Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Sonic log prediction in carbonates

This work is conducted to study the complications associated with the sonic log prediction in carbonate logs and to investigate the possible solutions to accurately predict the sonic logs in Traverse Limestone. Well logs from fifty different wells were analyzed to define the mineralogy of the Traverse Limestone by using conventional 4-mineral and 3-mineral identification approaches. We modified the conventional 3-mineral identification approach (that completely neglects the gamma ray response) to correct the shale effects on the basis of gamma ray log before employing the 3-mineral identification. This modification helped to get the meaningful insight of the data when a plot was made between DGA (dry grain density) and UMA (Photoelectric Volumetric Cross-section) with the characteristic ternary diagram of the quartz, calcite and dolomite. The results were then compared with the 4-mineral identification approach. Contour maps of the average mineral fractions present in the Traverse Limestone were prepared to see the basin wide mineralogy of Traverse Limestone. In the second part, sonic response of Traverse Limestone was predicted in fifty randomly distributed wells. We used the modified time average equation that accounts for the shale effects on the basis of gamma ray log, and used it to predict the sonic behavior from density porosity and average porosity. To account for the secondary porosity of dolomite, we subtracted the dolomitic fraction of clean porosity from the total porosity. The pseudo-sonic logs were then compared with the measured sonic logs on the root mean square (RMS) basis. Addition of dolomite correction in modified time average equation improved the results of sonic prediction from neutron porosity and average porosity. The results demonstrated that sonic logs could be predicted in carbonate rocks with a root mean square error of about 4μsec/ft. We also attempted the use of individual mineral components for sonic log prediction but the ambiguities in mineral fractions and in the sonic properties of the minerals limited the accuracy of the results.

Automatic Labeling of Software Components and their Evolution using Log-Likelihood Ratio of Word Frequencies in Source Code

As more and more open-source software components become available on the internet we need automatic ways to label and compare them. For example, a developer who searches for reusable software must be able to quickly gain an understanding of retrieved components. This understanding cannot be gained at the level of source code due to the semantic gap between source code and the domain model. In this paper we present a lexical approach that uses the log-likelihood ratios of word frequencies to automatically provide labels for software components. We present a prototype implementation of our labeling/comparison algorithm and provide examples of its application. In particular, we apply the approach to detect trends in the evolution of a software system.

Kinetics of maternally acquired anti-hepatitis A antibodies: prediction of waning based on maternal or cord blood antibody levels

BACKGROUND Timing is critical for efficient hepatitis A vaccination in high endemic areas as high levels of maternal IgG antibodies against the hepatitis A virus (HAV) present in the first year of life may impede the vaccine response. OBJECTIVES To describe the kinetics of the decline of anti-HAV maternal antibodies, and to estimate the time of complete loss of maternal antibodies in infants in León, Nicaragua, a region in which almost all mothers are anti-HAV seropositive. METHODS We collected cord blood samples from 99 healthy newborns together with 49 corresponding maternal blood samples, as well as further blood samples at 2 and 7 months of age. Anti-HAV IgG antibody levels were measured by enzyme immunoassay (EIA). We predicted the time when antibodies would fall below 10 mIU/ml, the presumed lowest level of seroprotection. RESULTS Seroprevalence was 100% at birth (GMC 8392 mIU/ml); maternal and cord blood antibody concentrations were similar. The maternal antibody levels of the infants decreased exponentially with age and the half-life of the maternal antibody was estimated to be 40 days. The relationship between the antibody concentration at birth and time until full waning was described as: critical age (months)=3.355+1.969 × log(10)(Ab-level at birth). The survival model estimated that loss of passive immunity will have occurred in 95% of infants by the age of 13.2 months. CONCLUSIONS Complete waning of maternal anti-HAV antibodies may take until early in the second year of life. The here-derived formula relating maternal or cord blood antibody concentrations to the age at which passive immunity is lost may be used to determine the optimal age of childhood HAV vaccination.

Effect of photoactivated disinfection with a light-emitting diode on bacterial species and biofilms associated with periodontitis and peri-implantitis

BACKGROUND To determine the effect of photoactivated disinfection (PAD) using toluidine blue and a light-emitting diode (LED) in the red spectrum (wave length at 625-635 nm) on species associated with periodontitis and peri-implantitis and bacteria within a periodontopathic biofilm. METHODS Sixteen single microbial species including 2 Porphyromonas gingivalis and 2 Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans and a multispecies mixture consisting of 12 species suspended in saline without and with 25% human serum were exposed to PAD. Moreover, single-species biofilms consisting of 2 P. gingivalis and 2 A. actinomycetemcomitans strains and a multi-species biofilm on 24-well-plates, grown on titanium discs and in artificial periodontal pockets were exposed to PAD with and without pretreatment with 0.25% hydrogen peroxide. Changes in the viability were determined by counting the colony forming units (cfu). RESULTS PAD reduced the cfu counts in saline by 1.42 log₁₀ after LED application for 30s and by 1.99 log₁₀ after LED application for 60s compared with negative controls (each p<0.001). Serum did not inhibit the efficacy of PAD. PAD reduced statistically significantly (p<0.05) the cfu counts of the P. gingivalis biofilms. The viability of the A. actinomycetemcomitans biofilms and the multi-species biofilms was statistically significantly decreased when PAD was applied after a pretreatment with 0.25% hydrogen peroxide. The biofilm formed in artificial pockets was more sensitive to PAD with and without pretreatment with hydrogen peroxide compared with those formed on titanium discs. CONCLUSIONS PAD using a LED was effective against periodontopathic bacterial species and reduced viability in biofilms but was not able to completely destroy complex biofilms. The use of PAD following pretreatment with hydrogen peroxide resulted in an additional increase in the antimicrobial activity which may represent a new alternative to treat periodontal and peri-implant infections thus warranting further testing in clinical studies.

A day in the life of PubMed: analysis of a typical day's query log.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize PubMed usage over a typical day and compare it to previous studies of user behavior on Web search engines. DESIGN: We performed a lexical and semantic analysis of 2,689,166 queries issued on PubMed over 24 consecutive hours on a typical day. MEASUREMENTS: We measured the number of queries, number of distinct users, queries per user, terms per query, common terms, Boolean operator use, common phrases, result set size, MeSH categories, used semantic measurements to group queries into sessions, and studied the addition and removal of terms from consecutive queries to gauge search strategies. RESULTS: The size of the result sets from a sample of queries showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks at approximately 3 and 100 results, suggesting that a large group of queries was tightly focused and another was broad. Like Web search engine sessions, most PubMed sessions consisted of a single query. However, PubMed queries contained more terms. CONCLUSION: PubMed's usage profile should be considered when educating users, building user interfaces, and developing future biomedical information retrieval systems.

The effects of exercise on self-rated sleep among adults with chronic sleep complaints

Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether and to what extent the observed effects on self-rated sleep in a previous study using a combined treatment program with physical exercise and sleep education can be attributed by the physical activity (PA) component. Methods The present study reports supplementary analysis of an already described and published study. Data were provided by a nonclinical sample of 98 normal-active adults with chronic initiating and the maintaining of sleep complaints. The additional analysis included sleep log, exercise log, and daily pedometer data which were collected during a baseline week and 6-week of a combined intervention. Results The results indicate that the number of steps (p = 0.02) and the duration of PA (p = 0.01) is significantly related to the improvement in subjective sleep measures and therefore reveal an independent effect within this combined sleep program. Sleep diary data (recuperation of sleep, number of awakenings after sleep onset, and wake time after sleep onset time) improved significant (all p < 0.01) over the intervention program. About 50% of the participants stated that the PA had an effect on their improvement. Conclusion Improvements on subjective sleep quality after a combined intervention cannot be attributed to the cognitive component alone, but PA has an independent effect. Adults with chronic sleep complaints benefit from exercise. Therefore structured PA should be implemented in any sleep management programs.

Feeding mastitis milk to organic dairy calves: effect on health and performance during suckling and on udder health at first calving

BackgroundInfection pathways of S. aureus udder infections in heifers are still not well understood. One hypothesis is that calves become infected with S. aureus via feeding mastitis milk. Especially on small-scale farms, pasteurisers are not economic. The purpose of this randomised comparative study was to investigate the influence of feeding milk containing S. aureus genotype B (SAGTB) on the health and development of calves and udder health of the respective heifers. Additionally, a method reducing the bacterial load to obtain safer feeding milk was tested. Thirty-four calves were fed mastitis milk from cows with subclinical SAGTB mastitis. One group was fed untreated milk (UMG). For the other group, milk was thermised at 61°C for one minute (heat treated milk group¿=¿HMG). After weaning, calves were followed up until first calving. A milk sample of these heifers was taken at first milking to compare udder health of both groups.ResultsThermisation of milk led to an effective reduction of S. aureus in the feeding milk. 78% of the analysed pools were free of S. aureus, a reduction of at least one log was obtained in the other pools.Quarter milk samples revealed that two heifers had a S. aureus intramammary infection, but caused by a genotype different from genotype B.During the suckling period, the UMG had a significantly higher incidence rate of 1.09 diarrhoea cases per 100 calf days at risk compared to 0.26 cases per 100 calf days in the HMG (p¿<¿0.05).ConclusionsUnder the conditions of this study, no effects of feeding milk containing SAGTB on udder health after first calving were observed. But a power analysis indicated that the sample size in the current setup is insufficient to allow for assessment on mastitis risk after SAGTB exposition, as a minimal number of 4 calves infected (vs. 0 in the HMG) would have shown significant effects. High bacterial load, however, was associated with an increased incidence rate of diarrhoea. Thus, thermisation as a minimal preventive measure before feeding mastitis milk to calves might be beneficial for maintaining calf health.

A retrospective comparative exploratory study on two methylentetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) polymorphisms in esophagogastric cancer: the A1298C MTHFR polymorphism is an independent prognostic factor only in neoadjuvantly treated gastric cancer patients.

BACKGROUND Methylentetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) plays a major role in folate metabolism and consequently could be an important factor for the efficacy of a treatment with 5-fluorouracil. Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of two well characterized constitutional MTHFR gene polymorphisms for primarily resected and neoadjuvantly treated esophagogastric adenocarcinomas. METHODS 569 patients from two centers were analyzed (gastric cancer: 218, carcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG II, III): 208 and esophagus (AEG I): 143). 369 patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery, 200 patients were resected without preoperative treatment. The MTHFR C677T and A1298C polymorphisms were determined in DNA from peripheral blood lymphozytes. Associations with prognosis, response and clinicopathological factors were analyzed retrospectively within a prospective database (chi-square, log-rank, cox regression). RESULTS Only the MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms had prognostic relevance in neoadjuvantly treated patients but it was not a predictor for response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The AC genotype of the MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms was significantly associated with worse outcome (p = 0.02, HR 1.47 (1.06-2.04). If neoadjuvantly treated patients were analyzed based on their tumor localization, the AC genotype of the MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms was a significant negative prognostic factor in patients with gastric cancer according to UICC 6th edition (gastric cancer including AEG type II, III: HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3-2.0, p = 0.001) and 7th edition (gastric cancer without AEG II, III: HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.5-5.7, p = 0.003), not for AEG I. For both definitions of gastric cancer the AC genotype was confirmed as an independent negative prognostic factor in cox regression analysis. In primarily resected patients neither the MTHFR A1298C nor the MTHFR C677T polymorphisms had prognostic impact. CONCLUSIONS The MTHFR A1298C polymorphisms was an independent prognostic factor in patients with neoadjuvantly treated gastric adenocarcinomas (according to both UICC 6th or 7th definitions for gastric cancer) but not in AEG I nor in primarily resected patients, which confirms the impact of this enzyme on chemotherapy associated outcome.

Velocity of early BCR-ABL transcript elimination as an optimized predictor of outcome in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients in chronic phase on treatment with imatinib

UNLABELLED Early assessment of response at 3 months of tyrosine kinase inhibitor treatment has become an important tool to predict favorable outcome. We sought to investigate the impact of relative changes of BCR-ABL transcript levels within the initial 3 months of therapy. In order to achieve accurate data for high BCR-ABL levels at diagnosis, beta glucuronidase (GUS) was used as a reference gene. Within the German CML-Study IV, samples of 408 imatinib-treated patients were available in a single laboratory for both times, diagnosis and 3 months on treatment. In total, 301 of these were treatment-naïve at sample collection. RESULTS (i) with regard to absolute transcript levels at diagnosis, no predictive cutoff could be identified; (ii) at 3 months, an individual reduction of BCR-ABL transcripts to the 0.35-fold of baseline level (0.46-log reduction, that is, roughly half-log) separated best (high risk: 16% of patients, 5-year overall survival (OS) 83% vs 98%, hazard ratio (HR) 6.3, P=0.001); (iii) at 3 months, a 6% BCR-ABL(IS) cutoff derived from BCR-ABL/GUS yielded a good and sensitive discrimination (high risk: 22% of patients, 5-year OS 85% vs 98%, HR 6.1, P=0.002). Patients at risk of disease progression can be identified precisely by the lack of a half-log reduction of BCR-ABL transcripts at 3 months.

A Passive WiFi Source Localization System based on Fine-grained Power-based Trilateration

Indoor localization systems become more interesting for researchers because of the attractiveness of business cases in various application fields. A WiFi-based passive localization system can provide user location information to third-party providers of positioning services. However, indoor localization techniques are prone to multipath and Non-Line Of Sight (NLOS) propagation, which lead to significant performance degradation. To overcome these problems, we provide a passive localization system for WiFi targets with several improved algorithms for localization. Through Software Defined Radio (SDR) techniques, we extract Channel Impulse Response (CIR) information at the physical layer. CIR is later adopted to mitigate the multipath fading problem. We propose to use a Nonlinear Regression (NLR) method to relate the filtered power information to propagation distances, which significantly improves the ranging accuracy compared to the commonly used log-distance path loss model. To mitigate the influence of ranging errors, a new trilateration algorithm is designed as well by combining Weighted Centroid and Constrained Weighted Least Square (WC-CWLS) algorithms. Experiment results show that our algorithm is robust against ranging errors and outperforms the linear least square algorithm and weighted centroid algorithm.

Prognostic factors and outcomes in primary urethral cancer: results from the international collaboration on primary urethral carcinoma.

PURPOSE To evaluate risk factors for survival in a large international cohort of patients with primary urethral cancer (PUC). METHODS A series of 154 patients (109 men, 45 women) were diagnosed with PUC in ten referral centers between 1993 and 2012. Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank test was used to investigate various potential prognostic factors for recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Multivariate models were constructed to evaluate independent risk factors for recurrence and death. RESULTS Median age at definitive treatment was 66 years (IQR 58-76). Histology was urothelial carcinoma in 72 (47 %), squamous cell carcinoma in 46 (30 %), adenocarcinoma in 17 (11 %), and mixed and other histology in 11 (7 %) and nine (6 %), respectively. A high degree of concordance between clinical and pathologic nodal staging (cN+/cN0 vs. pN+/pN0; p < 0.001) was noted. For clinical nodal staging, the corresponding sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy for predicting pathologic nodal stage were 92.8, 92.3, and 92.4 %, respectively. In multivariable Cox-regression analysis for patients staged cM0 at initial diagnosis, RFS was significantly associated with clinical nodal stage (p < 0.001), tumor location (p < 0.001), and age (p = 0.001), whereas clinical nodal stage was the only independent predictor for OS (p = 0.026). CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that clinical nodal stage is a critical parameter for outcomes in PUC.

Impact of perioperative chemotherapy on survival in patients with advanced primary urethral cancer: results of the international collaboration on primary urethral carcinoma.

BACKGROUND To investigate the impact of perioperative chemo(radio)therapy in advanced primary urethral carcinoma (PUC). PATIENTS AND METHODS A series of 124 patients (86 men, 38 women) were diagnosed with and underwent surgery for PUC in 10 referral centers between 1993 and 2012. Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank testing was used to investigate the impact of perioperative chemo(radio)therapy on overall survival (OS). The median follow-up was 21 months (mean: 32 months; interquartile range: 5-48). RESULTS Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (N-CRT) plus adjuvant chemotherapy (ACH), and ACH was delivered in 12 (31%), 6 (15%) and 21 (54%) of these patients, respectively. Receipt of NAC/N-CRT was associated with clinically node-positive disease (cN+; P = 0.033) and lower utilization of cystectomy at surgery (P = 0.015). The objective response rate to NAC and N-CRT was 25% and 33%, respectively. The 3-year OS for patients with objective response to neoadjuvant treatment (complete/partial response) was 100% and 58.3% for those with stable or progressive disease (P = 0.30). Of the 26 patients staged ≥cT3 and/or cN+ disease, 16 (62%) received perioperative chemo(radio)therapy and 10 upfront surgery without perioperative chemotherapy (38%). The 3-year OS for this locally advanced subset of patients (≥cT3 and/or cN+) who received NAC (N = 5), N-CRT (N = 3), surgery-only (N = 10) and surgery plus ACH (N = 8) was 100%, 100%, 50% and 20%, respectively (P = 0.016). Among these 26 patients, receipt of neoadjuvant treatment was significantly associated with improved 3-year relapse-free survival (RFS) (P = 0.022) and OS (P = 0.022). Proximal tumor location correlated with inferior 3-year RFS and OS (P = 0.056/0.005). CONCLUSION In this series, patients who received NAC/N-CRT for cT3 and/or cN+ PUC appeared to demonstrate improved survival compared with those who underwent upfront surgery with or without ACH.

Temperature and precipitation effects on δ13C depth profiles in SOM under temperate beech forests

Enrichment of 13C in SOM with soil depth is related to interacting processes influenced by temperature and precipitation. Our objectives were to derive climate effects on patterns of vertical δ13C values of soil organic matter (SOM) while minimizing the effect of confounding variables. We investigated vertical changes in δ13C values of SOM in 1-cm depth intervals in silvicultural mature beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forest ecosystems in northern Rhineland-Palatinate across gradients of MAT (7.9 to 9.7 °C mean annual temperature) and MAP (607 to 1085 mm mean annual precipitation) in winter 2011. Forest stands (n = 10) were chosen based on data sets provided by the Rhineland-Palatinate Forest Administration so that variations in these gradients occurred while other environmental factors like physico-chemical soil properties, tree species, stand age, exposition and precipitation (for the temperature gradient) or temperature (for the precipitation gradient) did not differ among study sites. From litter down to the mineral soil at 10 cm depth, soil organic carbon (SOC) content decreased (47.5 ± SE 0.1% to 2.5 ± 0.1%) while the δ13C values increased (− 29.4 ± 0.1‰ to − 26.1 ± 0.1‰). Litter of sites under higher MAP/lower MAT had lower δ13C values which was in line with literature data on climate driven plant physiological process. To compare the dimension of the vertical 13C enrichment, δ13C values were regressed linearly against log-transformed carbon contents yielding absolute values of these slopes (beta). Beta values ranged between 0.6 and 4.5 (range of r from − 0.7 to − 1.0; p < 0.01). Due to an assumed decay continuum and similar variations of δ13C values in litter and in 10 cm depth, we conclude that effects on isotope composition in the Oi layer continue vertically and therefore, δ13C values in litter do not solely control beta values. Beta values decreased with increasing MAT (r = − 0.83; p < 0.05). Reduced soil moisture and therefore both, reduced microbial activity and reduced downward transport of microbial cycled DOM (=13C enriched) might be responsible for less pronounced δ13C depth profiles in case of high temperatures. Greater C:N ratios (lower degradability) of the litter under higher temperatures likely contributed to these depth trends. Beta values increased with increasing MAP (r = 0.73; p < 0.05). We found decreasing C:N ratios in the mineral soil that possibly indicates higher decomposition under higher precipitation. Exclusion of the organic layers from linear regressions indicated a stronger impact of MAP on the development of δ13C depth profiles. Our results confirm temperature and precipitation effects on δ13C depth profiles and indicate stronger 13C enrichment under lower MAT/higher MAP. Therefore, time series of vertical δ13C depth profiles might provide insights into climate change effects.

SYNTHETIC PROBES FOR STUDYING TUFTSIN-RECEPTOR INTERACTIONS ON HUMAN POLYMORPHONUCLEAR LEUKOCYTES

Tuftsin is an immunopotentiating tetrapeptide of the sequence L-Thr-L-Lys-L-Pro-L-Arg with anti-microbial and anti-tumor enhancing capabilities. These enhancing functions are manifested through the host's granulocytes and monocytes. In delineating tuftsin's mechanism of action, both radiolabeled and fluorescent probes were synthesized. The radiolabeled probe of tuftsin, L-proly-3,4-('3)H(N) -tuftsin, was obtained through the synthesis and subsequent catalytic hydrogenation of L-3,4-dehydroprolyl ('3)-tuftsin using tritium gas. This procedure yielded a probe with a specific activity of 44.9 Ci/mmole. This radiolabeled probe of tuftsin was used in competitive inhibition studies with tuftsin, the tuftsin analogues Lys-Pro-Arg, Thr-Lys-Pro-Arg(NO(,2)) and (DELTA)('3)-pro('3) -tuftsin as well as with the chemotactic peptide f-Met-Leu-Phe. From the competitive binding curves, the K(,D) for tuftsin was estimated to be 80 nM, a value that approaches the concentration of tuftsin that evokes a half maximal biological response. The approximate Ki's for the tuftsin analogues (33 nM) approached that of tuftsin itself (40 nM). On the other hand, approximately a two log difference in the Ki was seen with the chemotactic tripeptide, indicating that tuftsin may indeed be acting through the chemotactic peptide receptor. This conclusion is further strengthened by studies using an N-terminal derivitized mono-fluoresceinated tuftsin probe and image intensification microscopy. These studies showed that like the chemotactic peptide, tuftsin initially binds to diffusely distributed receptors on the surface of human granulocytes. The tuftsin-receptor complexes then rapidly redistribute to form patches (5 min @ 37(DEGREES)C) which are then internalized. Whether redistribution and internalization of tuftsin-receptor complexes is crucial in effecting a biological response, or simply an intermediary point leading ultimately to degradation, is still not clear. This process, however, may provide the target cell with an early time point in modulating the biological effects of tuftsin through down-regulation of cell surface receptor sites. ^