Modelling the niche for a marine vertebrate: A case study incorporating behavioural plasticity, proximate threats and climate change

[EN] The integration of satellite telemetry, remotely sensed environmental data, and habitat/environmental modelling has provided for a growing understanding of spatial and temporal ecology of species of conservation concern. The Republic of Cape Verde comprises the only substantial rookery for the loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta in the eastern Atlantic. A size related dichotomy in adult foraging patterns has previously been revealed for adult sea turtles from this population with a proportion of adults foraging neritically, whilst the majority forage oceanically. Here we describe observed habitat use and employ ecological niche modelling to identify suitable foraging habitats for animals utilising these two distinct behavioural strategies. We also investigate how these predicted habitat niches may alter under the influence of climate change induced oceanic temperature rises.

Modelling the mixing of lead bullion during the refining process

Abstract not available

Modelling the fillet lifting defect

Abstract not available

Modelling the melting and solidification of solder material

Abstract not available

Modelling the Sun's small scale global photospheric magnetic field

We present a new model for the Sun's global photospheric magnetic field during a deep minimum of activity, in which no active regions emerge. The emergence and subsequent evolution of small- scale magnetic features across the full solar surface is simulated, subject to the influence of a global supergranular flow pattern. Visually, the resulting simulated magnetograms reproduce the typical structure and scale observed in quiet Sun magnetograms. Quantitatively, the simulation quickly reaches a steady state, resulting in a mean field and flux distribution that are in good agreement with those determined from observations. A potential coronal magnetic field is extrapolated from the simulated full Sun magnetograms, to consider the implications of such a quiet photospheric magnetic field on the corona and inner heliosphere. The bulk of the coronal magnetic field closes very low down, in short connections between small-scale features in the simulated magnetic network. Just 0.1% of the photospheric magnetic flux is found to be open at 2:5 Rʘ, around 10 - 100 times less than that determined for typical HMI synoptic map observations. If such conditions were to exist on the Sun, this would lead to a significantly weaker interplanetary magnetic field than is presently observed, and hence a much higher cosmic ray flux at Earth.

Modelling the growth of Northern Cod

We develop a body size growth model of Northern cod (Gadus morhua) in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions 2J3KL during 2009-2013. We use individual length-at-age data from the bottom trawl survey in these divisions during 2009–2013. We use the Von Bertalanffy (VonB) model extended to account for between-individual variations in growth, and variations that may be caused by the methods which fish are caught and sampled for length and age measurements. We assume between-individual variation in growth appears because individuals grow at a different rate (k), and they achieve different maximum sizes (l∞). We also included measurement error in length and age in our model since ignoring these errors can lead to biased estimates of the growth parameters. We use the structural errors-invariables (SEV) approach to estimate individual variation in growth, ageing error variation, and the true age distribution of the fish. Our results shows the existence of individual variation in growth and ME in age. According to the negative log likelihood ratio (NLLR) test, the best model indicated: 1) different growth patterns across divisions and years. 2) Between individual variation in growth is the same for the same division across years. 3) The ME in age and true age distribution are different for each year and division.

Modelling the development of an online learning resource by health care professionals

The aim of this study was to model the process of development for an Online Learning Resource (OLR) by Health Care Professionals (HCPs) to meet lymphoedema-related educational needs, within an asset-based management context. Previous research has shown that HCPs have unmet educational needs in relation to lymphoedema but details on their specific nature or context were lacking. Against this background, the study was conducted in two distinct but complementary phases. In Phase 1, a national survey was conducted of HCPs predominantly in community, oncology and palliative care services, followed by focus group discussions with a sample of respondents. In Phase 2, lymphoedema specialists (LSs) used an action research approach to design and implement an OLR to meet the needs identified in Phase 1. Study findings were analysed using descriptive statistics (Phase 1), and framework, thematic and dialectic analysis to explore their potential to inform future service development and education theory. Unmet educational need was found to be specific to health care setting and professional group. These resulted in HCPs feeling poorly-equipped to diagnose and manage lymphoedema. Of concern, when identified, lymphoedema was sometimes buried for fear of overwhelming stretched services. An OLR was identified as a means of addressing the unmet educational needs. This was successfully developed and implemented with minimal additional resources. The process model created has the potential to inform contemporary leadership theory in asset-based management contexts. This doctoral research makes a timely contribution to leadership theory since the resource constraints underpinning much of the contribution has salience to current public services. The process model created has the potential to inform contemporary leadership theory in asset-based management contexts. Further study of a leadership style which incorporates cognisance of Cognitive Load Theory and Self-Determination Theory is suggested. In addition, the detailed reporting of process and how this facilitated learning for participants contributes to workplace education theory

Modelling the relationship between biomechanics and performance of young sprinting swimmers

The aim of this study was to compute a swimming performance confirmatory model based on biomechanical parameters. The sample included 100 young swimmers (overall: 12.3 ± 0.74 years; 49 boys: 12.5 ± 0.76 years; 51 girls: 12.2 ± 0.71 years; both genders in Tanner stages 1-2 by self-report) participating on a regular basis in regional and national-level events. The 100 m freestyle event was chosen as the performance indicator. Anthropometric (arm span), strength (throwing velocity), power output (power to overcome drag), kinematic (swimming velocity) and efficiency (propelling efficiency) parameters were measured and included in the model. The path-flow analysis procedure was used to design and compute the model. The anthropometric parameter (arm span) was excluded in the final model, increasing its goodness-of-fit. The final model included the throw velocity, power output, swimming velocity and propelling efficiency. All links were significant between the parameters included, but the throw velocity-power output. The final model was explained by 69% presenting a reasonable adjustment (model's goodness-of-fit; x(2)/df = 3.89). This model shows that strength and power output parameters do play a mediator and meaningful role in the young swimmers' performance.

Modelling the biogeochemical cycles of elements limiting primary production in the English channel .1. Role of thermohaline stratification

This paper presents the general framework of an ecological model of the English Channel. The model is a result of combining a physical sub-model with a biological one. in the physical submodel, the Channel is divided into 71 boxes and water fluxes between them are calculated automatically. A 2-layer, vertical thermohaline model was then linked with the horizontal circulation scheme. This physical sub-model exhibits thermal stratification in the western Channel during spring and summer and haline stratification in the Bay of Seine due to high flow rates from the river. The biological sub-model takes 2 elements, nitrogen and silicon, into account and divides phytoplankton into diatoms and dinoflagellates. Results from this ecological model emphasize the influence of stratification on chlorophyll a concentrations as well as on primary production. Stratified waters appear to be much less productive than well-mixed ones. Nevertheless, when simulated production values are compared with literature data, calculated production is shown to be underestimated. This could be attributed to a lack of refinement of the 2-layer box-model or processes omitted from the biological model, such as production by nanoplankton.

Modelling the biogeochemical cycles of elements limiting primary production in the English channel .2. Sensitivity analyses

A general framework for an ecological model of the English Channel was described in the first of this pair of papers. In this study, it was used to investigate the sensitivity of the model to various factors: model structure, parameter values, boundary conditions and forcing variables. These sensitivity analyses show how important quota formulation for phytoplankton growth is, particularly for growth of dinoflagellates. They also stress the major influence of variables and parameters related to nitrogen. The role played by rivers and particularly the river Seine was investigated. Their influence on global English Channel phytoplanktonic production seems to be relatively low, even though nutrient inputs determine the intensity of blooms in the Bay of Seine. The geographical position of the river Seine's estuary makes it important in fluxes through the Straits of Dover. Finally, the multi-annual study highlights the general stability of the English Channel ecosystem. These global considerations are discussed and further improvements to the model are proposed.

Monitoring and modelling the morphodynamic evolution of a breached barrier beach system

Predicting the evolution of a coastal cell requires the identification of the key drivers of morphology. Soft coastlines are naturally dynamic but severe storm events and even human intervention can accelerate any changes that are occurring. However, when erosive events such as barrier breaching occur with no obvious contributory factors, a deeper understanding of the underlying coastal processes is required. Ideally conclusions on morphological drivers should be drawn from field data collection and remote sensing over a long period of time. Unfortunately, when the Rossbeigh barrier beach in Dingle Bay, County Kerry, began to erode rapidly in the early 2000’s, eventually leading to it breaching in 2008, no such baseline data existed. This thesis presents a study of the morphodynamic evolution of the Inner Dingle Bay coastal system. The study combines existing coastal zone analysis approaches with experimental field data collection techniques and a novel approach to long term morphodynamic modelling to predict the evolution of the barrier beach inlet system. A conceptual model describing the long term evolution of Inner Dingle Bay in 5 stages post breaching was developed. The dominant coastal processes driving the evolution of the coastal system were identified and quantified. A new methodology of long term process based numerical modelling approach to coastal evolution was developed. This method was used to predict over 20 years of coastal evolution in Inner Dingle Bay. On a broader context this thesis utilised several experimental coastal zone data collection and analysis methods such as ocean radar and grain size trend analysis. These were applied during the study and their suitability to a dynamic coastal system was assessed.

Modelling the generation of customised poetry in Jess

The present paper presents an application that composes formal poetry in Spanish in a semiautomatic interactive fashion. JASPER is a forward reasoning rule-based system that obtains from the user an intended message, the desired metric, a choice of vocabulary, and a corpus of verses; and, by intelligent adaptation of selected examples from this corpus using the given words, carries out a prose-to-poetry translation of the given message. In the composition process, JASPER combines natural language generation and a set of construction heuristics obtained from formal literature on Spanish poetry.

Modelling the relationship between biomechanics and performance of young sprinting swimmers

The aim of this study was to compute a swimming performance confirmatory model based on biomechanical parameters. The sample included 100 young swimmers (overall: 12.3 ± 0.74 years; 49 boys: 12.5 ± 0.76 years; 51 girls: 12.2 ± 0.71 years; both genders in Tanner stages 1–2 by self-report) participating on a regular basis in regional and national-level events. The 100 m freestyle event was chosen as the performance indicator. Anthropometric (arm span), strength (throwing velocity), power output (power to overcome drag), kinematic (swimming velocity) and efficiency (propelling efficiency) parameters were measured and included in the model. The path-flow analysis procedure was used to design and compute the model. The anthropometric parameter (arm span) was excluded in the final model, increasing its goodness-of-fit. The final model included the throw velocity, power output, swimming velocity and propelling efficiency. All links were significant between the parameters included, but the throw velocity–power output. The final model was explained by 69% presenting a reasonable adjustment (model’s goodness-of-fit; x2/df = 3.89). This model shows that strength and power output parameters do play a mediator and meaningful role in the young swimmers’ performance.

Modelling the distribution of Bonelli's eagle in Spain: Implications for conservation planning

Bonelli’s eagle, Hieraaetus fasciatus , has recently suffered a severe population decline and is currently endangered. Spain supports about 70% of the European population. We used stepwise logistic regression on a set of environmental, spatial and human variables to model Bonelli’s eagle distribution in the 5167 UTM 10 × 10 km quadrats of peninsular Spain. We obtained a model based on 16 variables, which allowed us to identify favourable and unfavourable areas for this species in Spain, as well as intermediate favourability areas. We assessed the stepwise progression of the model by comparing the model’s predictions in each step with those of the final model, and selected a parsimonious explanatory model based on three variables — slope, July temperature and precipitation — comprising 76% of the predictive capacity of the

Modelling the influence of diradical character and aggregation on conjugated molecular materials

Molecular materials are made by the assembly of specifically designed molecules to obtain bulk structures with desired solid-state properties, enabling the development of materials with tunable chemical and physical properties. These properties result from the interplay of intra-molecular constituents and weak intermolecular interactions. Thus, small changes in individual molecular and electronic structure can substantially change the properties of the material in bulk. The purpose of this dissertation is, thus, to discuss and to contribute to the structure-property relationships governing the electronic, optical and charge transport properties of organic molecular materials through theoretical and computational studies. In particular, the main focus is on the interplay of intra-molecular properties and inter-molecular interactions in organic molecular materials. In my three-years of research activity, I have focused on three major areas: 1) the investigation of isolated-molecule properties for the class of conjugated chromophores displaying diradical character which are building blocks for promising functional materials; 2) the determination of intra- and intermolecular parameters governing charge transport in molecular materials and, 3) the development and application of diabatization procedures for the analysis of exciton states in molecular aggregates. The properties of diradicaloids are extensively studied both regarding their ground state (diradical character, aromatic vs quinoidal structures, spin dynamics, etc.) and the low-lying singlet excited states including the elusive double-exciton state. The efficiency of charge transport, for specific classes of organic semiconductors (including diradicaloids), is investigated by combining the effects of intra-molecular reorganization energy, inter-molecular electronic coupling and crystal packing. Finally, protocols aimed at unravelling the nature of exciton states are introduced and applied to different molecular aggregates. The role of intermolecular interactions and charge transfer contributions in determining the exciton state character and in modulating the H- to J- aggregation is also highlighted.