Oxygen isotope and paleomagnetic stratigraphy of sediment core V28-239

Core Vema 28-238 preserves an excellent oxygen isotope and magnetic stratigraphy and is shown to contain undisturbed sediments deposited continuously through the past 870,000 yr. Detailed correlation with sequences described by Emiliani in the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean is demonstrated. The boundaries of 22 stages representing alternating times of high and low Northern Hemisphere ice volume are recognized and dated. The record is interpreted in terms of Northern Hemisphere ice accumulation, and is used to estimate the range of temperature variation in the Caribbean.

Bulk geochemical and lipid biomarker data for sediment core W8402A-14

Eleven sediment samples taken downcore and representing the past 26 kyr of deposition at MANOP site C (0°57.2°N, 138°57.3°W) were analyzed for lipid biomarker composition. Biomarkers of both terrestrial and marine sources of organic carbon were identified. In general, concentration profiles for these biomarkers and for total organic carbon (TOC) displayed three common stratigraphic features in the time series: (1) a maximum within the surface sediment mixed layer (<=4 ka); (2) a broad minimum extending throughout the interglacial deposit; and (3) a deep, pronounced maximum within the glacial deposit. Using the biomarker records, a simple binary mixing model is described that assesses the proportion of terrestrial to marine TOC in these sediments. Best estimates from this model suggest that ~20% of the TOC is land-derived, introduced by long-range eolian transport, and the remainder is derived from marine productivity. The direct correlation between the records for terrestrial and marine TOC with depth in this core fits an interpretation that primary productivity at site C has been controlled by wind-driven upwelling at least over the last glacial/interglacial cycle. The biomarker records place the greatest wind strength and highest primary productivity within the time frame of 18 to 22 kyr B.P. Diagenetic effects limit our ability to ascertain directly from the biomarker records the absolute magnitude that different types of primary productivity have changed at this ocean location over the past 26 kyr.

Accelerating precursory activity within a class of earthquake analogue automata

A statistical fractal automaton model is described which displays two modes of dynamical behaviour. The first mode, termed recurrent criticality, is characterised by quasi-periodic, characteristic events that are preceded by accelerating precursory activity. The second mode is more reminiscent of SOC automata in which large events are not preceded by an acceleration in activity. Extending upon previous studies of statistical fractal automata, a redistribution law is introduced which incorporates two model parameters: a dissipation factor and a stress transfer ratio. Results from a parameter space investigation indicate that a straight line through parameter space marks a transition from recurrent criticality to unpredictable dynamics. Recurrent criticality only occurs for models within one corner of the parameter space. The location of the transition displays a simple dependence upon the fractal correlation dimension of the cell strength distribution. Analysis of stress field evolution indicates that recurrent criticality occurs in models with significant long-range stress correlations. A constant rate of activity is associated with a decorrelated stress field.

Predicting residue-wise contact orders in proteins by support vector regression

Background: The residue-wise contact order (RWCO) describes the sequence separations between the residues of interest and its contacting residues in a protein sequence. It is a new kind of one-dimensional protein structure that represents the extent of long-range contacts and is considered as a generalization of contact order. Together with secondary structure, accessible surface area, the B factor, and contact number, RWCO provides comprehensive and indispensable important information to reconstructing the protein three-dimensional structure from a set of one-dimensional structural properties. Accurately predicting RWCO values could have many important applications in protein three-dimensional structure prediction and protein folding rate prediction, and give deep insights into protein sequence-structure relationships. Results: We developed a novel approach to predict residue-wise contact order values in proteins based on support vector regression (SVR), starting from primary amino acid sequences. We explored seven different sequence encoding schemes to examine their effects on the prediction performance, including local sequence in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles, local sequence plus amino acid composition, local sequence plus molecular weight, local sequence plus secondary structure predicted by PSIPRED, local sequence plus molecular weight and amino acid composition, local sequence plus molecular weight and predicted secondary structure, and local sequence plus molecular weight, amino acid composition and predicted secondary structure. When using local sequences with multiple sequence alignments in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles, we could predict the RWCO distribution with a Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) between the predicted and observed RWCO values of 0.55, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.82, based on a well-defined dataset with 680 protein sequences. Moreover, by incorporating global features such as molecular weight and amino acid composition we could further improve the prediction performance with the CC to 0.57 and an RMSE of 0.79. In addition, combining the predicted secondary structure by PSIPRED was found to significantly improve the prediction performance and could yield the best prediction accuracy with a CC of 0.60 and RMSE of 0.78, which provided at least comparable performance compared with the other existing methods. Conclusion: The SVR method shows a prediction performance competitive with or at least comparable to the previously developed linear regression-based methods for predicting RWCO values. In contrast to support vector classification (SVC), SVR is very good at estimating the raw value profiles of the samples. The successful application of the SVR approach in this study reinforces the fact that support vector regression is a powerful tool in extracting the protein sequence-structure relationship and in estimating the protein structural profiles from amino acid sequences.

Effects of cation substitutions on the physical properties of M2M1T2O6 pyroxenes

In this PhD study, the effects of the cation substitutions on the physical properties of pyroxenes have been discussed. The results of this work extend the knowledge on pyroxenes with different chemical compositions. These properties might be used in the development of ceramic pigments, advanced materials and for the mineralogical phase identification. First of all, the crystallographic differences between Ge and Si pyroxenes have been examined. The structure of C2/c Ca rich Ge clinopyroxenes is very close to the low pressure C2/c structural configuration found in Ca-rich Si-pyroxenes. The shear of the unit cell is very similar, and the difference between a Ge end member and the corresponding Si-rich one is less than 1°. Instead, a remarkable difference exists between Ca-poor Si and Ge clinopyroxenes. First, Ca-poor Ge pyroxenes do not display a P21/c symmetry, but retain the C2/c symmetry; second, the observed C2/c structure shows, at room pressure, the configuration with highly kinked tetrahedral chains characteristic of the high pressure C2/c symmetry of Si Ca-poor pyroxenes. In orthopyroxenes, with Pbca symmetry, Ge-pyroxenes have volume larger than Si-pyroxenes. Samples along the system CaCoGe2O6 - CoCoGe2O6 have been synthesized at three different temperatures: 1050 °C, 1200 °C and 1250 °C. The aim of these solid state syntheses was to obtain a solid solution at ambient pressure, since the analogues Si-system needs high pressure. Unfortunately, very limited solution occurs because the structure forms of the two end member (high temperature for CaCoGe2O6 and high pressure CoCoGe2O6) are incompatible. The phase diagram of this system has been sketched and compared to that of Si. The cobalt end member (CoCoGe2O6) is stable at ambient pressure in two symmetries: at 1050 °C C2/c and 1200 °C Pbca. The impurity phase formed during these experiments is cobalt spinel. Raman spectroscopy has been used to investigate the vibrational properties of Ca-pyroxenes CaCoGe2O6, CaMgGe2O6, CaMgSi2O6 and CaCoSi2O6. A comparison between silicate and germanate pyroxenes shows significant changes in peak positions of the corresponding modes caused mainly by the difference of the Ge-Si atomic weight along with the distortion and compression of the coordination polyhedra. Red shift in Raman spectra of germanates has been calculated by a rough scale factor calculated by a simple harmonic oscillator model, considering the different bond lengths for 4-coordinated Si ~ 1.60- 1.65 Å vs Ge–O distance ~1.70 - 1.80 Å. The Raman spectra of CaMgGe2O6 and CaCoGe2O6 have been classified, in analogy with silicate (Wang et al., 2001) counterparts, in different ranges: - R1 (880-640 cm-1): strong T-O stretching modes of Ge and non-bridging O1 and O2 atoms within the GeO4 tetrahedron; - R2 (640-480 cm-1): stretching/bending modes of Ge-Obr-Ge bonds (chain stretching and chain bending); - R4 (480-360 cm-1): O-Ge-O vibrations; - R3 (360-240 cm-1): motions of the cations in M2 and M1 sites correlated with tetrahedral chain motion and tilting tetrahedra; - R5 (below 240 cm-1): lattice modes. The largest shift with respect to CaMgSi2O6 - CaCoSi2O6 is shown by the T-O stretching and chain modes. High-pressure Raman spectroscopy (up to about 8 GPa) on the same samples of Ca-pyroxenes using an ETH-type diamond anvil cell shows no phase transition within the P-ranges investigated, as all the peak positions vary linearly as a function of pressure. Our data confirm previous experimental findings on Si-diopside (Chopelas and Serghiou, 2000). In the investigated samples, all the Raman peaks shift upon compression, but the major changes in wavenumber with pressure are attributed to the chain bending (Ge-Obr-Ge bonds) and tetrahedra stretching modes (Ge-Onbr). Upon compression, the kinking angle, the bond lengths and T-T distances between tetrahedra decrease and consequently the wavenumber of the bending chain mode and tetrahedra stretching mode increases. Ge-pyroxenes show the higher P-induced peak-position shifts, being more compressible than corresponding silicates. The vibrational properties of CaM2+Ge2O6 (M2+ =Mg, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Zn) are reported for the first time. The wavenumber of Ge-Obr-Ge bending modes decreases linearly with increasing ionic radius of the M1 cation. No simple correlation has been found with M1 atomic mass or size or crystallographic parameters for the peak at ~850 cm-1 and in the low wavenumber regions. The magnetic properties of the system CaCoSi2O6 - CoCoSi2O6 have been investigated by magnetometry. The join is always characterized by 1 a.p.f.u. of cobalt in M1 site and this causes a pure collinear antiferromagnetic behaviour of the intra-chain superexchange interaction involving Co ions detected in all the measurements, while the magnetic order developed by the cobalt ions in M2 site (intra-chain) is affected by weak ferromagnetism, due to the non-collinearity of their antiferromagnetic interaction. In magnetically ordered systems, this non-collinearity effect promotes a spin canting of anti-parallel aligned magnetic moments and thus is a source of weak ferromagnetic behaviour in an antiferromagnetic. The weak ferromagnetism can be observed only for the samples with Co content higher than 0.5 a.p.f.u. in M2, when the concentration is sufficiently high to create a long range order along the M2 chain which is magnetically independent of M1 chain. The ferromagnetism was detected both in the M(T) at 10 Oe and M(H).

Development of novel NMR pulse sequences

To elucidate the structures of orgamc molecules in solution using pulse FT NMR, heteronuclear pulse sequence experiments to probe carbon-13 (13C) and proton (1H) spin systems are invaluable. The one-dimensional insensitive nucleus detected PENDANT experiment finds popular use for structure determination via one-bond 13C-1H scalar couplings. PENDANT facilitates the desired increase in 13C signal-to-noise ratio, and unlike many other pulse sequence experiments (e.g., refocused INEPT and DEPT), allows the simultaneous detection of 13C quaternary nuclei. The tlrst chapter herein details the characterisation of PENDANT and the successful rectification of spectral anomalies that occur when it is used without proton broadband decoupling. Multiple-bond (long-range) l3C-1H scalar coupling correlations can yield important bonding information. When the molecule under scrutiny is devoid of proton spectral crowding, and more sensitive 'inverse' pulse sequence experiments are not available, one may use insensitive nucleus detected long-range selective one-dimensional correlation methods, rather than more time consuming and insensitive multidimensional analogues. To this end a novel long-range selective one-dimensional correlation pulse sequence experiment has been invented. Based on PENDANT, the new experiment is shown to rival the popular selective INEPT technique because it can determine the same correlations while simultaneously detecting isolated 13C quaternary nuclei. INEPT cannot facilitate this, potentially leaving other important quaternary nuclei undetected. The novel sequence has been modified further to yield a second novel experiment that simultaneously yields selective 13C transient nOe data. Consequently, the need to perform the two experiments back-to-back is conveniently removed, and the experimental time reduced. Finally, the SNARE pulse sequence was further developed. SNARE facilitates the reduction of experimental time by accelerating the relaxation of protons upon which pulse sequences, to which SNARE is appended, relies. It is shown, contrary to the original publication, that reiaxation time savings can be derived from negative nOes.

The effect of domestic credit in the economic *development process

A commonly held view is that creation of excessive domestic credit may lead to inflation problems, however, many economists uphold the possibility that, generous domestic credit under appropriate conditions will result in increases of output. This hypothesis is examined for Japan and Colombia for the period 1950-1993.^ Domestic credit theories are reviewed since the times of Thornton and Smith, until the recent times of Lewis, McKinnon, Stiglitz and of Japanese economists like K. Emi, Tachi R. and others. It is found that in Japan of the Post-War period, efficient financial markets and the decisive role of the government in orienting investment decisions seem to have influenced positively the effectiveness of domestic credit as an output-stimulating variable. On the contrary, in Colombia the absence of the above features seems to explain why domestic credit is not very effective as an output-stimulating variable.^ Multiple regression analyses show that domestic credit is a strong explanatory variable for output increases in Japan and a weak one for Colombia's case in the studied period. For Japan the correlation depicts a positive relationship between the two variables with a decreasing rate very similar to a typical production function. Moreover, the positive decreasing rate is confirmed if net domestic credit is used in the correlations. For Colombia a positive relationship is also found when accumulated domestic credit is used, but, if net domestic credit is the source of correlations, the positive decreasing rate is not obtained.^ Granger causality tests determined causality from domestic credit to output for Japan and no-causality for Colombia at the 1% significance level; the differences are explained by: (1) The low development level of the financial system in Colombia. (2) The nonexistence of consistent domestic credit policy to foster economic development. (3) The lack of an authoritative orientation in the allocation of financial resources and the nonexistence of long range industrialization programs in Colombia that could channel productively credit resources. For the system of equations relating domestic credit and exports, the Granger causality tests determined no-causality between domestic credit and exports for both Japan and Colombia also at the 1% significance level. ^

Distribution of planktic foraminifera in surface sediments of the Atlantic Ocean

We present a data set of 738 planktonic foraminiferal species counts from sediment surface samples of the eastern North Atlantic and the South Atlantic between 87°N and 40°S, 35°E and 60°W including published Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) data. These species counts are linked to Levitus's [1982] modern water temperature data for the four caloric seasons, four depth ranges (0, 30, 50, and 75 m), and the combined means of those depth ranges. The relation between planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and sea surface temperature (SST) data is estimated using the newly developed SIMMAX technique, which is an acronym for a modern analog technique (MAT) with a similarity index, based on (1) the scalar product of the normalized faunal percentages and (2) a weighting procedure of the modern analog's SSTs according to the inverse geographical distances of the most similar samples. Compared to the classical CLIMAP transfer technique and conventional MAT techniques, SIMMAX provides a more confident reconstruction of paleo-SSTs (correlation coefficient is 0.994 for the caloric winter and 0.993 for caloric summer). The standard deviation of the residuals is 0.90°C for caloric winter and 0.96°C for caloric summer at 0-m water depth. The SST estimates reach optimum stability (standard deviation of the residuals is 0.88°C) at the average 0- to 75-m water depth. Our extensive database provides SST estimates over a range of -1.4 to 27.2°C for caloric winter and 0.4 to 28.6°C for caloric summer, allowing SST estimates which are especially valuable for the high-latitude Atlantic during glacial times.

Toy model to describe the effect of positional blocklike disorder in metamaterials composites

We study theoretically the effect of a new type of blocklike positional disorder on the effective electromagnetic properties of one-dimensional chains of resonant, high-permittivity dielectric particles, where particles are arranged into perfectly well-ordered blocks whose relative position is a random variable. This creates a finite order correlation length that mimics the situation encountered in metamaterials fabricated through self-assembled techniques, whose structures often display short-range order between near neighbors but long-range disorder, due to stacking defects. Using a spectral theory approach combined with a principal component statistical analysis, we study, in the long-wavelength regime, the evolution of the electromagnetic response when the composite filling fraction and the block size are changed. Modifications in key features of the resonant response (amplitude, width, etc.) are investigated, showing a regime transition for a filling fraction around 50%.

Influence of the sputtering flow regime on the structural properties and magnetic behavior of Fe-Ga thin films (Ga ∼ 30 at.%)

In this paper we analyze the structure of Fe-Ga layers with a Ga content of ∼30 at.% deposited by the sputtering technique under two different regimes. We also studied the correlation between the structure and magnetic behavior of the samples. Keeping the Ar pressure fixed, we modified the flow regime from ballistic to diffusive by increasing the distance between the target and the substrate. X-ray diffraction measurements have shown a lower structural quality when growing in the diffusive flow. We investigated the impact of the growth regime by means of x-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) measurements and obtained signs of its influence on the local atomic order. Full multiple scattering and finite difference calculations based on XAFS measurements point to a more relevant presence of a disordered A2 phase and of orthorhombic Ga clusters on the Fe-Ga alloy deposited under a diffusive regime; however, in the ballistic sample, a higher presence of D0_3/B2 phases is evidenced. Structural characteristics, from local to long range, seem to determine the magnetic behavior of the layers. Whereas a clear in-plane magnetic anisotropy is observed in the film deposited under ballistic flow, the diffusive sample is magnetically isotropic. Therefore, our experimental results provide evidence of a correlation between flow regime and structural properties and its impact on the magnetic behavior of a rather unexplored compositional region of Fe-Ga compounds.

Major ion chemistry of snow cores along a transect in central Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

Among the large variety of particulates in the atmosphere, calcic mineral dust particles have highly reactive surfaces that undergo heterogeneous reactions with nitrogen oxides contiguously. The association between Ca2+, an important proxy indicator of mineral dust and NO3-, a dominant anion in the Antarctic snow pack was analysed. A total of 41 snow cores (~ 1 m each) that represent snow deposited during 2008-2009 were studied along coastal-inland transects from two different regions - the Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL) and central Dronning Maud Land (cDML) in East Antarctica. Correlation statistics showed a strong association (at 99 % significance level) between NO3- and Ca2+ at the near-coastal sections of both PEL (r = 0.72) and cDML (r = 0.76) transects. Similarly, a strong association between these ions was also observed in snow deposits at the inland sections of PEL (r = 0.8) and cDML (r = 0.85). Such systematic associations between Ca2+ and NO3- is attributed to the interaction between calcic mineral dust and nitrogen oxides in the atmosphere, leading to the possible formation of calcium nitrate (Ca(NO3)2). Forward and back trajectory analyses using HYSPLIT model v. 4 revealed that Southern South America (SSA) was an important dust emitting source to the study region, aided by the westerlies. Particle size distribution showed that over 90 % of the dust was in the range < 4 µm, indicating that these dust particles reached the Antarctic region via long range transport from the SSA region. We propose that the association between Ca2+ and NO3- occurs during the long range transport due to the formation of Ca(NO3)2. The Ca(NO3)2 thus formed in the atmosphere undergo deposition over Antarctica under the influence of anticyclonic polar easterlies. However, influence of local dust sources from the nunataks in cDML evidently mask such association in the mountainous region. The study indicates that the input of dust-bound NO3- may contribute a significant fraction of the total NO3- deposited in Antarctic snow.

Long-term chemical characterization of aerosols at CVAO from 2007 to 2011

The first long-term aerosol sampling and chemical characterization results from measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on the island of São Vicente are presented and are discussed with respect to air mass origin and seasonal trends. In total 671 samples were collected using a high-volume PM10 sampler on quartz fiber filters from January 2007 to December 2011. The samples were analyzed for their aerosol chemical composition, including their ionic and organic constituents. Back trajectory analyses showed that the aerosol at CVAO was strongly influenced by emissions from Europe and Africa, with the latter often responsible for high mineral dust loading. Sea salt and mineral dust dominated the aerosol mass and made up in total about 80% of the aerosol mass. The 5-year PM10 mean was 47.1 ± 55.5 µg/m**2, while the mineral dust and sea salt means were 27.9 ± 48.7 and 11.1 ± 5.5 µg/m**2, respectively. Non-sea-salt (nss) sulfate made up 62% of the total sulfate and originated from both long-range transport from Africa or Europe and marine sources. Strong seasonal variation was observed for the aerosol components. While nitrate showed no clear seasonal variation with an annual mean of 1.1 ± 0.6 µg/m**3, the aerosol mass, OC (organic carbon) and EC (elemental carbon), showed strong winter maxima due to strong influence of African air mass inflow. Additionally during summer, elevated concentrations of OM were observed originating from marine emissions. A summer maximum was observed for non-sea-salt sulfate and was connected to periods when air mass inflow was predominantly of marine origin, indicating that marine biogenic emissions were a significant source. Ammonium showed a distinct maximum in spring and coincided with ocean surface water chlorophyll a concentrations. Good correlations were also observed between nss-sulfate and oxalate during the summer and winter seasons, indicating a likely photochemical in-cloud processing of the marine and anthropogenic precursors of these species. High temporal variability was observed in both chloride and bromide depletion, differing significantly within the seasons, air mass history and Saharan dust concentration. Chloride (bromide) depletion varied from 8.8 ± 8.5% (62 ± 42%) in Saharan-dust-dominated air mass to 30 ± 12% (87 ± 11%) in polluted Europe air masses. During summer, bromide depletion often reached 100% in marine as well as in polluted continental samples. In addition to the influence of the aerosol acidic components, photochemistry was one of the main drivers of halogenide depletion during the summer; while during dust events, displacement reaction with nitric acid was found to be the dominant mechanism. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis identified three major aerosol sources: sea salt, aged sea salt and long-range transport. The ionic budget was dominated by the first two of these factors, while the long-range transport factor could only account for about 14% of the total observed ionic mass.

Multipartite entanglement in harmonic oscillators subjected to dissipative quantum dynamics

Una detallada descripción de la dinámica de bajas energías del entrelazamiento multipartito es proporcionada para sistemas armónicos en una gran variedad de escenarios disipativos. Sin hacer ninguna aproximación central, esta descripción yace principalmente sobre un conjunto razonable de hipótesis acerca del entorno e interacción entorno-sistema, ambas consistente con un análisis lineal de la dinámica disipativa. En la primera parte se deriva un criterio de inseparabilidad capaz de detectar el entrelazamiento k-partito de una extensa clase de estados gausianos y no-gausianos en sistemas de variable continua. Este criterio se emplea para monitorizar la dinámica transitiva del entrelazamiento, mostrando que los estados no-gausianos pueden ser tan robustos frente a los efectos disipativos como los gausianos. Especial atención se dedicada a la dinámica estacionaria del entrelazamiento entre tres osciladores interaccionando con el mismo entorno o diferentes entornos a distintas temperaturas. Este estudio contribuye a dilucidar el papel de las correlaciones cuánticas en el comportamiento de la corrientes energéticas.

Análise de DFA e de agrupamento do perfil de densidade de poços de petróleo

In recent years, the DFA introduced by Peng, was established as an important tool capable of detecting long-range autocorrelation in time series with non-stationary. This technique has been successfully applied to various areas such as: Econophysics, Biophysics, Medicine, Physics and Climatology. In this study, we used the DFA technique to obtain the Hurst exponent (H) of the profile of electric density profile (RHOB) of 53 wells resulting from the Field School of Namorados. In this work we want to know if we can or not use H to spatially characterize the spatial data field. Two cases arise: In the first a set of H reflects the local geology, with wells that are geographically closer showing similar H, and then one can use H in geostatistical procedures. In the second case each well has its proper H and the information of the well are uncorrelated, the profiles show only random fluctuations in H that do not show any spatial structure. Cluster analysis is a method widely used in carrying out statistical analysis. In this work we use the non-hierarchy method of k-means. In order to verify whether a set of data generated by the k-means method shows spatial patterns, we create the parameter Ω (index of neighborhood). High Ω shows more aggregated data, low Ω indicates dispersed or data without spatial correlation. With help of this index and the method of Monte Carlo. Using Ω index we verify that random cluster data shows a distribution of Ω that is lower than actual cluster Ω. Thus we conclude that the data of H obtained in 53 wells are grouped and can be used to characterize space patterns. The analysis of curves level confirmed the results of the k-means

Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks