ACE research vignette 017: The new venture mortality myth

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of internatinal Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Dr Jonathan Levie of the University of Strathclyde notes wide and persistent gaps between perceptions and measures of new business mortality, and discusses possible implications.

Telephone support to rural and remote patients with heart failure : the Chronic Heart failure Assessment by Telephone (CHAT) study

Background Heart failure (HF) remains a condition with high morbidity and mortality. We tested a telephone support strategy to reduce major events in rural and remote Australians with HF, who have limited healthcare access. Telephone support comprised an interactive telecommunication software tool (TeleWatch) with follow-up by trained cardiac nurses. Methods Patients with a general practice (GP) diagnosis of HF were randomised to usual care (UC) or UC and telephone support intervention (UC+I) using a cluster design involving 143 GPs throughout Australia. Patients were followed for 12 months. The primary end-point was the Packer clinical composite score. Secondary end-points included hospitalisation for any cause, death or hospitalisation, as well as HF hospitalisation. Results Four hundred and five patients were randomised into CHAT. Patients were well matched at baseline for key demographic variables. The primary end-point of the Packer Score was not different between the two groups (P=0.98), although more patients improved with UC+I. There were fewer patients hospitalised for any cause (74 versus 114, adjusted HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.50-0.89], p=0.006) and who died or were hospitalised (89 versus 124, adjusted HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.53 – 0.92], p=0.011), in the UC+I vs UC group. HF hospitalisations were reduced with UC+I (23 versus 35, adjusted HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.44 – 1.38]), although this was not significant (p=0.43). There were 16 deaths in the UC group and 17 in the UC+I group (p=0.43). Conclusions Although no difference was observed in the primary end-point of CHAT (Packer composite score), UC+I significantly reduced the number of HF patients hospitalised amongst a rural and remote cohort. These data suggest that telephone support may be an efficacious approach to improve clinical outcomes in rural and remote HF patients.

Nurse staffing levels and the incidence of mortality and morbidity in the adult intensive care unit : a literature review

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that nurse staffing levels, among many other factors in the hospital setting, contribute to adverse patient outcomes. Concerns about patient safety and quality of care have resulted in numerous studies being conducted to examine the relationship between nurse staffing levels and the incidence of adverse patient events in both general wards and intensive care units. AIM: The aim of this paper is to review literature published in the previous 10 years which examines the relationship between nurse staffing levels and the incidence of mortality and morbidity in adult intensive care unit patients. METHODS: A literature search from 2002 to 2011 using the MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PsycINFO, and Australian digital thesis databases was undertaken. The keywords used were: intensive care; critical care; staffing; nurse staffing; understaffing; nurse-patient ratios; adverse outcomes; mortality; ventilator-associated pneumonia; ventilator-acquired pneumonia; infection; length of stay; pressure ulcer/injury; unplanned extubation; medication error; readmission; myocardial infarction; and renal failure. A total of 19 articles were included in the review. Outcomes of interest are patient mortality and morbidity, particularly infection and pressure ulcers. RESULTS: Most of the studies were observational in nature with variables obtained retrospectively from large hospital databases. Nurse staffing measures and patient outcomes varied widely across the studies. While an overall statistical association between increased nurse staffing levels and decreased adverse patient outcomes was not found in this review, most studies concluded that a trend exists between increased nurse staffing levels and decreased adverse events. CONCLUSION: While an overall statistical association between increased nurse staffing levels and decreased adverse patient outcomes was not found in this review, most studies demonstrated a trend between increased nurse staffing levels and decreased adverse patient outcomes in the intensive care unit which is consistent with previous literature. While further more robust research methodologies need to be tested in order to more confidently demonstrate this association and decrease the influence of the many other confounders to patient outcomes; this would be difficult to achieve in this field of research.

Not all systematic reviews are systematic : a meta-review of the quality of systematic reviews for non-invasive remote monitoring in heart failure

Remote monitoring for heart failure has been evaluated in numerous systematic reviews. The aim of this meta-review was to appraise their quality and synthesise results. We electronically searched online databases, performed a forward citation search and hand-searched bibliographies. Systematic reviews of remote monitoring interventions that were used for surveillance of heart failure patients were included. Seven (41%) systematic reviews pooled results for meta-analysis. Eight (47%) considered all non-invasive remote monitoring strategies. Five (29%) focused on telemonitoring. Four (24%) included both non-invasive and invasive technologies. According to AMSTAR criteria, ten (58%) systematic reviews were of poor methodological quality. In high quality reviews, the relative risk of mortality in patients who received remote monitoring ranged from 0.53 (95% CI=0.29-0.96) to 0.88 (95% CI=0.76-1.01). High quality reviews also reported that remote monitoring reduced the relative risk of all-cause (0.52; 95% CI=0.28-0.96 to 0.96; 95% CI=0.90–1.03) and heart failure-related hospitalizations (0.72; 95% CI=0.64–0.81 to RR 0.79; 95% CI=0.67-0.94) and, as a consequence, healthcare costs. As the high quality reviews reported that remote monitoring reduced hospitalizations, mortality and healthcare costs, research efforts should now be directed towards optimising these interventions in preparation for more widespread implementation.

Not all systematic reviews are systematic : a meta-review of the quality of current systematic reviews and meta-analyses for remote monitoring in heart failure

Background/aims: Remote monitoring for heart failure has not only been evaluated in a large number of randomised controlled trials, but also in many systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The aim of this meta-review was to identify, appraise and synthesise existing systematic reviews that have evaluated the effects of remote monitoring in heart failure. Methods: Using a Cochrane methodology, we electronically searched all relevant online databases and search engines, performed a forward citation search as well as hand-searched bibliographies. Only fully published systematic reviews of invasive and/or non-invasive remote monitoring interventions were included. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Results: Sixty-five publications from 3333 citations were identified. Seventeen fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Quality varied with A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR scores) ranging from 2 to 11 (mean 5.88). Seven reviews (41%) pooled results from individual studies for meta-analysis. Eight (47%) considered all non-invasive remote monitoring strategies. Four (24%) focused specifically on telemonitoring. Four (24%) included studies investigating both non-invasive and invasive technologies. Population characteristics of the included studies were not reported consistently. Mortality and hospitalisations were the most frequently reported outcomes 12 (70%). Only five reviews (29%) reported healthcare costs and compliance. A high degree of heterogeneity was reported in many of the meta-analyses. Conclusions: These results should be considered in context of two negative RCTs of remote monitoring for heart failure that have been published since the meta-analyses (TIM-HF and Tele-HF). However, high quality reviews demonstrated improved mortality, quality of life, reduction in hospitalisations and healthcare costs.

Effective technologies for noninvasive remote monitoring in heart failure

Background Trials of new technologies to remotely monitor for signs and symptoms of worsening heart failure are continually emerging. The extent to which technological differences impact the effectiveness of non-invasive remote monitoring for heart failure management is unknown. Objective To examine the effect of specific technology used for non-invasive remote monitoring of people with heart failure on all-cause mortality and heart failure-related hospitalisations. Methods A sub-analysis of a large systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted. Studies were stratified according to the specific type of technology used and separate meta-analyses were performed. Four different types of non-invasive remote monitoring technologies were identified including structured telephone calls, videophone, interactive voice response devices and telemonitoring. Results Only structured telephone calls and telemonitoring were effective in reducing the risk of all-cause mortality (RR 0.87; 95% CI=0.75-1.01; p=0.06 and 0.62; 95% CI=0.50-0.77; p<0.0001) and heart failure-related hospitalisations (RR 0.77; 95% CI=0.68-0.87; p<0.001) and 0.75; 95% CI=0.63-0.91; p=0.003). More research data is required for videophone and interactive voice response technologies. Conclusions This sub-analysis identified that only two of the four specific technologies used for non-invasive remote monitoring in heart failure improved outcomes. When results of studies that involved these disparate technologies were combined in previous meta-analyses, significant improvements in outcomes were identified. As such, this study has highlighted implications for future meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials focused on evaluating the effectiveness of remote monitoring in heart failure.

A randomized controlled trial of self-management programme improves health-related outcomes of older people with heart failure

Aims This paper is a report on the effectiveness of a self-management programme based on the self-efficacy construct, in older people with heart failure. Background Heart failure is a major health problem worldwide, with high mortality and morbidity, making it a leading cause of hospitalization. Heart failure is associated with a complex set of symptoms that arise from problems in fluid and sodium retention. Hence, managing salt and fluid intake is important and can be enhanced by improving patients' self-efficacy in changing their behaviour. Design Randomized controlled trial. Methods Heart failure patients attending cardiac clinics in northern Taiwan from October 2006–May 2007 were randomly assigned to two groups: control (n = 46) and intervention (n = 47). The intervention group received a 12-week self-management programme that emphasized self-monitoring of salt/fluid intake and heart failure-related symptoms. Data were collected at baseline as well as 4 and 12 weeks later. Data analysis to test the hypotheses used repeated-measures anova models. Results Participants who received the intervention programme had significantly better self-efficacy for salt and fluid control, self-management behaviour and their heart failure-related symptoms were significantly lower than participants in the control group. However, the two groups did not differ significantly in health service use. Conclusion The self-management programme improved self-efficacy for salt and fluid control, self-management behaviours, and decreased heart failure-related symptoms in older Taiwanese outpatients with heart failure. Nursing interventions to improve health-related outcomes for patients with heart failure should emphasize self-efficacy in the self-management of their disease.

Is age a factor in the success or failure of remote monitoring in heart failure? Telemonitoring and structured telephone support in elderly heart failure patients

Background There are few data regarding the effectiveness of remote monitoring for older people with heart failure. We conducted a post-hoc sub-analysis of a previously published large Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis of relevant randomized controlled trials to determine whether structured telephone support and telemonitoring were effective in this population. Methods A post hoc sub-analysis of a systematic review and meta-analysis that applied the Cochrane methodology was conducted. Meta-analyses of all-cause mortality, all-cause hospitalizations and heart failure-related hospitalizations were performed for studies where the mean or median age of participants was 70 or more years. Results The mean or median age of participants was 70 or more years in eight of the 16 (n=2,659/5,613; 47%) structured telephone support studies and four of the 11 (n=894/2,710; 33%) telemonitoring studies. Structured telephone support (RR 0.80; 95% CI=0.63-1.00) and telemonitoring (RR 0.56; 95% CI=0.41-0.76) interventions reduced mortality. Structured telephone support interventions reduced heart failure-related hospitalizations (RR 0.81; 95% CI=0.67-0.99). Conclusion Despite a systematic bias towards recruitment of individuals younger than the epidemiological average into the randomized controlled trials, older people with heart failure did benefit from structured telephone support and telemonitoring. These post-hoc sub-analysis results were similar to overall effects observed in the main meta-analysis. While further research is required to confirm these observational findings, the evidence at hand indicates that discrimination by age alone may be not be appropriate when inviting participation in a remote monitoring service for heart failure.

Parent's socio-economic status and social support as risks for child mortality : consideration of health equity in The Gambia

A matched case-control study of mortality to children under age five was conducted to consider associations with parents' socio-economic status and social support in the Farafenni Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS). Cases and controls were selected from Farafenni DSS, matched on date of birth, and parents were interviewed about personal resources and social networks. Parents with the lowest personal socio-economic status and social support were identified. Multivariate multinomial regression was used to consider whether the children of these parents were at increased risk of either infant or 1-4 mortality, in separate models using either parents' characteristics. There was no benefit found for higher SES or better social support with respect to child mortality. Children of fathers who had the poorest social support had lower 1-4 mortality risk (OR=0.52, p=0.037). Given that socio-economic status was not associated with child mortality, it seems unlikely that the explanation for the link between father's social support and mortality is linked to resource availability. Explanations for the risk effect of father's social ties may lie in decision-making around health maintenance and health care for children.

Demographics and survivial of a cohort of blood and breast cancer patients who developed heart failure following cancer treatment

Background/Aim: Cardiotoxicity resulting in heart failure is a devastating complication of cancer therapy. It is possible that a patient may survive cancer only to develop heart failure (HF), which is more deadly than cancer. The aim of this project was to profile the characteristics of patients at risk of cancer treatment induced heart failure. Methods: Linked Health Data Analysis of Queensland Cancer Registry (QCR) from 1996-2009, Death Registry and Hospital Administration records for HF and chemotherapy admissions were reviewed. Index heart failure admission must have occurred after the date of cancer registry entry. Results: A total of 15,987 patients were included in this analysis; 1,062 (6.6%) had chemotherapy+HF admission (51.4% Female) and 14,925 (93.4%) chemotherapy_no HF admission. Median age of chemotherapy+HF patients was 67 years (IQR 58 to 75) vs. 54 years (IQR 44 to 64) for chemotherapy_no HF admission. Chemotherapy+HF patients had increased risk of all cause mortality (HR 2.79 [95% CI 2.58-3.02] and 1.67 [95% CI, 1.54 to 1.81] after adjusting for age, sex, marital status, country of birth, cancer site and chemotherapy dose). Index HF admission occurred within one year of cancer diagnosis in 47% of HF patients with 80% of patinets having there index admission with 3 years. The number of chemotherapy cycles was not associated with significant reduction in survival time in chemotherapy+HF patients. Mean survival for heart failure patients was 5.3 years (95% CI, 4.99 - 5.62) vs.9.57 years (95% CI, 9.47-9.68) for chemotherapy_no HF admission patients. Conclusion: All-cause mortality was 67% higher in patients diagnosed with HF following chemotherapy in adjusted analysis for covariates. Methods to improve and better coordinate of the interdisciplinary care for cancer patients with HF involving cardiologists and oncologists are required, including evidence-based guidelines for the comprehensive assessment, monitoring and management of this cohort.

Provincial mortality in South Africa, 2000 - priority-setting for now and a benchmark for the future

Background. Cause-of-death statistics are an essential component of health information. Despite improvements, underregistration and misclassification of causes make it difficult to interpret the official death statistics. Objective. To estimate consistent cause-specific death rates for the year 2000 and to identify the leading causes of death and premature mortality in the provinces. Methods. Total number of deaths and population size were estimated using the Actuarial Society of South Africa ASSA2000 AIDS and demographic model. Cause-of-death profiles based on Statistics South Africa's 15% sample, adjusted for misclassification of deaths due to ill-defined causes and AIDS deaths due to indicator conditions, were applied to the total deaths by age and sex. Age-standardised rates and years of life lost were calculated using age weighting and discounting. Results. Life expectancy in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga is about 10 years lower than that in the Western Cape, the province with the lowest mortality rate. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of premature mortality for all provinces. Mortality due to pre-transitional causes, such as diarrhoea, is more pronounced in the poorer and more rural provinces. In contrast, non-communicable disease mortality is similar across all provinces, although the cause profiles differ. Injury mortality rates are particularly high in provinces with large metropolitan areas and in Mpumalanga. Conclusion. The quadruple burden experienced in all provinces requires a broad range of interventions, including improved access to health care; ensuring that basic needs such as those related to water and sanitation are met; disease and injury prevention; and promotion of a healthy lifestyle. High death rates as a result of HIV/AIDS highlight the urgent need to accelerate the implementation of the treatment and prevention plan. In addition, there is an urgent need to improve the cause-of-death data system to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics at health district level.

The Queensland liver transplant programme: The first two years

Orthotopic liver transplantation began in Brisbane in January 1985. During the first two years of the programme an assessment committee evaluated 55 patients (38 adults, 17 children). Patients were either accepted for transplantation, rejected as unsuitable or deferred for elective reassessment. All of the 10 adults who were rejected for transplantation because they had 'too advanced' disease died within four months of assessment. Six children who were accepted for transplantation died before a suitable donor liver could be found. In the first two years, 21 orthotopic liver transplantations were performed on 18 patients (adults, 13 patients; children, five patients). Fifteen of 21 grafts were procured from within Queensland. Twelve (67%) patients are alive at three to 23 months and all have been discharged from hospital. Deaths in adults were due to sepsis (three patients), aspiration pneumonitis (one patient), rejection and hepatic artery thrombosis (one patient) and the recurrence of a hepatocellular carcinoma five months after discharge from hospital (one patient). Two patients underwent a second transplantation procedure because of chronic rejection at four months and at 11 months, respectively, after the initial operation. One patient received a second transplant for primary graft failure at four days after the operation. A scoring system which considered the presence of pre-operative patient factors, such as coma, ascites, malnutrition and previous abdominal surgery, partly predicted the operative blood loss and patient survival. In conclusion, orthotopic liver transplantation is being performed in Australia with survival rates that are comparable with those of established overseas units.

Effects of oral calcium sensitizers on experimental heart failure

Suun kautta annosteltava kalsiumherkistäjä parantaa sydämen vajaatoimintaan liittyvää pumppausvajetta kokeellisissa sydämen vajaatoimintamalleissa Huolimatta viime vuosikymmenien lääketieteellisestä kehityksestä krooninen sydämen vajaatoiminta on silti edelleen vakava, elämänlaatua voimakkaasti rajoittava sairaus. Kalsiumherkistäjät ovat uusi, sydämen pumppausvoimaa lisäävä lääkeryhmä. Levosimendaani, kotimaista alkuperää oleva kalsiumherkistäjä, on kliinisessä käytössä akuutin vajaatoiminnan hoitoon suonensisäisesti ja lyhytaikaisesti annosteltavana valmisteena. Levosimendaanilla on aktiivinen metaboliitti, OR-1896, jonka oletetaan olevan vuorokauden mittaisen levosimendaani-infuusion jälkeen havaittujen useita päiviä kestävien hyödyllisisten vaikutuksisten takana. Levosimendaanin kroonisen, suun kautta tapahtuvan annostelun vaikutuksista tieto on vähäisempää, mutta sillä näyttää olevan positiivisia vaikutuksia potilaiden raportoimana. FM Marjut Louhelainen on selvittänyt väitöskirjassaan suun kautta annosteltavan levosimendaanin ja sen pitkäkestoisen aktiivisen metaboliitin vaikutuksia kroonisen vajaatoiminnan hoidossa käyttämällä sekä hypertensiivisen sydäntaudin että 2 tyypin diabeteksen komplisoimaan sydäninfarktin kokeellisia malleja. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin lisäksi vajaatoimintaan johtavia molekyylitason tapahtumia sydänlihaksessa. Tutkimuksessa osoitettiin, että krooninen suun kautta annosteltu hoito sekä kalsiumherkistäjä levosimendaanilla että sen aktiivisella metaboliitilla estää hypertensiiviseen sydämen vajaatoiminnan aikaasaamaa sydämen uudelleenmuovaantumista ja siihen liittyvää kuolleisuutta. Nämä vaikutukset välittyivät vähentyneen sydänlihassoluhypertrofian, solukuolleisuuden ja neurohumaraalisen aktivaation kautta. Levosimendaanin ja OR-1896:n osoitettiin myös parantavan sydämen pumppausfunktiota tyyppi 2 diabeteksen komplisoimassa sydäninfarktissa. Ei-diabeettiseen tilanteeseen verrattuna diabetekseen liittyvä infarktin jälkeinen vajaatoiminnan kehitys oli yhteydessä lisääntyneeseen tulehdukseen, fibroosiin, solukuolemaan, neurohumoraaliseen aktivaatioon ja ennenaikaiseen kudoksen vanhenemiseen. Sekä levosimendaani, että OR-1869 vähensivät tulehduksen, fibroosin ja solukuoleman merkkejä ja vaimensi neurohumoraalista aktivaatiota. OR-1896 myös vähensi solujen vanhenemiseen liittyvien merkkiaineiden ilmentymistä. Väitöskirjassa todettiin, että suun kautta annosteltuna sekä levosimendaani, että sen aktiivinen metaboliitti OR-1896, omaavat terapeuttista potentiaalia sekä hypertensiivisen sydäntaudin hoitoon että sydäninfarktin jälkeisen vajaatoiminnan estoon. FM Marjut Louhelaisen farmakologian alaan kuuluva väitöskirja Effects of oral calcium sensitizers on experimental heart failure tarkastetaan Helsingin yliopiston Lääketieteellisessä tiedekunnassa perjantaina 29.01.2010 klo 12 (Biomedicum Helsinki, luentosali 2, Haartmaninkatu 8, Helsinki). Vastaväittäjänä toimii professori Raimo Tuominen, Helsingin yliopiston Farmasian tiedekunnasta ja kustoksena professori Eero Mervaala Helsingin yliopiston Lääketieteellisestä tiedekunnasta.

Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

Acute renal failure in critically ill patients : With special reference to prediction of outcome

Acute renal failure (ARF) is a clinical syndrome characterized by rapidly decreasing glomerular filtration rate, which results in disturbances in electrolyte- and acid-base homeostasis, derangement of extracellular fluid volume, and retention of nitrogenous waste products, and is often associated with decreased urine output. ARF affects about 5-25% of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), and is linked to high mortality and morbidity rates. In this thesis outcome of critically ill patients with ARF and factors related to outcome were evaluated. A total of 1662 patients from two ICUs and one acute dialysis unit in Helsinki University Hospital were included. In study I the prevalence of ARF was calculated and classified according to two ARF-specific scoring methods, the RIFLE classification and the classification created by Bellomo et al. (2001). Study II evaluated monocyte human histocompatibility leukocyte antigen-DR (HLA-DR) expression and plasma levels of one proinflammatory (interleukin (IL) 6) and two anti-inflammatory (IL-8 and IL-10) cytokines in predicting survival of critically ill ARF patients. Study III investigated serum cystatin C as a marker of renal function in ARF and its power in predicting survival of critically ill ARF patients. Study IV evaluated the effect of intermittent hemodiafiltration (HDF) on myoglobin elimination from plasma in severe rhabdomyolysis. Study V assessed long-term survival and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in ARF patients. Neither of the ARF-specific scoring methods presented good discriminative power regarding hospital mortality. The maximum RIFLE score for the first three days in the ICU was an independent predictor of hospital mortality. As a marker of renal dysfunction, serum cystatin C failed to show benefit compared with plasma creatinine in detecting ARF or predicting patient survival. Neither cystatin C nor plasma concentrations of IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10, nor monocyte HLA-DR expression were clinically useful in predicting mortality in ARF patients. HDF may be used to clear myoglobin from plasma in rhabdomyolysis, especially if the alkalization of diuresis does not succeed. The long-term survival of patients with ARF was found to be poor. The HRQoL of those who survive is lower than that of the age- and gender-matched general population.