A Theory of Quantitative Inference Applied to a Mechanical Design Compiler

This thesis presents the ideas underlying a computer program that takes as input a schematic of a mechanical or hydraulic power transmission system, plus specifications and a utility function, and returns catalog numbers from predefined catalogs for the optimal selection of components implementing the design. Unlike programs for designing single components or systems, the program provides the designer with a high level "language" in which to compose new designs. It then performs some of the detailed design process. The process of "compilation" is based on a formalization of quantitative inferences about hierarchically organized sets of artifacts and operating conditions. This allows the design compilation without the exhaustive enumeration of alternatives.

Perceiving Illumination Inconsistencies in Scenes

The human visual system is adept at detecting and encoding statistical regularities in its spatio-temporal environment. Here we report an unexpected failure of this ability in the context of perceiving inconsistencies in illumination distributions across a scene. Contrary to predictions from previous studies [Enns and Rensink, 1990; Sun and Perona, 1996a, 1996b, 1997], we find that the visual system displays a remarkable lack of sensitivity to illumination inconsistencies, both in experimental stimuli and in images of real scenes. Our results allow us to draw inferences regarding how the visual system encodes illumination distributions across scenes. Specifically, they suggest that the visual system does not verify the global consistency of locally derived estimates of illumination direction.

The single principle of compositional data analysis, continuing fallacies, confusions and misunderstandings and some suggested remedies

In any discipline, where uncertainty and variability are present, it is important to have principles which are accepted as inviolate and which should therefore drive statistical modelling, statistical analysis of data and any inferences from such an analysis. Despite the fact that two such principles have existed over the last two decades and from these a sensible, meaningful methodology has been developed for the statistical analysis of compositional data, the application of inappropriate and/or meaningless methods persists in many areas of application. This paper identifies at least ten common fallacies and confusions in compositional data analysis with illustrative examples and provides readers with necessary, and hopefully sufficient, arguments to persuade the culprits why and how they should amend their ways

Modelling of Mercury’s surface composition and remote detection from the orbit with the BepiColombo Mercury Planetary Orbiter

It can be assumed that the composition of Mercury’s thin gas envelope (exosphere) is related to the composition of the planets crustal materials. If this relationship is true, then inferences regarding the bulk chemistry of the planet might be made from a thorough exospheric study. The most vexing of all unsolved problems is the uncertainty in the source of each component. Historically, it has been believed that H and He come primarily from the solar wind, while Na and K originate from volatilized materials partitioned between Mercury’s crust and meteoritic impactors. The processes that eject atoms and molecules into the exosphere of Mercury are generally considered to be thermal vaporization, photonstimulated desorption (PSD), impact vaporization, and ion sputtering. Each of these processes has its own temporal and spatial dependence. The exosphere is strongly influenced by Mercury’s highly elliptical orbit and rapid orbital speed. As a consequence the surface undergoes large fluctuations in temperature and experiences differences of insolation with longitude. We will discuss these processes but focus more on the expected surface composition and solar wind particle sputtering which releases material like Ca and other elements from the surface minerals and discuss the relevance of composition modelling

A study on the phylogeny and the ecology of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria using a new molecular marker based on the gene amoB

L'agricultura i la industrialització han causat un augment significatiu del nombre d'ambients rics en amoni. La presència de compostos nitrogenats redueix la qualitat de l'aigua, causant problemes de toxicitat, deteriorant el medi ambient i fins i tot afectant la salut humana. En conseqüència, la nitrificació s'ha convertit en un procés global que afecta al cicle del nitrogen a la biosfera. Els bacteris oxidadors d'amoni (AOB) són els responsables de l'oxidació de l'amoni a nitrit, i juguen un paper essencial en el cicle del nitrogen. Els primers oxidadors d'amoni foren aïllats a finals del segle XIX, però la lentitud del seu creixement i les dificultats per cultivar-los feren que fins als anys 80, amb els primers estudis emprant el gen 16SrDNA, no s'assolís un coneixement complert d'aquest grup bacterià. Actualment les bases de dades contenen multitud d'entrades amb seqüències corresponents a AOB. L'objectiu d'aquest treball era trobar, desenvolupar i avaluar eines útils i fiables per a l'estudi dels AOB en mostres ambientals. En aquest treball primer descrivim la utilització de la hibridació in situ amb fluorescència (FISH), mitjançant l'aplicació de sondes amb diana en el 16SrRNA dels AOB. La FISH ens va permetre detectar i recomptar aquest grup bacterià; no obstant, aquest mètode no permetia la detecció de noves seqüències, pel que es necessitava una nova eina. Amb aquesta intenció vam aplicar la seqüència de la sonda Nso1225 en una PCR. El fet d'amplificar específicament un fragment del 16SrDNA dels AOB va suposar el desenvolupament d'una nova eina molecular que permetia detectar la presència i diversitat d'aquests bacteris en ambients naturals. Malgrat tot, algunes seqüències pertanyents a bacteris no oxidadors d'amoni del subgrup β dels proteobacteris, eren també obtingudes amb aquesta tècnica. Així mateix, un dels inconvenients de l'ús del 16SrDNA com a marcador és la impossibilitat de detectar simultàniament els AOB que pertanyen als subgrups β i γ dels proteobacteris. El gen amoA, que codifica per la subunitat A de l'enzim amoni monooxigenasa (AMO), era aleshores àmpliament utilitzat com a marcador per a la detecció dels AOB. En aquest treball també descrivim la utilització d'aquest marcador en mostres procedents d'un reactor SBR. Aquest marcador ens va permetre identificar seqüències de AOB en la mostra, però la necessitat de detectar amoA mitjançant clonatge fa que l'ús d'aquest marcador requereixi massa temps per a la seva utilització com a eina en estudis d'ecologia microbiana amb moltes mostres. Per altra banda, alguns autors han assenyalat l'obtenció de seqüències de no AOB en utilitzar amoA en un protocol de PCR-DGGE. Amb la finalitat d'obtenir una eina ràpida i rigorosa per detectar i identificar els AOB, vam desenvolupar un joc nou d'oligonucleòtids amb diana en el gen amoB, que codifica per a la subunitat transmembrana de l'enzim AMO. Aquest gen ha demostrat ser un bon marcador molecular pels AOB, oferint, sense tenir en compte afiliacions filogenètiques, una elevada especificitat, sensibilitat i fiabilitat. En aquest treball també presentem una anàlisi de RT-PCR basada en la detecció del gen amoB per a la quantificació del gènere Nitrosococcus. El nou joc d'oligonucleòtids dissenyat permet una enumeració altament específica i sensible de tots els γ-Nitrosococcus coneguts. Finalment, vam realitzar un estudi poligènic, comparant i avaluant els marcadors amoA, amoB i 16SrDNA, i vàrem construir un arbre filogenètic combinat. Com a resultat concloem que amoB és un marcador adequat per a la detecció i identificació dels AOB en mostres ambientals, proporcionant alhora agrupacions consistents en fer inferències filogenètiques. Per altra banda, la seqüència sencera del gen 16S rDNA és indicada com a marcador en estudis amb finalitats taxonòmiques i filogenètiques en treballar amb cultius purs de AOB.

A fisiologia da pele de rato é modificada pela idade

Os modelos animais têm sido úteis para estudar mecanismos específicos que afetam a pele humana. É o caso do envelhecimento e das alterações micromecânicas que determinam o enrugamento (a formação de rugas) nos ratinhos irradiados com UV. Estes modelos permitiram perceber que o envelhecimento envolve muitas respostas mecânicas peculiares que não podem ser explicadas pela deformação homogénea da pele. No entanto, a diferença entre o tempo de vida destas espécies afeta também os processos e este é um aspeto principal a ter em conta. Este projeto é direcionado à comparação das propriedades cutâneas de dois grupos de ratos Wistar com diferentes idades – ratos jovens-adultos (n=7, 20-24 semanas) e adultos-velhos (n=5, 48-72 semanas). Medições não-invasivas de perda transepidérmica de água (PTEA), hidratação superficial (MoistureMeter) e biomecânica (Reviscometer e Cutometer por MPA80) foram realizadas nas zonas dorsais (pescoço, dorso-posterior) do animal durante 5 dias, permitindo comparações estatísticas entre grupos. Os resultados não revelaram diferenças significativas para a PTEA, firmeza ou viscoelasticidade entre os dois grupos. Contudo, foi notada uma diminuição significativa, próxima de 40%, da hidratação da pele no grupo dos ratos adultos-velhos. Estes resultados, apesar de preliminares, se fizermos a translação para os seres humanos poderiam ser úteis para avaliar mudanças relacionadas à idade em processos como a recuperação cutânea, ou eficácia / segurança de pensos, onde a hidratação é um factor determinante. Asua potencial utilização para a predição da eficácia e/ou segurança dos produtos de aplicação tópica para idosos em comparação aos adultos merecem ser exploradas.

A comparison of diatom phosphorus transfer functions and export coefficient models as tools for reconstructing lake nutrient histories

1. We compared the baseline phosphorus (P) concentrations inferred by diatom-P transfer functions and export coefficient models at 62 lakes in Great Britain to assess whether the techniques produce similar estimates of historical nutrient status. 2. There was a strong linear relationship between the two sets of values over the whole total P (TP) gradient (2-200 mu g TP L-1). However, a systematic bias was observed with the diatom model producing the higher values in 46 lakes (of which values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in 21). The export coefficient model gave the higher values in 10 lakes (of which the values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in only 4). 3. The difference between baseline and present-day TP concentrations was calculated to compare the extent of eutrophication inferred by the two sets of model output. There was generally poor agreement between the amounts of change estimated by the two approaches. The discrepancy in both the baseline values and the degree of change inferred by the models was greatest in the shallow and more productive sites. 4. Both approaches were applied to two lakes in the English Lake District where long-term P data exist, to assess how well the models track measured P concentrations since approximately 1850. There was good agreement between the pre-enrichment TP concentrations generated by the models. The diatom model paralleled the steeper rise in maximum soluble reactive P (SRP) more closely than the gradual increase in annual mean TP in both lakes. The export coefficient model produced a closer fit to observed annual mean TP concentrations for both sites, tracking the changes in total external nutrient loading. 5. A combined approach is recommended, with the diatom model employed to reflect the nature and timing of the in-lake response to changes in nutrient loading, and the export coefficient model used to establish the origins and extent of changes in the external load and to assess potential reduction in loading under different management scenarios. 6. However, caution must be exercised when applying these models to shallow lakes where the export coefficient model TP estimate will not include internal P loading from lake sediments and where the diatom TP inferences may over-estimate TP concentrations because of the high abundance of benthic taxa, many of which are poor indicators of trophic state.

Archaeological evidence for the first Mesolithic occupation of the Western Isles of Scotland

The examination of eroding coastal dunes at the prehistoric site of Northton, Harris, has produced the first archaeological evidence of Mesolithic activity in the Western Isles in the form of two midden-related deposits. The first phase of Mesolithic activity is dated to 7060-6650 cal. Bc based on AMS dating of charred hazelnut shells. This discovery appears to validate the frequent pollen-based inferences of Mesolithic impact for the area and, as predicted, allows the Atlantic fringe of Scotland to become part of the European Mesolithic mainstream. A detailed pedological analysis also suggests that these early midden layers may have been amended during the Neolithic period as part of a possible phase of cultivation.

National and sub-national assessments of soil organic carbon stocks and changes: The GEFSOC modelling system

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a vital role in ecosystem function, determining soil fertility, water holding capacity and susceptibility to land degradation. In addition, SOC is related to atmospheric CO, levels with soils having the potential for C release or sequestration, depending on land use, land management and climate. The United Nations Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and other United Nations Conventions to Combat Desertification and on Biodiversity all recognize the importance of SOC and point to the need for quantification of SOC stocks and changes. An understanding of SOC stocks and changes at the national and regional scale is necessary to further our understanding of the global C cycle, to assess the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change and to aid policy makers in making land use/management decisions. Several studies have considered SOC stocks at the plot scale, but these are site specific and of limited value in making inferences about larger areas. Some studies have used empirical methods to estimate SOC stocks and changes at the regional scale, but such studies are limited in their ability to project future changes, and most have been carried out using temperate data sets. The computational method outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been used to estimate SOC stock changes at the regional scale in several studies, including a recent study considering five contrasting eco regions. This 'one step' approach fails to account for the dynamic manner in which SOC changes are likely to occur following changes in land use and land management. A dynamic modelling approach allows estimates to be made in a manner that accounts for the underlying processes leading to SOC change. Ecosystem models, designed for site scale applications can be linked to spatial databases, giving spatially explicit results that allow geographic areas of change in SOC stocks to be identified. Some studies have used variations on this approach to estimate SOC stock changes at the sub-national and national scale for areas of the USA and Europe and at the watershed scale for areas of Mexico and Cuba. However, a need remained for a national and regional scale, spatially explicit system that is generically applicable and can be applied to as wide a range of soil types, climates and land uses as possible. The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System was developed in response to this need. The GEFSOC system allows estimates of SOC stocks and changes to be made for diverse conditions, providing essential information for countries wishing to take part in an emerging C market, and bringing us closer to an understanding of the future role of soils in the global C cycle. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Database Engines for Geographical Information Systems

Our ability to identify, acquire, store, enquire on and analyse data is increasing as never before, especially in the GIS field. Technologies are becoming available to manage a wider variety of data and to make intelligent inferences on that data. The mainstream arrival of large-scale database engines is not far away. The experience of using the first such products tells us that they will radically change data management in the GIS field.

The effect of a large freshwater perturbation on the glacial north Atlantic Ocean using a coupled general circulation model

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the "strength of the overturning circulation" is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors' model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project's reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

Less-is-more effects without the recognition heuristic

Inferences consistent with “recognition-based” decision-making may be drawn for various reasons other than recognition alone. We demonstrate that, for 2-alternative forced-choice decision tasks, less-is-more effects (reduced performance with additional learning) are not restricted to recognition-based inference but can also be seen in circumstances where inference is knowledge-based but item knowledge is limited. One reason why such effects may not be observed more widely is the dependence of the effect on specific values for the validity of recognition and knowledge cues. We show that both recognition and knowledge validity may vary as a function of the number of items recognized. The implications of these findings for the special nature of recognition information, and for the investigation of recognition-based inference, are discussed

The automation and evaluation of nested clade phylogeographic analysis

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.

The automation of nested clade phylogeographic analysis

ANeCA is a fully automated implementation of Nested Clade Phylogeographic Analysis. This was originally developed by Templeton and colleagues, and has been used to infer, from the pattern of gene sequence polymorphisms in a geographically structured population, the historical demographic processes that have shaped its evolution. Until now it has been necessary to perform large parts of the procedure manually. We provide a program that will take data in Nexus sequential format, and directly output a set of inferences. The software also includes TCS v1.18 and GeoDis v2.2 as part of automation.

On the structural differences between markers and genomic AC microsatellites

AC microsatellites have proved particularly useful as genetic markers. For some purposes, such as in population biology, the inferences drawn depend on the quantitative values of their mutation rates. This, together with intrinsic biological interest, has led to widespread study of microsatellite mutational mechanisms. Now, however, inconsistencies are appearing in the results of marker-based versus non-marker-based studies of mutational mechanisms. The reasons for this have not been investigated, but one possibility, pursued here, is that the differences result from structural differences between markers and genomic microsatellites. Here we report a comparison between the CEPH AC marker microsatellites and the global population of AC microsatellites in the human genome. AC marker microsatellites are longer than the global average. Controlling for length, marker microsatellites contain on average fewer interruptions, and have longer segments, than their genomic counterparts. Related to this, marker microsatellites show a greater tendency to concentrate the majority of their repeats into one segment. These differences plausibly result from scientists selecting markers for their high polymorphism. In addition to the structural differences, there are differences in the base composition of flanking sequences, marker flanking regions being richer in C and G and poorer in A and T. Our results indicate that there are profound differences between marker and genomic microsatellites that almost certainly affect their mutation rates. There is a need for a unified model of mutational mechanisms that accounts for both marker-derived and genomic observations. A suggestion is made as to how this might be done.