The accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend

This project characterizes the accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend. A description of the escrowed dividend model is provided, and a comparison between this model and the benchmark model is realized. It is concluded that options on stocks with either low volatility, low dividend yield, low ex-dividend to maturity ratio or that are deep in or out of the money are reasonably priced with the escrowed dividend model.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Octopus Standard Automated Perimetry, Pulsar Perimetry, Moorfields Motion Displacement Test and Heidelberg Retinal Tomography in Glaucoma Detection - A Comparison of Diagnostic Accuracy

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy of 4 clinical instruments in the detection of glaucomatous damage. Methods: 102 eyes of 55 test subjects (Age mean = 66.5yrs, range = [39; 89]) underwent Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRTIII), (disc area<2.43); and standard automated perimetry (SAP) using Octopus (Dynamic); Pulsar (TOP); and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) (ESTA strategy). Eyes were separated into three groups 1) Healthy (H): IOP<21mmHg and healthy discs (clinical examination), 39 subjects, 78 eyes; 2) Glaucoma suspect (GS): Suspicious discs (clinical examination), 12 subjects, 15 eyes; 3) Glaucoma (G): progressive structural or functional loss, 14 subjects, 20 eyes. Clinical diagnostic precision was examined using the cut-off associated with the p<5% normative limit of MD (Octopus/Pulsar), PTD (MDT) and MRA (HRT) analysis. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were calculated for each instrument. Results: See table Conclusions: Despite the advantage of defining glaucoma suspects using clinical optic disc examination, the HRT did not yield significantly higher accuracy than functional measures. HRT, MDT and Octopus SAP yielded higher accuracy than Pulsar perimetry, although results did not reach statistical significance. Further studies are required to investigate the structure-function correlations between these instruments.

Comparing Predictive Accuracy of Real Estate Pricing Models: An Applied Study for the City of Montreal.

Rapport de recherche

Probe-level linear model fitting and mixture modeling results in high accuracy detection of differential gene expression

Affiliation: Institut de recherche en immunologie et en cancérologie, Université de Montréal

English grammar, adapted to the different classes of learners with an appendix, containing rules and observations, for assisting the more advanced students to write perspicuity and accuracy

UANL

The accuracy and reliability of plaster vs digital study models : a comparison of three different impression materials

Introduction: Le but de l’étude était d’examiner l’effet des matériaux à empreintes sur la précision et la fiabilité des modèles d’études numériques. Méthodes: Vingt-cinq paires de modèles en plâtre ont été choisies au hasard parmi les dossiers de la clinique d’orthodontie de l’Université de Montréal. Une empreinte en alginate (Kromopan 100), une empreinte en substitut d’alginate (Alginot), et une empreinte en PVS (Aquasil) ont été prises de chaque arcade pour tous les patients. Les empreintes ont été envoyées chez Orthobyte pour la coulée des modèles en plâtre et la numérisation des modèles numériques. Les analyses de Bolton 6 et 12, leurs mesures constituantes, le surplomb vertical (overbite), le surplomb horizontal (overjet) et la longueur d’arcade ont été utilisés pour comparaisons. Résultats : La corrélation entre mesures répétées était de bonne à excellente pour les modèles en plâtre et pour les modèles numériques. La tendance voulait que les mesures répétées sur les modèles en plâtre furent plus fiables. Il existait des différences statistiquement significatives pour l’analyse de Bolton 12, pour la longueur d’arcade mandibulaire, et pour le chevauchement mandibulaire, ce pour tous les matériaux à empreintes. La tendance observée fut que les mesures sur les modèles en plâtre étaient plus petites pour l’analyse de Bolton 12 mais plus grandes pour la longueur d’arcade et pour le chevauchement mandibulaire. Malgré les différences statistiquement significatives trouvées, ces différences n’avaient aucune signification clinique. Conclusions : La précision et la fiabilité du logiciel pour l’analyse complète des modèles numériques sont cliniquement acceptables quand on les compare avec les résultats de l’analyse traditionnelle sur modèles en plâtre.

Accuracy of outcome anticipation, but not gaze behavior, differs against left- and right-handed penalties in team-handball goalkeeping

Low perceptual familiarity with relatively rarer left-handed as opposed to more common right-handed individuals may result in athletes' poorer ability to anticipate the former's action intentions. Part of such left-right asymmetry in visual anticipation could be due to an inefficient gaze strategy during confrontation with left-handed individuals. To exemplify, observers may not mirror their gaze when viewing left- vs. right-handed actions but preferentially fixate on an opponent's right body side, irrespective of an opponent's handedness, owing to the predominant exposure to right-handed actions. So far empirical verification of such assumption, however, is lacking. Here we report on an experiment where team-handball goalkeepers' and non-goalkeepers' gaze behavior was recorded while they predicted throw direction of left- and right-handed 7-m penalties shown as videos on a computer monitor. As expected, goalkeepers were considerably more accurate than non-goalkeepers and prediction was better against right- than left-handed penalties. However, there was no indication of differences in gaze measures (i.e., number of fixations, overall and final fixation duration, time-course of horizontal or vertical fixation deviation) as a function of skill group or the penalty-takers' handedness. Findings suggest that inferior anticipation of left-handed compared to right-handed individuals' action intentions may not be associated with misalignment in gaze behavior. Rather, albeit looking similarly, accuracy differences could be due to observers' differential ability of picking up and interpreting the visual information provided by left- vs. right-handed movements.

A system to evaluate the accuracy of a visual mosaicking methodology

When underwater vehicles navigate close to the ocean floor, computer vision techniques can be applied to obtain motion estimates. A complete system to create visual mosaics of the seabed is described in this paper. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the constructed mosaic is difficult to evaluate. The use of a laboratory setup to obtain an accurate error measurement is proposed. The system consists on a robot arm carrying a downward looking camera. A pattern formed by a white background and a matrix of black dots uniformly distributed along the surveyed scene is used to find the exact image registration parameters. When the robot executes a trajectory (simulating the motion of a submersible), an image sequence is acquired by the camera. The estimated motion computed from the encoders of the robot is refined by detecting, to subpixel accuracy, the black dots of the image sequence, and computing the 2D projective transform which relates two consecutive images. The pattern is then substituted by a poster of the sea floor and the trajectory is executed again, acquiring the image sequence used to test the accuracy of the mosaicking system

Planar homography: accuracy analysis and applications

Projective homography sits at the heart of many problems in image registration. In addition to many methods for estimating the homography parameters (R.I. Hartley and A. Zisserman, 2000), analytical expressions to assess the accuracy of the transformation parameters have been proposed (A. Criminisi et al., 1999). We show that these expressions provide less accurate bounds than those based on the earlier results of Weng et al. (1989). The discrepancy becomes more critical in applications involving the integration of frame-to-frame homographies and their uncertainties, as in the reconstruction of terrain mosaics and the camera trajectory from flyover imagery. We demonstrate these issues through selected examples

Accuracy estimation of a new omnidirectional 3D vision sensor

We present a computer vision system that associates omnidirectional vision with structured light with the aim of obtaining depth information for a 360 degrees field of view. The approach proposed in this article combines an omnidirectional camera with a panoramic laser projector. The article shows how the sensor is modelled and its accuracy is proved by means of experimental results. The proposed sensor provides useful information for robot navigation applications, pipe inspection, 3D scene modelling etc

Using the R-MAPE index as a resistant measure of forecast accuracy

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Upland Nesting Prairie Shorebirds: Use of Managed Wetland Basins and Accuracy of Breeding Surveys

Wetlands in southern Alberta are often managed to benefit waterfowl and cattle production. Effects on other species usually are not examined. I determined the effect of managed wetlands on upland-nesting shorebirds in southern Alberta by comparing numbers of breeding willets (Catoptrophorus semipalmatus), marbled godwits (Limosa fedoa), and long-billed curlews (Numenius americanus) among areas of managed wetlands, natural wetland basins, and no wetland basins from 1995 to 2000. Surveys were carried out at 21 sites three times each year. Nine to ten of these areas (each 2 km2) were searched for nests annually from 1998–2000. Numbers of willets and marbled godwits and their nests were always highest in areas with managed wetlands, probably because almost all natural wetland basins were dry in this region in most years. Densities of willets seen during pre-incubation surveys averaged 2.3 birds/km2 in areas of managed wetlands, 0.4 in areas of natural wetland basins, and 0.1 in areas with no wetland basins. Nest densities of willets (one search each season) averaged 1.5, 0.9, and 0.3 nests/km2 in areas of managed, natural, and no wetland basins, respectively. Similarly, pre-incubation surveys averaged 1.6, 0.6, and 0.2 godwits/km2 in areas of managed, natural, and no wetland basins, and 1.2, 0.3, and 0.1 godwit nests/km2. For long-billed curlews, pre-incubation surveys averaged 0.1, 0.2, and 0.1 birds/km2, and 0, 0.2, and 0 nests/km2. Nest success was similar in areas with and without managed wetlands. Shallow managed wetlands in this region appear beneficial to willets and marbled godwits, but not necessarily to long-billed curlews. Only 8% of marked willets and godwits with nests in the area were seen or heard during surveys, compared with 29% of pre-laying individuals and 42% of birds with broods. This suggests that a low and variable percentage of these birds is counted during breeding bird surveys, likely limiting their ability to adequately monitor populations of these species.

Improvements to the accuracy of measurements of NO2 by zenith-sky visible spectrometers II: errors in zero using a more complete chemical model

Using a flexible chemical box model with full heterogeneous chemistry, intercepts of chemically modified Langley plots have been computed for the 5 years of zenith-sky NO2 data from Faraday in Antarctica (65°S). By using these intercepts as the effective amount in the reference spectrum, drifts in zero of total vertical NO2 were much reduced. The error in zero of total NO2 is ±0.03×1015 moleccm−2 from one year to another. This error is small enough to determine trends in midsummer and any variability in denoxification between midwinters. The technique also suggests a more sensitive method for determining N2O5 from zenith-sky NO2 data.

The accuracy of Doppler radar wind retrievals using insects as targets

Insect returns from the UK's Doppler weather radars were collected in the summers of 2007 and 2008, to ascertain their usefulness in providing information about boundary layer winds. Such observations could be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecasts of convective showers before precipitation begins. Significant numbers of insect returns were observed during daylight hours on a number of days through this period, when they were detected at up to 30 km range from the radars, and up to 2 km above sea level. The range of detectable insect returns was found to vary with time of year and temperature. There was also a very weak correlation with wind speed and direction. Use of a dual-polarized radar revealed that the insects did not orient themselves at random, but showed distinct evidence of common orientation on several days, sometimes at an angle to their direction of travel. Observation minus model background residuals of wind profiles showed greater bias and standard deviation than that of other wind measurement types, which may be due to the insects' headings/airspeeds and to imperfect data extraction. The method used here, similar to the Met Office's procedure for extracting precipitation returns, requires further development as clutter contamination remained one of the largest error contributors. Wind observations derived from the insect returns would then be useful for data assimilation applications.