV was highly correlated with aortic VWT/BSA (r = 0.76 and P = 0.002 in the patients vs r = 0.63 and P = 0.02 in the volunteers), and in the patients, aortic PWV was moderately correlated with carotid VWT/BSA (r = 0.50; P = 0.04). In the volunteers, correlation between aortic PWV and carotid VWT/BSA was not significant (r = 0.40; P = 0.13). In addition, aortic VWT/BSA was significantly correlated with carotid VWT/BSA, in both the patients (r = 0.60; P = 0.005) and volunteers (r = 0.57; P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: In the patients with hypertension and the healthy volunteers, the aortic PWV is associated more strongly with aortic wall thickness than with carotid wall thickness, reflecting site-specific coupling between vascular wall thickness and function.

Impacto social e idoneidad de los servicios de los telecentros españoles en la sociedad de la información: metodología de evaluación a partir de indicadores y método de análisis multivariable

Los telecentros españoles constituyen un instrumento de dinamización e inclusión social en la sociedad de la información. Sin embargo, existe una ausencia de indicadores de impacto que permitan evaluar las transformaciones sociales que originan estas entidades en sus áreas de influencia. Teniendo en cuenta este aspecto se formula un sistema de evaluación basado en indicadores y en el método de análisis multivariable "Rango Selectivo Multidimensional" (RSM) con el objeto de medir el impacto de estas entidades en la sociedad de la información.

Detection of HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral treatment and clinical progression in a large European cohort study.

OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death. DESIGN: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window. METHODS: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed. RESULTS: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.

Little evidence that hepatitis C virus leads to a higher risk of mortality in the absence of cirrhosis and excess alcohol intake: the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study.

The objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality of participants in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort compared to the Swiss general population. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection attending secondary and tertiary care centres in Switzerland. One thousand six hundred and forty-five patients with HCV infection were followed up for a mean of over 2 years. We calculated all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using age, sex and calendar year-specific Swiss all-cause mortality rates. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to model the variability of SMR by cirrhotic status, HCV genotype, infection with hepatitis B virus or HIV, injection drug use and alcohol intake. Sixty-one deaths were recorded out of 1645 participants. The crude all-cause SMR was 4.5 (95% CI: 3.5-5.8). Patients co-infected with HIV had a crude SMR of 20 (95% CI: 11.1-36.1). The SMR of 1.1 (95% CI: 0.63-2.03) for patients who were not cirrhotic, not infected with HBV or HIV, did not inject drugs, were not heavy alcohol consumers (<or=40 g/day) and were not genotype 3, indicated no strong evidence of excess mortality. We found little evidence of excess mortality in hepatitis C infected patients who were not cirrhotic, in the absence of selected risk factors. Our findings emphasize the importance of providing appropriate preventive advice, such as counselling to avoid alcohol intake, in those infected with HCV.