Neural Networks in Bankruptcy Prediction - A Comparative Study on the Basis of the First Hungarian Bankruptcy Model

The article attempts to answer the question whether or not the latest bankruptcy prediction techniques are more reliable than traditional mathematical–statistical ones in Hungary. Simulation experiments carried out on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy prediction model clearly prove that bankruptcy models built using artificial neural networks have higher classification accuracy than models created in the 1990s based on discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. The article presents the main results, analyses the reasons for the differences and presents constructive proposals concerning the further development of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction.

A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors

Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding 1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are discussed.

The transducer model for contrast detection and discrimination: formal relations, implications, and an empirical test.

The transducer function mu for contrast perception describes the nonlinear mapping of stimulus contrast onto an internal response. Under a signal detection theory approach, the transducer model of contrast perception states that the internal response elicited by a stimulus of contrast c is a random variable with mean mu(c). Using this approach, we derive the formal relations between the transducer function, the threshold-versus-contrast (TvC) function, and the psychometric functions for contrast detection and discrimination in 2AFC tasks. We show that the mathematical form of the TvC function is determined only by mu, and that the psychometric functions for detection and discrimination have a common mathematical form with common parameters emanating from, and only from, the transducer function mu and the form of the distribution of the internal responses. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these relations, which have bearings on the tenability of certain mathematical forms for the psychometric function and on the suitability of empirical approaches to model validation. We also present the results of a comprehensive test of these relations using two alternative forms of the transducer model: a three-parameter version that renders logistic psychometric functions and a five-parameter version using Foley's variant of the Naka-Rushton equation as transducer function. Our results support the validity of the formal relations implied by the general transducer model, and the two versions that were contrasted account for our data equally well.

Health beliefs affect the correct replacement of daily disposable contact lenses:predicting compliance with the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour

Purpose: To assess the compliance of Daily Disposable Contact Lenses (DDCLs) wearers with replacing lenses at a manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency. To evaluate the ability of two different Health Behavioural Theories (HBT), The Health Belief Model (HBM) and The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), in predicting compliance. Method: A multi-centre survey was conducted using a questionnaire completed anonymously by contact lens wearers during the purchase of DDCLs. Results: Three hundred and fifty-four questionnaires were returned. The survey comprised 58.5% females and 41.5% males (mean age 34. ±. 12. years). Twenty-three percent of respondents were non-compliant with manufacturer-recommended replacement frequency (re-using DDCLs at least once). The main reason for re-using DDCLs was "to save money" (35%). Predictions of compliance behaviour (past behaviour or future intentions) on the basis of the two HBT was investigated through logistic regression analysis: both TPB factors (subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) were significant (p. <. 0.01); HBM was less predictive with only the severity (past behaviour and future intentions) and perceived benefit (only for past behaviour) as significant factors (p. <. 0.05). Conclusions: Non-compliance with DDCLs replacement is widespread, affecting 1 out of 4 Italian wearers. Results from the TPB model show that the involvement of persons socially close to the wearers (subjective norms) and the improvement of the procedure of behavioural control of daily replacement (behavioural control) are of paramount importance in improving compliance. With reference to the HBM, it is important to warn DDCLs wearers of the severity of a contact-lens-related eye infection, and to underline the possibility of its prevention.

Obtaining environmental favourability functions from logistic regression

Logistic regression is a statistical tool widely used for predicting species’ potential distributions starting from presence/absence data and a set of independent variables. However, logistic regression equations compute probability values based not only on the values of the predictor variables but also on the relative proportion of presences and absences in the dataset, which does not adequately describe the environmental favourability for or against species presence. A few strategies have been used to circumvent this, but they usually imply an alteration of the original data or the discarding of potentially valuable information. We propose a way to obtain from logistic regression an environmental favourability function whose results are not affected by an uneven proportion of presences and absences. We tested the method on the distribution of virtual species in an imaginary territory. The favourability models yielded similar values regardless of the variation in the presence/absence ratio. We also illustrate with the example of the Pyrenean desman’s (Galemys pyrenaicus) distribution in Spain. The favourability model yielded more realistic potential distribution maps than the logistic regression model. Favourability values can be regarded as the degree of membership of the fuzzy set of sites whose environmental conditions are favourable to the species, which enables applying the rules of fuzzy logic to distribution modelling. They also allow for direct comparisons between models for species with different presence/absence ratios in the study area. This makes themmore useful to estimate the conservation value of areas, to design ecological corridors, or to select appropriate areas for species reintroductions.

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Integrated Proteomics Identified Up-regulated Focal Adhesion-mediated Proteins In Human Squamous Cell Carcinoma In An Orthotopic Murine Model.

Understanding the molecular mechanisms of oral carcinogenesis will yield important advances in diagnostics, prognostics, effective treatment, and outcome of oral cancer. Hence, in this study we have investigated the proteomic and peptidomic profiles by combining an orthotopic murine model of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), mass spectrometry-based proteomics and biological network analysis. Our results indicated the up-regulation of proteins involved in actin cytoskeleton organization and cell-cell junction assembly events and their expression was validated in human OSCC tissues. In addition, the functional relevance of talin-1 in OSCC adhesion, migration and invasion was demonstrated. Taken together, this study identified specific processes deregulated in oral cancer and provided novel refined OSCC-targeting molecules.

Electronic And Structural Study Of Pt-modified Au Vicinal Surfaces: A Model System For Pt-au Catalysts.

Two single crystalline surfaces of Au vicinal to the (111) plane were modified with Pt and studied using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and X-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS) in ultra-high vacuum environment. The vicinal surfaces studied are Au(332) and Au(887) and different Pt coverage (θPt) were deposited on each surface. From STM images we determine that Pt deposits on both surfaces as nanoislands with heights ranging from 1 ML to 3 ML depending on θPt. On both surfaces the early growth of Pt ad-islands occurs at the lower part of the step edge, with Pt ad-atoms being incorporated into the steps in some cases. XPS results indicate that partial alloying of Pt occurs at the interface at room temperature and at all coverage, as suggested by the negative chemical shift of Pt 4f core line, indicating an upward shift of the d-band center of the alloyed Pt. Also, the existence of a segregated Pt phase especially at higher coverage is detected by XPS. Sample annealing indicates that the temperature rise promotes a further incorporation of Pt atoms into the Au substrate as supported by STM and XPS results. Additionally, the catalytic activity of different PtAu systems reported in the literature for some electrochemical reactions is discussed considering our findings.

The Soluble Guanylyl Cyclase Activator Bay 60-2770 Potently Relaxes The Pulmonary Artery On Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Rabbit Model.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is associated with pulmonary hypertension which is often difficult to manage, and a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. In this study, we have used a rabbit model of CDH to evaluate the effects of BAY 60-2770 on the in vitro reactivity of left pulmonary artery. CDH was performed in New Zealand rabbit fetuses (n = 10 per group) and compared to controls. Measurements of body, total and left lung weights (BW, TLW, LLW) were done. Pulmonary artery rings were pre-contracted with phenylephrine (10 μM), after which cumulative concentration-response curves to glyceryl trinitrate (GTN; NO donor), tadalafil (PDE5 inhibitor) and BAY 60-2770 (sGC activator) were obtained as well as the levels of NO (NO3/NO2). LLW, TLW and LBR were decreased in CDH (p < 0.05). In left pulmonary artery, the potency (pEC50) for GTN was markedly lower in CDH (8.25 ± 0.02 versus 9.27 ± 0.03; p < 0.01). In contrast, the potency for BAY 60-2770 was markedly greater in CDH (11.7 ± 0.03 versus 10.5 ± 0.06; p < 0.01). The NO2/NO3 levels were 62 % higher in CDH (p < 0.05). BAY 60-2770 exhibits a greater potency to relax the pulmonary artery in CDH, indicating a potential use for pulmonary hypertension in this disease.

Bay 41-2272, A Soluble Guanylate Cyclase Stimulator, Relaxes Isolated Human Ureter In A Standardized In Vitro Model.

To characterize the relaxation induced by BAY 41-2272 in human ureteral segments. Ureter specimens (n = 17) from multiple organ human deceased donors (mean age 40 ± 3.2 years, male/female ratio 2:1) were used to characterize the relaxing response of BAY 41-2272. Immunohistochemical analysis for endothelial and neuronal nitric oxide synthase, guanylate cyclase stimulator (sGC) and type 5 phosphodiesterase was also performed. The potency values were determined as the negative log of the molar to produce 50% of the maximal relaxation in potassium chloride-precontracted specimens. The unpaired Student t test was used for the comparisons. Immunohistochemistry revealed the presence of endothelial nitric oxide synthase in vessel endothelia and neuronal nitric oxide synthase in urothelium and nerve structures. sGC was expressed in the smooth muscle and urothelium layer, and type 5 phosphodiesterase was present in the smooth muscle only. BAY 41-2272 (0.001-100 μM) relaxed the isolated ureter in a concentration dependent manner, with a potency and maximal relaxation value of 5.82 ± 0.14 and 84% ± 5%, respectively. The addition of nitric oxide synthase and sGC inhibitors reduced the maximal relaxation values by 21% and 45%, respectively. However, the presence of sildenafil (100 nM) significantly potentiated (6.47 ± 0.10, P <.05) this response. Neither glibenclamide or tetraethylammonium nor ureteral urothelium removal influenced the relaxation response by BAY 41-2272. BAY 41-2272 relaxes the human isolated ureter in a concentration-dependent manner, mainly by activating the sGC enzyme in smooth muscle cells rather than in the urothelium, although a cyclic guanosine monophosphate-independent mechanism might have a role. The potassium channels do not seem to be involved.

Atomic Charge Transfer-counter Polarization Effects Determine Infrared Ch Intensities Of Hydrocarbons: A Quantum Theory Of Atoms In Molecules Model.

Atomic charge transfer-counter polarization effects determine most of the infrared fundamental CH intensities of simple hydrocarbons, methane, ethylene, ethane, propyne, cyclopropane and allene. The quantum theory of atoms in molecules/charge-charge flux-dipole flux model predicted the values of 30 CH intensities ranging from 0 to 123 km mol(-1) with a root mean square (rms) error of only 4.2 km mol(-1) without including a specific equilibrium atomic charge term. Sums of the contributions from terms involving charge flux and/or dipole flux averaged 20.3 km mol(-1), about ten times larger than the average charge contribution of 2.0 km mol(-1). The only notable exceptions are the CH stretching and bending intensities of acetylene and two of the propyne vibrations for hydrogens bound to sp hybridized carbon atoms. Calculations were carried out at four quantum levels, MP2/6-311++G(3d,3p), MP2/cc-pVTZ, QCISD/6-311++G(3d,3p) and QCISD/cc-pVTZ. The results calculated at the QCISD level are the most accurate among the four with root mean square errors of 4.7 and 5.0 km mol(-1) for the 6-311++G(3d,3p) and cc-pVTZ basis sets. These values are close to the estimated aggregate experimental error of the hydrocarbon intensities, 4.0 km mol(-1). The atomic charge transfer-counter polarization effect is much larger than the charge effect for the results of all four quantum levels. Charge transfer-counter polarization effects are expected to also be important in vibrations of more polar molecules for which equilibrium charge contributions can be large.

Mesenchymal Stromal Cells From Adipose Tissue Attached To Suture Material Enhance The Closure Of Enterocutaneous Fistulas In A Rat Model.

Surgical treatment for enterocutaneous fistulas (EF) frequently fails. Cell therapy may represent a new approach to treatment. Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) have high proliferative and differentiation capacity. This study aimed to investigate whether MSCs could adhere to suture filament (SF), promoting better EF healing. MSCs, 1 × 10(6), from adipose tissue (ATMSCs) were adhered to a Polyvicryl SF by adding a specific fibrin glue formulation. Adhesion was confirmed by confocal and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). A cecal fistula was created in 22 Wistar rats by incising the cecum and suturing the opening to the surgical wound subcutaneously with four separate stitches. The animals were randomly allocated to three groups: control (CG)-five animals, EF performed; injection (IG)-eight animals 1 × 10(6) ATMSCs injected around EF borders; and suture filament (SG): nine animals, sutured with 1 × 10(6) ATMSCs attached to the filaments with fibrin glue. Fistulas were photographed on the operation day and every 3 days until the 21st day and analyzed by two observers using ImageJ Software. Confocal and SEM results demonstrated ATMSCs adhered to SF (ATMSCs-SF). The average reduction size of the fistula area at 21st day was greater for the SG group (90.34%, P < 0.05) than the IG (71.80%) and CG (46.54%) groups. ATMSCs adhered to SF maintain viability and proliferative capacity. EF submitted to ATMSCs-SF procedure showed greater recovery and healing. This approach might be a new and effective tool for EF treatment.

Changes In Motor Behavior During Pregnancy In Rats: The Basis For A Possible Animal Model Of Restless Legs Syndrome.

Pregnant women have a 2-3 fold higher probability of developing restless legs syndrome (RLS - sleep-related movement disorders) than general population. This study aims to evaluate the behavior and locomotion of rats during pregnancy in order to verify if part of these animals exhibit some RLS-like features. We used 14 female 80-day-old Wistar rats that weighed between 200 and 250 g. The rats were distributed into control (CTRL) and pregnant (PN) groups. After a baseline evaluation of their behavior and locomotor activity in an open-field environment, the PN group was inducted into pregnancy, and their behavior and locomotor activity were evaluated on days 3, 10 and 19 of pregnancy and in the post-lactation period in parallel with the CTRL group. The serum iron and transferrin levels in the CTRL and PN groups were analyzed in blood collected after euthanasia by decapitation. There were no significant differences in the total ambulation, grooming events, fecal boli or urine pools between the CTRL and PN groups. However, the PN group exhibited fewer rearing events, increased grooming time and reduced immobilization time than the CTRL group (ANOVA, p<0.05). These results suggest that pregnant rats show behavioral and locomotor alterations similar to those observed in animal models of RLS, demonstrating to be a possible animal model of this sleep disorder.

Factors Associated With Reporting Of Abuse Against Children And Adolescents By Nurses Within Primary Health Care.

to analyze the factors associated with the underreporting on the part of nurses within Primary Health Care of abuse against children and adolescents. cross-sectional study with 616 nurses. A questionnaire addressed socio-demographic data, profession, instrumentation and knowledge on the topic, identification and reporting of abuse cases. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression was used. female nurses, aged between 21 and 32 years old, not married, with five or more years since graduation, with graduate studies, and working for five or more years in PHC predominated. The final regression model showed that factors such as working for five or more years, having a reporting form within the PHC unit, and believing that reporting within Primary Health Care is an advantage, facilitate reporting. the study's results may, in addition to sensitizing nurses, support management professionals in establishing strategies intended to produce compliance with reporting as a legal device that ensures the rights of children and adolescents.

Urothelial Carcinogen Resistance Driven By Stronger Toll-like Receptor 2 (tlr2) And Uroplakin Iii (up Iii) Defense Mechanisms: A New Model.

The objective of the study was to illustrate the applicability and significance of the novel Lewis urothelial cancer model compared to the classic Fisher 344. Fischer 344 and Lewis females rats, 7 weeks old, were intravesical instilled N-methyl-N-nitrosourea 1.5 mg/kg every other week for a total of four doses. After 15 weeks, animals were sacrificed and bladders analyzed: histopathology (tumor grade and stage), immunohistochemistry (apoptotic and proliferative indices) and blotting (Toll-like receptor 2-TLR2, Uroplakin III-UP III and C-Myc). Control groups received placebo. There were macroscopic neoplastic lesions in 20 % of Lewis strain and 70 % of Fischer 344 strain. Lewis showed hyperplasia in 50 % of animals, normal bladders in 50 %. All Fischer 344 had lesions, 20 % papillary hyperplasia, 30 % dysplasia, 40 % neoplasia and 10 % squamous metaplasia. Proliferative and apoptotic indices were significantly lower in the Lewis strain (p < 0.01). The TLR2 and UP III protein levels were significantly higher in Lewis compared to Fischer 344 strain (70.8 and 46.5 % vs. 49.5 and 16.9 %, respectively). In contrast, C-Myc protein levels were significantly higher in Fischer 344 (22.5 %) compared to Lewis strain (13.7 %). The innovative Lewis carcinogen resistance urothelial model represents a new strategy for translational research. Preservation of TLR2 and UP III defense mechanisms might drive diverse urothelial phenotypes during carcinogenesis in differently susceptible individuals.