Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

The three main marine depositional cycles of the Neogene of Portugal

The present work follows a stratigraphic model for the marine Neogene of Portugal based on the definition of three main marine sedimentary cycles. Conceptually the I, II and III Neogene Cycles can be defined as 2nd order sedimentary sequences with duration ranging from 5 to 8 Ma. The I Neogene Cycle is fully represented only in the Lower Tagus Basin. Ranging from the Early Aquitanian to the Late Burdigalian the I Neogene Cycle testify a transgressive episode in the region of Lisbon and Setúbal Peninsula. Rapid lateral facies variations suggest a shallowmarine basin. This cycle ends with an important Late Burdigalian tectonic compressive event expressed by uplift of the surrounding areas and deformation affecting the Early Miocene deposits of the Arrábida Chain. The II Neogene Cycle includes thick sedimentary sequences covering Paleozoic and Mesozoic formations in the Algarve and Alvalade-Melides regions and it extends as far north as Santarém in the Lower Tagus Basin. Mainly controlled by global eustasy, it was generated by the important positive eustatic trend that characterized the Middle Miocene worldwide to which the Portuguese continental margin acted more or less passively. This cycle ended with a second and the most important compression event starting after the end of the Serravallian affecting the entire Portuguese onshore and shelf areas. This led to an important depositional hiatus of marine sediments for more than 2.5 Ma. During the Early and the Middle Tortonian occurred the clockwise rotation of the Guadalquivir Basin. The thickmarine units deposited afterwards in this basin produced a litostatic load, which seems to have induced subsidence farther west resuming the Neogene marine sedimentation in the Cacela region (Eastern Algarve), during the Late Tortonian. This marks the beginning of the III Neogene Cycle. To the north, in the Sado Basin (Alvalade-Melides region), a similar depositional sequence starts its sedimentation during the Messinian. Further north, in the Pombal-Caldas da Rainha region, marine sedimentation started during the Late Pliocene (Piacenzian). The migration in time, from south to north for the beginning of the marine sedimentation of this cycle is interpreted as reflecting a visco-elastic propagation of the deformation from the Betic chain northwards.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Smart Grid Market Using Joint Energy and Ancillary Services Bids

The power systems operation in the smart grid context increases significantly the complexity of their management. New approaches for ancillary services procurement are essential to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. These approaches should include market mechanisms which allow the participation of small and medium distributed energy resources players in a competitive market environment. In this paper, an energy and ancillary services joint market model used by an aggregator is proposed, considering bids of several types of distributed energy resources. In order to improve economic efficiency in the market, ancillary services cascading market mechanism is also considered in the model. The proposed model is included in MASCEM – a multi-agent system electricity market simulator. A case study considering a distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources is presented.

Elspot: Nord Pool Spot Integration in MASCEM Electricity Market Simulator

The energy sector in industrialized countries has been restructured in the last years, with the purpose of decreasing electricity prices through the increase in competition, and facilitating the integration of distributed energy resources. However, the restructuring process increased the complexity in market players' interactions and generated emerging problems and new issues to be addressed. In order to provide players with competitive advantage in the market, decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets become extremely useful. In this context arises MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), a multi-agent based simulator that models real electricity markets. To reinforce MASCEM with the capability of recreating the electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, it is crucial to make it able to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This paper presents a new negotiation model implemented in MASCEM based on the negotiation model used in day-ahead market (Elspot) of Nord Pool. This is a key module to study competitive electricity markets, as it presents well defined and distinct characteristics from the already implemented markets, and it is a reference electricity market in Europe (the one with the larger amount of traded power).

Particle Swarm Optimization of Electricity Market Negotiating Players Portfolio

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which performs realistic simulations of the electricity markets. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from each market context. However, it is still necessary to adequately optimize the players’ portfolio investment. For this purpose, this paper proposes a market portfolio optimization method, based on particle swarm optimization, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities (bilateral negotiation, market sessions, and operation in different markets) and the negotiation context such as the peak and off-peak periods of the day, the type of day (business day, weekend, holiday, etc.) and most important, the renewable based distributed generation forecast. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator – MIBEL.

Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retailers for day-ahead market

Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.

Towards a unified European electricity market: The contribution of data-mining to support realistic simulation studies

Worldwide electricity markets have been evolving into regional and even continental scales. The aim at an efficient use of renewable based generation in places where it exceeds the local needs is one of the main reasons. A reference case of this evolution is the European Electricity Market, where countries are connected, and several regional markets were created, each one grouping several countries, and supporting transactions of huge amounts of electrical energy. The continuous transformations electricity markets have been experiencing over the years create the need to use simulation platforms to support operators, regulators, and involved players for understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper focuses on demonstrating the advantage that real electricity markets data has for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts and implications that electricity markets transformations will bring to the participant countries. A case study using MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is presented, with a scenario based on real data, simulating the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance when using several different market mechanisms.

Análise estatística do preço da energia elétrica em mercado livre - Uma aplicação ao caso português

Neste relatório apresentam-se resultados de um estudo estatístico que procura contribuir para um melhor entendimento da problemática inerente à liberalização do setor elétrico em Portugal e dos desafios que esta liberalização, existente desde meados de 2007, trás aos seus intervenientes. Iniciam-se os trabalhos com um estudo que pretende avaliar a existência de relação entre o Preço de Mercado da eletricidade e um conjunto de variáveis potencialmente explicativas/condicionantes do Preço de Mercado. Neste estudo consideram-se duas abordagens. A primeira usa a função de correlação cruzada para avaliar a existência de relação do tipo linear entre pares de variáveis. A segunda considera o teste causalidade de Granger na avaliação de uma relação de causa e efeito entre esses pares. Este estudo avaliou a relação entre o Preço de Mercado da eletricidade e 19 variáveis ditas condicionantes distribuídas por três categorias distintas (consumo e produção de eletricidade; indicadores climáticos; e energias primárias). O intervalo de tempo em estudo cinge-se ao biénio 2012-2103. Durante este período avaliam-se as relações entre as variáveis em diversos sub-períodos de tempo em ciclos de consumo representativos do consumo em baixa (fim de semana) e de consumo mais elevado (fora de vazio) com os valores observados de cada uma das variáveis tratados com uma base horária e diária (média). Os resultados obtidos mostram a existência relação linear entre algumas das variáveis em estudo e o preço da eletricidade em regime de mercado liberalizado, mas raramente é possível identificar precedência temporal entre as variáveis. Considerando os resultados da análise de correlação e causalidade, apresenta-se ainda um modelo de previsão do Preço de Mercado para o curto e médio prazo em horas de período fora de vazio.

A process-based control for evolvable production systems

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Technology market transfer plan launch of DELIVES to E.U. Market©

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Biotecnologia

A go-to-market strategy for vertebral metrics

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Aquaponics System - An EPS@ISEP 2014 Spring Project

The goal of this project, one of the proposals of the EPS@ISEP 2014 Spring, was to develop an Aquaponics System. Over recent years Aquaponics systems have received increased attention due to its possibilities in helping reduce strain on resources within 1st and 3rd world countries. Aquaponics is the combination of Hydroponics and Aquaculture and mimics a natural environment in order to successfully apply and enhance the understanding of natural cycles within an indoor process. By using this knowledge of natural cycles it was possible to create a system with the capabilities similar to that of a natural environment with the benefits of electronic adaptions to enhance the overall efficiency of the system. The multinational team involved in its development was composed of five students, from five countries and fields of study. This paper covers their solution, involving overall design, the technology involved and the benefits it could bring to the current market. The team was able to achieve the final rendered Computer Aided Design (CAD) drawings, successfully performed all the electronic testing, and designed a solution under budget. Furthermore, the solution presented was deeply studied from the sustainability viewpoint and the team also developed a product specific marketing plan. Finally, the students involved in this project obtained new knowledge and skills.

Planeamento de um Data Market Place

Relatório de Estágio apresentado para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Novos Media e Práticas Web

Analysis of Electricity Market Prices Using Multidimensional Scaling

This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.