Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of the Suite of Modeling Approaches used in the Large European Project VECTORS

We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and, in the future, models must be able to examine multiple factors affecting living marine resources such as interactions between: i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication, iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and/or iv) (over-)exploitation by fisheries. Statistical (correlative) approaches can be used to detect historical patterns which may not be relevant in the future. Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. New formulations are needed which (depending on the question) will need to strive for more realism in ecophysiology and behaviour of individuals, life history strategies of species, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales. Coupling existing models (e.g. physical, biological, economic) is one avenue that has proven successful. However, fundamental advancements are needed to address key issues such as the adaptive capacity of species/groups and ecosystems. The continued development of end-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) will be critical if we hope to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources including the ecological and economic costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies. Given the strengths and weaknesses of the various types of models reviewed here, confidence in projections of changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources will be increased by assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.

The role of anaerobic bacteria in the cystic fibrosis airway

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Anaerobic bacteria are not only normal commensals, but are also considered opportunistic pathogens and have been identified as persistent members of the lower airway community in people with cystic fibrosis of all ages and stages of disease. Currently, the role of anaerobic bacteria in cystic fibrosis lower airway disease is not well understood. Therefore, this review describes the recent studies relating to the potential pathophysiological role(s) of anaerobes within the cystic fibrosis lungs.

RECENT FINDINGS: The most frequently identified anaerobic bacteria in the lower airways are common to both cystic fibrosis and healthy lungs. Studies have shown that in cystic fibrosis, the relative abundance of anaerobes fluctuates in the lower airways with reduced lung function and increased inflammation associated with a decreased anaerobic load. However, anaerobes found within the lower airways also produce virulence factors, may cause a host inflammatory response and interact synergistically with recognized pathogens.

SUMMARY: Anaerobic bacteria are potentially members of the airway microbiota in health but could also contribute to the pathogenesis of lower airway disease in cystic fibrosis via both direct and indirect mechanisms. A personalized treatment strategy that maintains a normal microbial community may be possible in the future.

Herd management and livestock productivity in the Altai region of Western Mongolia

This thesis analyses the influence of qualitative and quantitative herbage production on seasonal rangelands, and of herd and pasture use strategies on feed intake, body mass development and reproductive performance of sheep and goats in the Altai mountain region of Bulgan county (soum) in Khovd province (aimag). This westernmost county of Mongolia is characterized by a very poor road network and thus very difficult access to regional and national markets. The thesis explores in this localized context the current rural development, the economic settings and political measures that affect the traditional extensive livestock husbandry system and its importance for rural livelihoods. Livestock management practices still follow the traditional transhumant mode, fully relying on natural pasture. This renders animal feeding very vulnerable to the highly variable climatic conditions which is one of many reasons for gradually declining quantity and quality of pasture vegetation. Small ruminants, and especially goats, are the main important species securing economic viability of their owners’ livelihood, and they are well adapted to the harsh continental climate and the present low input management practices. It is likely that small ruminants will keep their vital role for the rural community in the future, since the weak local infrastructure and slow market developments currently do not allow many income diversification options. Since the profitability of a single animal is low, animal numbers tend to increase, whereas herd management does not change. Possibilities to improve the current livestock management and thus herders’ livelihoods in an environmentally, economically and socially sustainable manner are simulated through bio-economic modelling and the implications are discussed at the regional and national scale. To increase the welfare of the local population, a substantial infrastructural and market development is needed, which needs to be accompanied by suitable pasture management schemes and policies

Our Landscape, Ourselves: Integrating Process and Traditional food Principles for Wellbeing + Resilience in the Swinomish Tribal Community

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Falls and the Social Isolation of Older Adults in the National Health and Aging Trends Study

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The Welsh Marches: Resilient Farmers? Exploring Farmers' Resilience to Extreme Weather Events in the Recent Past

In the 21st century climate change will cause a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across Europe. Investigating farmers’ resilience to extreme weather events in the past can be used to establish the inherent level of resilience farmers’ will have to respond to comparable events in the future. The Welsh Marches has experienced a range of extreme weather events including: heatwaves, flooding; prolonged rainfall; and heavy snowfall. To identify the resilience of farmers in the Marches farmers’ apparent vulnerabilities, coping capacity, social capital and adaptive capacity that have been exposed in past events are discussed. Rural isolation is identified as an exacerbating factor of farming vulnerability. Yet, this is also an apparent source of resilience as farmers are found to rely on high social capital to assist each other in emergency and challenging situations during extreme weather events. The paper concludes by indicating that more localised studies are required, situated within unique farming cultures. This will enable a more complete picture of farmers’ resilience across Europe to be established.

Lifetime and distribution of ozone and related pollutants in the eastern United States

Most major cities in the eastern United States have air quality deemed unhealthy by the EPA under a set of regulations known as the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The worst air quality in Maryland is measured in Edgewood, MD, a small community located along the Chesapeake Bay and generally downwind of Baltimore during hot, summertime days. Direct measurements and numerical simulations were used to investigate how meteorology and chemistry conspire to create adverse levels of photochemical smog especially at this coastal location. Ozone (O3) and oxidized reactive nitrogen (NOy), a family of ozone precursors, were measured over the Chesapeake Bay during a ten day experiment in July 2011 to better understand the formation of ozone over the Bay and its impact on coastal communities such as Edgewood. Ozone over the Bay during the afternoon was 10% to 20% higher than the closest upwind ground sites. A combination of complex boundary layer dynamics, deposition rates, and unaccounted marine emissions play an integral role in the regional maximum of ozone over the Bay. The CAMx regional air quality model was assessed and enhanced through comparison with data from NASA’s 2011 DISCOVER-AQ field campaign. Comparisons show a model overestimate of NOy by +86.2% and a model underestimate of formaldehyde (HCHO) by –28.3%. I present a revised model framework that better captures these observations and the response of ozone to reductions of precursor emissions. Incremental controls on electricity generating stations will produce greater benefits for surface ozone while additional controls on mobile sources may yield less benefit because cars emit less pollution than expected. Model results also indicate that as ozone concentrations improve with decreasing anthropogenic emissions, the photochemical lifetime of tropospheric ozone increases. The lifetime of ozone lengthens because the two primary gas-phase sinks for odd oxygen (Ox ≈ NO2 + O3) – attack by hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) on ozone and formation of nitrate – weaken with decreasing pollutant emissions. This unintended consequence of air quality regulation causes pollutants to persist longer in the atmosphere, and indicates that pollutant transport between states and countries will likely play a greater role in the future.

Submission Fees - A Tool in the Transition to Open Access?

Knowledge Exchange examined different routes in achieving the vision of 'having a layer of scholarly and scientific content openly available in the internet'. One of these routes involves exploring new developments in the future of publishing. Work is being undertaken investigating interesting alternative business models which could contribute to the transition to open access. In this light KE has commissioned a study investigating whether submission fees could play a role in a business model for Open Access journals. The general conclusion of the report bearing the title ‘Submission Fees a tool in the transition to open access?', written by Mark Ware, is that there are benefits to publishers in certain cases to switch to a model in which an author pays a fee when submitting an article. Especially journals with a high rejection rate might be interested in combining submission fees with article processing charges in order to make the transition to open access easier. In certain disciplines, notably economic and finance journals and in some areas of the experimental life sciences, submission fees are already common. Overall there seems to be an interest in the model but the risks, particularly those involved in any transition, are seen by the publishers to outweigh the perceived benefits. There is also a problem in that the advantages offered by submission fees are often general benefits that might improve the system but do not provide publishers and authors with direct incentives to change to open access. To support transition funders, institutions and publication funds could make it clear that submission fees would be an allowable cost. At present this is often unclear in their policies. Author acceptance of submission fees is critical to its success. It is an observable fact that authors will accept them in some circumstances. Author acceptance would require further study though. Based on the interviews and the modelling in the study one model in particular is regarded as the most suitable way to meet the current requirements (i.e. to strengthen open access to research publications). In this model authors pay a submission fee plus an Article Processing Fee and the article is subsequently made available in open access. Both fees are set at levels that balance acceptability with the author community with securing a meaningful mix of revenues for the Publisher.

Reconciling History and International Law: Territorial and Maritime Claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea

High-ranking Chinese military officials are often quoted in international media as stating that China cannot afford to lose even an inch of Chinese territory, as this territory has been passed down from Chinese ancestors. Such statements are not new in Chinese politics, but recently this narrative has made an important transition. While previously limited to disputes over land borders, such rhetoric is now routinely applied to disputes involving islands and maritime borders. China is increasingly oriented toward its maritime borders and seems unwilling to compromise on delimitation disputes, a transition mirrored by many states across the globe. In a similar vein, scholarship has found that territorial disputes are particularly intractable and volatile when compared with other types of disputes, and a large body of research has grappled with producing systematic knowledge of territorial conflict. Yet in this wide body of literature, an important question has remained largely unanswered - how do states determine which geographical areas will be included in their territorial and maritime claims? In other words, if nations are willing to fight and die for an inch of national territory, how do governments draw the boundaries of the nation? This dissertation uses in-depth case studies of some of the most prominent territorial and maritime disputes in East Asia to argue that domestic political processes play a dominant and previously under-explored role in both shaping claims and determining the nature of territorial and maritime disputes. China and Taiwan are particularly well suited for this type of investigation, as they are separate claimants in multiple disputes, yet they both draw upon the same historical record when establishing and justifying their claims. Leveraging fieldwork in Taiwan, China, and the US, this dissertation includes in-depth case studies of China’s and Taiwan’s respective claims in both the South China Sea and East China Sea disputes. Evidence from this dissertation indicates that officials in both China and Taiwan have struggled with how to reconcile history and international law when establishing their claims, and that this struggle has introduced ambiguity into China's and Taiwan's claims. Amid this process, domestic political dynamics have played a dominant role in shaping the options available and the potential for claims to change in the future. In Taiwan’s democratic system, where national identity is highly contested through party politics, opinions vary along a broad spectrum as to the proper borders of the nation, and there is considerable evidence that Taiwan’s claims may change in the near future. In contrast, within China’s single-party authoritarian political system, where nationalism is source of regime legitimacy, views on the proper interpretation of China’s boundaries do vary, but along a much more narrow range. In the dissertation’s final chapter, additional cases, such as South Korea’s position on Dokdo and Indonesia’s approach to the defense of Natuna are used as points of comparison to further clarify theoretical findings.

The European Parliament and the Future of Comitology after Lisbon: Lessons to be drawn from the Regulatory Procedure with Scrutiny for Delegated Acts

The history of comitology – the system of implementation committees that control the Commission in the execution of delegated powers – has been characterised by institutional tensions. The crux of these tensions has often been the role of the European Parliament and its quest to be granted powers equal to those of the Council. Over time this tension has been resolved through a series of inter-institutional agreements and Comitology Decisions, essentially giving the Parliament incremental increases in power. This process came to a head with the 2006 Comitology reform and the introduction of the regulatory procedure with scrutiny (RPS). After just over three years of experience with the RPS procedure, and having revised the entire acquis communautaire, the Treaty of Lisbon made has made it redundant through the creation of Delegated Acts (Article 290 TFEU), which gives the Parliament equal rights of oversight. This article aims to evaluate the practical implications that Delegated Acts will entail for the Parliament, principally by using the four years of experience with the RPS to better understand the challenges ahead. This analysis will be of interest to those following the study of comitology, formal and informal interinstitutional relations, and also to practitioners who will have to work with Delegated Acts in the future.

Numerical simulation of strain-adaptive bone remodelling in the ankle joint

Background: The use of artificial endoprostheses has become a routine procedure for knee and hip joints while ankle arthritis has traditionally been treated by means of arthrodesis. Due to its advantages, the implantation of endoprostheses is constantly increasing. While finite element analyses (FEA) of strain-adaptive bone remodelling have been carried out for the hip joint in previous studies, to our knowledge there are no investigations that have considered remodelling processes of the ankle joint. In order to evaluate and optimise new generation implants of the ankle joint, as well as to gain additional knowledge regarding the biomechanics, strain-adaptive bone remodelling has been calculated separately for the tibia and the talus after providing them with an implant. Methods: FE models of the bone-implant assembly for both the tibia and the talus have been developed. Bone characteristics such as the density distribution have been applied corresponding to CT scans. A force of 5,200 N, which corresponds to the compression force during normal walking of a person with a weight of 100 kg according to Stauffer et al., has been used in the simulation. The bone adaptation law, previously developed by our research team, has been used for the calculation of the remodelling processes. Results: A total bone mass loss of 2% in the tibia and 13% in the talus was calculated. The greater decline of density in the talus is due to its smaller size compared to the relatively large implant dimensions causing remodelling processes in the whole bone tissue. In the tibia, bone remodelling processes are only calculated in areas adjacent to the implant. Thus, a smaller bone mass loss than in the talus can be expected. There is a high agreement between the simulation results in the distal tibia and the literature regarding. Conclusions: In this study, strain-adaptive bone remodelling processes are simulated using the FE method. The results contribute to a better understanding of the biomechanical behaviour of the ankle joint and hence are useful for the optimisation of the implant geometry in the future.

Molecular and biochemical mechanisms involved in the toxicity of a marine cyanobacteria compound on cancer cell lines

In recent years marine biotechnology has revealed a crucial role in the future of bioindustry. Among the many marine resources, cyanobacteria have shown great potential in the production of bioactive compounds with diverse applicability. The pharmacological potential of these organisms has been one of the most explored areas in particular its antibacterial, antifungal and anticancer potential. This work was based on the assessment of potential anticancer compound E13010 F 5.4 isolated from marine cyanobacteria strain Synechocystis salina LEGE 06099. Thus the aim of this work was to explore molecular and biochemical mechanisms underlying the bioactivity detected in human cancer cells, specifically in lines RKO colon carcinoma and HT-29. The isolation of the compound was performed from biomass obtained by large-scale culture. To obtain the compound fractionation was carried and confirmation and isolation performed by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR), Thin Layer Chromatography (TLC) and High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). Cell viability assays were performed based on reduction of 3- (4,5-dimetiltiaziol-2-yl) -2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) to assess the cytotoxic potential of the compound. From the battery of cell lines RKO (colon carcinoma), HT-29 (colorectal adenocarcinoma), MG-63 (osteosarcoma) and T47D (breast carcinoma) the cell lines RKO and HT-29 were selected for elucidation of mechanisms of cytotoxicity. For the elucidation of the mechanisms involved in cytotoxicity the cell lines RKO and HT29 were exposed to the compound. A genomic approach based in the mRNA expression of genes involved in apoptosis and cell cycle by Real-Time PCR and a proteomic approach based on the separation of proteins by two-dimensional electrophoresis (2DGE) was performed. For mRNA expression were selected the genes RPL8, HPRT1, VDAC, SHMT2, CCNE, CCNB1, P21CIP, BCL-2 and BAD and for proteomics isoelectric focussing between 3 – 10 and molecular weight of 19 – 117 kDa separated by polyacrylamide gels (2DGE). The MTT results confirmed the reduction of the cell viability. The RT-PCR results for the expression of genes studied were not yet fully elucidative. For the cell line RKO there was a significant reduction in the expression of the gene P21CIP, and a tendency for reduction in the BAD gene expression and for increased expression of gene CCNB1, pointing to an effort for cell proliferation. In HT-29 cell line, there was a tendency for increase in the expression of P21CIP and BAD, which may explain the reduction in cell viability. The 2DGE results indicate proteomic patterns with differentially altered spots in the treated and control cells with both qualitative and quantitative differences, and differences in response between the RKO and HT-29 cell lines.

Assessment of positive parenting programmes in the Autonomous Region of the Basque Country (Spain)

This paper presents the results of a study aimed at identifying and assessing positive parenting programmes and activities carried out in the Autonomous Region of the Basque Country (ARBC), Spain. The study is a development of the III Inter-institutional Family Support Plan (2011), drafted by the Basque Government's Department of Family Policy and Community Development, and its aim is to offer a series of sound criteria for improving existing programmes and ensuring the correct design and implementation of new ones in the future. It analyses 129 programmes and gathers data relative to institutional management and coordination, format, quality of the established aims, adaptation to the theoretical proposal for an Optimal Positive Parenting Curriculum, scientific base, use of the framework of reference for competences, working method, assessment techniques, budgets and publicity, among others. The results highlight the good quality of the programmes' aims and content, and the poor systematic assessment of these same aspects. The study concludes with a series of recommendations for improving the initiatives, integrated into a proposal for a system of indicators to assess and implement positive parenting programmes.

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.