Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

A national building products inventory

Australia has no nationally accepted building products life cycle inventory (LCI) database for use in building Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) assessment (BEA) tools. More information about the sustainability of the supply chain is limited by industry’s lack of real capacity to deliver objective information on process and product environmental impact. Recognition of these deficits emerged during compilation of a National LCI database to inform LCADesign, a prototype 3 dimensional object oriented computer aided design (3-D CAD) commercial building design tool. Development of this Australian LCI represents 24 staff years of effort here since 1995. Further development of LCADesign extensions is proposed as being essential to support key applications demanded from a more holistic theoretical framework calling for modules of new building and construction industry tools. A proposed tool, conceptually called LCADetails, is to serve the building product industries own needs as well as that of commercial building design amongst other industries’ prospective needs. In this paper, a proposition is examined that the existing national LCI database should be further expanded to serve Australian building product industries’ needs as well as to provide details for its client-base from a web based portal containing a module of practical supply and procurement applications. Along with improved supply chain assessment services, this proposed portal is envisaged to facilitate industry environmental life cycle improvement assessment and support decision-making to provide accredited data for operational reporting capabilities, load-based reasoning as well as BEA applications. This paper provides an overview of developments to date, including a novel 3-D CAD information and communications technology (ICT) platform for more holistic integration of existing tools for true cost assessment. Further conceptualisation of future prospects, based on a new holistic life cycle assessment framework LCADevelop, considering stakeholder relationships and their need for a range of complementary tools leveraging automated function off such ICT platforms to inform dimensionally defined operations for such as automotive, civil, transport and industrial applications are also explored.

Improvements in sustainable energy and water practice in the food processing industry : an in depth analysis of the manufacture of Ghee at the Butter Producers' Cooperative Federation Limited, Brisbane

This thesis is a documented energy audit and long term study of energy and water reduction in a ghee factory. Global production of ghee exceeds 4 million tonnes annually. The factory in this study refines dairy products by non-traditional centrifugal separation and produces 99.9% pure, canned, crystallised Anhydrous Milk Fat (Ghee). Ghee is traditionally made by batch processing methods. The traditional method is less efficient, than centrifugal separation. An in depth systematic investigation was conducted of each item of major equipment including; ammonia refrigeration, a steam boiler, canning equipment, pumps, heat exchangers and compressed air were all fine-tuned. Continuous monitoring of electrical usage showed that not every initiative worked, others had pay back periods of less than a year. In 1994-95 energy consumption was 6,582GJ and in 2003-04 it was 5,552GJ down 16% for a similar output. A significant reduction in water usage was achieved by reducing the airflow in the refrigeration evaporative condensers to match the refrigeration load. Water usage has fallen 68% from18ML in 1994-95 to 5.78ML in 2003-04. The methods reported in this thesis could be applied to other industries, which have similar equipment, and other ghee manufacturers.

Drivers of adoption for successive generation of high-tech products

To understand the diffusion of high technology products such as PCs, digital cameras and DVD players it is necessary to consider the dynamics of successive generations of technology. From the consumer’s perspective, these technology changes may manifest themselves as either a new generation product substituting for the old (for instance digital cameras) or as multiple generations of a single product (for example PCs). To date, research has been confined to aggregate level sales models. These models consider the demand relationship between one generation of a product and a successor generation. However, they do not give insights into the disaggregate-level decisions by individual households – whether to adopt the newer generation, and if so, when. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large scale empirical study to collect household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in contrast to traditional analysis in diffusion research that conceptualizes technology substitution as an “adoption of innovation” type process, we propose that from a consumer’s perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing generation I product with generation II). Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear “substitutes” for the earlier generation (e.g. PCs Pentium I to II to III ). More commonly the new generation II technology is a “partial substitute” for existing generation I technology (e.g. DVD players and VCRs). Some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Moreover, drawing on adoption theory consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic for adoption timing of new products. Hence, we hypothesize consumer innovativeness to influence the timing of both additional and substitute generation II purchases but to have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases. We further propose that substitute generation II purchases act partially as a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Thus, we hypothesize that households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Methods We employ Cox hazard modeling to study factors influencing the timing of a household’s adoption of generation II products. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include size and income of household, age and education of decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases and substitute purchases. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD players and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks. Yet, also as hypothesized, there was no influence on additional purchases. This implies that there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Therefore marketers of high technology products can utilize data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

The influence of age and gender on triclosan concentrations in Australian human blood serum

The bactericide triclosan has found wide-spread use in e.g. soaps, deodorants and toothpastes. Recent in vitro and in vivo studies indicate that triclosan might exert adverse effects in humans. Triclosan has previously been shown to be present in human plasma and milk at concentrations that are well correlated to the use of personal care products containing triclosan. In this study we investigated the influence of age, gender, and the region of residence on triclosan concentrations in pooled samples of Australian human blood serum. The results showed no influence of region of residence on the concentrations of triclosan. There was a small but significant influence of age and gender on the serum triclosan concentrations, which were higher in males than in females, and highest in the group of 31–45 year old males and females. However, overall there was a lack of pronounced differences in the triclosan concentrations within the dataset, which suggests that the exposure to triclosan among different groups of the Australian population is relatively homogenous. A selection of the dataset was compared with previous measurements of triclosan concentrations in human plasma from Sweden, where the use of triclosan is expected to be low due to consumer advisories. The triclosan concentrations were a factor of 2 higher in Australian serum than in Swedish plasma.

Polyfluoroalkyl chemicals in pooled blood serum from infants, children and adults in Australia

Polyfluoroalkyl chemicals (PFCs) have been used worldwide for more than 50 years in a wide variety of industrial and consumer products. Limited data exist on human exposure to PFCs in the Southern Hemisphere. Human blood serum collected in southeast Queensland, Australia, in 2006−2007 from 2420 donors was pooled according to age (cord blood, 0−0.5, 0.6−1, 1.1−1.5, 1.6−2, 2.1−2.5, 2.6−3, 3.1−3.5, 3.6−4, 4.1−6, 6.1−9, 9.1−12, 12.1−15, 16−30, 31−45, 46−60, and >60 years) and gender and was analyzed for eight PFCs. Across all pools, perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was detected at the highest mean concentration (15.2 ng/mL) followed by perfluorooctanoate (PFOA, 6.4 ng/mL), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS, 3.1 ng/mL), perfluorononanoate (PFNA, 0.8 ng/mL), 2-(N-methyl-perfluorooctance sulfonamide) acetate (Me-PFOSA-AcOH, 0.66 ng/mL), and perfluorodecanoate (PFDeA, 0.29 ng/mL). Perfluorooctane sulfonamide was detected in only 24% of the pools, and 2-(N-ethylperfluorooctane sulfonamide) acetate was detected in only one. PFOS concentrations were significantly higher in pools from adult males than from adult females (p = 0.002); no gender differences were apparent in the pools from children (<12 years old). The highest mean concentrations of PFOA, PFHxS, PFNA, PFDeA, and Me-PFOSA-AcOH were found in children <15 years, while PFOS was highest in adults >60 years. Investigation into the sources and exposure pathways in Australia, in particular for children, is necessary as well as continued biomonitoring to determine the potential effects on human concentrations as a result of changes in the PFC manufacturing practices, including the cessation of production of several PFCs.

Serum polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) in pooled serum are higher in children (2-5 years of age) than in infants and adults

Background: Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are used as flame retardants in many products and have been detected in human samples worldwide. Limited data show that concentrations are elevated in young children. Objectives: We investigated the association between PBDEs and age with an emphasis on young children from Australia in 2006–2007. Methods: We collected human blood serum samples (n = 2,420), which we stratified by age and sex and pooled for analysis of PBDEs. Results: The sum of BDE-47, -99, -100, and -153 concentrations (Σ4PBDE) increased from 0–0.5 years (mean ± SD, 14 ± 3.4 ng/g lipid) to peak at 2.6–3 years (51 ± 36 ng/g lipid; p < 0.001) and then decreased until 31–45 years (9.9 ± 1.6 ng/g lipid). We observed no further significant decrease among ages 31–45, 45–60 (p = 0.964), or > 60 years (p = 0.894). The mean Σ4PBDE concentration in cord blood (24 ± 14 ng/g lipid) did not differ significantly from that in adult serum at ages 15–30 (p = 0.198) or 31–45 years (p = 0.140). We found no temporal trend when we compared the present results with Australian PBDE data from 2002–2005. PBDE concentrations were higher in males than in females; however, this difference reached statistical significance only for BDE-153 (p = 0.05). Conclusions: The observed peak concentration at 2.6–3 years of age is later than the period when breast-feeding is typically ceased. This suggests that in addition to the exposure via human milk, young children have higher exposure to these chemicals and/or a lower capacity to eliminate them. Key words: Australia, children, cord blood, human blood serum, PBDEs, polybrominated diphenyl ethers. Environ Health Perspect 117:1461–1465 (2009). doi:10.1289/ehp.0900596

MiLK. Mobile Learning Kit

The Mobile Learning Kit is a new digital learning application that allows students and teachers to compose, publish, discuss and evaluate their own mobile learning games and events. The research field was interaction design in the context of mobile learning. The research methodology was primarily design-based supported by collaboration between participating disciplines of game design, education and information technology. As such, the resulting MiLK application is a synthesis of current pedagogical models and experimental interaction design techniques and technologies. MiLK is a dynamic learning resource for incorporating both formal and informal teaching and learning practices while exploiting mobile phones and contemporary digital social tools in innovative ways. MiLK explicitly addresses other predominant themes in educational scholarship that relate to current education innovation and reform such as personalised learning, life-long learning and new learning spaces. The success of this project is indicated through rigorous trials and actual uptake of MiLK by international participants in Australia, UK, US and South Africa. MiLK was awarded for excellence in the use of emerging technologies for improved learning and teaching as a finalist (top 3) in the Handheld Learning and Innovation Awards in the UK in 2008. MiLK was awarded funding from the Australasian CRC for Interaction Design in 2008 to prepare the MiLK application for development. MiLK has been awarded over $230,000 from ACID since 2006. The resulting application and research materials are now being commercialised by a new company, ‘ACID Services’.

Milk : students building mobile learning games in everyday places

This paper explores how mobile games can transform everyday places into dynamic learning spaces filled with information and inspiration. It discusses the motivation inherent in playing games and creating games for others, and how this stimulates an iterative process of creation and reflection and evokes a natural desire to engage in learning. The use of MiLK at the Adelaide Botanic Gardens is offered as a case in point. MiLK is an authoring tool that allows students and teachers to create and share SMS games for mobile phones. A group of South Australian high school students used MiLK to play a game, create their own games and play each other’s games during a day at the gardens. This paper details the learning processes involved in these activities and how the students reflected on their learning, conducted peer assessment, and engaged in a two-way discussion with their teacher about new technologies and their implications for learning. The paper concludes with a discussion of the needs and requirements of 21st Century learners and how MiLK can support constructivist and connectivist teaching methods that engage learners and may produce an appropriately skilled future workforce.

Making the most of MiLK : harnessing the contemporary culture and interests of natural born cyborg

MiLK is a mobile learning kit that allows students and teachers to author their own place-based learning events using simple web and mobile technologies. We will demonstrate how MiLK has been used by a number of teachers in various contexts to connect students, curriculum and everyday environments. This workshop will introduce participants to the various MiLK tools and processes; including mapping, designing, playing and reviewing events, group journals, discussion forums, student profiles, and class profiles. We will focus on the role of place as a potential resource for curriculum design and delivery. The MiLK Team are looking for enthusiastic mobile technology champions to join us. No previous experience or training in this area is needed. This workshop is designed to be relevant to all KLAs. During this session teachers will have an opportunity to experiment with simple tools to create dynamic resources for their own classrooms.