Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.

Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development

This paper offers empirical evidence that a country's choice of exchange rate regime can have a signifficant impact on its medium-term rate of productivity growth. Moreover, the impact depends critically on the country's level of financial development, its degree of market regulation, and its distance from the global technology frontier. We illustrate how each of these channels may operate in a simple stylized growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. The empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

SBML qualitative models: a model representation format and infrastructure to foster interactions between qualitative modelling formalisms and tools.

BACKGROUND: Qualitative frameworks, especially those based on the logical discrete formalism, are increasingly used to model regulatory and signalling networks. A major advantage of these frameworks is that they do not require precise quantitative data, and that they are well-suited for studies of large networks. While numerous groups have developed specific computational tools that provide original methods to analyse qualitative models, a standard format to exchange qualitative models has been missing. RESULTS: We present the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Qualitative Models Package ("qual"), an extension of the SBML Level 3 standard designed for computer representation of qualitative models of biological networks. We demonstrate the interoperability of models via SBML qual through the analysis of a specific signalling network by three independent software tools. Furthermore, the collective effort to define the SBML qual format paved the way for the development of LogicalModel, an open-source model library, which will facilitate the adoption of the format as well as the collaborative development of algorithms to analyse qualitative models. CONCLUSIONS: SBML qual allows the exchange of qualitative models among a number of complementary software tools. SBML qual has the potential to promote collaborative work on the development of novel computational approaches, as well as on the specification and the analysis of comprehensive qualitative models of regulatory and signalling networks.

Deuteron properties using a truncated one-piox exchange potential

Deuteron properties are studied using the one-pion exchange potential truncated at a radius R, with a constant interior potential. The spectrum of bound states and their properties are put in evidence. We discuss the relation of this model to more realistic models of the nucleon-nucleon interaction.

Diffractive J/Psi photoproduction in a dual model

J/psi photoproduction is studied in the framework of the analytic S-matrix theory. The differential and integrated elastic cross sections for J/psi photoproduction are calculated from a dual amplitude with Mandelstam analyticity. It is argued that, at low energies, the background, which is the low-energy equivalent of the high-energy diffraction, replaces the Pomeron exchange. The onset of the high-energy Pomeron dominance is estimated from the fits to the data.

Optical-model potential for electron and positron elastic scattering by atoms

An optical-model potential for systematic calculations of elastic scattering of electrons and positrons by atoms and positive ions is proposed. The electrostatic interaction is determined from the Dirac-Hartree-Fock self-consistent atomic electron density. In the case of electron projectiles, the exchange interaction is described by means of the local-approximation of Furness and McCarthy. The correlation-polarization potential is obtained by combining the correlation potential derived from the local density approximation with a long-range polarization interaction, which is represented by means of a Buckingham potential with an empirical energy-dependent cutoff parameter. The absorption potential is obtained from the local-density approximation, using the Born-Ochkur approximation and the Lindhard dielectric function to describe the binary collisions with a free-electron gas. The strength of the absorption potential is adjusted by means of an empirical parameter, which has been determined by fitting available absolute elastic differential cross-section data for noble gases and mercury. The Dirac partial-wave analysis with this optical-model potential provides a realistic description of elastic scattering of electrons and positrons with energies in the range from ~100 eV up to ~5 keV. At higher energies, correlation-polarization and absorption corrections are small and the usual static-exchange approximation is sufficiently accurate for most practical purposes.

Microscopic origin of exchange bias in core/shell nanoparticles

We report the results of Monte Carlo simulations with the aim to clarify the microscopic origin of exchange bias in the magnetization hysteresis loops of a model of individual core/shell nanoparticles. Increase of the exchange coupling across the core/shell interface leads to an enhancement of exchange bias and to an increasing asymmetry between the two branches of the loops which is due to different reversal mechanisms. A detailed study of the magnetic order of the interfacial spins shows compelling evidence that the existence of a net magnetization due to uncompensated spins at the shell interface is responsible for both phenomena and allows to quantify the loop shifts directly in terms of microscopic parameters with striking agreement with the macroscopic observed values.

Continuous-time random-walk model for financial distributions

We apply the formalism of the continuous-time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time between successive jumps and the corresponding probability density for the magnitude of a jump. We have applied the formalism to data on the U.S. dollardeutsche mark future exchange, finding good agreement between theory and the observed data.

An AdS/QCD model from tachyon condensation: II

A simple holographic model is presented and analyzed that describes chiral symmetry breaking and the physics of the meson sector in QCD. This is a bottom-up model that incorporates string theory ingredients like tachyon condensation which is expected to be the main manifestation of chiral symmetry breaking in the holographic context. As a model for glue the Kuperstein-Sonnenschein background is used. The structure of the flavor vacuum is analyzed in the quenched approximation. Chiral symmetry breaking is shown at zero temperature. Above the deconfinement transition chiral symmetry is restored. A complete holographic renormalization is performed and the chiral condensate is calculated for different quark masses both at zero and non-zero temperatures. The 0++, 0¿+, 1++, 1¿¿ meson trajectories are analyzed and their masses and decay constants are computed. The asymptotic trajectories are linear. The model has one phenomenological parameter beyond those of QCD that affects the 1++, 0¿+ sectors. Fitting this parameter we obtain very good agreement with data. The model improves in several ways the popular hard-wall and soft wall bottom-up models.

An AdS/QCD model from tachyon condensation: II

A simple holographic model is presented and analyzed that describes chiral symmetry breaking and the physics of the meson sector in QCD. This is a bottom-up model that incorporates string theory ingredients like tachyon condensation which is expected to be the main manifestation of chiral symmetry breaking in the holographic context. As a model for glue the Kuperstein-Sonnenschein background is used. The structure of the flavor vacuum is analyzed in the quenched approximation. Chiral symmetry breaking is shown at zero temperature. Above the deconfinement transition chiral symmetry is restored. A complete holographic renormalization is performed and the chiral condensate is calculated for different quark masses both at zero and non-zero temperatures. The 0++, 0¿+, 1++, 1¿¿ meson trajectories are analyzed and their masses and decay constants are computed. The asymptotic trajectories are linear. The model has one phenomenological parameter beyond those of QCD that affects the 1++, 0¿+ sectors. Fitting this parameter we obtain very good agreement with data. The model improves in several ways the popular hard-wall and soft wall bottom-up models.

Exchange rate predictability

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known thatexchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, andthat a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (theMeese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article providesa critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustratesthe new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and thedata suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is,"It depends" -on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, andforecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of thefollowing hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is therandom walk without drift.

Understanding the gains from wage flexibility: The exchange rate connection

We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price andwage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate,and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely so ineconomies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy.Our findings call into question the common view that wage flexibility is particularlydesirable in a currency union.

Statistical properties of population differentiation estimators under stepwise mutation in a finite island model.

Microsatellite loci mutate at an extremely high rate and are generally thought to evolve through a stepwise mutation model. Several differentiation statistics taking into account the particular mutation scheme of the microsatellite have been proposed. The most commonly used is R(ST) which is independent of the mutation rate under a generalized stepwise mutation model. F(ST) and R(ST) are commonly reported in the literature, but often differ widely. Here we compare their statistical performances using individual-based simulations of a finite island model. The simulations were run under different levels of gene flow, mutation rates, population number and sizes. In addition to the per locus statistical properties, we compare two ways of combining R(ST) over loci. Our simulations show that even under a strict stepwise mutation model, no statistic is best overall. All estimators suffer to different extents from large bias and variance. While R(ST) better reflects population differentiation in populations characterized by very low gene-exchange, F(ST) gives better estimates in cases of high levels of gene flow. The number of loci sampled (12, 24, or 96) has only a minor effect on the relative performance of the estimators under study. For all estimators there is a striking effect of the number of samples, with the differentiation estimates showing very odd distributions for two samples.

Knowledge Licensing in a Model of R&D-driven Endogenous Growth

In this paper I present an endogenous growth model where the engine of growth is in-house R&D performed by high-tech firms. I model knowledge (patent) licensing among high-tech firms. I show that if there is knowledge licensing, high-tech firms innovate more and economic growth is higher than in cases when there are knowledge spillovers or there is no exchange of knowledge among high-tech firms. However, in case when there is knowledge licensing the number of high-tech firms is lower than in cases when there are knowledge spillovers or there is no exchange of knowledge.

Knowledge Licensing in a Model of R&D-driven Endogenous Growth

In this paper I present an endogenous growth model where the engine of growth is in-house R&D performed by high-tech firms. I model knowledge (patent) licensing among high-tech firms. I show that if there is knowledge licensing, high-tech firms innovate more and economic growth is higher than in cases when there are knowledge spillovers or there is no exchange of knowledge among high-tech firms. However, in case when there is knowledge licensing the number of high-tech firms is lower than in cases when there are knowledge spillovers or there is no exchange of knowledge.