Allelopathic effects of three plant invaders on germination of native species: a field study

The ability of some invasive plant species to produce biochemical compounds toxic to native species, called allelopathy, is thought to be one of the reasons for their success when introduced to a novel range, an idea known as the Novel Weapons Hypothesis. However, support for this hypothesis mainly comes from bioassays and experiments conducted under controlled environments, whereas field evidence is rare. In a field experiment, we investigated whether three plant species invasive in Europe, Solidago gigantea, Impatiens glandulifera and Erigeron annuus, inhibit the germination of native species through allelopathy more than an adjacent native plant community. At three sites for each invasive species, we compared the germination of native species that were sown on invaded and non-invaded plots. Half of these plots were amended with activated carbon to reduce the influence of potential allelopathic compounds. The germination of sown seeds and of seeds from the seedbank was monitored over a period of 9 weeks. Activated carbon generally enhanced seed germination. This effect was equally pronounced in invaded and adjacent non-invaded plots, indicating that invasive species do not suppress germination more than a native plant community. In addition, more seeds germinated from the seedbank on invaded than on non-invaded soil, probably due to previous suppression of germination by the invasive species. Our field study does not provide evidence for the Novel Weapons Hypothesis with respect to the germination success of natives. Instead, our results suggest that if invasive species release allelopathic compounds that suppress germination, they do so to a similar degree as the native plant community.

Little evidence for release from herbivores as a driver of plant invasiveness from a multi-species herbivore-removal experiment

Enemy release is frequently posed as a main driver of invasiveness of alien species. However, an experimental multi-species test examining performance and herbivory of invasive alien, non-invasive alien and native plant species in the presence and absence of natural enemies is lacking. In a common garden experiment in Switzerland, we manipulated exposure of seven alien invasive, eight alien non-invasive and fourteen native species from six taxonomic groups to natural enemies (invertebrate herbivores), by applying a pesticide treatment under two different nutrient levels. We assessed biomass production, herbivore damage and the major herbivore taxa on plants. Across all species, plants gained significantly greater biomass under pesticide treatment. However, invasive, non-invasive and native species did not differ in their biomass response to pesticide treatment at either nutrient level. The proportion of leaves damaged on invasive species was significantly lower compared to native species, but not when compared to non-invasive species. However, the difference was lost when plant size was accounted for. There were no differences between invasive, non-invasive and native species in herbivore abundance. Our study offers little support for invertebrate herbivore release as a driver of plant invasiveness, but suggests that future enemy release studies should account for differences in plant size among species.

Application of a computational model for complex fluvial ecosystems: The population dynamics of zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha as a case study

The potential and adaptive flexibility of population dynamic P-systems (PDP) to study population dynamics suggests that they may be suitable for modelling complex fluvial ecosystems, characterized by a composition of dynamic habitats with many variables that interact simultaneously. Using as a model a reservoir occupied by the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, we designed a computational model based on P systems to study the population dynamics of larvae, in order to evaluate management actions to control or eradicate this invasive species. The population dynamics of this species was simulated under different scenarios ranging from the absence of water flow change to a weekly variation with different flow rates, to the actual hydrodynamic situation of an intermediate flow rate. Our results show that PDP models can be very useful tools to model complex, partially desynchronized, processes that work in parallel. This allows the study of complex hydroecological processes such as the one presented, where reproductive cycles, temperature and water dynamics are involved in the desynchronization of the population dynamics both, within areas and among them. The results obtained may be useful in the management of other reservoirs with similar hydrodynamic situations in which the presence of this invasive species has been documented.

Herbaceous plant species invading natural areas tend to have stronger adaptive root foraging than other naturalized species

Although plastic root-foraging responses are thought to be adaptive, as they may optimize nutrient capture of plants, this has rarely been tested. We investigated whether nutrient-foraging responses are adaptive, and whether they pre-adapt alien species to become natural-area invaders. We grew 12 pairs of congeneric species (i.e., 24 species) native to Europe in heterogeneous and homogeneous nutrient environments, and compared their foraging responses and performance. One species in each pair is a USA natural-area invader, and the other one is not. Within species, individuals with strong foraging responses, measured as plasticity in root diameter and specific root length, had a higher biomass. Among species, the ones with strong foraging responses, measured as plasticity in root length and root biomass, had a higher biomass. Our results therefore suggest that root foraging is an adaptive trait. Invasive species showed significantly stronger root-foraging responses than non-invasive species when measured as root diameter. Biomass accumulation was decreased in the heterogeneous vs. the homogeneous environment. In aboveground, but not belowground and total biomass, this decrease was smaller in invasive than in non-invasive species. Our results show that strong plastic root-foraging responses are adaptive, and suggest that it might aid in pre-adapting species to becoming natural-area invaders.

Numer and type of seeds introduced by footwear of travelers to Svalbard and germination success in 2008

Expanding visitation to Polar regions combined with climate warming increases the potential for alien species introduction and establishment. We quantified vascular plant propagule pressure associated with different groups of travelers to the high-Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, and evaluated the potential of introduced seeds to germinate under the most favorable average Svalbard soil temperature (10°C). We sampled the footwear of 259 travelers arriving by air to Svalbard during the summer of 2008, recording 1,019 seeds: a mean of 3.9 (±0.8) seeds per traveler. Assuming the seed influx is representative for the whole year, we estimate a yearly seed load of around 270,000 by this vector alone. Seeds of 53 species were identified from 17 families, with Poaceae having both highest diversity and number of seeds. Eight of the families identified are among those most invasive worldwide, while the majority of the species identified were non-native to Svalbard. The number of seeds was highest on footwear that had been used in forested and alpine areas in the 3 months prior to traveling to Svalbard, and increased with the amount of soil affixed to footwear. In total, 26% of the collected seeds germinated under simulated Svalbard conditions. Our results demonstrate high propagule transport through aviation to highly visited cold-climate regions and isolated islands is occurring. Alien species establishment is expected to increase with climate change, particularly in high latitude regions, making the need for regional management considerations a priority.

Characteristics of introduced Aphididae species, an endemic fly (Anatalanta aptera) and an introduced ground beetle (Merizodus soledadinus) on the Kerguelen Islands

The suite of environments and anthropogenic modifications of sub-Antarctic islands provide key opportunities to improve our understanding of the potential consequences of climate change and biological species invasions on terrestrial ecosystems. The profound impact of human introduced invasive species on indigenous biota, and the facilitation of establishment as a result of changing thermal conditions, has been well documented on the French sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands (South Indian Ocean). The present study provides an overview of the vulnerability of sub-Antarctic terrestrial communities with respect to two interacting factors, namely climate change and alien insects. We present datasets assimilated by our teams on the Kerguelen Islands since 1974, coupled with a review of the literature, to evaluate the mechanism and impact of biological invasions in this region. First, we consider recent climatic trends of the Antarctic region, and its potential influence on the establishment, distribution and abundance of alien insects, using as examples one fly and one beetle species. Second, we consider to what extent limited gene pools may restrict alien species' colonisations. Finally, we consider the vulnerability of native communities to aliens using the examples of one beetle, one fly, and five aphid species taking into consideration their additional impact as plant virus vectors. We conclude that the evidence assimilated from the sub-Antarctic islands can be applied to more complex temperate continental systems as well as further developing international guidelines to minimise the impact of alien species.

European mink (Mustela lutreola) and American mink (Neovison vison) detection histories in Northern Spain between 2000 and 2011

Understanding changes over time in the distribution of interacting native and invasive species that may be symptomatic of competitive exclusion is critical to identify the need for and effectiveness of management interventions. Occupancy models greatly increase the robustness of inference that can be made from presence/absence data when species are imperfectly detected, and recent novel developments allow for the quantification of the strength of interaction between pairs of species. We used a two-species multi-season occupancy model to quantify the impact of the invasive American mink on the native European mink in Spain through the analysis of their co-occurrence pattern over twelve years (2000 - 2011) in the entire Spanish range of European mink distribution, where both species were detected by live trapping but American mink were culled. We detected a negative temporal trend in the rate of occupancy of European mink and a simultaneous positive trend in the occupancy of American mink. The species co-occurred less often than expected and the native mink was more likely to become extinct from sites occupied by the invasive species. Removal of American mink resulted in a high probability of local extinction where it co-occurred with the endemic mink, but the overall increase in the probability of occupancy over the last decade indicates that the ongoing management is failing to halt its spread. More intensive culling effort where both species co-exist as well as in adjacent areas where the invasive American mink is found at high densities is required in order to stop thedecline of European mink.

Adaptation to enemy shifts: rapid resistance evolution to local Vibrio spp. in invasive Pacific oysters

One hypothesis for the success of invasive species is reduced pathogen burden, resulting from a release from infections or high immunological fitness (low immunopathology) of invaders. Despite of strong selection exerted on the host, the evolutionary response of invaders to newly acquired pathogens has rarely been considered. The two independent and genetically distinct invasions of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas into the North Sea represent an ideal model system to study fast evolutionary responses of invasive populations. By exposing both invasion sources to ubiquitous and phylogenetically diverse pathogens (Vibrio spp.) we demonstrate that within a few generations hosts adapted to sympatric pathogen communities. However, this local adaptation only became apparent in selective environments, i.e. at elevated temperatures reflecting patterns of disease outbreaks in natural populations. Resistance against sympatric and allopatric Vibrio spp. strains was dominantly inherited in crosses between both invasion sources, resulting in an overall higher resistance of admixed individuals than pure lines. Therefore we suggest that a simple genetic resistance mechanism of the host is matched to a common virulence mechanism shared by local Vibrio strains. This combination might have facilitated a fast evolutionary response that can explain another dimension of why invasive species can be so successful in newly invaded ranges.

Metodología para la estimación de indicadores armonizados a partir de los inventarios forestales nacionales europeos con especial énfasis en la biodiversidad forestal

Durante las últimas décadas el objetivo principal de la silvicultura y la gestión forestal en Europa ha pasado de ser la producción de madera a ser la gestión sostenible de los ecosistemas, por lo que se deben considerar todos los bienes y servicios que proporcionan los bosques. En consecuencia, es necesario contar con información forestal periódica de diversos indicadores forestales a nivel europeo para apoyar el desarrollo y la implementación de políticas medioambientales y que se realice una gestión adecuada. Para ello, se requiere un seguimiento intensivo sobre el estado de los bosques, por lo que los Inventarios Forestales Nacionales (IFN), (principal fuente de información forestal a gran escala), han aumentado el número de variables muestreadas para cumplir con los crecientes requerimientos de información. Sin embargo, las estimaciones proporcionadas por los diferentes países no son fácilmente comparables debido a las diferencias en las definiciones, los diseños de muestreo, las variables medidas y los protocolos de medición. Por esto, la armonización de los datos que proporcionan los diferentes países es fundamental para la contar con una información forestal sólida y fiable en la Unión europea (UE). La presente tesis tiene dos objetivos principales: (i) establecer el diseño de una metodología para evaluar la biodiversidad forestal en el marco del Inventario forestal nacional de España teniendo en cuenta las diferentes iniciativas nacionales e internacionales, con el objetivo de producir estimaciones comparables con las de otros países de la UE y (ii) armonizar los indicadores más relevantes para satisfacer los requerimientos nacionales e internacionales. Como consecuencia del estudio realizado para alcanzar el primer objetivo, la metodología diseñada para estimar la biodiversidad fue adoptada por el Tercer Inventario forestal nacional. Ésta se componía de indicadores agrupados en: cobertura del suelo, composición de árboles y especies de arbustos, riqueza de especies herbáceas y helechos, especies amenazadas, estructura, madera muerta, y líquenes epífitos. Tras el análisis del diseño metodológico y de los datos proporcionados, se observó la conveniencia de modificarla con el fin de optimizar los costes, viabilidad, calidad y cantidad de los datos registrados. En consecuencia, en el Cuarto Inventario Forestal Nacional se aplica una metodología modificada, puesto que se eliminó el muestreo de especies herbáceas y helechos, de líquenes epífitos y de especies amenazadas, se modificaron los protocolos de la toma de datos de estructura y madera muerta y se añadió el muestreo de especies invasoras, edad, ramoneo y grado de naturalidad de la masa. En lo que se refiere al segundo objetivo, se ha avanzado en la armonización de tres grupos de variables considerados como relevantes en el marco de los IFN: los indicadores de vegetación no arbórea (que juegan un papel relevante en los ecosistemas, es donde existe la mayor diversidad de plantas y hasta ahora no se conocían los datos muestreados en los IFN), la determinación de los árboles añosos (que tienen un importante papel como nicho ecológico y su identificación es especialmente relevante para la evaluación de la biodiversidad forestal) y el bosque disponible para el suministro de madera (indicador básico de los requerimientos internacionales de información forestal). Se llevó a cabo un estudio completo de la posible armonización de los indicadores de la vegetación no arbórea en los IFN. Para ello, se identificaron y analizaron las diferentes definiciones y diseños de muestreo empleados por los IFN, se establecieron definiciones de referencia y se propusieron y analizaron dos indicadores que pudiesen ser armonizados: MSC (mean species cover) que corresponde a la media de la fracción de cabida cubierta de cada especie por tipo de bosque y MTC (mean total cover). Se estableció una nueva metodología que permite identificar los árboles añosos con los datos proporcionados por los inventarios forestales nacionales con el objetivo de proporcionar una herramienta eficaz para facilitar la gestión forestal considerando la diversidad de los sistemas forestales. Se analizó el concepto de "bosque disponible para el suministro de madera" (FAWS) estudiando la consistencia de la información internacional disponible con el fin de armonizar su estimación y de proporcionar recomendaciones para satisfacer los requerimientos europeos. Como resultado, se elaboró una nueva definición de referencia de FAWS (que será adoptada por el proceso paneuropeo) y se analiza el impacto de la adopción de esta nueva definición en siete países europeos. El trabajo realizado en esta tesis, puede facilitar el suministrar y/o armonizar parcial o totalmente casi la mitad de los indicadores de información forestal solicitados por los requerimientos internacionales (47%). De éstos, prácticamente un 85% tienen relación con los datos inventariados empleando la metodología propuesta para la estimación de la biodiversidad forestal, y el resto, con el establecimiento de la definición de bosque disponible para el suministro de madera. No obstante, y pese a que esta tesis supone un avance importante, queda patente que las necesidades de información forestal son cambiantes y es imprescindible continuar el proceso de armonización de los IFN europeos. ABSTRACT Over the last few decades, the objectives on forestry and forest management in Europe have shifted from being primarily focused on wood production to sustainable ecosystem management, which should consider all the goods and services provided by the forest. Therefore, there is a continued need for forest indicators and assessments at EU level to support the development and implementation of a number of European environmental policies and to conduct a proper forest management. To address these questions, intensive monitoring on the status of forests is required. Therefore, the scope of National Forest Inventories (NFIs), (primary source of data for national and large-area assessments), has been broadened to include new variables to meet these increasing information requirements. However, estimates produced by different countries are not easily comparable because of differences in NFI definitions, plot configurations, measured variables, and measurement protocols. As consequence, harmonizing data produced at national level is essential for the production of sound EU forest information. The present thesis has two main aims: (i) to establish a methodology design to assess forest biodiversity in the frame of the Spanish National Forest Inventory taking into account the different national and international initiatives with the intention to produce comparable estimates with other EU countries and (ii) to harmonize relevant indicators for national and international requirements. In consequence of the work done related to the first objective, the established methodology to estimate forest biodiversity was adopted and launched under the Third National Forest Inventory. It was composed of indicators grouped into: cover, woody species composition, richness of herbaceous species and ferns, endangered species, stand structure, dead wood, and epiphytic lichens. This methodology was analyzed considering the provided data, time costs, feasibility, and requirements. Consequently, in the ongoing Fourth National Forest Inventory a modified methodology is applied: sampling of herbaceous species and ferns, epiphytic lichens and endangered species were removed, protocols regarding structure and deadwood were modified, and sampling of invasive species, age, browsing impact and naturalness were added. As regards the second objective, progress has been made in harmonizing three groups of variables considered relevant in the context of IFN: Indicators of non-tree vegetation (which play an important role in forest ecosystems, it is where the highest diversity of plants occur and so far the related sampled data in NFIs were not known), the identification of old-growth trees (which have an important role as ecological niche and its identification is especially relevant for the assessment of forest biodiversity) and the available forest for wood supply (basic indicator of international forestry information requirements). A complete analysis of ground vegetation harmonization possibilities within NFIs frame was carried on by identifying and analyzing the different definitions and sampling techniques used by NFIs, providing reference definitions related to ground vegetation and proposing and analyzing two ground vegetation harmonized indicators: “Mean species cover” (MSC) and “Mean total cover” (MTC) for shrubs by European forest categories. A new methodology based on NFI data was established with the aim to provide an efficient tool for policy makers to estimate the number of old-growth trees and thus to be able to perform the analysis of the effect of forest management on the diversity associated to forest systems. The concept of “forest available for wood supply” (FAWS) was discussed and clarified, analyzing the consistency of the available international information on FAWS in order to provide recommendations for data harmonization at European level regarding National Forest Inventories (NFIs). As a result, a new reference definition of FAWS was provided (which will be adopted in the pan-European process) and the consequences of the use of this new definition in seven European countries are analyzed. The studies carried on in this thesis, can facilitate the supply and/or harmonization partially or fully of almost half of the forest indicators (47%) needed for international requirements. Of these, nearly 85% are related to inventoried data using the proposed methodology for the estimation of forest biodiversity, and the rest, with the establishment of the definition of forest available for wood supply. However, despite this thesis imply an important development, forest information needs are changing and it is imperative to continue the process of harmonization of European NFIs.

Genetic diversity and susceptibility to Vip3Aa20 protein in Brazilian populations of Helicoverpa armigera and Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) was officially reported in Brazil in 2013. This species is closely related to Helicoverpa zea (Boddie) and has caused significant crop damage in Brazil. The use of genetically modified crops expressing insecticidal protein from Bacillus thuringiensis (Berliner) has been one of the control tactics for managing these pests. Genetically modified maize expressing Vip3Aa20 was approved to commercial use in Brazil in 2009. Understanding the genetic diversity and the susceptibility to B. thuringiensis proteins in H. armigera and H. zea populations in Brazil are crucial for establishing Insect Resistance Management (IRM) programs in Brazil. Therefore, the objectives of this study were: (a) to infer demographic parameters and genetic structure of H. armigera and H. zea Brazil; (b) to assess the intra and interspecific gene flow and genetic diversity of H. armigera and H. zea; and (c) to evaluate the susceptibility to Vip3Aa20 protein in H. armigera and H. zea populations of Brazil. A phylogeographic analysis of field H. armigera and H. zea populations was performed using a partial sequence data from the cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene. H. armigera individuals were most prevalent on dicotyledonous hosts and H. zea individuals were most prevalent on maize crops. Both species showed signs of demographic expansion and no genetic structure. High genetic diversity and wide distribution were observed for H. armigera. A joint analysis indicated the presence of Chinese, Indian, and European lineages within the Brazilian populations of H. armigera. In the cross-species amplification study, seven microsatellite loci were amplified; and showed a potential hybrid offspring in natural conditions. Interespecific analyses using the same microsatellite loci with Brazilian H. armigera and H. zea in compare to the USA H. zea were also conducted. When analyses were performed within each species, 10 microsatellites were used for H. armigera, and eight for H. zea. We detected high intraspecific gene flow in populations of H. armigera and H. zea from Brazil and H. zea from the USA. Genetic diversity was similar for both species. However, H. armigera was more similar to H. zea from Brazil than H. zea from the USA and some putative hybrid individuals were found in Brazilian populations.Tthere was low gene flow between Brazilian and USA H. zea. The baseline susceptibility to Vip3Aa20 resulted in low interpopulation variation for H. zea (3-fold) and for H. armigera (5-fold), based on LC50. H. armigera was more tolerant to Vip3Aa20 than H. zea (≈ 40 to 75-fold, based on CL50). The diagnostic concentration for susceptibility monitoring, based on CL99, was fairly high (6,400 ng Vip3Aa20/cm2) for H. zea and not validated for H. armigera due to the high amount of protein needed for bioassays. Implementing IRM strategies to Vip3Aa20 in H. armigera and H. zea will be of a great challenge in Brazil, mainly due to the low susceptibility to Vip3Aa20 and high genetic diversity and gene flow in both species, besides a potential of hybrid individuals between H. armigera and H. zea under field conditions.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Post Fire Emergency Rehabilitation Treatments on Soil Degradation and Erosion Control in Semi-Arid Mediterranean Areas of the Spanish South East

In this study, we seeded a native plant species and applied a mulch of chopped wood originating from the same burned area to avoid the establishment of invasive species. We evaluated four treatments: (1) seeding, (2) mulch, (3) seeding and mulch, and (4) control. Our objective was to increase plant recovery and to minimize the soil erosion and degradation. The study was conducted in Alicante, Spain in Torremanzanas forest of the semi-arid Mediterranean bioclimatic area after the wildfire of November, 2002. During three years of monitoring, we find that combined treatment: seeding and mulch increased the post fire plant recovery 20% approximately more than the rest of treatments and the control plots. We also found that seven months after treating mulch and seeding and mulch treatments presented a gain of soil: +5.18 to + 5.24 mm while the seeding treatment and control plots presented soil loss rates of: −0.48 to −0.49 mm. In addition, mulch treatment significantly decreased soil compaction to the half, and increased the infiltration capacity to 40 ml.mn−1 more than in plots without mulch, as well as increased the soil respiration to the double compared with no mulch plots. Work in progress confirms the positive effect of chopped wood as mulching treatment with or without seeding on the soil protection against soil erosion, and the amelioration of bio-physical properties after wildfires in the Mediterranean semi-arid burned areas.

Assessment of created wetland performance in Illinois /

Wetlands are extremely valuable natural features that have decreased significantly in number over time in Illinois and the United States ... Their important functions include flood protection, water conservation in times of drought, groundwater recharge, improvement of water quality through sediment reduction and contaminant removal, and providing habitat for native animals and plants, including many sensitive and state-listed threatened and endangered species ... Due to a federal "no net loss" policy on wetlands adopted through executive order by President George H. Bush in 1990, as well as a prevailing heightened interest in conservation in general, there is currently considerable interest in the restoration and creation of wetlands. Both Section-404 of the Clean Water Act of 1972 and the Swampbuster Provision of the Food Securities Act of 1985 require compensation or mitigation for the loss of wetlands. A number of federal and state programs such as Section 319 of the Clean Water Act and the Conservation Reserve Program within the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) encourage wetland restoration and creation. In addition, various conservation organizations, such as The Nature Conservancy and Ducks Unlimited are very active in wetland restoration. Despite wetland restoration efforts and the national goal of no net loss, wetlands and wetland functions continue to be lost due to degradation of existing wetlands ... Unfortunately, no reliable information exists on the quality of existing wetlands or on trends in wetland quality over time ... The functional quality of existing wetlands is likely decreasing in many areas due to the combined effects of habitat fragmentation, alteration of hydrology, invasive species, and continued input of nutrients and pollutants. Furthermore, it is still debatable whether created or restored wetlands can adequately replace the suite of ecological functions provided by natural wetlands ... and the failure of many wetland compensation projects contributes to a continued national net loss of wetland functions ... The need for post-construction site monitoring and assessment of created and restored wetlands to evaluate functional success is widely recognized. ... At this time, there is little agreement on how to assess the success on quality of wetland restorations or creations.

Mollusca Non-Grata: The influence of top-down control and residence time on the abundance, distribution, and behavior of non-native marine snails in Washington State

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Presence-absence versus abundance data for monitoring threatened species

Effective detection of population trend is crucial for managing threatened species. Little theory exists, however, to assist managers in choosing the most cost-effective monitoring techniques for diagnosing trend. We present a framework for determining the optimal monitoring strategy by simulating a manager collecting data on a declining species, the Chestnut-rumped Hylacola (Hylacola pyrrhopygia parkeri), to determine whether the species should be listed under the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List. We compared the efficiencies of two strategies for detecting trend, abundance, and presence-absence surveys, underfinancial constraints. One might expect the abundance surveys to be superior under all circumstances because more information is collected at each site. Nevertheless, the presence-absence data can be collected at more sites because the surveyor is not obliged to spend a fixed amount of time at each site. The optimal strategy for monitoring was very dependent on the budget available. Under some circumstances, presence-absence surveys outperformed abundance surveys for diagnosing the IUCN Red List categories cost-effectively. Abundance surveys were best if the species was expected to be recorded more than 16 times/year; otherwise, presence-absence surveys were best. The relationship between the strategies we investigated is likely to be relevant for many comparisons of presence-absence or abundance data. Managers of any cryptic or low-density species who hope to maximize their success of estimating trend should find an application for our results.